ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION (C-NA1-

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001585 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION (C-NA1- 00316) REF: A) STATE 73228, B) HARARE 1495, C) HARARE 930, D) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01585 111109Z 00 HARARE 5951 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) BELOW ARE EMBASSY HARARE'S RESPONSES TO REF A TASKING QUESTIONS: ¶A. (C) IT IS OUR ASSESSMENT THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE IS NO LONGER SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING A DEAL WITH THE OPPOSITION MDC THAT WOULD INCLUDE HIS EARLY RETIREMENT. (REF D SUGGESTED THAT LATE LAST YEAR MUGABE PUT OUT FEELERS TO THE OPPOSITION FOR SOME KIND OF POWER-SHARING OR RETIREMENT DEAL.) WE BELIEVE THAT IF THE MDC LEADERSHIP APPROACHED MUGABE NOW WITH SUCH AN OFFER, HE WOULD PROBABLY REJECT IT OUT OF HAND. MUGABE IS DETERMINED TO WIN ANOTHER TERM AND IS CONVINCED HE CAN DO IT. MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON ZVOBGO TOLD US MAY 10 THAT THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD INDUCE MUGABE TO LEAVE OFFICE EARLY WOULD BE FOR A NUMBER OF PROMINENT ZANU-PF STALWARTS TO PUBLICLY STAND UP TO MUGABE AND TELL HIM HE MUST GO. IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, WE FIND THIS SCENARIO HIGHLY UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION, WE CANNOT CONCEIVE OF ANY CONDITIONS THAT MUGABE WOULD VOLUNTARILY ACCEPT THAT WOULD INDUCE HIM TO ABANDON HIS RE-ELECTION BID. HOWEVER, ZANU-PF IS STILL DIVIDED OVER THE DESIRABILITY OF RETAINING MUGABE AS ITS CANDIDATE. THE SMALL COTERIE OF HARDLINERS SURROUNDING MUGABE, SUCH AS INFORMATION MINISTER MOYO AND VICE-PRESIDENTS MSIKA AND MUZENDA, WISH TO SEE MUGABE RUN AGAIN, BUT MANY IN THE PARTY BELIEVE IT WILL BE ZANU-PF'S UNDOING. REFORM- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01585 111109Z MINDED MEMBERS, SUCH AS FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI AND FORMER HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA, WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY LIKE TO SEE MUGABE BOW OUT OF THE RACE, AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT BEFORE OR AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ¶B. (C) WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY CREDIBLE REPORTS OF MUGABE ACTIVELY MOVING PERSONAL OR STATE ASSETS OUT OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, MUGABE HAS NEARLY FINISHED A NEW MULTI-MILLION-DOLLAR MANSION -- MOSTLY FINANCED BY ZANU- PF -- IN THE BORROWDALE SUBURB OF HARARE, A SIGN HE INTENDS TO STAY FOR SOME TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND, LATE LAST YEAR, WE WERE TOLD BY INDEPENDENT SOURCES THAT FURNITURE BELONGING TO THE PRESIDENT WAS SEEN BOXED UP AT HARARE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EN ROUTE TO EITHER LIBYA OR EUROPE. THIS STORY FALLS IN THE CATEGORY OF RUMOR, HOWEVER, AND IS NOT A FIRM INDICATION OF MUGABE INTENDING TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY PERMANENTLY. WE DO HEAR STORIES OF SENIOR GOVERNMENT AND PARTY OFFICIALS LOOKING FOR SCHOOLS IN THE U.S. INTO WHICH THEY CAN PLACE THEIR CHILDREN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS, AN INDICATOR THAT THEY THINK THE SITUATION WILL WORSEN. TO PAY FOR THIS, THERE MUST BE SOME ASSET MOVEMENT OUT OF THE COUNTRY. IN ADDITION, THE BRITISH AIRWAYS FLIGHTS TO LONDON ARE ALWAYS FULL, AND PEOPLE BOARDING THEM SEEM TO BE IN POSSESSION OF MUCH MORE THAN ORDINARY LUGGAGE. ¶C. (C) AS FOR THE MDC, IT CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY CAMPAIGN FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT IN A MORE LOW-KEY STYLE, AND IT TAKES PAINS TO AVOID ANTAGONIZING ZANU-PF (SEE REFS B AND C FOR DETAILS ON THE MDC'S CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01585 111109Z STRATEGY.) IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE MDC WOULD REACT TO A MUGABE VICTORY: MANY IN THE PARTY STILL HAVE NOT SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED THIS POSSIBILITY AND THERE DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >