ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS MEET WITH GOZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001293

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/11
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS MEET WITH GOZ
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SECURITY SERVICES TO DISCUSS LAND REFORM

REFS: A. HARARE 1276, B. HARARE 1102

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B/D).


1. (C) ON APRIL 10 EDGAR GUNDRY, CHAIRMAN FOR THE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) REGION OF MASHONALAND
WEST-SOUTH, TOLD ECONOFF THAT A GROUP OF CFU OFFICIALS
MET ON APRIL 9 WITH ZIMBABWE'S FIVE SECURITY SERVICES.
THESE SERVICES, ACCORDING TO GUNDRY, ARE THE PRESIDENT'S
OFFICE, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION, THE
ZIMBABWE REPUBLIC POLICE, THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL ARMY,
AND THE ZIMBABWE AIR FORCE. THE PURPOSE OF THIS MEETING
WAS FOR THE CFU TEAM TO PRESENT THEIR "FARMING INTO THE
FUTURE" PLAN, A BLUEPRINT AGREED TO AT THE CFU SPECIAL
CONGRESS HELD IN MARCH (REF B). GUNDRY DID NOT KNOW THE
NAMES OF THE OFFICIALS WHO HAD REPRESENTED EACH OF THE
SECURITY SERVICES, BUT SAID THAT THE PRESENTATION WAS
VIDEOTAPED BY SECURITY OFFICIALS. HE BELIEVED THIS WAS
DONE SO THAT THE PRESENTATION COULD BE VIEWED BY
PRESIDENT MUGABE.


2. (C) GUNDRY WAS INFORMED BY THE CFU EXECUTIVE THAT THE
PRESENTATION WAS RECEIVED POSITIVELY BY THE FIVE
SECURITY SERVICE REPRESENTATIVES. HOWEVER, THE CFU TEAM
WAS ALSO TOLD BY ONE, APPARENTLY IN REFERENCE TO THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE, THAT "YOU
CREATED A MONSTER, AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO FORGET THAT.
WE WILL FORGIVE YOU AND MOVE ON, BUT WE WILL NOT FORGET
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THAT."


3. (C) GUNDRY SAID THAT THE MEETING WITH THE SECURITY
SERVICES WAS PART OF THE CFU'S ONGOING EFFORT TO QUIETLY
RE-ENGAGE THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ON THE LAND
ISSUE (REF A). AS PART OF THIS STRATEGY, GUNDRY
REVEALED THAT THE CFU TEAM WAS SCHEDULED TO MEET ON
APRIL 10 WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON LAND TO
PRESENT THE CFU PLAN. GUNDRY HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE CFU
EXECUTIVE THAT THE GOZ OFFICIALS WHO HAVE BEEN PRESENTED
THE PLAN HAVE REACTED FAVORABLY TO IT, BUT THAT NONE OF
THESE OFFICIALS HAS THE AUTHORITY TO ACCEPT THE PLAN AS
A WAY FORWARD ON THE LAND ISSUE. IT IS CLEAR, GUNDRY
ADDED, THAT THE FINAL DECISION LIES WITH ONE PERSON --
PRESIDENT MUGABE.


4. (C) COMMENT: THE CONTINUING QUIET MEETINGS BETWEEN
THE CFU AND THE GOZ ARE POSITIVE INDICATORS. IT IS
CLEAR TO ALL THAT THE GOZ'S "FAST TRACK" LAND
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM IS GETTING NOWHERE FAST. OUR BEST
GUESS, THROUGH TALKING TO COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND
BUSINESSES, AND TRACKING PRESS REPORTS, IS THAT NO MORE
THAN 5,000 FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED NATIONWIDE UNDER
"FAST TRACK". (NOTE: THE WORLD BANK ESTIMATES A TOTAL
OF 27,000 PEOPLE IN THESE 5,000 FAMILIES. THIS
CONTRASTS WITH THE LATEST GOZ CLAIM OF 80,000 FAMILIES
RESETTLED.) THE RESETTLEMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED HAS
ENTAILED GIVING PEOPLE A PIECE OF LAND ON AN OCCUPIED
FARM, AND PROVIDING NO OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE OR SUPPORT
SERVICES. GIVEN THAT THE GOZ HAS NO RESOURCES TO FUND A
REAL RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, THE CURRENT FREEFALL IN THE
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ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY, AND THE CENTRAL ROLE THAT WHITE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS PLAY IN THE ECONOMY, THE PRESSURE IS
MOUNTING ON PRESIDENT MUGABE TO REACH A COMPROMISE ON
THE LAND ISSUE. HOWEVER, POLITICAL GAIN FROM THE LAND
ISSUE REMAINS THE OVERRIDING CONCERN FOR MUGABE. HE
WILL NOT AGREE TO A COMPROMISE WITH THE CFU AND WHITE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNLESS IT ALLOWS HIM A WAY TO
PROCLAIM VICTORY ON THE LAND ISSUE AND USE THIS TO
BOLSTER THE RULING PARTY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. OUR
VIEW IS THAT THERE IS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE MUGABE WILL
TAKE THIS OPTION. END COMMENT.

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