ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS MEET WITH GOZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001293 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/11 TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS MEET WITH GOZ CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01293 111239Z SECURITY SERVICES TO DISCUSS LAND REFORM REFS: A. HARARE 1276, B. HARARE 1102 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D). ¶1. (C) ON APRIL 10 EDGAR GUNDRY, CHAIRMAN FOR THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) REGION OF MASHONALAND WEST-SOUTH, TOLD ECONOFF THAT A GROUP OF CFU OFFICIALS MET ON APRIL 9 WITH ZIMBABWE'S FIVE SECURITY SERVICES. THESE SERVICES, ACCORDING TO GUNDRY, ARE THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION, THE ZIMBABWE REPUBLIC POLICE, THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL ARMY, AND THE ZIMBABWE AIR FORCE. THE PURPOSE OF THIS MEETING WAS FOR THE CFU TEAM TO PRESENT THEIR "FARMING INTO THE FUTURE" PLAN, A BLUEPRINT AGREED TO AT THE CFU SPECIAL CONGRESS HELD IN MARCH (REF B). GUNDRY DID NOT KNOW THE NAMES OF THE OFFICIALS WHO HAD REPRESENTED EACH OF THE SECURITY SERVICES, BUT SAID THAT THE PRESENTATION WAS VIDEOTAPED BY SECURITY OFFICIALS. HE BELIEVED THIS WAS DONE SO THAT THE PRESENTATION COULD BE VIEWED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE. ¶2. (C) GUNDRY WAS INFORMED BY THE CFU EXECUTIVE THAT THE PRESENTATION WAS RECEIVED POSITIVELY BY THE FIVE SECURITY SERVICE REPRESENTATIVES. HOWEVER, THE CFU TEAM WAS ALSO TOLD BY ONE, APPARENTLY IN REFERENCE TO THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE, THAT "YOU CREATED A MONSTER, AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO FORGET THAT. WE WILL FORGIVE YOU AND MOVE ON, BUT WE WILL NOT FORGET CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01293 111239Z THAT." ¶3. (C) GUNDRY SAID THAT THE MEETING WITH THE SECURITY SERVICES WAS PART OF THE CFU'S ONGOING EFFORT TO QUIETLY RE-ENGAGE THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ON THE LAND ISSUE (REF A). AS PART OF THIS STRATEGY, GUNDRY REVEALED THAT THE CFU TEAM WAS SCHEDULED TO MEET ON APRIL 10 WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON LAND TO PRESENT THE CFU PLAN. GUNDRY HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE CFU EXECUTIVE THAT THE GOZ OFFICIALS WHO HAVE BEEN PRESENTED THE PLAN HAVE REACTED FAVORABLY TO IT, BUT THAT NONE OF THESE OFFICIALS HAS THE AUTHORITY TO ACCEPT THE PLAN AS A WAY FORWARD ON THE LAND ISSUE. IT IS CLEAR, GUNDRY ADDED, THAT THE FINAL DECISION LIES WITH ONE PERSON -- PRESIDENT MUGABE. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: THE CONTINUING QUIET MEETINGS BETWEEN THE CFU AND THE GOZ ARE POSITIVE INDICATORS. IT IS CLEAR TO ALL THAT THE GOZ'S "FAST TRACK" LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM IS GETTING NOWHERE FAST. OUR BEST GUESS, THROUGH TALKING TO COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND BUSINESSES, AND TRACKING PRESS REPORTS, IS THAT NO MORE THAN 5,000 FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED NATIONWIDE UNDER "FAST TRACK". (NOTE: THE WORLD BANK ESTIMATES A TOTAL OF 27,000 PEOPLE IN THESE 5,000 FAMILIES. THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE LATEST GOZ CLAIM OF 80,000 FAMILIES RESETTLED.) THE RESETTLEMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED HAS ENTAILED GIVING PEOPLE A PIECE OF LAND ON AN OCCUPIED FARM, AND PROVIDING NO OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE OR SUPPORT SERVICES. GIVEN THAT THE GOZ HAS NO RESOURCES TO FUND A REAL RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, THE CURRENT FREEFALL IN THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01293 111239Z ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY, AND THE CENTRAL ROLE THAT WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS PLAY IN THE ECONOMY, THE PRESSURE IS MOUNTING ON PRESIDENT MUGABE TO REACH A COMPROMISE ON THE LAND ISSUE. HOWEVER, POLITICAL GAIN FROM THE LAND ISSUE REMAINS THE OVERRIDING CONCERN FOR MUGABE. HE WILL NOT AGREE TO A COMPROMISE WITH THE CFU AND WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNLESS IT ALLOWS HIM A WAY TO PROCLAIM VICTORY ON THE LAND ISSUE AND USE THIS TO BOLSTER THE RULING PARTY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. OUR VIEW IS THAT THERE IS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE MUGABE WILL TAKE THIS OPTION. END COMMENT. CONFIDENTIAL >