C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

REF: HARARE 114

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5
(B) AND (D).
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PAGE 02 HARARE 00125 01 OF 03 091359Z

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE INDEPENDENT PRESS HAS
CRITICIZED THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE
(MDC) FOR FUMBLING ALONG WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF URGENCY OR
DIRECTION. MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHQ NCUBQTRONGLY
REJECTED THE CRITICISM, SAYING SOME WERE UNDERSTANDABLY
FRUSTRATED WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMY AND
CONTINUED GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED LAWLESSNESS, AND WITH THE
OPPOSITION PARTY'S INABILITY TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. HE
INSISTED THAT THE PARTY WAS ORGANIZING ENERGETICALLY IN
RUQL AREAS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION. MDC MP TENDAI BITI ADMITTED THAT THE MDC HAD
BEEN ADRIFT FROM SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER, BUT CLAIMED
THAT IT HAD AWAKENED FROM ITS SLUMBER. SINCE IT WON 57
SEATS IN PARLIAMENT IN JUNE 2000, THE MDC APPEARS TO HAVE
GAINED MIDDLE CLASS SUPPORT, AND SOME RURAL AREAS, WHERE
MANY ANGRY RESIDENTS WERE UNABLE TO AFFORD BREAD DURING THE
HOLIDAY SEASON, ARE PROVING TO BE INCREASINGLY FERTILE
GROUND. AT THE SAME TIME, IN ORDER TO ASSUAGE SUPPORTERS
FRUSTRATED ABOUT THE LACK OF CHANGE, THE MDC MUST DO A
BETTER JOB OF EXPLAINING TO ITS SUPPORTERS THE LIMITED ROLE
IT CAN PLAY AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY. END SUMMARY.

MDC ADRIFT?...
--------------


2. (U) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) HAS BEEN STRONGLY CRITICIZED IN THE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00125 01 OF 03 091359Z
INDEPENDENT MEDIA FOR NOT ENERGETICALLY CONSOLIDATING ITS
SUPPORT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS. IN LATE DECEMBER, THE INFLUENTIAL WEEKLY "THE
FINANCIAL GAZETTE" CARRIED A STINGING FRONT PAGE STORY
URGING THE MDC TO SHAPE UP OR TO GO. THE ARTICLE ACCUSED

THE OPPOSITION PARTY OF FUMBLING ALONG WITHOUT ANY SENSE OF
URGENCY OR DIRECTION, OF MAKING ILL-CONSIDERED PUBLIC
STATEMENTS, AND OF LETTING ITS SUPPORTERS DOWN BY FAILING
TO PURSUE ITS LONG-PROMISED MASS ACTION. ON JANUARY 3,
THE "DAILY NEWS" CARRIED A SCATHING POLITICAL CARTOON
ENTITLED "PREPARING FOR ELECTION 2002." IT PORTRAYED THE
MDC AS A FAT MAN IN A DEEP SLUMBER OVER A SIGN SAYING "DO
NOT DISTURB, WE ONLY WAKE UP WHEN THERE IS BOOING TO DO IN
PARLIAMENT." ZANU-PF, ON THE OTHER HAND, WAS PORTRAYED AS
A MUSCLE-BOUND MAN LIFTING WEIGHTS INTENSIVELY IN
PREPARATION FOR 2002.

...WHILE MUGABE CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF ZANU-PF
-------------- --


3. (C) WHILE THE MDC APPEARED TO BE STUMBLING, PRESIDENT
MUGABE WAS BUSY CONSOLIDATING HIS CONTROL OVER THE RULING
PARTY. HE USED ZANU-PF'S EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS IN
DECEMBER TO QUASH GROWING DISSENT WITH HIS LEADERSHIP,
ELEVATING TO THE PARTY'S SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY CLOSE
ALLIES SUCH AS PARLIAMENT SPEAKER EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI, AND EXPELLING
THOSE, SUCH AS EDDISON ZVOBGO, WHOSE LOYALTIES TO MUGABE
WERE WANING. MUGABE ALSO SQUELCHED ANY POTENTIAL
CHALLENGES TO HIM AS THE PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN

2002. MUGABE'S SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF HIS CONTROL
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00125 01 OF 03 091359Z
OVER THE RULING PARTY, COMBINED WITH THE PARTY'S VICTORY IN
THE SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN MARONDERA IN NOVEMBER
(ALBEIT A VICTORY ACHIEVED THROUGH VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION) CONTRIBUTED TO A PUBLIC PERCEPTION THAT ZANU-
PF HAD REGAINED A DEGREE OF POLITICAL MOMENTUM.

CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS
--------------


4. (C) MUCH OF THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA'S CRITICISM OF THE
MDC IS ROOTED IN A GENUINE FRUSTRATION THAT, DESPITE THE
MDC'S WINNING NEARLY HALF THE CONTESTED SEATS IN
PARLIAMENT, THE ECONOMY HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND
GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED LAWLESSNESS IN RURAL AREAS HAS
CONTINUED UNABATED. OUR MDC CONTACTS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
SOME OF THE CRITICISM WAS JUSTIFIED, BUT POINTED OUT THAT
IT IS SIMPLY UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT AN OPPOSITION PARTY
WITHOUT ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT RESOURCES -- AND IN DIRE
FINANCIAL STRAITS ITSELF -- TO DELIVER JOBS, BETTER ROADS,
AND HEALTH CARE. MOREOVER, THESE CONTACTS INSISTED, THE
MDC IS NOW WORKING ENERGETICALLY THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY TO

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5113

PAGE 01 HARARE 00125 02 OF 03 091359Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00
SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
-------------- B40202 091359Z /38
P 091359Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7971
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

PREPARE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.


5. (C) TENDAI BITI, WHO REPRESENTS THE MDC IN PARLIAMENT
AND SERVES AS THE PARTY'S SHADOW FOREIGN MINISTER,
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PAGE 02 HARARE 00125 02 OF 03 091359Z
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PARTY EXPERIENCED A SLUMP FROM
SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR. HE ATTRIBUTED THE
SLUMP TO EXHAUSTION IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS AND TO A CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP, RESULTING FROM THE
ELECTION OF MANY OF THE MDC'S MOST CAPABLE LEADERS TO
PARLIAMENT, AN INSTITUTION WHICH CONSUMED THEIR ATTENTION
AND ALLOWED LITTLE TIME FOR GRASS-ROOTS PARTY-BUILDING.
IN ADDITION, BITI CRITICIZED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI FOR TAKING A NUMBER OF FOREIGN TRIPS THAT WERE

SIPDIS
NOT SANCTIONED BY THE PARTY AND DID NOT APPEAR TO HAVE
CLEAR OBJECTIVES. HE SINGLED OUT FOR PARTICULAR CRITICISM
TSVANGIRAI'S MEETING WITH RENAMO LEADER DHLAKAMA IN SOUTH

SIPDIS
AFRICA, CALLING IT "COMPLETELY PREMATURE." BITI ALSO
CRITICIZED SOME OF HIS MDC PARLIAMENTARY COLLEAGUES FOR NOT
MEETING FREQUENTLY ENOUGH WITH THEIR CONSTITUENTS.


6. (C) THE MDC IS CURRENTLY HAVING TO WALK A VERY NARROW
TIGHTROPE. IF THE PARTY MOVES TOO AGGRESSIVELY IN
ORGANIZING MASS ACTION INTENDED TO PRESSURE PRESIDENT
MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, THE GOVERNMENT ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD
RESPOND WITH OVERWHELMING FORCE, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
BLOODSHED AND PROVIDING A PRETEXT TO CLOSE DOWN THE MDC,
WHICH COULD SET BACK THE PARTY'S DEVELOPMENT SEVERAL YEARS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE OPPOSITION PARTY MOVES TOO SLOWLY
IN PRESSING FOR CHANGE, IT RISKS ALIENATING ITS SUPPORTERS.
THE BEST WAY TO NEGOTIATE THAT TIGHTROPE SUCCESSFULLY, BITI
BELIEVED, IS TO RETURN TO BASICS BY IDENTIFYING THE ISSUES
OF CORE CONCERN TO ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS -- THE ECONOMY,
INCLUDING THE LAND ISSUE, MISGOVERNANCE, AND THE NEED FOR
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM -- AND TO COMMUNICATE REGULARLY WITH
VOTERS A CLEAR MDC POSITION ON THOSE ISSUES. BITI NOTED
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00125 02 OF 03 091359Z
THAT THE MDC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAD AGREED TO
FORM FOR EACH PROVINCE OUTREACH TEAMS CHARGED WITH TAKING
THE MDC'S MESSAGE TO RURAL ZIMBABWEANS.


7. (C) IN A JANUARY 5 CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF, MDC
SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE STRONGLY DISAGREED WITH

SIPDIS
THE ASSESSMENT THAT THE MDC IS RESTING ON ITS LAURELS. HE
ATTRIBUTED THAT PERCEPTION PRIMARILY TO INDEPENDENT MEDIA
JOURNALISTS WHO, HE SAID, HAD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FRUSTRATED WITH THE MDC'S INABILITY TO EFFECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GOVERNMENT'S DISASTROUS POLICIES.
NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY COULD HAVE
DONE A BETTER JOB OF COMMUNICATING WITH THE MEDIA, AND WAS
MOVING TO ADDRESS THIS SHORTCOMING BY ORGANIZING MEETINGS
BETWEEN THE SENIOR MDC LEADERSHIP AND THE EDITORS OF THE
MAJOR INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS. NCUBE REGRETTED THAT
"CARELESS" STATEMENTS BY MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI
HAD PROVIDED RICH FODDER FOR CRITICISM, PARTICULARLY
TSVANGIRAI'S PREDICTION THAT MUGABE WOULD BE OUT OF OFFICE

SIPDIS
BY DECEMBER 2000.


8. (C) NCUBE INSISTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE MDC HAD WORKED
SUCCESSFULLY TO STRENGTHEN ITS SUPPORT SINCE THE
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS LAST JUNE. HE AND PARTY VICE-
PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, HE SAID, HAD SPENT EVERY WEEKEND
SINCE JUNE IN CITIES AND TOWNS THROUGHOUT ZIMBABWE CARRYING
THE MDC'S MESSAGE, AND HE HAD OBSERVED A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THE NUMBERS AND DIVERSITY OF PEOPLE AT THEIR
RALLIES. AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE PARTY'S GROWING
ORGANIZATIONAL STRENGTH, NCUBE POINTED OUT THAT THE MDC NOW
HAS IN PLACE IN MOST OF ZIMBABWE'S EIGHT PROVINCES
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00125 02 OF 03 091359Z
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES AT THE VILLAGE, WARD, AND CAPITAL CITY
LEVELS.

MASVINGO KEY PROVINCE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
-------------- -


9. (C) ACCORDING TO NCUBE, THE MDC IS NOW FOCUSING
INTENSIVELY ON BUILDING SUPPORT FOR THE UPCOMING
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THE MDC BELIEVES IT CURRENTLY
ENJOYS 90% SUPPORT IN MATABELELAND NORTH AND MATABELELAND
SOUTH, 55-65% SUPPORT IN MIDLANDS, 60-70% IN MANICALAND,
AND 50% IN MASVINGO. THE PARTY HOPES IT CAN WIN 35-40% OF
THE VOTES IN ZANU-PF'S STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND EAST,
WEST, AND CENTRAL, BUT NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THAT WOULD BE AN
UPHILL STRUGGLE, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE GOVERNMENT'S TACTIC
OF INTIMIDATING OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS INTO STAYING AWAY
FROM THE POLLS. IN THE END, NCUBE IS CONVINCED THAT
MASVINGO WILL BE THE KEY BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE, AS IT IS
THE MOST POPULOUS AND BECAUSE THE RECENT EXPULSION OF
NATIVE SON POLITICIAN EDDISON ZVOBGO FROM THE ZANU-PF
POLITBURO MIGHT NUDGE FENCE-SITTING VOTERS INTO THE MDC

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5115

PAGE 01 HARARE 00125 03 OF 03 091400Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00
SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W
-------------- B40221 091400Z /38
P 091359Z JAN 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7972
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000125

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/08/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION STRUGGLES TO COPE WITH
CRISIS OF EXPECTATIONS

CAMP.

MDC GAINING STRENGTH
--------------
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PAGE 02 HARARE 00125 03 OF 03 091400Z


10. (C) INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THE PARTY REMAINS
POPULAR, ALTHOUGH THE MDC HAS MUCH WORK TO DO TO
CONSOLIDATE ITS GAINS OF LAST JUNE. UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE
POLITICAL SCIENTIST JOHN MAKUMBE MAINTAINS THAT THE MDC HAS
GAINED STRENGTH SINCE JUNE. ACCORDING TO MAKUMBE, MANY
ZIMBABWEANS WHO SYMPATHIZED WITH THE MDC DID NOT VOTE FOR
IT BECAUSE THEY DID NOT THINK IT STOOD A CHANCE, AND WERE
GREATLY SURPRISED WHEN THE PARTY WON 57 SEATS. AS A RESULT
OF THE MDC'S ELECTORAL SUCCESS, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF
VOTERS ARE NOW CONVINCED THAT THE PARTY PROVIDES A CREDIBLE
ALTERNATIVE TO THE CURRENT REGIME. IN PARTICULAR, THE MDC
IS GAINING GROUND AMONG THE MIDDLE CLASS, WHICH DURING THE
PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN WAS SKEPTICAL OF MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S
INTELLECTUAL HEFT, BUT IS NOW CONVINCED AFTER THE "ANNUS
HORRIBILIS" OF 2000 THAT "EVEN AN IDIOT WOULD BE BETTER
THAN MUGABE." MAKUMBE CONTENDED THAT THE MDC IS BEGINNING
TO ATTRACT SUPPORT FROM BLACK AND WHITE ZIMBABWEAN
BUSINESSMEN LIVING ABROAD WHO HAVE BEEN CONVINCED THAT THE
PARTY WOULD PURSUE RATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES, AND TO MAKE
INROADS WITH INCREASINGLY ANGRY RURAL RESIDENTS, MANY OF
WHOM COULD NOT EVEN AFFORD TO BUY BREAD DURING THE HOLIDAY
SEASON. IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO MAKUMBE, THE MDC IS
DEMONSTRATING MATURITY BY TRYING TO WOO THE ARMY, BOTH VIA
PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANT ROLE OF THE MILITARY,
AND IN QUIET BEHIND-THE-SCENES DISCUSSIONS.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) FOR AN OPPOSITION PARTY THAT IS LITTLE MORE THAN A
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00125 03 OF 03 091400Z
YEAR OLD, THE MDC HAS ACHIEVED SOME IMPRESSIVE INROADS. IT
CONVINCED VOTERS TO REJECT A DRAFT CONSTITUTION THAT WOULD
HAVE FURTHER STRENGTHENED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS. IT WON 57
OF THE 120 CONTESTED SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, BREATHING NEW
LIFE INTO AN INSTITUTION THAT HAD BEEN MERELY A RUBBER
STAMP FOR THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH, SUBJECTING THE GOVERNMENT
TO SCRUTINY AND GENERATING A NEW INTEREST IN PARLIAMENT AND
POLITICS. THE MDC HAS PROVIDED AN ALTERNATIVE VOICE TO
ZANU-PF, AND PARLIAMENT HAS PROVIDED LEGITIMACY TO THAT
VOICE. ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, -- THE
FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE -- IS BEING CONDUCTED
EXTRANEOUS TO PARLIAMENT -- AND, INDEED, THE JUDICIAL
BRANCH -- AS GOVERNMENT RESOURCES ARE OSTENSIBLY BEING
DEPLOYED IN SUPPORT OF THE LAWLESSNESS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS.
IT IS IMPERATIVE FOR THE MDC'S OWN RELEVANCE THAT THE PARTY
SHIFT THE DEBATE ON LAND BACK INTO PARLIAMENT. SHINING A
SPOTLIGHT ON THE DELETERIOUS IMPACT OF THE FAST TRACK
APPROACH ON THE ECONOMY AND THE RULE OF LAW, AND OFFERING A
CLEAR, RATIONAL ALTERNATIVE PROGRAM WOULD HAVE A POWERFUL
RESONANCE WITH THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO
ARE FED UP WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S POLITICAL MANIPULATION OF
THE LAND ISSUE.


12. (C) THE MDC REMAINS POPULAR, AS FRUSTRATION MOUNTS IN
MOST SECTORS OF ZIMBABWE'S POPULATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S
POLICIES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MDC LEADERSHIP RECOGNIZES
THAT, IF IT INTENDS TO REMAIN VIABLE AND REGAIN POLITICAL
MOMENTUM, IT HAS SOME PUBLIC RELATIONS WORK TO DO WITH ITS
SUPPORTERS -- VIA THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, WORD OF MOUTH, AND
REGULAR MEETINGS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY -- IN EXPLAINING
WHAT ROLE IT CAN PLAY AS AN OPPOSITION PARTY AND THAT IT
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00125 03 OF 03 091400Z
CANNOT BRING THE KIND OF CHANGE THEY ARE DEMANDING WHILE IN
THE MINORITY.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

>