C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001079

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA

E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/21/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ZI US
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT
MIGHT PLAY INTO MUGABE'S HANDS

REF: HARARE 1058

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PAGE 02 HARARE 01079 211013Z
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5
(B) AND (D).

MEDIA COVERAGE
--------------


1. (U) IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AS REPORTED REFTEL, TWO OF
ZIMBABWE'S INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS HAVE DEVOTED PROMINENT
COVERAGE TO THE MARCH 8 INTRODUCTION IN THE U.S. SENATE OF
THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA).
ALTHOUGH THE ACCOUNTS IN BOTH PAPERS WERE GENERALLY
FACTUAL, THEY BOTH EMPHASIZED THAT THE BILL SEEKS TO PUNISH
PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF LAW BY
IMPOSING TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS AND FREEZING THEIR ASSETS.
NEITHER ARTICLE CLARIFIED THAT THE CALLS FOR TRAVEL
RESTRICTIONS AND ASSET-FREEZING ARE CONTAINED IN THE NON-
BINDING SENSE OF CONGRESS SECTION. THE GOVERNMENT-
CONTROLLED PRINT AND BROADCAST MEDIA HAVE NOT TO DATE
CARRIED A SINGLE STORY ON THE ZDERA, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
THIS SILENCE TO LAST MUCH LONGER.

REACTIONS
--------------


2. (C) THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT RAISED WITH US DIRECTLY ITS
CONCERNS ABOUT THE ZDERA, BUT PROBABLY ONLY BECAUSE IT HAS
BEEN CONSUMED BY OTHER BUSINESS. IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF
TIME BEFORE THE GOZ FOCUSES ON THIS ISSUE AND CONVOKES THE
CHARGE TO CONVEY -- IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS -- ITS CONCERNS
ABOUT THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION. IN THE COURSE OF A MEETING
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ON ANOTHER TOPIC ON MARCH 20, THE CHIEF OF PROTOCOL OF THE
MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SUGGESTED TO CHARGE THAT THE
ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT WOULD CALL ON THE U.S. TO "BE FAIR"
WITH ZIMBABWE AND NOT SINGLE IT OUT FOR RUIN BY IMPOSING
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. HE WONDERED WHY THE UNITED STATES,
VIEWED BY ZIMBABWE AS A FRIEND, SEEMED TO BE FOLLOWING
"BRITISH INSTRUCTIONS." A NUMBER OF OUR DIPLOMATIC
CONTACTS HERE, INCLUDING THE WORLD BANK, HAVE EXPRESSED AN
INTEREST IN THE LIKELY PROSPECTS OF THE ZDERA. CIVIL
SOCIETY GENERALLY WELCOMES IT AS A SIGN THAT THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY GENERALLY -- AND THE UNITED STATES
SPECIFICALLY -- CARES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IN ZIMBABWE. IN
THE VIEW OF MANY OF OUR PRIVATE CONTACTS, ONLY
INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE OF THE KIND ENVISIONED BY THE ZDERA
CAN FORCE MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES TO RESTORE THE RULE OF
LAW.

COMMENT
--------------


3. (C) WHILE WE STRONGLY AGREE THAT ONLY INTERNATIONAL AND
REGIONAL PRESSURE ON THE MUGABE REGIME WILL BE EFFECTIVE IN
HALTING ZIMBABWE'S SLIDE TOWARD POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
DESTRUCTION, WE WISH TO POINT OUT THAT THE ZDERA MIGHT HAVE
THE OPPOSITE EFFECT. MUGABE AND HIS CABINET ARE LIKELY TO
EMPLOY A TIME-TESTED TACTIC IN PORTRAYING THE BILL AS
ANOTHER UNJUST TOOL OF WESTERN, PRO-BRITISH INTERESTS, AND
PROBABLY LABEL IT AS RACIST INTERFERENCE. FM MUDENGE TOLD
FORMER AMBASSADOR MCDONALD LAST JULY THAT THE ZIMBABWE
DEMOCRACY ACT (WHICH DIED IN COMMITTEE IN THE HOUSE DURING
THE PREVIOUS CONGRESSIONAL SESSION) HAD SET THE GOZ ON A
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WAR FOOTING AND THAT THEY WOULD FIGHT US ON IT WITH ALL
MEANS AT THEIR DISPOSAL. WE ANTICIPATE SIMILAR BLUSTERY
RHETORIC -- IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE -- ONCE THE CURRENT BILL
BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SENATE. IN ADDITION, THE ZDERA
COULD WEAKEN THE GROWING INCLINATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC) -- PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AFRICA -- TO TAKE A TOUGHER LINE WITH ZIMBABWE, IF THEY
FEEL OBLIGATED TO RALLY AROUND MUGABE IN THE NAME OF
REGIONAL SOLIDARITY. THOUGH WE AT POST SHARE FULLY THE
CONCERNS EXPRESSED IN THE ZDERA, WE ARE DUTY-BOUND TO
PROVIDE OUR ASSESSMENT THAT THE BILL MAY BECOME, AT LEAST
IN THE NEAR TERM, ANOTHER PROPAGANDA TOOL FOR MUGABE IN HIS
EFFORT TO HOLD ONTO POWER BY WHATEVER MEANS NECESSARY. ONE
WAY TO MITIGATE THE GOZ'S LIKELY DEMONIZATION OF THE UNITED
STATES IS FOR US TO CONDUCT A VERY PUBLIC EFFORT TO
COORDINATE OUR APPROACH TOWARD ZIMBABWE WITH THE COMMUNITY
OF NATIONS.
IRVING

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