POLITBURO MEMBERS WERE PORTRAYED AS UNITED IN OFFICIAL MEDIA IN RUN-UP TO PARTY CONGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HANOI 000985

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: POLITBURO MEMBERS WERE PORTRAYED AS UNITED IN OFFICIAL MEDIA IN RUN-UP TO PARTY CONGRESS

REF: A) HANOI 965 B) HANOI 952


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO;
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION: OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS, IN
THE RUN-UP TO THE JUST-COMPLETED NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY
CONGRESS, VIETNAM'S OUTGOING POLITBURO MEMBERS WERE
PORTRAYED IN STATE-CONTROLLED MEDIA AS UNITED IN THE
PARTY'S EFFORTS TO RALLY SUPPORT FOR THE PROGRAM OF THE
CONGRESS. BEHIND THE SCENES, THOUGH, A FIERCE INTERNAL
STRUGGLE RAGED THAT RESULTED IN THE REPLACEMENT OF GENERAL
SECRETARY PHIEU AND SIX OTHER POLITBURO MEMBERS (REFTELS).

SIPDIS
DURING THIS PERIOD, ALL SENIOR LEADERS JOURNEYED AROUND THE
COUNTRY TO ATTEND PROVINCIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL CONGRESSES.
SOME OF THESE LEADERS, SUCH AS DEPUTY PM CAM AND HO CHI
MINH ACADEMY HEAD BINH, CLEARLY RECOGNIZED AND ACCEPTED
THEY WERE WINDING UP THEIR POLITBURO CAREERS. OTHERS,
HOWEVER, SUCH AS PHIEU, FATHERLAND FRONT LEADER DUYET,
DEFENSE MINISTER TRA, AND ARMY POLITICAL COMMISSAR NGAN,
WOULD HAVE KNOWN THEY WERE FIGHTING FOR THEIR POLITICAL
LIVES. BY CONTRAST, THE OTHER RISING STARS OF THE CPV --
SUCH AS SOUTHERN REFORMERS TRIET AND DUNG, AS WELL AS
NORTHERN IDEOLOGUE TRONG -- WERE CONSOLIDATING THEIR
POSITIONS CONFIDENT THEY WOULD BE LEFT STANDING.


3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): NOW THAT A NEW LINEUP HAS BEEN
REVEALED, IT IS INSTRUCTIVE TO ANALYZE WHAT BROUGHT THE
LEADERSHIP TO THIS POINT, AND HOW THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE
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ACTIVITIES OF THE LARGELY SECRETIVE POLITBURO CONTRIBUTED
TO THE FALL OR MAINTENANCE IN POWER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS. IN PARTICULAR, WE SEE THE RISE IN RANK OF TRIET
AND DUNG AS FORETELLING THEIR SOON-EMERGENCE AS THE
CHAMPIONS OF REFORM AT THE MOST SENIOR RANKS. THIS CABLE
IS THE SECOND OF A TWO-PART SERIES DOCUMENTING THE PUBLIC
APPEARANCES OF POLITBURO MEMBERS IN THE OFFICIAL VIETNAMESE
PRINT MEDIA SINCE OCTOBER 1, 2000. (REF A ANALYZED THE NEW
LEADERSHIP LINEUP, AND REF B INCLUDED DETAILED PROFILES OF
PHIEU AND HIS SUCCESSOR, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NONG
DUC MANH.) THIS CABLE ANALYZES THE REMAINING 16 MEMBERS OF
THE OUTGOING POLITBURO.

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"PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACES" OF THE OUTGOING POLITBURO
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4. (SBU) WITH THE NEW POLITBURO AND CENTRAL COMMITTEE
OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED APRIL 22, IT IS AN INSTRUCTIVE MOMENT
TO ANALYZE WHAT BROUGHT THE SECRETIVE VIETNAMESE LEADERSHIP
TO THIS POINT. AS PART OF THE EMBASSY'S ONGOING TRACKING
PROJECT OF THE PUBLIC FACES OF THE POLITBURO IN THE
VIETNAMESE MEDIA OVER THE PAST YEAR, WE HAVE DOCUMENTED THE
APPEARANCES OF THE MOST SENIOR COMMUNIST PARTY (CPV)
MEMBERS IN VIETNAM'S MAJOR DAILY PAPERS. WE HAVE FOCUSED
PARTICULARLY ON THE CPV MOUTHPIECE "NHAN DAN" (THE PEOPLE)
AND TWO LEADING DAILIES IN THE LARGEST CITIES: "NEW HANOI"
AND "SAIGON LIBERATION." WHILE NOT A COMPREHENSIVE
LISTING, THIS GIVES US A GOOD SURVEY OF HOW THE LEADERSHIP
IS FEATURED IN THE MOST PROMINENT OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS.

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5. (SBU) IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS, FROM OCTOBER 1-MARCH 31,
IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS, WE
CONTINUED TO SEE THE SAME TRENDS DOCUMENTED PREVIOUSLY:
ROUGHLY HALF OF THE POLITBURO HAVE POSITIONS WITH LARGELY
"PUBLIC" FACES THAT INVOLVE SIGNIFICANT APPEARANCES IN THE
PUBLIC EYE, WHILE THE OTHER HALF WORK LARGELY OUT OF THE
PUBLIC EYE IN POSITIONS DEALING WITH INTERNAL CPV AFFAIRS.
FOR THIS ANALYSIS, WE EXAMINED THE LEADERSHIP IN THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

-- A) "THE ONCE AND FUTURE LEADERS" WHO THROUGHOUT THE PAST
YEAR HAVE OCCUPIED THE TOP SLOTS, HAVE HAD HIGH PUBLIC
VISIBILITY, AND CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPORTANT POSITIONS IN THE
NEW POLITBURO;

-- B) "SENIOR RETIRING PUBLIC FIGURES" WHO WERE THE
OUTGOING POLITBURO ELDERS WITH HAD RELATIVELY HIGH PUBLIC
PROFILES, BUT BECAUSE OF AGE, HEALTH AND/OR POOR
PERFORMANCE WERE REPLACED AT THE CONGRESS;

-- C) "CONTINUING POLITBURO MEMBERS WITH LOW PUBLIC
PROFILES" WHO REMAINED IN THE POLITBURO DESPITE LOW PUBLIC
PROFILES;


-- D) "MEMBERS WITH LOW PUBLIC PROFILES WHO WERE REPLACED,"
WHO INCLUDE THOSE POLITBURO MEMBERS WHO WERE ONLY RARELY
FEATURED IN THE MEDIA AND WHO WERE RETIRED AT THE CPV
CONGRESS.

END SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION.

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OTHER "ONCE AND FUTURE LEADERS"
--------------


6. (C) TRAN DUC LUONG, 63, THE STATE PRESIDENT, MAINTAINED
HIS SECOND-RANKED POSITION IN THE NEW POLITBURO LINEUP.
THERE HAD BEEN GREAT SPECULATION IN RECENT MONTHS ABOUT
WHETHER LUONG WOULD SURVIVE IN POWER OR EVEN BE PROMOTED TO
GENERAL SECRETARY; IN THE END, THIS STEADY IF UNSPECTACULAR
OFFICIAL REMAINED IN PLACE. LUONG, WHO WAS FEATURED ON 64
OCCASIONS IN THE OFFICIAL PRESS DURING THE OCTOBER-MARCH
PERIOD, WAS GENERALLY PRESENTED IN PROTOCOL SITUATIONS
GREETING FOREIGN LEADERS, THOUGH HE TOO (LIKE ALL OTHER
POLITBURO MEMBERS) ATTENDED PROVINCIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL
CPV CONGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE FALL. LIKE PHIEU, LUONG
FIGURED PROMINENTLY IN COVERAGE OF HANOI'S 990TH
ANNIVERSARY IN EARLY OCTOBER. HE RECEIVED ASEAN
INFORMATION MINISTERS (OCT. 13); MET PRESIDENT CLINTON
(NOV. 17); VISITED CHINA AND MET WITH JIANG ZEMIN, ZHU
RONGJI AND LI PENG (DEC. 25-29); RECEIVED THE CAMBODIAN
FOREIGN MINISTER (FEB. 6),THE SINGAPOREAN PRESIDENT (FEB.
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8),THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (MARCH 2) AND THE THAI FOREIGN
MINISTER (MARCH 8). HIS SCHEDULED TRIP TO CAMBODIA WAS
ABORTED BECAUSE THE BORDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO
COUNTRIES REMAINED INTRACTABLE. HE LIKEWISE VISITED
FLOODED REGIONS OF THE MEKONG DELTA AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
IN LATE OCTOBER, ATTENDED THE HANOI AND HO CHI MINH CITY
CPV CONGRESSES, ADDRESSED THE NGHE AN PARTY CONGRESS (JAN.
19),AND WAS FEATURED ATTENDING THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE
PLENUMS. NOW THAT THE CONGRESS HAS CONCLUDED, RUMORS
CIRCULATE THAT LUONG COULD BE SWITCHED TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
CHAIRMAN NEXT MONTH, WITH MANH TAKING THE COMBINED
POSITIONS OF GENERAL SECRETARY AND PRESIDENT. (HOWEVER, IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY DUNG, TRIET OR AN WOULD MOVE TO THIS
POST.) OTHER REPORTS SUGGEST LUONG MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
A YEAR OR TWO, AND THEN REPLACED, LIKE KHAI, BY A YOUNGER
COLLEAGUE.


7. (C) PRIME MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI, WHO IS 67, WAS THE
OLDEST SENIOR LEADER TO SURVIVE PAST THE PARTY CONGRESS.
RANKED THIRD IN BOTH THE OLD AND NEW CPV RANKS, KHAI WAS
WIDELY ASSUMED TO BE ON HIS WAY OUT DURING MUCH OF THE PAST
SIX MONTHS. HE OFFERED TO RESIGN TWICE IN THE PAST YEAR
AND SEEMED DISPIRITED AND BLASE IN MANY OF HIS OFFICIAL
APPEARANCES WE WITNESSED. (COMMENT: IN RETROSPECT, WE
SURMISE HIS LONG BITTER CONFLICT WITH PHIEU MAY HAVE LED TO
HIS DEEP FRUSTRATION, AND IN THE POST-PHIEU ERA, KHAI MAY
HAVE A CHANCE FOR A NEW RENAISSANCE. END COMMENT.)
DESPITE KHAI'S FRUSTRATIONS, DURING THE PAST SIX MONTHS HE
KEPT A BUSY SCHEDULE BEFITTING THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT.
FEATURED 71 TIMES IN THE PRESS, HE WAS DEPICTED CHAIRING
THE INTERAGENCY GOVERNMENT COUNCIL IN ITS MONTHLY MEETINGS,
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00985 02 OF 07 251103Z
AND HE WAS PICTURED AT THE OPENING OF THE PLENUM MEETINGS
OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND THE OPENING OF THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY SESSION IN OCTOBER. HE CHAIRED MEETINGS TO
ADDRESS THE CONSEQUENCES OF FLOODING IN SOUTHERN PROVINCES
AND TO SPUR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL REGIONS. HE GAVE
THE KEYNOTE ADDRESS TO THE HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CONGRESS
DEC. 19, ATTENDED THE HANOI CONGRESS DEC. 27, ADDRESSED THE
PUBLIC SECURITY FORCES PARTY CONGRESS JAN. 4, AND SPOKE TO
THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND FRONT MEETING IN HCMC IN FEBRUARY.
HE HOSTED VISITING PRIME MINISTERS AND PRESIDENTS FROM
LUXEMBOURG, ALGERIA, INDIA, AND RUSSIA, AS WELL AS THE
UNESCO DIRECTOR GENERAL, AND HE MET WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON
IN NOVEMBER. ON NOVEMBER 24 HE REPRESENTED VIETNAM AT THE
4TH INFORMAL ASEAN SUMMIT. HE MADE PROVINCIAL WORKING
VISITS TO HAIPHONG, YEN BAI, HA NAM, BA RIA-VUNG TAU, DONG
NAI, SON LA, AND LAI CHAU, THE LATTER WHERE HE TOURED
EARTHQUAKE-STRICKEN AREAS. (COMMENT: FROM KHAI'S RATHER
PERFUNCTORY APPEARANCES IN PUBLIC OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS,
ONE WOULD NOT HAVE PREDICTED SEVERAL MONTHS AGO HE WOULD
SURVIVE PAST THE CONGRESS. IN THE END, THE BACKROOM
POLITICKING THAT BROUGHT MANH TO POWER AND DUMPED HIS
NEMESIS PHIEU LEFT KHAI STANDING AT THE END OF THE
BLOODLETTING. END COMMENT.) A NUMBER OF SOURCES,
INCLUDING FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR VO VAN KIET, HAVE SUGGESTED
KHAI WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEXT YEAR, PERHAPS THE
FALL, WHEN A NEW PRIME MINISTER IS EXPECTED TO BE NAMED.


8. (C) HO CHI MINH CITY COMMUNIST PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH
TRIET, 58, WAS PROMOTED TO FOURTH IN THE NEW POLITBURO
RANKINGS, FROM HIS PREVIOUS POSITION OF SIXTEENTH OF 18.
CONSISTENTLY RANKED WITH ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH AS
ONE OF THE MOST POPULAR LEADERS IN THE POLITBURO, TRIET
APPEARS TO HAVE BENEFITED FROM HIS POPULARITY AMONG
SOUTHERN REFORMERS, INCLUDING SENIOR ADVISOR VO VAN KIET,
WHO PRESSED HIM AS A POSSIBLE GENERAL SECRETARY. TRIET WAS
FEATURED 29 TIMES IN NATIONAL MEDIA. LIKE HANOI PARTY
CHIEF TRONG, HE PRESIDED OVER DISTRICT CONGRESSES OF THE
HCMC PARTY LEADING UP TO HIS READING OF THE DRAFT POLITICAL
REPORT AT THE DECEMBER 19 CITY CONGRESS, AND HE SPOKE AT
SEVERAL OF THE CITY'S DISTRICT MILITARY CONGRESSES AS WELL.
DECEMBER 23 HE WAS FORMALLY REELECTED CHAIR OF THE HCMC
PARTY. HE RECEIVED VISITING DELEGATIONS FROM THE CHINESE
COMMUNIST PARTY IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. TRIET REVIEWED
THE ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS OF HIS CITY, VISITED FLOOD-
STRICKEN PROVINCES ON THE CITY'S OUTSKIRTS IN OCTOBER, MET
WITH THE CPV YOUTH REPRESENTATIVES, MADE A SPEECH
COMMEMORATING THE CPV'S FOUNDING IN FEBRUARY, AND WELCOMED
THE FATHERLAND FRONT AND CONSTITUENT GROUPS FOR MEETINGS IN
HCMC. ACCORDING TO SOME SOURCES, TRIET HAS BEEN DESIGNATED
AS THE LIKELY SUCCESSOR TO KHAI AS PRIME MINISTER. (THE
OTHER PRIME CANDIDATE IS DEPUTY PM DUNG, WHO ALSO WAITS IN
THE WINGS AS A YOUNG SOUTHERN REFORMER. BECAUSE TRIET AND
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DUNG HAVE SIMILAR PEDIGREES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EXPECTED
GOVERNMENTAL CHANGES TO BE ANNOUNCED BY THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY NEXT MONTH MAY SUGGEST WHO IS THE BEST-POSITIONED
"HEIR" TO KHAI.) REPORTS CIRCULATE THAT TRIET (OR DUNG)
MAY MOVE TO REPLACE MANH AS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN.
BOTH INCUMBENT PM KHAI AND HIS PREDECESSOR KIET FIRST
SERVED AS DEPUTY PM BEFORE MOVING UP, AND IF TRIET INDEED
IS BEING GROOMED FOR PM, HE MIGHT MOVE NEXT MONTH TO BECOME
FIRST DEPUTY PM. (UNDER THIS SCENARIO, DUNG MIGHT MOVE TO
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY OR ANOTHER SENIOR POST.)


9. (C) FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG, 51,
RETURNING TO THE FIFTH-RANKING SLOT HE HELD THREE YEARS AGO
(BEFORE A NOMINAL "DEMOTION"),ALSO RANKS AS ONE OF THE
"NEXT GENERATION" OF LEADERS IN THE CPV. HE PLAYED AN
IMPORTANT, BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN REACHING AGREEMENT TO
INITIAL THE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. IN THE
SUMMER OF 1999, AND IN THAT, AND IN OTHER DIFFICULT ISSUES,
HE HAS PLAYED KEY "FIX-IT" ROLES TO GET THINGS DONE. UNTIL
LAST YEAR HE SERVED AS ACTING HEAD OF THE STATE BANK AND
RECEIVED GENERALLY GOOD MARKS FOR HIS SERVICE, THOUGH HE
HAD NO BACKGROUND IN BANKING PRIOR TO THAT EXPERIENCE.
SHORTLY AFTER UNREST BROKE OUT FROM LARGE DEMONSTRATIONS IN
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN EARLY FEBRUARY, DUNG WAS
DISPATCHED TO GIA LAI TO MONITOR AND HELP MANAGE THE
SITUATION ON THE GROUND. WE KNOW LITTLE OF WHAT HE
ACTUALLY DID, AND THE VISIT WAS NOT REPORTED IN STATE
MEDIA. HOWEVER, TO OUR EYE THESE ASSIGNMENTS REVEAL HE IS
A KEY MEMBER OF THE LEADERSHIP, THOUGH IT PPEARS HE HAS
BOTH STRONG SUPPORTERS AS WELL AS OPPONENTS AMONG THE
LEADERSHIP. (SOME MAY RESENT HIS RAPID RISE: A POLITBURO
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00985 03 OF 07 251103Z
MEMBER ONLY SINCE 1996, DUNG ROSE TO FIFTH IN THE CPV RANKS
BEFORE BEING BOUNCED TO 15TH IN THE FORMAL ORDER IN 1997
AROUND THE TIME OF PHIEU'S ASCENT TO POWER. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW DUNG FARES IN THE POST-PHIEU ERA.)
DURING THE TRACKING PERIOD, DUNG WAS FEATURED 34 TIMES,
LARGELY IN HIS ROLE AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER WITH A MAJOR
ROLE IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC AFFAIRS. DUNG ACTS FOR PM KHAI AS
NEEDED; HE ROUTINELY READS THE GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FOR ONE OF THE TWO SESSIONS
EACH YEAR, AND HE CO-CHAIRED THE GOVERNMENT'S CABINET
MEETING IN OCTOBER. HE CHAIRED A CONFERENCE ON DEALING
WITH FLOODS IN DONG THAP PROVINCE AND MEETINGS ON
IMPLEMENTING THE 2001 BUDGET, AND HE HELD A WIDE VARIETY OF
MEETING WITH VISITING OFFICIALS, SUCH AS THE DIRECTOR OF
THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. HE VISITED QUANG NINH PROVINCE
WITH PHIEU IN OCTOBER, AND QUANG NGAI, DAKLAK, BINH PHUOC,
AND OTHER PROVINCES ON HIS OWN. IN MID-MARCH HE CHAIRED A
CONFERENCE ON INVESTMENT IN VIETNAM, WHICH WAS ORGANIZED IN
SINGAPORE.


10. (C) HANOI COMMUNIST PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN PHU TRONG, 56,
PROMOTED TO SEVENTH IN POLITBURO RANKS, WAS ON THE SHORT
LIST FOR GENERAL SECRETARY. BUT IN THE END, TRONG, WHO
FORMALLY WAS LAST IN THE PREVIOUS POLITBURO, MAY HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERED NOT EXPERIENCED ENOUGH FOR THE TOP POST. ONE OF
THE POLITBURO'S MORE IDEOLOGICAL MEMBERS, HAVING SERVED AS
HEAD OF IDEOLOGICAL AFFAIRS AND AS EDITOR OF THE "COMMUNIST
REVIEW" JOURNAL, TRONG APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOLD OF FORMER
GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU. HE MAY YET BE DESTINED FOR HIGHER
THINGS, DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MORE IDEOLOGICAL
FACTION WITHIN THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE. TRONG WAS
DEPICTED ON 35 DATES IN "THE PEOPLE'S DAILY." HE PLAYED A
PROMINENT NATIONAL ROLE IN HELPING OVERSEE THE DRAFTING AND
EDITING OF THE POLITICAL REPORT, ONE OF THE SEMINAL
DOCUMENTS THAT WAS PRESENTED AT THE PARTY CONGRESS APRIL

19. TRONG PRESIDED OVER MEETINGS OF THE HANOI PARTY
COMMITTEE AND ATTENDED DISTRICT CONGRESSES OF THE HANOI CPV
LEADING UP TO HIS OPENING OF THE CITY'S CONGRESS DECEMBER
13 AND HIS READING OF THE DRAFT POLITICAL REPORT TO THE
HANOI PARTY GATHERING ON DEC. 27. TRONG WAS PRIMARILY
DEPICTED IN THE MEDIA MANAGING THE AFFAIRS OF THE HANOI
PARTY AND INVOLVED IN CITY ISSUES. HE PRESIDED OVER
OCTOBER FESTIVITIES FOR THE 990TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE
FOUNDING OF HANOI; HELD WORKING SESSIONS WITH THE HANOI
LABOR DEPARTMENT, WITH THE RED CROSS (CONCERNING FLOOD
PREVENTION IN THE RED RIVER DELTA),WITH PROTESTANT AND
CATHOLIC LEADERS IN THE CITY, AND WITH CPV YOUTH UNION AND
OTHER SECTORAL GROUPS.

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SENIOR PUBLIC FIGURES WHO RETIRED
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11. (C) FATHERLAND FRONT CHAIRMAN PHAM THE DUYET, 64, WHO
WAS DROPPED FROM THE POLITBURO AFTER BEING RANKED FIFTH
PREVIOUSLY, WAS FEATURED ON 33 DATES DURING THE TRACKING
PERIOD. DUYET BATTLED REPORTS OF MISMANAGEMENT AND
CORRUPTION THROUGHOUT THE PAST THREE YEARS. HE MAY
MAINTAIN HIS ROLE AS HEAD OF THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND FRONT
(VFF),THE UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION THAT OVERSEES THE
CONSTITUENT SECTORAL GROUPS THAT THE CPV USES TO MANAGE AND
CHANNEL NON-GOVERNMENTAL VIETNAMESE GROUPS. HOWEVER, THE
FACT HE WAS ALSO DROPPED FROM THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE
SUGGESTS HE MAY NOT HOLD THAT POSITION FOR LONG. DUYET'S
PRIMARY PUBLIC ACTIVITIES WERE CONNECTED WITH GROUPS AND
PROGRAMS OF THE VFF, SUCH AS THE FARMER'S UNION, MASS
MOBILIZATION ACTIVITIES, THE OCTOBER 17 "DAY OF THE POOR,"
THE WOMEN'S UNION, THE YOUTH UNION, AND THE CPV MOUTHPIECE
"NHAN DAN" (THE PEOPLE). HE ALSO MET WITH THE HANOI
CATHOLIC ARCHBISHOP AND LEADERS OF THE NORTHERN PROTESTANT
CHURCHES JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND BUDDHIST LEADERS AROUND
IMPORTANT FESTIVAL DAYS. KNOWN AS THE POLITBURO'S
"TROUBLESHOOTER," DUYET JOURNEYED TO THAI BINH (SITE OF
MASS PROTESTS THREE YEARS AGO THAT HE SERVED TO HELPED
CONTROL) IN OCTOBER FOR A HISTORICAL ANNIVERSARY OF THE
PROVINCE; THERE HE WAS INTERVIEWED AT LENGTH ON THE CPV'S
MASS MOBILIZATION ACTIVITIES. IN THE SPRING HE MADE A
WIDELY PUBLICIZED VISIT TO THE HIGHLANDS PROVINCES OF GIA
LAI AND DAKLAK, SITE OF FEBRUARY PROTESTS. (DEPUTY PM
DUNG'S VISIT SHORTLY AFTER THE PROTESTS BROKE OUT, BY
CONTRAST, WAS NOT REPORTED IN THE STATE PRESS AT THE TIME.)
DUYET ALSO ATTENDED DISTRICT AND PROVINCIAL PARTY
CONGRESSES IN VINH PHU, HAI DUONG, QUANG NAM, HAIPHONG, BAC
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00985 04 OF 07 251104Z
NINH, AND THE PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESS IN DANANG IN
FEBRUARY.


12. (C) DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN MANH CAM, 71, WAS
FEATURED IN THE MEDIA ON 62 OCCASIONS. SINCE BEING
REPLACED BY NGUYEN DY NIEN AS FOREIGN MINISTER A YEAR AGO,
CAM WAS WIDELY SEEN AS BEING "KICKED UPSTAIRS" PRIOR TO HIS
RETIREMENT AT THE CONGRESS. DESPITE THIS, HE MAINTAINED AN
ACTIVE SCHEDULE OF PUBLIC EVENTS AS HE REPRESENTED VIETNAM
AT HOME AND ABROAD, AND ALSO AT LEAST NOMINALLY OVERSAW
FOREIGN AND TRADE POLICY. DURING THE PERIOD, CAM MET
SCORES OF VISITING MINISTERS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM THE
U.S., CHINA, ITALY, LAOS, CHILE AND JAPAN. HE ATTENDED THE
ASEM III SUMMIT (MEETING THE SOUTH KOREAN AND SPANISH PRIME
MINISTERS, AMONG OTHERS) AND MET WITH VISITING FORMER
GENERAL DIRECTOR OF GATT DUNKEL. CAM'S MOST PROMINENT TRIP
OF THE PERIOD WAS ATTENDING THE APEC SUMMIT IN BRUNEI
NOVEMBER 14-18, WHERE HE MET WITH PRESIDENTS CLINTON, PUTIN
AND JIANG ON THE MARGINS AND OTHER OFFICIALS, INCLUDING
USTR AND U.S. CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS.

-------------- -
LIKELY FUTURE PLAYERS WITH LOW PUBLIC PROFILES
-------------- -


13. (C) CPV ORGANIZATIONAL AFFAIRS CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN, 63,
WHO WAS FEATURED IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA ON ONLY 12 DIFFERENT
DATES, POSSESSES MUCH MORE CLOUT THAN HIS PUBLIC PROFILE
WOULD SUGGEST. LIKE IN DECEMBER 1997, WHEN HE NARROWLY
LOST OUT TO PHIEU, AN WAS RUNNER-UP A SECOND TIME FOR THE
TOP JOB. ACCORDING TO SEVERAL SOURCES, INCLUDING ONE
STAFF-LEVEL CONTACT AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AN IS RUMORED
TO BE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED TO MOVE TO HEAD THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY (TAKING MANH'S PLACE) BEGINNING IN MAY, WHICH
WOULD GIVE HIM A MUCH HIGHER PROFILE. (IN THE NEW
POLITBURO, HOWEVER, HE WAS DROPPED TO TWELFTH, THE LOWEST
RANK OF ANY CONTINUING MEMBER, WHICH SUGGESTS ANOTHER
LEADER WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUT, SUCH AS DUNG OR TRIET, MAY
BE DESTINED FOR THE ASSEMBLY.) THROUGHOUT THE TRACKING
PERIOD, AN WAS RARELY FEATURED IN THE PRESS. SOME OF HIS
APPEARANCES WERE PURELY PROTOCOL-BASED, SUCH AS WHEN HE
VISITED THE TOMB OF FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER LE DUC THO IN
OCTOBER. OTHERS WERE MORE SUBSTANTIVE: HE DIRECTED
ORGANIZATIONAL MEETINGS ON LESSONS LEARNED FROM CPV
CONGRESSES IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE CENTRAL REGION,
AND HAS WAS FEATURED HOLDING CPV ORGANIZATIONAL MEETINGS AS
WELL. IF HE DOES MOVE TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AN WOULD
FOR THE FIRST TIME EMERGE FROM THE CPV SHADOWS.


14. (C) CPV ECONOMIC COMMISSION HEAD TRUONG TAN SANG, 52,
FEATURED IN THE MEDIA ON ONLY 8 DATES, LIKEWISE IS A
POTENTIAL FUTURE PLAYER WHO NONETHELESS NOW MAINTAINS A
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VERY LOW PUBLIC PROFILE. FORMERLY HCMC PARTY CHIEF, SANG,
LIKE DUNG AND TRIET, IS A YOUNG SOUTHERN REFORMER WHO MAY
BE DESTINED FOR HIGHER THINGS. NOT CURRENTLY AS POPULAR AS
TRIET, SANG IS PRESENTLY IN A LOW-VISIBILITY JOB AS HEAD OF
THE CPV'S LITTLE-KNOWN ECONOMIC COMMISSION. THE FACT THAT
THE CPV SEEMS TO HAVE TILTED MORE TOWARD REFORM AT THE
NINTH CONGRESS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO SANG'S WORK.
(CONVERSELY, THE JAPANESE EMBASSY HEARD REPORTS PRIOR TO
THE CONGRESS THAT SANG WAS IN DANGER OF BEING DROPPED FROM
THE POLITBURO BECAUSE OF ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION. IN ANY
EVENT, HE SURVIVED, THOUGH RELATIVE TO HIS PEERS HE DROPPED
SLIGHTLY IN RANK, WITH NEWCOMER LE HONG ANH, AS WELL AS
TRIET, DUNG, TRONG AND DIEN, ALL BYPASSING HIM IN THE
RANKS.) DURING THE TRACKING PERIOD, HE ATTENDED PARTY
CONGRESSES IN BEN TRE AND OTHER PROVINCES, AND PRESIDED
OVER THE JANUARY CPV CONGRESS OF THE CENTRAL ECONOMIC
BRANCH.


15. (C) DEFENSE MINISTER SR. LT. GENERAL PHAM VAN TRA, 65,
NARROWLY HELD ON TO HIS POLITBURO SEAT, LIKELY IN LARGE
PART BECAUSE THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF GOOD CANDIDATES TO
REPLACE HIM AS DEFENSE MINISTER. (HE WAS DEMOTED TO
ELEVENTH OF 15, WHICH IS VERY LOW INDEED CONSIDERING THAT
NORMALLY ELDER MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO ARE RANKED HIGHER
IN PROTOCOL RANKS.) TRA IS THE ONLY MILITARY
REPRESENTATIVE ON THE NEW 15-MEMBER POLITBURO, WHICH
HISTORICALLY IS UNPRECEDENTED IN VIETNAM. TRA HIMSELF IS
WEAKENED POLITICALLY BECAUSE OF HIS RECENT CENSURE BY THE
CENTRAL COMMITTEE FOR "MANAGEMENT FAILURES," IN PART FOR
ALLOWING LY TONG TO VIOLATE VIETNAMESE AIRSPACE. TRA MAY
HAVE SURVIVED BECAUSE HE WAS NOT INVOLVED IN THE USE OF
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MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS TO SPY ON MEMBERS OF THE
CENTRAL COMMITTEE, WHICH REPORTEDLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEMISE OF PHIEU AND HIS PROTEGE NGAN. (CONTRARILY, HE MAY
HAVE SURVIVED AS A TRADEOFF TO MAINTAIN SOME MILITARY
PRESENCE IN THE LEADERSHIP.) DURING THE TRACKING PERIOD,
TRA WAS DEPICTED IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA ON 25 OCCASIONS,
LARGELY IN ATTENDING AND PRESIDING OVER MILITARY FUNCTIONS.
HE CO-CHAIRED THE REVIEW MEETING OF THE MILITARY PARTY
COMMITTEE IN FEBRUARY AND ATTENDED THE SOC TRONG PROVINCIAL
CPV CONGRESS. IN FEBRUARY HE MET WITH THE VISITING CHINESE
DEFENSE MINISTER WITH GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU.


16. (C) MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY LE MINH HUONG, 64,
SURVIVED IN HIS SECRET POLICE POST AND WAS PROMOTED TO
SIXTH IN THE NEW RANKS. (THE AUSTRALIAN EMBASSY RECENTLY
HEARD ANOTHER REPORT FROM MPS CONTACTS THAT HUONG IS IN
POOR HEALTH, AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE
RANKS SUGGESTS MPS HAS FEWER MEMBERS IN SENIOR CPV RANKS.
HOWEVER, MPS REMAINS A POWERFUL FORCE IN VIETNAMESE
POLITICAL LIFE.) HUONG WAS DEPICTED IN THE MEDIA ON 13
OCCASIONS, ATTENDING PROVINCIAL CONGRESSES IN THUA THIEN-
HUE AND QUANG TRI, AND ATTENDING THE FOUNDING THE YOUTH
UNION. OVERALL, THOUGH, HIS ALMOST INVISIBLE PUBLIC
PROFILE DOES NOT MATCH HIS BEHIND-THE-SCENES INFLUENCE OR
THAT OF HIS MINISTRY IN VIETNAMESE LIFE.


17. (SBU) DANANG COMMUNIST PARTY CHIEF PHAN DIEN, 63, IS
ALMOST INVISIBLE IN NATIONAL MEDIA, THOUGH THIS IS
MISLEADING. HE WAS FEATURED IN PROMINENT COVERAGE ONLY
FIVE TIMES IN THE HANOI AND HO CHI MINH CITY MEDIA, THOUGH
HE OF COURSE RECEIVED MORE REGULAR COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
REGION/DANANG PRESS. WE DO NOT REGULARLY MONITOR THE
REGIONAL PRESS FOR THIS PROJECT. DIEN WAS DEPICTED IN
NATIONAL MEDIA ATTENDING THE 25TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE
FOUNDING OF DANANG UNIVERSITY AND CHAIRING MEETINGS OF
PERSONNEL QUESTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PROVINCES AND SOCIO-
ECONOMIC PLANNING MEETINGS. OBVIOUSLY, THE NATIONAL MEDIA
GIVE ONLY A THUMBNAIL SKETCH OF DIEN'S ACTIVITIES; LIKE
TRONG AND TRIET (WHO HEAD THE COUNTRY'S TWO LARGEST CITY
PARTY ORGANIZATIONS),DIEN PRESIDED OVER DISTRICT AND
PROVINCIAL CPV PREPARATIONS FOR THE PARTY CONGRESS.
HOWEVER, THESE ACTIVITIES RECEIVED SCANT ATTENTION IN
NATIONAL MEDIA. HE WAS DEPICTED JOURNEYING TO QUANG NAM'S
CPV CONGRESS IN MID-DECEMBER. OVERALL, DESPITE HIS LOW
NATIONAL PROFILE, DIEN APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD REPUTATION
AMONG HIS COLLEAGUES. FOLLOWING THE MASSIVE FLOODING OF
TWO YEARS AGO IN THE CENTRAL REGION, THE CPV REPORTEDLY
DISPATCHED DIEN TO PROVIDE A STEADY HAND TO HELP THE REGION
RECOVER. HE MAY RISE TO MORE PROMINENCE IN THE FUTURE.

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MEMBERS WITH LOW PUBLIC PROFILES WHO RETIRED
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18. (C) PAVN POLITICAL DIRECTOR LT. GENERAL PHAM THANH
NGAN'S DROP FROM THE POLITBURO IS THE MOST STRIKING, THOUGH
HE ALWAYS HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED AS PHIEU'S PROTEGE. AS NOTED
ABOVE AND DOCUMENTED IN DATT REPORTING, NGAN'S FALL WITH
PHIEU APPEARS TO OWE IN LARGE PART TO THE MISUSE OF
MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AGAINST THEIR POLITBURO COLLEAGUES.
UNTIL RECENTLY NGAN, 62, WAS SEEN AS POTENTIALLY A RISING
STAR, WHO MIGHT FOLLOW PHIEU (AS A MILITARY POLITICAL
COMMISSAR) TO HIGHER RANKS IN THE CPV. DURING THE TRACKING
PERIOD, HE WAS DEPICTED IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA 19 TIMES,
MOSTLY IN MILITARY CEREMONIAL FUNCTIONS. HE CO-CHAIRED THE
REVIEW OF THE CPV MILITARY COMMITTEE IN FEBRUARY, ATTENDED
CEREMONIES HONORING MEMBERS OF THE POLITICAL DEPARTMENT OF
THE PEOPLE'S ARMY, AND VISITED MILITARY UNITS AND HOSPITALS
DURING TET.


19. (C) HO CHI MINH POLITICAL ACADEMY DIRECTOR NGUYEN DUC
BINH, 73, WHO WAS FEATURED 20 TIMES IN NATIONAL MEDIA, HAS
BEEN SLATED FOR RETIREMENT FOR SOME TIME. THE OLDEST
POLITBURO MEMBER, BINH SERVED FOR TEN YEARS IN THE HIGHEST
BODY. HE HELD SOME INFLUENCE AS A CPV ELDER AND A FORMER
"TEACHER" FOR MOST OF HIS POLITBURO COLLEAGUES, SINCE MOST
OF THEM HAD PASSED THROUGH THE ACADEMY AS PART OF THEIR CPV
TRAINING. ACCORDING TO SOME REPORTS, BINH WAS ONE OF THOSE
WHO HELPED PUT A BRAKE ON THE BTA 18 MONTHS AGO. DURING
THIS PERIOD, HE HEADED UP AN IDEOLOGICAL CONFERENCE SHARING
LESSONS OF SOCIALIST DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA
IN NOVEMBER. HE ATTENDED PARTY CONGRESSES IN HOA BINH, HA
TAY, AND YEN BAI.
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00985 06 OF 07 251104Z


20. (C) NGUYEN THI XUAN MY, 60, HEAD OF THE CPV CENTRAL
CONTROL DEPARTMENT, WAS DROPPED FROM SENIOR CPV RANKS
DESPITE BEING THE ONLY WOMAN WHO HAS EVER SERVED IN THE
POLITBURO. UNTIL RECENTLY THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WAS THAT
THE CPV WOULD WANT TO KEEP HER -- OR PROMOTE ANOTHER WOMAN
TO TAKE HER PLACE -- TO MAINTAIN A FACADE OF INCLUSIVENESS
AT THE TOP OF THE CPV. HOWEVER, SHE WAS SHARPLY CRITICIZED
IN CPV RANKS FOR THE FAILURES OF THE CRITICISM/SELF-
CRITICISM CAMPAIGN AND CORRUPTION PROBLEMS IN PARTY RANKS.
SHE WAS FEATURED 16 TIMES IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA DURING THIS
PERIOD. SHE DEALT WITH THE CENTRAL UNITS OF THE CPV AND
ATTENDED PARTY CONGRESSES IN VINH PHUC AND HUNG YEN
PROVINCES. (NOTE: LABOR MINISTER NGUYEN THI HANG, WHO
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL COMMITTEE SEAT AT THE CONGRESS, IS
WIDELY MENTIONED AS A POSSIBLE VICE PRESIDENT, WHICH WOULD
PLACE HER AS THE COUNTRY'S HIGHEST-RANKING WOMAN. THOUGH
THE NEW 15-MEMBER POLITBURO HAS NO WOMEN, MS. TONG THI
PHONG, PARTY CHIEF OF SON LA PROVINCE, WAS NAMED TO THE
NINE-MEMBER POLITBURO SECRETARIAT.)


21. (SBU) CPV IDEOLOGY CHIEF LE XUAN TUNG, 64, DEPICTED 24
TIMES IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA, RETIRED AS LONG EXPECTED.
TUNG IS IN POOR HEALTH, AND HE WAS LUCKY TO HANG ON TO HIS
POLITBURO SEAT AFTER BEING BOOTED AS HANOI PARTY CHIEF 18
MONTHS AGO. DURING THE RATING PERIOD, TUNG SPOKE AT THE
PARTY CONGRESSES OF AGENCIES UNDER CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
CONTROL, AS WELL AS CPV CONGRESSES IN NAM DINH, THAI BINH,
AND NINH BINH. HE HAS MAINTAINED A LOW PROFILE SINCE
ASSUMING HIS PRESENT ROLE.

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COMMENT
--------------


22. (C) WITH THE CHANGING OF THE GUARD THIS PAST WEEKEND TO
A YOUNGER LEADERSHIP, IT IS STRIKING TO OBSERVE HOW MANY OF
THOSE WHO ADVANCED IN THE NEW POLITBURO -- ESPECIALLY MANH,
TRIET AND DUNG -- ARE AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE HAD "PUBLIC"
RESPONSIBILITIES THAT HAVE ENABLED THEM TO BUILD BROADER
CONSTITUENCIES OF SUPPORT. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THAT HAS
HELPED THEM WHEN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS HAS GONE PAST
THE POLITBURO TO THE BROADER CENTRAL COMMITTEE. BUT ONE
CANNOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE CONTINUING MAJOR
POWERS IN THIS SECRETIVE BODY -- HUONG AND AN FOR EXAMPLE -
- BIDE THEIR TIME IN THE SHADOWS. WE WILL BE INTERESTED TO
OBSERVE WHETHER THE NEW POLITBURO WILL DIFFER FROM THE OLD
IN ITS CONTRASTING PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACES. END COMMENT.
PETERSON

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