ACTIVITIES OF PHIEU AND MANH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS FORESHADOWED CHANGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 HANOI 000952 SIPDIS STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR STATE PASS USTR FOR DAMOND NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 00952 01 OF 06 201134Z TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL SUBJECT: ACTIVITIES OF PHIEU AND MANH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS FORESHADOWED CHANGES REF: A) HANOI 919 B) HANOI 890 C) 00 HANOI 670 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: THE FIERCE JOCKEYING AMONG THE COMMUNIST PARTY (CPV) LEADERSHIP THAT PEAKED AT THE APRIL 19-22 NINTH PARTY CONGRESS HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR MONTHS. (REFTELS DETAIL OUR EXPECTATION THAT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH WILL BE CROWNED AS THE NEW CPV GENERAL SECRETARY ON APRIL 22.) THE IN-FIGHTING THAT HAS LED TO THE ECLIPSE OF INCUMBENT PHIEU HAS BECOME PARTICULARLY FEVERISH SINCE OCTOBER, WHEN THE THREE SENIOR ADVISORS CIRCULATED A LETTER RECOMMENDING HE STEP DOWN FOR POOR AND UNEVEN LEADERSHIP. OVER THIS PERIOD, THE EMBASSY HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK THE PUBLIC APPEARANCES OF THE POLITBURO IN VIETNAMESE OFFICIAL MEDIA, AND THESE ACCOUNTS GIVE US INSIGHTS ABOUT HOW THE LEADERSHIP "CAMPAIGN" HAS BEEN PLAYED OUT. IN RETROSPECT, WE CAN SEE THAT PHIEU MADE A FURIOUS EFFORT, UNSUCCESSFUL IN THE END, TO "BARNSTORM" THE COUNTRY BY VISITING KEY PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS TO RALLY SUPPORT. ¶3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): AS NOTED IN EARLIER REPORTS DRAWING ON OUR YEAR-LONG TRACKING PROJECT, ROUGHLY HALF OF THE POLITBURO -- INCLUDING "THE ONCE AND FUTURE LEADERS" WHO SEEM THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00952 01 OF 06 201134Z GENERAL SECRETARY, PRIME MINISTER AND PRESIDENT -- HAVE HIGHLY VISIBLE PUBLIC ROLES. THE OTHER HALF OF THIS POWERFUL BODY, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO OPERATE IN THE SHADOWS, SHIELDED FROM PUBLIC VIEW. THIS CABLE PROVIDES A SNAPSHOT OF VIETNAM'S NEW LEADERSHIP, WHICH COMES OUT OF THE OLD POLITBURO; SUMMARIZES OUR TRACKING OF THE INCUMBENTS OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS; AND INCLUDES IN-DEPTH "PUBLIC PROFILES" OF OUTGOING GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU AND HIS EVIDENT SUCCESSOR MANH. (SEPTEL WILL PROFILE THE REMAINING 16 MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO.) END SUMMARY. -------------- SNAPSHOT OF VIETNAM'S NEW LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶4. (C) ON APRIL 21 THE DELEGATES TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS WILL FORMALLY CAST THEIR VOTES FOR A NEW 150-MEMBER CENTRAL COMMITTEE. AS DETAILED REFTELS, HOWEVER, THE DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE, AND WHEN THE RESULTS ARE ANNOUNCED OFFICIALLY APRIL 22, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH IS WIDELY ASSUMED TO BE CONFIRMED AS THE NEW CPV GENERAL SECRETARY REPLACING LE KHA PHIEU. FOLLOWING THE OPENING SESSION OF THE CONGRESS APRIL 19, PHIEU GRANTED A RARE IMPROMPTU INTERVIEW TO THE REUTERS CORRESPONDENT, VIRTUALLY CONFIRMING HE WAS STEPPING DOWN TO MAKE WAY FOR YOUNGER LEADERSHIP. (VIRTUALLY ALL OUR SOURCES CONFIRM MANH'S ELEVATION.) ALSO NOTABLE IN PHIEU'S COMMENTS WAS HIS MENTION THAT NEITHER HE NOR THE THREE CURRENT "SENIOR ADVISORS" -- FORMER GENERAL SECRETARY DO MUOI, FORMER PRESIDENT LE DUC ANH, AND FORMER PM VO VAN KIET -- WOULD SERVE AS SENIOR ADVISORS. TWO SOURCES TELL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00952 01 OF 06 201134Z US SEPARATELY THAT MANH ONLY AGREED TO TAKE THE JOB IF THERE WOULD NOT BE ANY SENIOR ADVISORS LOOKING OVER HIS AND THE REST OF THE POLITBURO'S SHOULDERS. ¶5. (C) REFTELS DETAIL THE LIKELY NEW ENTRIES TO THE POLITBURO -- INCLUDING CPV MASS MOBILIZATION HEAD TRUONG QUANG DUOC AND FORMER LABOR MINISTER NGUYEN DINH HOAN -- AS WELL AS THE LIKELY RETIREMENT OF SEVEN PRIMARILY OLDER AND LARGELY CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS. (DEPUTY PM CAM IS A REFORMIST EXCEPTION AMONG THOSE RETIRING, BUT EXPECTED RETIREES PHIEU, HO CHI MINH POLITICAL ACADEMY HEAD BINH, FATHERLAND FRONT HEAD DUYET, HANOI PARTY CHIEF TUNG AND ARMED FORCES POLITICAL COMMISSAR NGAN ALL HAVE BEEN AMONG THE CURRENT IDEOLOGICAL OR THE STABILITY-FIRST-REFORM- SECOND CAMPS.) IN ADDITION, THE NEW LEADERSHIP WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED ROLE FOR TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN, SET TO SERVE AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OVERSEEING FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE ISSUES (NGUYEN MANH CAM'S OLD POSITION) AND REPORTED TO MOVE INTO AN IMPORTANT COORDINATING POSITION AS HEAD OF THE RECONSTITUTED POLITBURO SECRETARIAT. (COMMENT: ONE OF THE MOST CAPABLE AND PRAGMATIC "REFORMERS" IN THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, VU KHOAN OF COURSE WAS KEY TO SIGNING OF THE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. HIS ELEVATION TO A POSITION OF GREATER INFLUENCE OVERALL CPV DECISION-MAKING CAN ENHANCE THE REFORMIST CAUSE. END COMMENT.) ¶6. (C) ALL IN ALL, THESE CHANGES ADD UP TO A MORE STREAMLINED LEADERSHIP THAT PROMISES TO BE MORE PROFESSIONAL AND EFFICIENT. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS: MANH, A PRAGMATIC MODERATE, HAS MUCH BETTER SKILLS AS AN ADMINISTRATOR THAN PHIEU. HE IS WIDELY RESPECTED (INCLUDING AMONG HIS STRONGLY REFORM-MINDED MID- LEVEL STAFF) FOR HIS LEADERSHIP OF THE ASSEMBLY OVER THE PAST DECADE, DURING WHICH HE DEMONSTRATED HIS SKILLS AS A COALITION BUILDER. HE HAS SPENT THE PAST DECADE HELPING GUIDE THE ASSEMBLY AS IT HAS ASSUMED AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT ROLE IN CRAFTING LEGISLATION TO MEET NEW DEMANDS AS VIETNAM HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD MARKET PRINCIPLES. PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, IF THE SENIOR ADVISORS INDEED ARE EXCLUDED FROM THE SCENE, THIS WILL BE A HUGE ADVANCE IN ALLOWING THE POLITBURO TO FUNCTION MORE AS A MODERN PARTY POLICY APPARATUS WITH MANH AS CEO. ¶7. (C) ANOTHER KEY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MILITARY LOOKS TO HAVE ITS LOWEST SENIOR PROFILE IN MEMORY, PERHAPS EVER IN THE HISTORY OF INDEPENDENT VIETNAM. IF, AS LOOKS LIKELY, DEFENSE MINISTER TRA WILL BE LEFT AS THE SOLE MILITARY REPRESENTATIVE ON A LEANER 15-MEMBER POLITBURO, THE MILITARY'S ABILITY TO WEIGH IN WITH "NATIONAL SECURITY" ARGUMENTS FOR GOING SLOW ON REFORM AND GUARDING AGAINST FOREIGN THREATS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN HISTORICALLY. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00952 02 OF 06 201135Z FURTHERMORE, TRA IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED PERSONALLY FOLLOWING HIS SEVERE CENSURE BY THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE EARLIER THIS MONTH FOR MISMANAGEMENT, IN PART BECAUSE OF THE VIOLATION OF VIETNAMESE AIR SPACE BY VIETNAMESE- AMERICAN ANTI-SRV ACTIVIST LY TONG. (NOTE: IT APPEARS PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER HUONG WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE POLITBURO. END NOTE.) IN ADDITION, THOUGH THIS HAS NEVER BEEN PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED, SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT THAT PART OF PHIEU'S DOWNFALL -- AND THE CENSURE OF TRA AND ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF DUNG -- OWED TO HIS MISUSE OF MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS TO EAVESDROP ON HIS POLITBURO AND CENTRAL COMMITTEE PEERS. ANGER BY CENTRAL COMMITTEE COLLEAGUES UPON DISCOVERY OF THIS REPORTED CAMPAIGN, RUMORED TO BE A WEAPON IN PHIEU'S CRITICISM/SELF-CRITICISM INITIATIVE, MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE IN THE MILITARY'S WEAKENED LEADERSHIP PROFILE. -------------- -------------- THE NEW LEADERSHIP GROWS OUT OF THE OLD: "PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACES" OF POLITBURO PRIOR TO CONGRESS -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) AS THE NEW VIETNAMESE LEADERSHIP IS UNVEILED THIS WEEKEND, IT IS AN INSTRUCTIVE MOMENT TO ANALYZE WHAT BROUGHT ABOUT THESE CHANGES. SINCE THE POLITBURO IS SUCH AN OPAQUE AND SECRETIVE BODY -- AND SUSPICION OF THE U.S. CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE SECURITY- MINDED MINISTRIES AND CPV CADRE -- WE OFTEN OBTAIN ONLY INDIRECT INSIGHTS INTO THE WORKINGS OF THIS GROUP. AS PART OF THE EMBASSY'S ONGOING TRACKING PROJECT OF THE PUBLIC FACES OF THE POLITBURO IN THE VIETNAMESE MEDIA OVER THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00952 02 OF 06 201135Z PAST YEAR, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TALLY HOW FREQUENTLY AND IN WHAT MANNER VIETNAM'S MAJOR DAILY PAPERS TRACK THE APPEARANCES OF THE MOST SENIOR COMMUNIST PARTY (CPV) MEMBERS. (IN PARTICULAR WE EXAMINED THE CPV MOUTHPIECE "THE PEOPLE" AND TWO LEADING DAILIES IN THE LARGEST CITIES: "NEW HANOI" AND "SAIGON LIBERATION." WHILE NOT A COMPREHENSIVE LISTING, THIS GIVES US A GOOD SURVEY OF HOW THE LEADERSHIP IS FEATURED IN THE MOST PROMINENT OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS.) ¶9. (SBU) IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS, FROM OCTOBER 1, 2000-MARCH 31, 2001, IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS, WE CONTINUED TO SEE THE SAME TRENDS ORIGINALLY DOCUMENTED PREVIOUSLY: ROUGHLY HALF OF THE POLITBURO HAVE POSITIONS WITH LARGELY "PUBLIC" FACES THAT INVOLVE SIGNIFICANT APPEARANCES IN THE PUBLIC EYE. THE OTHER HALF WORKS LARGELY IN POSITIONS DEALING WITH INTERNAL CPV AFFAIRS AND REGULAR FROM REGULAR PUBLIC EXPOSURE. THUS, TRACKING THE PUBLIC APPEARANCES OF THE POLITBURO IN THE STATE-CONTROLLED MEDIA GIVES ONLY AN INCOMPLETE, PARTIAL VIEW OF THE ACTIVITIES AND IMPORTANCE OF SENIOR LEADERS. BUT IT REVEALS HOW THE CPV WISHES TO CONVEY ITSELF TO ITS PUBLIC, AND THUS IS A USEFUL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IN ANALYZING THE ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE LEADERSHIP ELITE. ¶10. (SBU) DURING THIS PERIOD, NOT SURPRISINGLY, AMONG THE MOST PROMINENTLY FEATURED POLITBURO FIGURES IN THE MEDIA WERE THE TOP FIVE OFFICIALS WHO CONSTITUTE THE STANDING COMMITTEE. EACH OF THEM HAS AN IMPORTANT "PUBLIC RESPONSIBILITY" REPRESENTING THE CPV AND THE GOVERNMENT: CPV GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU, PRESIDENT LUONG, PRIME MINISTER KHAI, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH, AND FATHERLAND FRONT CHAIR DUYET. IN ADDITION, FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER DUNG, HANOI PARTY CHIEF TRONG, HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF TRIET AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER CAM ALSO MAINTAINED PROMINENT PUBLIC PROFILES IN THE MEDIA. OF ALL OF THESE MENTIONED ABOVE, THEIR PUBLIC PROFILE REFLECTS GENERALLY THEIR RELATIVE CLOUT AS AMONG THE KEY "PLAYERS" IN THE CPV LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNMENT. DEPUTY PM CAM IS PERHAPS THE ONE EXCEPTION. AS DEPUTY PM OVERSEEING FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE ISSUES, HIS PUBLIC PROFILE IS DRIVEN BY FOREIGN VISITORS. HE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL RETIRE AT THE CPV CONGRESS. ¶11. (SBU) MOST ALL OF THE LEADERS MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE FIGURED PROMINENTLY IN THE JOCKEYING OVER THE PAST MONTHS FOR A SPOT IN THE NEW SLATE OF LEADERS TO BE APPROVED AT THE CONGRESS -- PHIEU, MANH, LUONG, TRONG, DUNG AND TRIET. IN FACT, ONLY ONE OTHER POLITBURO MEMBER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED FOR A POSSIBLE SENIOR POSITION WHO IS NOT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00952 03 OF 06 201135Z IN THIS "PUBLIC GROUP": CPV ORGANIZATIONAL AFFAIRS CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN. AN, A FINALIST WHO LOST OUT TO PHIEU FOR THE TOP JOB IN 1997, HAS REMAINED LARGELY IN THE SHADOWS SINCE THEN. IN THE ENDGAME TO SUCCEED PHIEU, HE AGAIN PROVED TO BE THE MAIN ALTERNATIVE. AT THE PRE-CONGRESS MEETING APRIL 16 HE REPORTEDLY RECEIVED SERIOUS CONSIDERATION FOR THE POST AFTER MANH INITIALLY DEMURRED. (IN THE END, MANH APPARENTLY DID SO FOR TACTICAL REASONS, IN PART TO SECURE THE WITHDRAWAL OF ALL SENIOR ADVISORS FROM THE SCENE.) -------------- PHIEU BARNSTORMED TO TRY TO SAVE HIS SKIN ... -------------- ¶12. (C) LE KHA PHIEU, 69, HAS SERVED AS GENERAL SECRETARY SINCE DECEMBER 1997. A YEAR AGO HE SEEMED FIRMLY ENSCONCED IN HIS POSITION AND LOOKED TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED POWER WITH THE AID OF FORMER PRESIDENT ANH, HIMSELF A MILITARY MAN. HOWEVER, ANH AND THE OTHER SENIOR ADVISORS TURNED AGAINST PHIEU, OWING TO HIS POOR MANAGEMENT OF CPV AFFAIRS AND MISCUES ON ECONOMIC REFORM AND RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THE U.S., AS WELL AS RUMORED MISUSE OF MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AGAINST HIS CPV SENIOR COLLEAGUES. PHIEU ALSO MAY HAVE OVERREACHED BY TRYING TO COMBINE THE PRESIDENCY WITH THE GENERAL SECRETARY POST -- A COMBINATION THAT WOULD HAVE DISRUPTED THE TRADITIONAL, CAREFULLY BALANCED ARRANGEMENT AMONG THE THREE TOP LEADERS REPRESENTING VIETNAM'S THREE REGIONS AND ALSO DIFFERENT POLICY LINES AND ORGANIZATIONAL ENTITIES (CPV, MILITARY, GOVERNMENT). THE COUP DE GRACE MAY WELL HAVE BEEN HIS CALLING FOR ELIMINATING THE SENIOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00952 03 OF 06 201135Z ADVISOR POSITIONS. (IRONICALLY, IT APPEARS MANH WILL BE SUCCESSFUL WHERE PHIEU FAILED, WITH THE SENIOR ADVISORS AGREEING TO STEP BACK. IN ADDITION, RUMORS CIRCULATE APRIL 20 THAT MANH ALSO MAY HAVE BEEN OFFERED THE TWO CONCURRENT POSTS OF PRESIDENT AND GENERAL SECRETARY, WITH CURRENT PRESIDENT LUONG RUMORED TO BE MOVING OVER TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIR. WHILE POSSIBLE, WE DOUBT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AT THIS TIME.) ¶13. (SBU) IN OUR TRACKING SURVEY OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS, PHIEU WAS FEATURED ON 79 DIFFERENT DATES IN PAGE ONE ARTICLES IN THE MEDIA, AND BEFITTING HIS POSITION AS THE COUNTRY'S MOST POWERFUL FIGURE, HE WAS DEPICTED LEADING THE CPV AND NATION IN ITS POLITICAL LIFE. ONE OF THE STRIKING THINGS WE NOTE FROM OUR TRACKING PROJECT IS HOW ACTIVE PHIEU WAS OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS IN "BARNSTORMING" THE COUNTRY, VISITING LOCAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN FAR-FLUNG PROVINCES AND ALL THE COUNTRY'S MAJOR CITIES. SOURCES TELL US THIS HAS BEEN A KEY PART OF PHIEU'S STRATEGY IN RALLYING SUPPORT TO RESIST THE CAMPAIGN OF THE THREE SENIOR ADVISORS, ANH, MUOI AND KIET, TO HAVE HIM STEP DOWN. (OF COURSE, THE LETTER OF THE SENIOR ADVISORS AND OTHER BACKROOM POLITICKING THAT WOULD BE A STAPLE OF POLITICAL REPORTING IN WASHINGTON, BANGKOK OR MANILA HAS NEVER BEEN MENTIONED IN VIETNAMESE STATE-RUN MEDIA. THE FOREIGN CORRESPONDENTS BASED HERE HAVE REPORTED WIDELY ON THIS, OF COURSE.) ¶14. (SBU) AMONG OTHER CPV GATHERINGS, PHIEU WAS FEATURED PROMINENTLY IN "THE PEOPLE" GIVING KEYNOTE ADDRESSES TO THE PARTY CONGRESSES FOR KEY ORGANIZATIONS, SUCH AS THE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY'S GENERAL POLICE DEPARTMENT (NOV. 8),THE CPV CONGRESSES FOR MILITARY REGIONS 3 (NOV. 13) AND 5 (NOV. 21),AND THE CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (NOV. 28). HIS KEYNOTE ADDRESSES OPENING AND CLOSING EACH OF THE CPV CENTRAL COMMITTEE PLENUMS WERE REPRINTED IN THE STATE MEDIA. PHIEU WAS DEPICTED MEETING PRESIDENT CLINTON NOV. 18, AND VIETNAMESE MEDIA WENT TO UNPRECEDENTED EFFORTS TO DESCRIBE PHIEU'S MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT, INCLUDING HIS STRIDENT DEFENSE OF SOCIALISM, WHICH PROVED TO BE ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT CONTRIBUTED TO THE BROAD CRITICISM OF PHIEU, PARTICULARLY FROM REFORMERS IN THE CPV. ¶15. (SBU) PHIEU WAS ALSO FEATURED ADDRESSING PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES AROUND THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING THOSE IN HA GIANG IN THE FAR NORTH (DEC. 4),HO CHI MINH CITY (DEC. 19),HANOI (DEC. 28),NINH BINH AND THANH HOA (JAN. 2), AMONG MANY OTHERS. PHIEU ALSO ADDRESSED THE NATIONAL MILITARY CONGRESS AND WAS AWARDED A GOLDEN STAR MEDAL BY THE PAVN GENERAL POLITICAL DEPARTMENT, WHICH HE FORMERLY HEADED. IN ADDITION, PHIEU TRAVELED AROUND THE COUNTRY FOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00952 04 OF 06 201136Z MANY OTHER REPRESENTATIONAL FUNCTIONS; HE VISITED FLOODED AN GIANG PROVINCE IN THE MEKONG DELTA IN EARLY OCTOBER AND FLOODED REGIONS OF HCMC AT THE END OF THE MONTH. HE MET MANY OTHER VISITING DIGNITARIES, RANGING FROM THE ALGERIAN PRESIDENT (OCT. 16),A VISITING CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY DELEGATION ATTENDING A WORKSHOP ON SOCIALISM (NOV. 11),THE INDIAN PRIME MINISTER (JAN. 9),THE PRC DEFENSE MINISTER (FEB. 9),THE CUBAN FOREIGN MINISTER (FEB. 24),AND RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN (MARCH 2). IN SUM, PHIEU MAINTAINED AN ACTIVE PUBLIC SCHEDULE, PARTICULARLY WHEN ONE NOTES HIS NURTURING OF KEY CPV ALLIES IN THE MILITARY, PUBLIC SECURITY AND PARTY CADRE AREAS. -------------- -------------- ... WHILE MANH'S ONGOING NETWORKING MADE ALLIES OVER TIME -------------- -------------- ¶16. (C) NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NONG DUC MANH, 60, IN CONTRAST TO PHIEU, SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWLY AND STEADILY DEVELOPED A BROAD NETWORK OF ADMIRERS AND SUPPORTERS IN SENIOR CPV RANKS. IN THE END, HIS STRONG SUPPORT AMONG THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE DECISIVE FACTOR IN BRINGING HIM TO HIS LIKELY "CORONATION" APRIL 22 AS THE NEW GENERAL SECRETARY. CONTRASTED WITH HIS PREDECESSORS PHIEU, DO MUOI, TRUONG CHINH AND LE DUAN, WHO USED EITHER REVOLUTIONARY OR MILITARY CREDENTIALS TO REACH THE TOP SPOT, MANH'S PATH TO THE SEAT OF POWER WAS BUILT PATIENTLY THROUGH HIS WORK AS HEAD OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SINCE ¶1992. TRADITIONALLY, THE ASSEMBLY HAS BEEN A WEAK RUBBERSTAMP IN VIETNAMESE POLITICS, BUT MANH PRESIDED OVER A PERIOD OF THE ASSEMBLY'S ASSUMING MUCH GREATER PROMINENCE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00952 04 OF 06 201136Z AS A MORE GENUINELY DELIBERATIVE BODY. ON OCCASION THE ASSEMBLY HAS BUCKED THE POLITBURO'S RECOMMENDATIONS AND PRESSED FOR THE SACKING OF NOMINATED CANDIDATES DEEMED INCOMPETENT. ALSO DURING HIS TENURE THE ASSEMBLY BEGAN LIVE QUESTIONING OF MINISTERS ON NATIONAL TELEVISION AND VIGOROUSLY DEBATED SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES, WITH MEMBERS STRONGLY DEFENDING THE INTERESTS OF THEIR LOCAL CONSTITUENTS. IF ANYTHING, MANH'S PUBLIC VISIBILITY AND THE ROLE HE WAS PLAYING TO MEET PUBLIC INTERESTS ENHANCED HIS RECOGNITION IN LEADERSHIP AS WELL AS PUBLIC CIRCLES. ¶17. (C) MANH'S SMOOTH STYLE OF MANAGING THE ASSEMBLY -- BUSINESS-LIKE AND COMMITTED TO BUILDING BROAD COALITIONS AMONG THE CPV'S DISPARATE FACTIONS AND SECTORAL GROUPS REPRESENTED IN THE FATHERLAND FRONT -- HAS WON HIGH MARKS. HIS STRONG "CORRIDOR REPUTATION" IN THE HALLS OF THE ASSEMBLY HAS BEEN BUILT PATIENTLY OVER A DECADE OF WORK; CONSISTENTLY OVER THE PAST YEAR HE HAS POLLED AMONG THE MOST RESPECTED MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE. ONE KEY LIEUTENANT AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SAYS MANH IS "DEVOTED, WORK-ORIENTED AND CLEAN," WITHOUT THE CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS HANGING OVER HIM THAT OTHERS (INCLUDING PHEIU) HAVE FACED RECENTLY. MANH REPORTEDLY IS A "GOOD LISTENER," AND WE HAVE NOTED HE IS AN ENGAGING INTERLOCUTOR FOR VISITING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS. MANH'S LIEUTENANT SAYS HIS MENTOR, HOWEVER, MAY NOT HAVE DEEP SUPPORT FROM KEY FACTIONS IN THE CPV'S SENIOR RANKS -- THOUGH HE COMMANDS BROAD SUPPORT -- AND THIS COULD COMPLICATE HIS EARLY TIME IN OFFICE. A DEPUTY HEAD OF THE GOVERNMENT'S ETHNIC MINORITIES COMISSION, WHO FORMERLY WORKED FOR MANH, SAID HE IS PRAGMATIC, COLLABORATIVE AND RESPECTFUL OF OTHERS, AND THESE PERSONAL TRAITS ARE PART OF THE SOURCE OF HIS APPEAL. ¶18. (SBU) DURING THE OCTOBER-MARCH PERIOD, MANH WAS FEATURED 53 TIMES IN THE THREE KEY VIETNAMESE PRESS ORGANS WE ANALYZED. ON NOVEMBER 14 HE OPENED THE FALL SESSION OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, PRESIDING OVER THE BODY'S BUSINESS UNTIL ITS RECESS DECEMBER 9. THE FALL SESSION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON DISCUSSION AND APPROVAL OF THE 2001 BUDGET AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLAN, THOUGH LIKE OTHER SESSIONS IT INCLUDED QUESTIONING OF MINISTERS AND A MODEST LAWMAKING AGENDA (WHICH IN THE FALL SESSION IS GENERALLY LIGHTER THAN THE SPRING'S). FOLLOWING THE FALL SESSION, HE CHAIRED THE MONTHLY MEETINGS OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY STANDING COMMITTEE, WHICH CONDUCTS THE ASSEMBLY'S ONGOING BUSINESS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. ¶19. (C) A LARGE PORTION OF MANH'S "PUBLIC" APPEARANCES IN THE MEDIA WAS TIED TO PROTOCOL FUNCTIONS AS HEAD OF THE ASSEMBLY: ON OCTOBER 4 HE MET THE CHAIRMAN OF THE VISITING JAPAN-VIETNAM FRIENDSHIP PARLIAMENTARIANS ASSOCIATION (WHO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00952 05 OF 06 201136Z HAS RETURNED THIS WEEK AS ONE OF THE VISITING DELEGATIONS TO THE CONGRESS). HE ALSO RECEIVED PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATIONS FROM CAMBODIA, AUSTRALIA, MONGOLIA, FRANCE, THAILAND AND LAOS, AMONG OTHERS. ON MARCH 2 HE MET VISITING RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN. ON NOVEMBER 17 HE MET WITH SEN. KERRY AND FOUR HOUSE MEMBERS ACCOMPANYING PRESIDENT CLINTON ON HIS HISTORIC TRIP TO VIETNAM. IN THIS MEETING, MANH DEFENDED THE 15 YEARS OF ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE "DOI MOI" (RENOVATION) PROCESS, AND, IN RESPONSE TO KERRY'S QUESTION, SAID VIETNAM DID NOT NEED MULTIPLE PARTIES SINCE "ALL SECTOR GROUPS" OF VIETNAM ARE REPRESENTED IN THE ASSEMBLY, THE CPV AND THE FATHERLAND FRONT. (COMMENT: WHILE CLEARLY A PRAGMATIC, MORE MODERN LEADER THAN PHIEU, MANH TO ALL APPEARANCES IS A LOYAL, COMMITTED COMMUNIST WHO DOES NOT ENVISION ANY "EVOLUTION" TO A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM. END COMMENT.) IN JANUARY MANH MET THE VISITING GEPHARDT CODEL. ¶20. (SBU) MANH ALSO CARRIED WATER FOR THE CPV IN ITS INTERNAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE CONGRESS. HE ADDRESSED PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN BAC GIANG IN DECEMBER AND BAC KAN AND THAI NGUYEN IN JANUARY. HE ATTENDED THE HANOI CPV CONGRESS IN DECEMBER, AND WAS FEATURED ATTENDING BOTH ROUNDS OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S 11TH PLENUMS DURING THE PERIOD (INCLUDING THE FINAL 12TH PLENUM AND PRE-CONGRESS ONLY DAYS AGO IN MID-APRIL). ON DECEMBER 1, HE, LIKE ALL THE OTHER SENIOR LEADERS, ATTENDED A GATHERING FOR LE DUC ANH'S 80TH BIRTHDAY. FOR TET CELEBRATIONS IN LATE JANUARY HE JOINED A CPV DELEGATION PAYING TRIBUTE TO HO CHI MINH; VISITED THE HAI BA TRUNG DISTRICT OF HANOI, WHICH HE FORMALLY REPRESENTS IN THE ASSEMBLY; AND TRAVELED TO VINH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00952 05 OF 06 201136Z PHUC PROVINCE. IN FEBRUARY HE WAS DEPICTED COMMEMORATING THE 71ST ANNIVERSARY OF THE FOUNDING OF THE CPV. ¶21. (SBU) AS PART OF HIS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND CPV DUTIES, MANH HAD A WIDE RANGE OF MEETINGS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN RETROSPECT AS PART OF THE BROAD "CONSTITUENT BUILDING" HE HAS DONE DURING THE PAST DECADE. AS A GOOD LISTENER AND ENGAGING CONVERSATIONALIST, MANH HAS BEEN QUIETLY BUILDING A WELLSPRING OF GOOD OPINION THROUGH THESE KINDS OF MEETING. ON OCT. 19 HE ATTENDED THE 70TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE FOUNDING OF THE VIETNAM WOMEN'S UNION. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, HE WAS PICTURED IN THE PRESS MEETING WITH VIETNAMESE GROUPS HANDLING THE PRESS, POVERTY REDUCTION PROGRAMS, THE RAILWAY SERVICE, THE POSTAL SERVICE, WOMEN'S ISSUES, AND THE CPV YOUTH UNION, AMONG MANY OTHERS. ¶22. (C) A MEMBER OF THE ETHNIC TAY MINORITY, AND THE ONLY MINORITY MEMBER SERVING IN THE POLITBURO, MANH HELD A HIGH PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEETING MINORITY MEMBERS. HE HELD WORKING SESSIONS WITH CPV LEADERS OF THE COMMITTEE FOR ETHNIC PEOPLE AND MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS, MET MINORITY REPRESENTATIVES FROM QUANG NINH AND DAKLAK PROVINCES IN HANOI, AND VISITED SEVERAL PROVINCES WITH LARGE MINORITY POPULATIONS. FROM OCT. 12-16 HE VISITED FLOOD VICTIMS IN NORTHWESTERN LAI CHAU PROVINCE AND HAD WORKING MEETINGS THERE. ON MARCH 9 HE SPOKE TO 60 ETHNIC MINORITY OFFICIALS FROM DAKLAK WHO ARE ATTENDING THE PROVINCE'S CPV POLITICS SCHOOL. MANH APPEALED TO MINORITIES TO OBEY THE LAW AND COOPERATE WITH AUTHORITIES, PRAISED MINORITIES' CONTRIBUTIONS TO NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND URGED TEACHERS TO FOCUS ON PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE IN THEIR CLASSES. (COMMENT: PARTICULARLY IN THE WAKE OF FEBRUARY'S SOMETIMES- VIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WE EXPECT MANH WILL BE PUT FORWARD MORE FREQUENTLY AS A NEW SIGN OF THE CPV'S TOLERANCE INTEGRATION OF MINORITIES. UNDER MANH'S LEADERSHIP WE DO NOT EXPECT DRAMATIC CHANGES IN VIETNAM'S POLICIES TOWARD MINORITIES, HOWEVER. SENIOR CPV LEADERS ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK THE GVN WILL UNDERTAKE A REINVIGORATED DEVELOPMENT PLAN TO HELP THE SEVERELY IMPOVERISHED CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CLEARLY THIS AREA HAS GOTTEN THE ATTENTION OF SENIOR LEADERS, AND WE BELIEVE THEY RECOGNIZE THAT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LIVES OF THE REGION'S "MONTAGNARDS" ARE NEEDED IF THERE IS NOT TO BE FURTHER RADICALIZATION OF THE CITIZENS. HOWEVER, TRANSLATING SUCH CONCERN INTO ACTION IS A HUGE CHALLENGE FOR THE GVN. END COMMENT.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00952 06 OF 06 201136Z ¶23. (C) COMMENT: ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING INSIGHTS TO COME FROM OUR TRACKING PROJECT IS HOW MANH HAS QUIETLY AND CONSISTENTLY BEEN BUILDING PERSONAL SUPPORT AMONG THE CPV'S DISPARATE CONSTITUENT GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE PAST MONTHS AND YEARS. IN THE END, HIS WINSOME THOUGH NON-CHARISMATIC PERSONALITY, HIS PRAGMATIC POLICY BENT, HIS PERSONAL LACK OF "SCANDAL," AND HIS COLLEGIAL LISTENING SKILLS SEEM TO HAVE WON THE DAY IN THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE. LIKE ALL THOSE WHO WIN CAMPAIGNS, HOWEVER, NOW COMES THE HARD PART. END COMMENT. PETERSON CONFIDENTIAL