CENTRAL COMMITTEE PRESSURES GENERAL SECRETARY TO STEP DOWN; ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH APPARENT SUCCESSOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000905 SIPDIS STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR VM DPOL SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMITTEE PRESSURES GENERAL SECRETARY TO STEP DOWN; ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH APPARENT SUCCESSOR REF: HANOI 638 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER DAVID YOUNG; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: ONLY DAYS BEFORE THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS BEGINS APRIL 19, THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE HAS DEALT GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU A SEVERE BLOW BY REFUSING TO RECOMMEND HIM FOR ANOTHER TERM. A PREFERENCE BALLOT AMONG THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE GAVE TOP MARKS TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH, AND SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT HE WAS CONFIRMED AT A PRE-CONGRESS MEETING APRIL 16 TO BE THE NEXT GENERAL SECRETARY. HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF TRIET, WHO ALSO RECEIVED SOME SUPPORT FOR THE TOP POST, REPORTEDLY WILL SUCCEED KHAI AS PRIME MINISTER, BEING "ELECTED" BY THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY. PRESIDENT LUONG REPORTEDLY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE CONFLICTING PRESS REPORT HAS CPV ORGANIZATIONAL CHIEF AN PEGGED AS GENERAL SECRETARY; WE PREDICT HE WILL REMAIN IN THE POLITBURO AND COULD LAND ANOTHER SENIOR POSITION. ¶3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): NONE OF THIS IS FINAL UNTIL CONFIRMED BY THE PARTY CONGRESS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THE DECISIONS BY THIS WEEKEND. MANH, WHO IS A MODERATE IN THE LEADERSHIP AND HAS HELPED PROFESSIONALIZE THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND GRADUALLY EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE, AND THE DYNAMIC SOUTHERN REFORMER TRIET IN TIME MAY ADD A NEW DYNAMISM TO THE FACTIONALIZED LEADERSHIP. OTHER REFORMERS APPARENTLY BOUND FOR THE POLITBURO INCLUDE TRADE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00905 01 OF 02 171111Z MINISTER VU KHOAN AND DEPUTY PM KHIEM. IN THE SHORT TERM, HOWEVER, THE LEADERSHIP LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FUNDAMENTALLY CAUTIOUS GROUP. OVER TIME, THOUGH, GREATER PROMINENCE FOR MORE DYNAMIC REFORMERS WILL HELP BOOST THE PACE OF AND THE LEADERSHIP'S COMMITMENT TO THE ECONOMIC REFORM PROGRAM. END SUMMARY. CENTRAL COMMITTEE TELLS PHIEU HE NEEDS TO GO -------------- ¶4. (C) SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE WEIGHED IN STRONGLY AGAINST GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU AT THE RECENTLY COMPLETED 12TH PLENUM. DURING THE PLENUM, PHIEU SOUGHT TO RETAIN HIS SUPREME POSITION, BUT RECEIVED ONLY 40-45 PERCENT OF THE VOTES OF THE ROUGHLY 165 CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS. ON A SUBSEQUENT BALLOT, WHICH WAS A "PREFERENCE" VOTE FOR THE TOP JOB, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH REPORTEDLY RECEIVED ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES, HO CHI MINH CITY CPV CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET RECEIVED 30 PERCENT, AND THE REMAINDER WAS SPLIT BETWEEN HANOI PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN PHU TRONG AND PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG, ACCORDING TO A VIETNAMESE-AMERICAN BUSINESSMAN WHO SPOKE WITH TWO CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS. THOUGH THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE SESSION, WHICH ENDED APRIL 10, APPARENTLY DID NOT FORMALLY CHOOSE PHIEU'S SUCCESSOR, CLEARLY THE GROUP SEEMED TO HAVE STRONGLY SIGNALED TO PHIEU HIS TIME WAS UP. OFFICIAL VIETNAMESE MEDIA HAVE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE FINALIZED A PROPOSED LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR A NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE, THOUGH THEY DID NOT COMMENT ON THE GENERAL SECRETARY POST, NOR NAME ANY OF THESE PERSONS. SEPARATELY, A SOURCE TOLD US PHIEU WAS NOT INCLUDED ON THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00905 01 OF 02 171111Z NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE LIST, WHICH IF TRUE WOULD SEAL HIS FATE. ¶5. (C) DURING THE PAST WEEK, HANOI HAS BEEN RIFE WITH RUMORS ABOUT WHETHER MANH WOULD INDEED TAKE THE POST. ONE OF HIS KEY LIEUTENANTS ON THE ASSEMBLY STAFF SAID MANH MIGHT NOT WANT TO CHALLENGE FOR THE SPOT AT THIS TIME, SINCE HE IS BY NATURE NOT COMBATIVE. OTHERS ECHOED THIS: ONE SOURCE SAID MANH HAD TURNED DOWN THE OFFER, AND ANOTHER SPECULATED MANH WOULD BIDE HIS TIME, WHICH COULD OPEN THE WAY FOR ONE OF THE OTHER MENTIONED CANDIDATES, SUCH AS CPV ORGANIZATIONAL CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN (WHO WAS A FINALIST TO PHIEU FOR THE POST IN DECEMBER 1997) OR TRONG. ¶6. (C) HOWEVER, ON APRIL 17 WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE APPARENTLY JUST-COMPLETED "PRE-CONGRESS" MEETING OF THE CPV LEADERSHIP. (BA DINH SQUARE WAS FREE OF OFFICIAL CARS AND OPEN TO BOTH VEHICULAR AND PEDESTRIAN TRAFFIC THIS MORNING, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE PLENUM BEGAN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PRE-CONGRESS. WE THUS DEDUCE THE PRE-CONGRESS CONCLUDED YESTERDAY.) ONE DISCERNING SOURCE ON LEADERSHIP ISSUES REPORTS THAT THE NEW LEADERSHIP LINE-UP HAS BEEN SET AND BLESSED AT THE PRE- CONGRESS. ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, MANH WILL BECOME CPV GENERAL SECRETARY "EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY"; APPARENTLY PHIEU "HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT OF HIS OFFICE." LUONG WILL REMAIN AS PRESIDENT, AND KHAI WILL STAY IN PLACE AS PRIME MINISTER UNTIL MAY 2001 (WHICH WOULD BE WHEN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WOULD NEXT MEET TO APPROVE CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT POSITIONS). AT THAT TIME, TRIET WOULD BECOME THE NEW PM (WITH HIM BECOMING THE NEW FIRST DEPUTY PM IN THE INTERIM). THIS SOURCE DID NOT KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO CURRENT FIRST DEPUTY PM NGUYEN TAN DUNG, WHO LONG HAS BEEN SEEN AS LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP. THIS SOURCE ALSO SAYS FM NIEN WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE, AND VU KHOAN WOULD ASSUME DEPUTY PM CAM'S PORTFOLIO WITH OVERSIGHT OVER BOTH FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE. COMMENT: POTENTIALLY A MORE REFORM-MINDED LEADERSHIP -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) COMMENT: THESE REPORTED CHANGES SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH "THE REALM OF THE POSSIBLE" WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING OVER THE PAST MONTHS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE WIDELY VARYING REPORTS. THOUGH OUR INFORMATION IS ADMITTEDLY INCOMPLETE, THIS APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT UNIQUE POLITICAL MOMENT IN VIETNAM, IN THAT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE APPEARS TO HAVE RULED CONTRARY TO THE POLITBURO, WITH THE FINAL DECISION HAVING BEEN FORWARDED TO THE PRE-CONGRESS MEETING ONLY DAYS BEFORE THE CONGRESS ITSELF. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00905 02 OF 02 171111Z ¶8. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): IF CONFIRMED, SUCH A NEW LINEUP WOULD BE COLLECTIVELY MORE REFORM-MINDED THAN THE CURRENT VERSION. MANH, A MODERATE IN THE LEADERSHIP WHO HAS PRESSED FOR THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO BECOME MORE PROFESSIONAL AND TO ASSUME A MORE IMPORTANT ROLE IN LAWMAKING, WOULD BE A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE HIGHLY IDEOLOGICALLY PHIEU. MANH, WHILE TO ALL APPEARANCES A VERY COMMITTED COMMUNIST, SEEMS TO BE A QUIET COALITION BUILDER, AND HE HAS BEEN GRAPPLING WITH MUCH MORE PRACTICAL QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE AS ASSEMBLY CHAIR THAN HAS PHIEU. THAT SAID, MANH'S COMMENTS TO VISITING SENATOR KERRY DURING THE RECENT POTUS TRIP ARE A REMINDER WE SHOULD NOT EXPECT MOVEMENT ON POLITICAL REFORM: MANH WAS ADAMANT IN DEFENDING VIETNAM'S POLITICAL SYSTEM AS FULLY "DEMOCRATIC," SAYING VIETNAM DOES NOT CONTEMPLATE MULTIPLE PARTIES IN THE FUTURE. ¶9. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT OVER TIME, THOUGH, WOULD BE THAT SUCH A NEW LINE-UP, IF CONFIRMED, WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE IN THE BROADER PROCESS OF GENERATIONAL CHANGE TO A YOUNGER, MORE TECHNOCRATIC, "POST- WAR" LEADERSHIP. MANH, 60, IS NEARLY A FULL DECADE YOUNGER THAN PHIEU. TRIET, 58, GETS HIGH MARKS IN HCMC FOR HIS WORK AT THE FOREFRONT OF ECONOMIC REFORM. COUPLED WITH MORE DYNAMIC REFORMERS LIKE VU KHOAN, ONE OF THE KEY ARCHITECTS OF OUR BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT, AND DEPUTY PM KHIEM, THIS "COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP" COULD BECOME RE- ENERGIZED AND MORE WILLING TO EMBRACE A MORE POSITIVE VISION OF THE OPPORTUNITIES OF GLOBALIZATION -- RATHER THAN ONLY HARPING ON ITS PERILS. THAT SAID, WE MUST CAUTION THAT IDEOLOGUES SUCH AS TRONG, HARD-LINE CPV CADRE, AND THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00905 02 OF 02 171111Z POWERFUL MINISTRIES OF DEFENSE AND PUBLIC SECURITY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS CHECKS ON ANY "JEFFERSONIAN" VISIONS THAT MIGHT DANCE THROUGH ANY CENTRAL COMMITTEE HEADS. END COMMENT. PETERSON CONFIDENTIAL