10TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SESSION: AN OVERVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 003019 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2011 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL ETRD VM HUMANR DPOL BTA SUBJECT: 10TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SESSION: AN OVERVIEW REF: A. HANOI 2953 B. HANOI 2980 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ROBERT C. PORTER, REASON: 1.5 (D) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 03019 01 OF 03 160922Z ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. THE UPCOMING NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) SESSION WILL CONVENE ON NOVEMBER 20. ITS IMPORTANCE TO THE US WILL BE PRIMARILY IN ITS CONSIDERATION -- AND EXPECTED RATIFICATION -- OF THE U.S.-VIETNAM BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT (BTA). ANOTHER TOP PRIORITY WILL BE TO REVISE THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION LAW IN TIME FOR THE 2002 ELECTIONS (FOR THE TERM RUNNING UNTIL 2007), APPARENTLY AIMED AT INCREASING THE OVERALL NUMBER OF DEPUTIES AND THE NUMBER OF FULL-TIME DEPUTIES. SEVERAL CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AND REVISED LAWS ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE NA AND THE GOVERNMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM GOALS GENERALLY. THE VIETNAM HUMAN RIGHTS ACT MAY BE A CONTENTIOUS ISSUE BUT LITTLE LIVELY DEBATE IS OTHERWISE NOW EXPECTED. THE NA CONTINUES ITS SLOW EVOLUTION INTO A MORE REPRESENTATIVE, MORE GENUINELY DELIBERATE LEGISLATIVE BODY, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERSHADOWED BY THE INDISPUTABLE LEADERSHIP ROLE OF THE VIETNAMESE COMMUNIST PARTY (VCP). END SUMMARY. ¶3. (U) THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY GENERALLY CONDUCTS TWO SESSIONS EACH YEAR OVER ITS FIVE-YEAR LIFE SPAN. THE TENTH SESSION OF THE 10TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WILL CONVENE ON NOVEMBER 20 AND IS EXPECTED TO RUN UNTIL ABOUT DECEMBER 25. CHARGE, ALONG WITH OTHER CHIEFS OF MISSION, WILL ATTEND ITS OPENING SESSION AS OBSERVERS. ITS 450 DELEGATES WILL INITIALLY SIT THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF WORK REPORTS FROM THE PRIME MINISTER, NA CHAIRMAN, CHIEFS OF THE JUDICIAL AND SUPERVISION/CONTROL (PROCURACY) ORGANS, AND OTHER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 03019 01 OF 03 160922Z SENIOR OFFICIALS BEFORE GETTING DOWN TO THEIR MAIN TASKS, WHICH WILL ALSO INCLUDE PASSING A BUDGET AND REVIEWING FIVE YEAR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PLANS. THE POSSIBILITY HAS BEEN FLOATED OF AN UNUSUAL ELEVENTH SESSION IN FEBRUARY 2002 TO COVER LEFT-OVER ITEMS, SUCH AS A REVISED LABOR LAW, BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED. BTA --- ¶4. (C) VIETNAMESE OFFICIALS UP TO THE LEVEL OF VCP SECRETARY-GENERAL NONG DUC MANH HAVE MADE EXPLICIT THAT A TOP PRIORITY GOAL OF THIS SESSION IS NOT ONLY TO CONSIDER BUT ALSO TO RATIFY THE BTA. SO CERTAIN IS THE GVN OF THIS OUTCOME -- MOST LIKELY O/A NOVEMBER 28 (REF A) -- THAT S-G MANH IS APPARENTLY PLANNING A TRIP TO THE PRC BEGINNING ON NOVEMBER 29, AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DZUNG WILL LEAD A LARGE BTA-RELATED DELEGATION TO THE US ON DECEMBER 9. NA FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE VICE CHAIRMAN NGO ANH DUNG TOLD POL/C ON NOVEMBER 14 THAT HIS COMMITTEE HAD RECOMMENDED RATIFICATION AND THAT HE FULLY EXPECTED THE FULL NA APPROVAL BY WITHIN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE UPCOMING SESSION. HE NOTED THAT BTA WAS CLEARLY IN THE INTERESTS OF BOTH COUNTRIES, AND THAT THE DECISION BY THE US SENATE TO DE-LINK VOTES ON BTA AND VHRA (UNLIKE THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES' VOTE, HE STRESSED) MADE NA APPROVAL MUCH EASIER. ELECTION LAW CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 03019 01 OF 03 160922Z -------------- ¶5. (U) VARIOUS OFFICIALS AND PUBLIC STATEMENTS HAVE INDICATED THAT REVISIONS TO THE NA ELECTION LAW IN ADVANCE OF THE APRIL 2002 NA ELECTIONS (FOR THE 2002- 2007 TERM) IS ANOTHER TOP PRIORITY AND WILL PROBABLY BE CONSIDERED EARLY IN THE SESSION. FOLLOWING THE CLOSURE OF ITS FOURTH PLENUM ON NOVEMBER 13, THE VCP CENTRAL COMMITTEE ANNOUNCED ITS "IDEAS REGARDING THE DIRECTION OF THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY." THE POST-PLENUM ANNOUNCEMENT CALLED FOR MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT THE NEWLY ELECTED DELEGATES HAVE "SUFFICIENT STANDARDS" AND EMERGE FROM AN "APPROPRIATE STRUCTURE RESPONDING TO THE DEMANDS OF THE NEW SITUATION AND TASKS." (NOTE: THE PUBLIC STATEMENT DID NOT PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT ON THESE "NEW" ISSUES OR WHAT STRUCTURES WOULD BE MORE "APPROPRIATE." END NOTE) ¶6. (C) ACCORDING TO THE NA'S NGO ANH DUNG, TWO PROBABLE CHANGES TO THE LAW WOULD BE TO INCREASE THE OVERALL NUMBER OF DELEGATES FROM 450 TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 500 AND 550, AND TO INCREASE THE NUMBER OF FULL TIME DELEGATES. CURRENTLY, ONLY ABOUT 10 PCT OF DELEGATES WORK FULL-TIME AT THE NA, INCLUDING THE NA CHAIRMAN, NA VICE CHAIRMEN, AND CHAIRMEN OF THE MAJOR COMMITTEES. HE SAID THE GOAL WOULD BE TO HAVE ABOUT 25 PCT FULL-TIME DELEGATES, INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE FULL- TIME REPRESENTATIVE FROM EACH PROVINCE. ¶7. (C) SEPARATELY, NGUYEN CHI DZUNG, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 03019 02 OF 03 160923Z OF THE NA'S LEGISLATIVE STUDIES JOURNAL, INDICATED THAT 500 DELEGATES WAS THE PREFERRED TARGET, INCLUDING 150 FULL-TIME DELEGATES. DZUNG ADDED THAT ANOTHER GOAL WOULD BE TO ENCOURAGE MORE NON-PARTY DELEGATES (WHO OCCUPY ONLY ABOUT 14 PCT OF ALL SEATS NOW),AND THAT THE PARTY WOULD NO LONGER PROPOSE THAT ABOUT ONE-THIRD OF CURRENT NA DELEGATES BE RE-ELECTED. ¶8. (C) DUNG CONFIRMED THAT THE EXISTING NOMINATION PROCESS IN WHICH VARIOUS ORGANS, INCLUDING THE VCP AND THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND FRONT, PUT FORWARD CANDIDATES FOR EACH PROVINCE WOULD REMAIN INTACT AFTER REVISIONS TO THE ELECTION LAW. HE STRESSED THAT THE CURRENT SYSTEM ENSURES MORE CANDIDATES THAN SLOTS, AND THAT ELECTIONS ARE PROVINCE-WIDE. THE CONSTITUTION MANDATES THAT, IN PRINCIPLE, ELECTIONS ARE BASED ON "UNIVERSAL, EQUAL, DIRECT, AND SECRET SUFFRAGE." ORGANIZATION OF NA AND GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) BILLS TO REVISE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE NA AND OF THE GOVERNMENT ARE ALSO ON THE AGENDA OF THIS SESSION, AND WILL PROBABLY BE PASSED. (REF B REPORTED ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PROCESS, WHICH APPEARS SET TO CONCLUDE WITH A SHARPLY FOCUSED DEBATE ONLY ON A FEW PRIMARILY ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGES TO THE CONSTITUTION AT THIS SESSION.) DUNG NOTED THAT THE NA BILL WOULD ENHANCE THE NA'S SUPERVISORY ROLE AND MAKE MORE EXPLICIT ITS OVERSIGHT POWER REGARDING GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES AND FUNCTIONS. (NOTE: THE CONSTITUTION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 03019 02 OF 03 160923Z ALREADY GIVES THE NA "SUPREME CONTROL OVER ALL ACTIVITIES OF THE STATE." END NOTE) ¶10. (C) OTHER CHANGES MIGHT ALSO INCLUDE ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW NA COMMITTEES ON SUPERVISORY AFFAIRS AND ON PUBLIC COMPLAINTS, DUNG ADDED. HE ALSO NOTED THAT THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND LIMITED MEETING TIME OF THE NA MADE IT DIFFICULT TO PERFORM THESE FUNCTIONS. ACCORDING TO TRAN NHUNG, INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR FOR QUAN DOI NHAN DAN (PEOPLE'S ARMY DAILY),AN ADDITIONAL REVISION MIGHT BE TO MANDATE THREE RATHER THAN THE CURRENT TWO ANNUAL NA SESSIONS. ¶11. (C) THE REVISIONS TO THE LAW ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE GOVERNMENT MAY INCLUDE SOME ALTERATIONS IN THE LINE-UP OF MINISTRIES, DUNG SAID. IT WOULD BE BETTER, HE CLAIMED, TO REORGANIZE THE WHOLE ARRAY OF MINISTERIAL-EQUIVALENT ENTITIES AND TO CLARIFY HOW THEY SHOULD FIT MORE NEATLY INTO THE OVERALL GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE. HE PREDICTED NO MAJOR SURPRISES, HOWEVER. TRAN NHUNG NONETHELESS SPECULATED THAT THE NA MIGHT GIVE ITS BLESSING TO A FEW LONG-RUMORED SENIOR PERSONNEL CHANGES, INCLUDING MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN REPLACING DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN MANH CAM, AND VICE MINISTER OF INVESTMENT AND PLANNING VO HONG PHUC TAKING THE PLACE OF MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA. MOST OBSERVERS HAVE ASSUMED THAT MAJOR MINISTERIAL SWAPS WOULD AWAIT THE NEW NA NEXT SUMMER, HOWEVER. (NOTE: BOTH KHOAN AND GIA ARE NOW SLATED TO TRAVEL AS PART OF DPM DZUNG'S DELEGATION TO THE US IN DECEMBER IN THEIR CURRENT CAPACITIES. END NOTE) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 03019 02 OF 03 160923Z CONTENTIOUS ISSUES: VHRA -------------- ¶12. (C) AS NOTED IN REF B, EARLIER EXPECTATIONS OF A LIVELY DEBATE ON COMPREHENSIVE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE, OR EVEN ON SPECIFIC PROPOSED AMENDMENTS THAT RECEIVED WIDESPREAD CRITICISM, WERE EXPLICITLY DAMPENED BY STATEMENTS FROM THE 4TH PLENUM AND BY S-G MANH THAT ONLY "URGENT" AMENDMENTS THAT ARE "REALISTIC" AND HAVE "WON CONSENSUS" WOULD BE ON THE TABLE FOR THIS NA SESSION. THE ONLY SUBJECT THAT CONTINUES TO BE CITED AS A POSSIBL LIVEWIRE FOR DISCUSSION IS THE VHRA. SEVERAL COMENTATORS HAVE NOTED THAT DELEGATES MAY FEEL A DUTY TO SPOUT OUT AGAINST THIS "INTERFERENCE IN VIETNAM'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS," AND THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A FORMAL NA DENUNCIATION OF THIS BILL. NO CREDIBLE OBSERVERS HAVE PREDICTED EVEN THAT A SUDDEN U.S. SENATE VOTE IN FAVOR OF VHRA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WOULD DERAIL BTA, HOWEVER. COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) AS VIETNAM CONTINUES ITS SLOW AND USUALLY STEADY EVOLUTION INTO A SOCIETY INCREASINGLY RULED BY LAWS AND MORE TRANSPARENT, ACCOUNTABLE INSTITUTIONS, THE ENHANCED PROMINENCE OF THE NA OVER THE PAST DECADE IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN A WELCOME DEVELOPMENT. NONG DUC MANH DURING HIS OWN TENURE AS CHAIRMAN ACTIVELY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 03019 03 OF 03 160923Z FOSTERED THIS TREND, INCLUDING SUCH INNOVATIONS AS TELEVISED DEBATES AND QUESTION-AND-ANSWER SYSTEMS FOR STATE LEADERS. NOW IN HIS NEW SEAT AS PARTY CHIEF, HE SEEMS TO BE PULLING BACK FROM THIS ADVOCACY, AND THE STATURE OF THE NA MAY SUFFER, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. HE FLATLY ANNOUNCED IN OCTOBER THAT THE NA "WOULD" APPROVE THE BTA AND THE ORGANIZATIONAL BILLS CITED ABOVE, FOR EXAMPLE. THE 4TH PLENUM'S SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PRE-NA SESSION AND ITS EXPLICIT "GUIDANCE" ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS ARE FURTHER INDICATIONS OF THE FIRM INTENTION OF THE VCP TO DOMINATE THE ACTIVITIES OF THE NA. MANH'S OWN EXPECTED TRAVELS (EVEN THOUGH AS A NA DELEGATE HIMSELF FOR HANOI HE MIGHT WELL BE EXPECTED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ENTIRE SESSION) AND THOSE OF DPM DZUNG'S DELEGATION TO THE U.S. WILL ALMOST INEVITABLY DOMINATE LOCAL NEWS COVERAGE DURING THE FINAL WEEKS OF THE NA IN A WAY THAT WILL DIMINISH PUBLIC ATTENTION TO ITS PROCEEDINGS. ¶14. (C) ALL OF THIS MAY BE A SIMPLE REFLECTION THAT VIETNAM AND ITS MEDIA ARE INCREASINGLY LESS SINGLE- ISSUE ORIENTED. IT MAY ALSO BE A SIGN, HOWEVER, OF A CONTINUING COMPETITIO FOR INFLUENCE AND POWER BETWEEN MANH AND NA CHARMAN NGUYEN VAN AN. AN HAD BEEN ONE OF THE MAJO LOSERS IN THE S-G SWEEPSTAKES THIS PAST SPRING ND WAS REPORTEDLY THE CHOICE PUSHED BY FORMER PRESIDENT AND THEN-SENIOR ADVISER LE DUC ANH, NOW SAID TO BE IN CRITICAL CONDITION FOLLOWING A RECENT STROKE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE -- AND NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE -- EXPLANATION IS THAT THERE IS GROWING CONCERN WITHIN PARTY CIRCLES THAT AN OVERLY ASSERTIVE NA MAY NOT BEST CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 03019 03 OF 03 160923Z SERVE THE INTERESTS OF STRONG VCP LEADERSHIP AT A TIME OF NATIONAL CONCERN OVER STABILITY AND "SOLIDARITY." PORTER CONFIDENTIAL