EMBASSY REPRESENTATIONS ON ACTIONS AGAINST DISSIDENTS; WHAT DRIVES THE GVN?

UNCLAS HANOI 001388 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV AND EAP/PD/JMARTIN STATE ALSO FOR DRL/IRF AND S/S-O E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM KIRF VM HUMANR RELFREE SUBJECT: EMBASSY REPRESENTATIONS ON ACTIONS AGAINST DISSIDENTS; WHAT DRIVES THE GVN? REF: HCMC 0684 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) REFTEL PROVIDES LATEST AVAILABLE INFORMATION ON GVN ACTIONS AGAINST SENIOR MONKS OF THE UNIFIED BUDDHIST CHURCH OF VIETNAM (UBCV). THE AMBASSADOR AND OTHER EMBASSY/CONGEN OFFICIALS HAVE WEIGHED IN AT VARIOUS LEVELS, URGING THAT THE ADMINISTRATIVE DETENTION ORDER BE LIFTED FROM THICH QUANG DO, THAT THICH HUYEN QUANG BE ALLOWED TO TRAVEL FREELY TO HCMC, AND THAT OTHER OUTSPOKEN FIGURES SUCH AS FATHER NGUYEN VAN LY BE ALLOWED TO VOICE THEIR NON-VIOLENT OPINIONS WITHOUT GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE. DCM SPOKE WITH MFA AND OFFICE OF THE GOVERNMENT REPRESENTATIVES LAST WEEK, URGING THE GOVERNMENT TO FIND A WAY TO DEMONSTRATE ITS "HUMANITARIAN" CONCERNS OVER QUANG'S HEALTH SITUATION AND TO AVOID ANY PUBLIC CONFRONTATION WITH UBCV SUPPORTERS. IN THE PAST TWO DAYS, POLCOUNS, SENIOR ADVISOR AND POLOFF MET WITH MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY (MPS) DIRECTOR OF EXTERNAL RELATIONS TO PRESS THESE POINTS. LIKEWISE, THE AMBASSADOR HAS RAISED OUR CONCERNS WITH MINISTER OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT GIA AND OTHER SENIOR OFFICIALS. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO PRESS OUR INTERESTS WITH MFA AND THE GOVERNMENT COMMITTEE ON RELIGION. ¶2. (SBU) CLOSE POLICE SURVEILLANCE OF UBCV MONKS AT THEIR VARIOUS PAGODAS LIKELY WILL PREVENT ANY OF THEM FROM MEETING WITH THICH HUYEN QUANG OR THICH QUANG DO FOR THE TIME BEING. THE AUTHORITIES' SUCCESS IN BLOCKING THE VISIT TO THICH HUYEN QUANG NO DOUBT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HANOI 01388 080509Z FRUSTRATION AND RESENTMENT OF HIS SUPPORTERS. SHOULD QUANG'S HEALTH EVENTUALLY FAIL WHILE STILL IN ISOLATION IN QUANG NGAI, THE PUBLIC OUTCRY WILL GET CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND GO BEYOND THE UBCV AND ITS SUPPORTERS. VIETNAM'S DECISION TO PLACE THE ACTIVIST MONK THICH QUANG DO UNDER ADMINISTRATIVE DETENTION, WILL CONTINUE TO HURT VIETNAM'S INTERNATIONAL IMAGE. ¶3. (SBU) THE TOUGH ACTION AGAINST DISSIDENTS BEGAN DURING EX-PARTY CHIEF LE KHA PHIEU'S TENURE AND IS LIKELY ON "AUTOMATIC PILOT." THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE SEEN A STEADY ESCALATION OF ACTIVISM ON THE PART OF RELIGIOUS FIGURES SEEKING LARGELY TO PROMOTE A POLITICAL AGENDA IN VIETNAM. FOR A TIME, THEY SEEMED TO BE TRYING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAKENED POSITION OF PARTY-BOSS LE KHA PHIEU WHOSE LEADERSHIP WAS UNDER CHALLENGE. PHIEU, HOWEVER, SEEMED ABLE TO UTILIZE THESE ACTIVITIES AND THE DISTURBANCES IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO ADVANCE HIS OWN CLAIMS FOR MORE ATTENTION TO "STABILITY," RESULTING IN THE "GET TOUGH" POLICY AGAINST SUCH FIGURES AS FATHER LY, THICH QUANG DO, AND HOA HAO LEADER LIEM. ¶4. (SBU) PHIEU'S EFFORTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEED FOR "STABILITY" WERE UNABLE TO REVERSE HIS DECLINING POLITICAL STATURE AND HE WAS REPLACED BY NONG DUC MANH WHO CAME ABOARD WITH A "REFORMIST" IMAGE. BUT HIS FEW SHORT WEEKS OF TENURE SEEM TO HAVE INTENSIFIED THE "TESTING PERIOD" BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS. THE ACTIVISTS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THEIR POLITICAL AGENDA TO SEE WHAT THEY CAN GET AWAY WITH AND THE SECURITY FORCES HAVE BEEN ACTING MORE FORCEFULLY TO DEMONSTRATE THE NEED FOR THE LEADERSHIP TO RESTRICT UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HANOI 01388 080509Z THIS ACTIVISM. THE SECURITY FORCES -- ALREADY SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED IN PRESTIGE BY PUBLIC CRITICISM AT THE PARTY CONGRESS -- ARE PROBABLY ALSO "TESTING" TO SEE HOW THEY MAY FARE UNDER MANH'S LEADERSHIP. FOR HIS OWN PART, GENERAL SECRETARY MANH STILL NEEDS TIME TO FEEL OUT THESE COMPETING INTERESTS WITHIN THE PARTY, GOVERNMENT AND SOCIETY BEFORE HE AND THE OTHER NEW LEADERS CAN PUT THEIR IMPRINT ON NATIONAL POLICY. FOR THE MISSION AND THE USG, THIS IS A TIME TO COUNSEL "MODERATION" AND TO AVOID A PUBLIC CONFRONTATION ON THE ISSUES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH ALL SIDES TO SEEK NEW AVENUES OF CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT. PETERSON UNCLASSIFIED