Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01BEIRUT3057
2001-12-13 14:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

BERRI ON HIZBALLAH, THE REGION AND THE ECONOMY

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER ECON LE IR SY 
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P 131447Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8360
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMCONSUL JEDDAH PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003057 

JEDDAH FOR STEINGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON LE IR SY
SUBJECT: BERRI ON HIZBALLAH, THE REGION AND THE ECONOMY

REF: A. BEIRUT 3002

B. BEIRUT 2965

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM CAROL R. KALIN. REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003057

JEDDAH FOR STEINGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON LE IR SY
SUBJECT: BERRI ON HIZBALLAH, THE REGION AND THE ECONOMY

REF: A. BEIRUT 3002

B. BEIRUT 2965

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM CAROL R. KALIN. REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN DISCUSSING HIZBALLAH'S SIGNIFICANCE WITH
THE AMBASSADOR DECEMBER 7, SPEAKER BERRI SAID THAT AMAL WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL "ACTIONS" PRIOR TO ISRAEL'S 1984
WITHDRAWAL FROM BEIRUT. HE PREDICTED THAT HIZBALLAH WOULD
CONTINUE TO LAUNCH CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS UNTIL A COMPREHENSIVE
PEACE WAS REACHED. BERRI ARGUED THAT ARAFAT WAS TOO WEAK TO
COMBAT TERRORISM, AND WARNED OF CIVIL WAR AMONG THE
PALESTINIANS. ON THE ECONOMY, BERRI CLAIMED THAT HE DID NOT
OPPOSE PRIVATIZATION, BUT WOULD USE HIS ROLE AS SPEAKER TO
INFLUENCE THE PRIORITIZATION OF ECONOMIC REFORM MEASURES.
BERRI THANKED THE AMBASSADOR FOR HIS DECEMBER 3 TOUR OF SOUTH
LEBANON FOCUSED ON DEMINING ISSUES. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) HIZBALLAH'S ROLE: DURING A DECEMBER 7 MEETING WITH
SPEAKER NABIH BERRI, AMBASSADOR, ACCOMPANIED BY LEBANON DESK
OFFICER TIM POUNDS AND POLOFF, SOLICITED BERRI'S VIEW ON
WIDESPREAD SPECULATION THAT HIZBALLAH MAY BE REASSESSING ITS
TACTICS. BERRI SAID THAT THE PATH HIZBALLAH CHOOSES WOULD
DEPEND ON THE COURSE OF U.S.-IRANIAN RELATIONS. RECALLING
HIZBALLAH SYG'S DECEMBER 1 REMARKS THAT SHEBA' FARMS WERE NOT
THE ONLY OCCUPIED LEBANESE TERRITORY (REF A),BERRI PREDICTED
THAT THERE WOULD BE NO END TO CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS UNTIL
THERE WAS A COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT. HE ASSERTED THAT
"THE ISSUE IS WITH THE SYRIANS," AND GIVEN SYRIA'S INFLUENCE
IN LEBANON, THEIR "BROTHERLY RELATIONS" AND THE TWO
COUNTRIES' REJECTION OF SEPARATE PEACE AGREEMENTS, A
CESSATION OF ATTACKS WAS UNLIKELY. BERRI SAID THAT ISRAEL
HAS INFLATED HIZBALLAH'S STANDING BY CREDITING IT WITH ACTS
COMMITTED BY AMAL OR OTHER GROUPS. BERRI VOLUNTEERED THAT
AMAL WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL "ACTIONS" PRIOR TO THE 1984
ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM BEIRUT.


3. (C) BERRI NOTED THAT THE TRADITIONAL RIVALRY BETWEEN
HIZBALLAH AND AMAL HAS STRENGTHENED THE GOL'S ROLE IN THE
SOUTH. FOLLOWING ISRAEL'S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SOUTH, HE
SAID, THE TWO GROUPS AGREED THAT THEY WOULD LEAVE SECURITY
ISSUES TO GOL AUTHORITIES, IN ORDER TO AVOID OPEN CONFLICT

BETWEEN THEM. AS AN EXAMPLE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, HE NOTED
THAT THE ISF HAD BEEN THE ORGANIZATION TO RESPOND TO A RECENT
INCIDENT IN MARJAYOUN IN WHICH A FORMER SLA MEMBER WAS
ATTACKED. HE ALSO CITED THE ISF'S ROLE IN ENSURING SMOOTH
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN SEPTEMBER.


4. (C) REGIONAL VIOLENCE: THE AMBASSADOR UPDATED BERRI ON
SPECIAL ENVOY ZINNI'S WORK IN THE REGION, AND A/S BURNS'
PLANS TO VISIT BEIRUT ON DECEMBER 14. BERRI SAID THAT HE DOES
NOT BELIEVE SHARON WANTS PEACE. THE AMBASSADOR ARGUED THAT
IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT U.S. MOVES ON THE
PEACE PROCESS AND THE DISPATCH OF ZINNI AND BURNS TO THE
REGION, PALESTINIANS HAD LAUNCHED A SERIES OF TERRORIST
ATTACKS. BERRI ACCEPTED THE AMBASSADOR'S POINT, BUT WARNED
THAT ARAFAT WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN FACING A CIVIL WAR OR A WAR
WITH ISRAEL. ARAFAT IS WEAK, HE SAID, AND DOES NOT HAVE THE
ABILITY TO DO MORE. "IF WE END UP WITH HAMAS AND SHARON, IT
WILL BE A DISASTER," HE SAID. THE AMBASSADOR RESPONDED THAT
ARAB LEADERS HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO SUPPORT ARAFAT AND
ENCOURAGE HIS COUNTER-TERRORISM EFFORTS.


5. (C) THE ECONOMY: TURNING TO THE ECONOMY, BERRI CLAIMED
THAT ALTHOUGH HE FAVORS PRIVATIZATION, AS A TACTICAL MOVE, HE
WAS HOLDING UP PRIVATIZATION OF TELECOMMS UNTIL THE
GOVERNMENT MOVED AHEAD ON THE MOST COSTLY SECTORS, SUCH AS
THE ELECTRICAL UTILITY, EDL. HOWEVER, BEFORE PRIVATIZATION
OF EDL BEGAN, BERRI ADDED, THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD FIRST
COLLECT THE THOUSANDS OF UNPAID ELECTRICAL BILLS. THE
GOVERNMENT REALIZED AN ANNUAL INTAKE OF $400 MILLION FROM
TELEPHONE LANDLINES, SO ITS PRIVATIZATION WAS NOT AN URGENT
MATTER, AND BERRI SAID THAT HE HAD ALREADY AGREED TO THE
PRIVATIZATION OF THE CELL-PHONE NETWORK.


6. (C) BERRI V. HARIRI: BERRI SAID THAT HE WOULD WORK WITH
HARIRI ON ECONOMIC ITEMS WHEN IT WAS IN THE INTEREST OF THE
BUDGET, BUT NOT WHEN HARIRI WAS "BEING LAZY." FOR EXAMPLE,
BERRI SAID, HE HAD RAILROADED THE VAT LAW THROUGH PARLIAMENT
AS A PACKAGE, CONTRARY TO HIS USUAL PRACTICE OF VOTING ON
EACH ARTICLE SEPARATELY, BECAUSE HE BELIEVED IT WAS AN
IMPORTANT STEP. HOWEVER, HE WOULD FIGHT HARIRI ON THE
REDUCTION OF THE COUNCIL FOR THE SOUTH'S BUDGET. BERRI SAID
THAT HE HAD ACCEPTED A 25 PERCENT REDUCTION, BUT HARIRI HAD
TRIED TO SLASH THE BUDGET BY 40 PERCENT. BECAUSE PARLIAMENT
DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER TO INCREASE ALLOCATIONS, ONLY TO CUT
THEM, BERRI SAID THAT HE HAD THREATENED TO RETALIATE AGAINST
HARIRI BY CUTTING IN AREAS DEAR TO HARIRI. BERRI SAID THAT
THE FORMER ISRAELI-CONTROLLED AREA NEEDED SIGNIFICANT
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS, INCLUDING THE RECONSTRUCTION OF
10,000 HOMES.


7. (C) DEMINING: THE AMBASSADOR BRIEFED BERRI ON HIS TRIP
THROUGH SOUTH LEBANON DECEMBER 3 FOCUSED ON DEMINING ISSUES
(REF B). SUCH OPERATIONS, HE NOTED, IN ADDITION TO BEING A
HUMANITARIAN IMPERATIVE, WERE CRUCIAL TO THE ECONOMIC
REVITALIZATION OF SOUTHERN LEBANON. BERRI THANKED THE
AMBASSADOR FOR MAKING THE TRIP, SAYING HE HAD FOLLOWED THE
EVENTS CLOSELY.


8. (C) COMMENT: BERRI'S CLAIM TO ALL "ACTIONS" UNTIL 1984,
LIKELY INTENDED AS A THROW-AWAY TO MINIMIZE THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF AMAL'S RIVAL HIZBALLAH ON THE LEBANESE SCENE, IS
STARTLING, AND IT IS UNLIKELY IF ASKED AGAIN THAT HE WOULD
CONFIRM AMAL'S RESPONSIBILITY FOR TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST
U.S. FACILITIES. BERRI'S INFLUENCE HAS ALWAYS DEPENDED ON
HIS ABILITY TO OFFER PATRONAGE TO HIS SUPPORTERS. HIS
ATTEMPTS TO IMPOSE AN ECONOMIC RATIONALE ON BLATANT ATTEMPTS
TO KEEP AS MANY JOBS FOR HIS RETAINERS FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE ARE UNCONVINCING AND THE INSISTENCE ON EDL BILL
COLLECTIONS RUN CONTARY TO HIS OWN POLITICAL INTERESTS, SINCE
MOST OF THE UNCOLLECTED FEES ARE AMONG HIS CONSTITUENTS. HIS
SUPPORT IS CRUCIAL, HOWEVER, TO THE ADOPTION OF LEGISLATION,
AS HE MAINTAINS SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE PARLIAMENTARY
PROCESS. END COMMENT.


BATTLE