Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01ABUJA2878
2001-11-14 14:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

2001 PDP CONVENTION: THE THRILL WAS GONE

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002878 

SIPDIS


AF/W FOR PARKS, EPSTEIN
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI
SUBJECT: 2001 PDP CONVENTION: THE THRILL WAS GONE

REF: A. (A) ABUJA 2832

B. (B) LAGOS 2815


Classified by CDA Timothy Andrews for reasons 1.6X6.


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002878

SIPDIS


AF/W FOR PARKS, EPSTEIN
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI
SUBJECT: 2001 PDP CONVENTION: THE THRILL WAS GONE

REF: A. (A) ABUJA 2832

B. (B) LAGOS 2815


Classified by CDA Timothy Andrews for reasons 1.6X6.



1. (C) Summary: The 2001 Convention of the Peoples'
Democratic Party (PDP) elected an unopposed slate of national
party leaders November 10. Yielding an outwardly harmonious
convention, there was little sign of the wrangling and
division that characterized the preceding four weeks of party
congresses (Ref A). National Chairman Barnabas Gemade and
Party Secretary Okwesilieze Nwodo, succumbing to a
combination of pressure and promised emoluments, stepped down
prior to the Convention. Conflicts in a dozen states at the
ward, local government and state party congresses did not
prevent the National Convention from moving forward.
However, some egos were bruised, and certain questions remain
open. Resolving these problems will be high on the agenda
of Audu Ogbeh, the new Party Chairman, and Prince Vincent Eze
Ogbulafor, National Secretary. Pre-convention internecine
friction had contributed to a rise in the overall political
temperature here. The atmosphere has now cooled somewhat
thanks the orderly convention. Still, Ogbeh, faces a hard
task. Ogbeh must rejuvenate a Party weakened by power plays
and the President,s often heavy-handed. His first steps,
nullification of Party expulsions, may set a positive initial
direction. Background on the PDP's first three years will be
provided Septel. End Summary.


--------------
ATMOSPHERE
--------------



2. (U) The 2001 PDP Convention was a festive occasion,
resembling more a reception for three thousand than a
political convention. Apart from a dour one-sentence
welcoming comment from outgoing National Chairman Barnabas
Gemade, speakers were upbeat and inspirational--the crowd
clearly thrilled to participate in the first PDP National
Convention since November 1999. Obasanjo and Speaker Ghali
Na'abba both appealed for Party unity, looked forward to
another successful 18 months of PDP leadership, and predicted
strong gains for the Party at all levels of government during
the 2003 election cycle. Outside the venue, the throng of
thousands of Nigerians clamoring around the chain-link fence

was striking. They seemed to want at least to be physically
near the often remote elites who are responsible for leading
Nigeria, and who have disappointed them so often in the past.
On more than one occasion, police were seen beating young
men trying to sneak into the venue or who were accused of
being on eof the ubiquitous pickpockets trying to steal from
the more affluent participants as they entered the
conventions jam packed main gate. Meanwhile, away from the
actual convention site, functionaries from the state and
local levels crowded ministers' residences and the liaison
offices of many states added to the celebrant atmosphere,
many of the functionaries spent a lot of time consuming vast
quantities of food and drink and leaving wrecked automobiles
scattered about the city.


--------------
Changing Partners
--------------



3. (C) Observers within and outside the Party were perplexed
by Gemade and Nwodo's stubborn bid to retain their positions
in the face of Presidential opposition. (Gemade was
installed during the 1999 Party Convention in Jos only at the
President,s behest, and due to the deep pockets of his
political backers in the Party.) PDP contacts told us that
both Gemade and Nwodo were promised ministerial positions to
end their reelection bids. That they held on until nearly
the eleventh hour caused many to suspect that their bid to
remain was a desperate gambit to compel the President to
"sweeten" their severance packages. Party insiders told us
that support for Gemade primarily came from PDP state
governors who, either due to non-performance or conflicts
with local power brokers, were unlikely to regain the party
nomination. Senator Aniete Okon told Poloff, "Those guys
know that with Gemade, they can buy the nomination; with
Ogbeh, they can't."



4. (SBU) While it is typical for politicians here to engage
in brinkmanship before resolving a conflict, both the
President and Party officials considered Gemade's
rebelliousness to have been out-of-bounds, even by Nigerian
standards. Given other current events -- the violence in
Benue state, and the dispute over electoral reform -- the PDP
leadership squabble was untimely, increasing political
tension at a moment when it was already high. In an attempt
to save his position, Gemade called an October 30 meeting of
the PDP National Executive Council and declared that the
Convention and Party congresses were suspended, and that
Minister of Works and Housing Anenih was expelled (Comment:
This was ironic. It was Anenih, by doling out cash during the
1999 convention, who did the leg work that got Gemade his
job. End comment.)



5. (C/NF) The following day, President Obasanjo called a
meeting of the Party Caucus--PDP governors, National Assembly
leaders, Party elders and key officials from the Executive.
Neither Gemade nor Nwodo were present. The October 31
session undid Gemade,s handiwork by moving to lift the court
injunction against Party congresses, reinstate Anenih, and
deciding to go ahead with the Party Convention as scheduled.
Gemade feebly contested the authority of the Caucus to make
those decisions, but the battle was over. President Obasanjo
charged Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu, a Middle Belt
politician from Plateau state to "settle" Gemade, so that the
convention would run smoothly. Mantu told the Charge that he
had reiterated to Gemade the President's offer of a cabinet
position in exchange for the PDP leadership, but added that
he would wait until after the Convention to strongly advise
Gemade not to accept. Gemade, Mantu noted, had proven
untrustworth and would not be tolerated as a colleague in the
cabinet.


--------------
A NEW HAND AT THE WHEEL
--------------



6. (C) Retired from active political life since being
Communications Minister under Shagari, New PDP chair Audu
Ogbeh is respected, unlike his more slippery predecessor.
During separate conversations with the Ambassador and the DCM
prior to his gaining the chairmanship, Ogbeh spoke frankly
about Nigeria,s political and economic health. He
castigated Nigerian elites for being self-serving and for
abandoning their mostly rural fellow citizens to poverty and
malaise. He placed primary responsibility for the parlous
economy on the elites -- both military and civilian -- who
have ruled the country over the past 30 years, and drew an
unequivocal connection between widespread poverty and the
ethnic and religious strife that has become far too common
during the Fourth Republic.



7. (C) If he lives up to his reputation, Ogbeh will be much
better for the party than Gemade. There are signs he already
is. His first step as Party Chairman was to nullify all
previous expulsions from the Party in an attempt to instill
unity in the PDP as it gears up for elections. Ogbeh will be
a key player in resolving intra-party disputes between PDP
office holders in different branches of government and
between rival state Party factions. To do so effectively, he
must not adopt Gemade's role as the President's spokesperson
to the Party. Yet, it is unclear how Obasanjo, who is
accustomed to having orders followed, will respond if Ogbeh
begins to act independently. However, that Obasanjo wanted
Ogbeh indicates recognition of the drawbacks of Gemade and
those like him. Ogbeh (like Gemade from Benue State) is
affable, low-key and appears capable of building consensus
and brokering compromises among competing interests.


--------------
CONVENTION DAY: A FEW DISCORDANT NOTES
--------------



8. (U) Among Ogbeh's first challenges will be resolving
disputes in the twelve states that failed to complete
elections of state PDP executive committees because of
irregularities at the ward, local government or state Party
level(s). Some state Governors nullified outright the
results of ward congresses, like Plateau Governor Dariye and
Abia Governor Orji Kalu (Ref. B). Others obeyed the
Gemade-orchestrated court order barring local government
congresses, and therefore were unable to conclude their
state-level congress and elect delegates for the Convention.
This unresolved factionalism produced the only bit of discord
during a National Convention otherwise characterized by an
almost festive parade of dignitaries pressing the flesh.



9. (U) At the Anambra State bleacher section, all seats were
occupied by supporters of Chief Emeka Offor, the former
patron but current adversary of Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju.
Since Anambra did not complete the selection of delegates,
Offor's supporters--including Anambra's entire National
Assembly delegation-- refused to permit Mbadinuju or his
delegation to sit. A standoff (or more accuratly , a sit
still, ensued.) Both groups tried to out-chant the other.
Offor's contingent was larger and louder, although he was
installed in a seat by Mobile Police, Mbadinuju eventually
abandoned his State's delegation, chased away by cries, in
Igbo, of "Thief!" Other states facing bitter conflicts
between incumbent governors and other party figures include
Plateau, Cross River, and Abia. Several sources stated that
President Obasanjo wants all South-South governors replaced,
regardless of their party affiliation, because of their
insistence on being paid the full constitutional derivation
of 13 percent.



10. (C) Comment: The Convention was an anticlimax to
several weeks of intramural tug of war in the party. While
the PDP is far from fixed, at least it is still running.
President Obasanjo accomplished his mission ) an uneventful
convention, and the selection of Chairman and national
executive slate he wanted. The convention, although orderly,
was neither very transparent nor democratic. Selection of
party leaders was orchestrated from afar and not determined
by an open process. This tack kept the convention from
denigrating into an unruly affair, and as such, it,s
probably a net positive. However, underlying problems and
concerns about how the party is run and the relationship of
the party leadership to the presidential remain. It is now
up to the President and new party hierarchy to continue to
mend today's wounds and, perhaps, shift the party to a more
transparent and democratic tomorrow. Septel offers an
overview of the evolution of the PDP over the past three
years that places current events in context.
Andrews