AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - NEXT STEPS

S E C R E T ABU DHABI 006422 STATE FOR NEA/ARP AND SA/PAB E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/11 TAGS: PREL PTER AF PK TC SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - NEXT STEPS REF: STATE 192153 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY DCM GORDON R. OLSON, FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶2. (S) POLOFF REVIEWED REFTEL POINTS ON THE FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN WITH MUHAMMAD ABDUL RAHIM ABDUL JALIL, MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS ON NOVEMBER 7. SHE HANDED OVER A COPY OF THE PRESIDENT'S SPEECH TO THE WARSAW CONFERENCE ON COMBATING TERRORISM. ABDUL JALIL SAID HE HAD HEARD EXCERPTS OF THE SPEECH ON AL-JAZEERA AND NOTED THAT THE PRESIDENT HAD DELIVERED A FORCEFUL AND WELCOME MESSAGE. ABDUL JALIL CONDEMNED THE 9/11 ATTACKS AND REITERATED THE UAE'S STRONG COMMITMENT TO THE ANTI-TERROR COALITION. RECALLING THAT THE UAE HAD ITSELF BEEN A TARGET OF TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE 1970'S AND 1980'S (THE FOREIGN MINISTER WAS ASSASSINATED AND SEVERAL UAE DIPLOMATS ABROAD WERE TARGETED BY ABU NIDAL),ABDUL JALIL DECLARED THAT WE NEEDED TO STAND TOGETHER AGAINST THIS NEW THREAT. UBL DID NOT SPEAK FOR THE MUSLIM PEOPLE, HE STATED, MOST OF WHOM JUST WANT TO LIVE IN PEACE. ¶3. (C) NOTING USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE, POLOFF LAUDED THE UAE'S OWN SUBSTANTIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM. SHE SAID THE U.S. ANTICIPATED THAT A HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE DONORS CONFERENCE WOULD BE HELD AND ENCOURAGED UAE PARTICIPATION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UAE HAS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TEAMS ON THE GROUND IN AFGHANISTAN -- WORKING THROUGH THE UAE RED CRESCENT SOCIETY -- THE DONORS' CONFERENCE WOULD PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE EMIRATIS TO SHARE THEIR KNOWLEDGE AND COMBINE THEIR EFFORTS WITH OTHERS IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. ABDUL JALIL AGREED THAT THE UAE NEEDED TO BE PART OF ANY DONORS CONFERENCE AND EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND IN AFGHANISTAN, PARTICULARLY IN ADVANCE OF THE HARSH WINTER. ¶4. (C) TURNING TO AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE, POLOFF NOTED THE DIFFICULTY OF FORGING A COALITION AMONG AFGHANISTAN'S DIVERSE ETHNIC GROUPS. NEVERTHELESS, WE BELIEVED THAT A BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO BE ESTABLISHED AND THAT, AT ALL COSTS, WE SHOULD AVOID THE CREATION OF A POWER VACUUM. TO THIS END, WE FULLY ENDORSED THE EFFORTS OF UN SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE BRAHIMI. ABDUL JALIL, WHO SERVED UNTIL AUGUST AS THE UAE'S DCM IN TEHRAN, WONDERED ABOUT IRANIAN DESIGNS AND HOPED THAT THE SIX PLUS TWO MEETING IN NEW YORK WOULD BEAR FRUIT. THE PASHTUNS -- WHO HE ESTIMATED COMPRISE 51% OF THE AFGHAN POPULATION -- WILL NEED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT, ABDUL JALIL SURMISED. ¶5. (U) PESHAWAR MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. WAHBA