C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 005396

STATE FOR NEA/ARP
PARIS FOR O'FRIEL
LONDON FOR SUTPHIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV MEPP YM
SUBJECT: SALEH'S RHETORIC OVER THE TOP, BUT POLICY UNCHANGED

REF: STATE 220986

(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR BARBARA K. BODINE, REASON 1.5
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER BA
JAMMAL NOVEMBER 20, THE AMBASSADOR CONVEYED U.S. CONCERNS
THAT PRESIDENT SALEH'S RECENT PUBLIC STATEMENTS WERE
EXACERBATING AN ALREADY DIFFICULT SITUATION. AT SUCH A TENSE
TIME, THE ROYG SHOULD BE PUBLICLY URGING BOTH SIDES TO RETURN
TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, NOT FANNING THE FLAMES OF PAN-ARAB
ANGER. THE PRESIDENT'S EXCESSIVE COMMENTS WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN THE POSITION OF REJECTIONISTS ON BOTH SIDES. BA
JAMMAL EXPLAINED THAT SALEH'S RHETORICAL EXTRAVAGANCE WAS
NECESSARY TO SATISFY PRO-PALESTINIAN YEMENI PUBLIC OPINION
AND FILL A VACUUM THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE FILLED BY THE
OPPOSITION. HE STRESSED THAT THE ROYG'S SUPPORTIVE POLICY
FOR THE MEPP HAD NOT AND WOULD NOT CHANGE. AMBASSADOR
CONTINUED THAT THE GAP BETWEEN YEMENI POLICY AND PRESIDENTIAL
RHETORIC WAS GROWING TOO WIDE TO BE SUSTAINABLE AS SIMPLY FOR
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION. IT WAS NOT IN THE REGION'S, THE
PALESTINIANS' OR YEMEN'S BEST INTEREST THAT THIS CONTINUE.
END SUMMARY.

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U.S. RESERVATIONS ON RECENT RHETORIC
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2. (C) DURING HER NOVEMBER 20 MEETING WITH DEPUTY PRIME
MINISTER/FOREIGN MINISTER ABDUL QADIR BA JAMMAL (OTHER TOPICS
SEPTEL), AMBASSADOR, PER REFTEL, RAISED GROWING U.S. CONCERNS
OVER THE INCREASINGLY SHARP TONE OF PRESIDENT SALEH'S PUBLIC
STATEMENTS ON REGIONAL ISSUES IN GENERAL AND THE MIDDLE EAST
PEACE PROCESS IN PARTICULAR. THE PRESIDENT'S RECENT COMMENTS
ABOUT THE NECESSITY OF JIHAD, HIS ASSERTION THAT ARMED
RESISTANCE WAS THE ONLY VIABLE PALESTINIAN OPTION AND HIS
PUBLIC EXPRESSION OF REGRET -- REPEATED ON AT LEAST TWO
OCCASIONS -- THAT YEMEN DID NOT BORDER ISRAEL AND THEREFORE
COULD NOT PROVIDE ARMS FOR THE INTIFADA, WERE
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE TO INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO STOP THE
VIOLENCE IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. THEY ALSO APPEARED TO
CONTRADICT OFFICIAL ROYG POLICY OF SUPPORT FOR THE MEPP.

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BA JAMMAL: IT'S RHETORIC, NOT SUBSTANCE
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3. (C) BA JAMMAL DOWNPLAYED THE SERIOUSNESS OF SALEH'S
REMARKS, ESPECIALLY THOSE EXPRESSING REGRET AT YEMEN'S NOT
BEING A BORDERLINE STATE, ADDING THAT HE HAD QUICKLY
CLARIFIED THE LATTER IN SUBSEQUENT PRESS INTERVIEWS, DENYING
THAT YEMEN WAS CALLING FOR WAR AND RESTATING THAT THE
PEACEFUL RECOGNITION OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS REMAINED A
FUNDAMENTAL PRECEPT OF YEMENI FOREIGN POLICY. HE EXPLAINED
THE PRESIDENT'S RHETORICAL EXTRAVAGANCE AS AN UNAVOIDABLE
POLITICAL REALITY: AS AN ARAB LEADER, SALEH IS OBLIGED TO
ENTHUSIASTICALLY EMBRACE PAN-ARAB SOLIDARITY DURING PERIODS
OF PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFRONTATION. ALSO, THE YEMENI
PUBLIC IS OUTRAGED OVER WHAT THEY PERCEIVE AS ISRAEL'S USE OF
EXCESSIVE FORCE AGAINST PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS; TO APPEAR SOFT
ON ISRAEL WOULD OPEN THE GOVERNMENT TO ATTACKS FROM THE
DOMESTIC OPPOSITION.

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THE AMBASSADOR: RHETORIC MATTERS
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4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR CHARACTERIZED SALEH'S RECENT PUBLIC
STATEMENTS AS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE AND INTOLERANT THAN THEY
HAD EVER BEEN AND WELL BEYOND THOSE EMANATING FROM MOST OTHER
ARAB CAPITALS. IN FACT, BA JAMMAL HAD HIMSELF EARLIER
DISPARAGED IRAQ'S CALLING FOR A JIHAD AND A WAR OF AGGRESSION
AGAINST ISRAEL. REGRETTABLY, PRESIDENT SALEH'S PUBLIC
STATEMENTS WERE PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO BAGHDAD'S. THIS HAD BEEN
NOTICED IN WASHINGTON, WHERE EVENYEMEN'S FRIENDS WERE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY WORRIE ABOUT THE EXTREME NATURE OF
SOME OF SALEH'S COMENTS. SUCH STRIDENT RHETORIC ONLY SERVED
TO ENCURAGE VIOLENT REJECTIONISTS ON THE PALESTINIAN SID
AND CONFIRM HARD-LINE ISRAELI CLAIMS THAT ALL AABS WANT WAR
WITH ISRAEL. GIVEN THE VOLATILITY O THE CURRENT SITUATION,
OFFICIAL ROYG STATEMENTSSHOULD BE URGING BOTH SIDES TO
RETURN TO PEACEFU NEGOTIATION, NOT EXHORTING MUSLIMS TO
JIHAD OR ALESTINIANS TO VIOLENT RESISTANCE.

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ROYG POLICY UNCHANGED: SUPPORT FOR THE MEPP
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5. (C) BA JAMMAL DEMURRED, CLAIMING THAT OTHER ARAB EADERS
HAD ISSUED SIMILARLY STRONG PUBLIC STATEMNTS. SALEH
SHOULDN'T BE SINGLED OUT. POINTING OT THAT HE HAD
SUCCESSFULLY PREVENTED ANTI-MEPP LNGUAGE FROM BEING INCLUDED
IN THE OIC SUMMIT'S FNAL COMMUNIQUE, BA JAMMAL INSISTED THAT
THE ROYGS SUPPORTIVE POLICY FOR THE PEACE PROCESS HAD NOT
AND WOULD NOT CHANGE. PEACEFUL NEGOTIATION WAS TH ONLY WAY
TO ACHIEVE A JUST, LASTING PEACE BETWEN ISRAEL AND THE
PALESTINIANS. AT THE SAME TIME THE U.S. MUST UNDERSTAND
THAT THE YEMENI LEADERHIP IS UNDER TREMENDOUS PUBLIC OPINION
PRESSURE;THE YEMENI STREET HAS TO BE APPEASED. SALEH'S
REENT RHETORIC REFLECTS A "COMPETITION" BETWEEN THE ROYG AND
THE DOMESTIC OPPOSITION FOR THE PUBLIC'S FAVOR, NOT A POLICY
SHIFT.


6. (C) THE AMBASSADOR WARNED BA JAMMAL THAT A CONTINUATION
OF SALEH'S RHETORIC RISKED BEING INTERPRETED IN WASHINGTON AS
AN INDICATION THAT ROYG POLICY HAS CHANGED OR IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CHANGING. BA JAMMAL TOOK THE POINT, BUT
DISTINGUISHED BETWEEN ROYG STRATEGY (OVERALL SUPPORT FOR THE
MEPP AND PEACEFUL NEGOTIATION) AND TACTICS (BUYING TIME BY
APPEASING PUBLIC ANGER). THE AMBASSADOR CONCLUDED BY
SUGGESTING THAT IT WOULD BE IN EVERYONE'S INTEREST IF THE
ROYG BEGAN TO FOCUS ON STRATEGY RATHER THAN TACTICS.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) SALEH'S DESIRE TO BURNISH HIS PAN-ARAB CREDENTIALS
AND AVOID OPENING HIMSELF TO ATTACKS FROM THE OPPOSITION IS
PREDICTABLE, IF LAMENTATBLE. OPPOSITION (AND ESPECIALLY
ISLAAH) CRITICISM OF THE ROYG'S DECISION EARLIER THIS YEAR TO
REVISE ITS TRAVEL POLICY TO ALLOW YEMENI-ORIGIN ISRAELIS TO
RETURN HOME ON LAISSEZ-PASSER WAS PARTICULARLY NASTY. AS A
RESULT, THE NEW POLICY HAD TO BE SUSPENDED. SALEH MUST ALSO
CAREFULLY MANAGE THE PUBLIC OPINION ASPECTS OF THE U.S.
INVESTIGATIVE PRESENCE IN YEMEN FOLLOWING THE OCTOBER 12
TERRORIST ATTACK AGAINST THE USS COLE IN ADEN HARBOR. TAKING
HARD-LINE STANCES ON REGIONAL ISSUES GIVES SALEH THE
POLITICAL COVER HE NEEDS FOR THE CLOSE AND ONGOING
YEMENI-U.S. JOINT INVESTIGATION. THAT SAID, HIS RECENT
PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON IRAQ AND THE MEPP ARE WELL BEYOND THE
PALE EVEN IF THEY REFLECT SALEH'S MERCURIAL AND COMBATIVE
NATURE RATHER THAN A SHIFT IN ROYG POLICY. AMBASSADOR HAS
REQUESTED AN APPOINTMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT TO DISCUSS U.S.
CONCERNS.


BODINE