A VISIT TO MR. MUGABE'S PLANET: THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 007273 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND AFR/SA C. PALMA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2010 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI UK SUBJECT: A VISIT TO MR. MUGABE'S PLANET: THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 07273 01 OF 04 281607Z PRESIDENT'S END OF YEAR SPEECH CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) IN HIS HOUR-LONG END OF YEAR MESSAGE DECEMBER 27, PRESIDENT MUGABE GAVE HIS VERSION OF EVENTS IN THE YEAR 2000. HE ATTRIBUTED THE COUNTRY'S DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PATCH TO FALLING COMMODITY AND RISING INPUT PRICES AS WELL AS RESERVE BANK MONETARY POLICY. HE REHEARSED THE REASONS FOR THE FAST-TRACK LAND REFORM PROGRAM AND BLAMED THE GREED OF THE "ANGLO-SAXON" COMMERCIAL FARMERS FOR HAMPERING PROGRESS. HE CONDEMNED THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE FOR ATTEMPTING TO COME TO POWER THROUGH VIOLENT MEANS AND PURSUING A SEDITIOUS POLITICAL AGENDA. HE SAID THE YEAR HAD BEEN A DIFFICULT ONE AND THANKED PEOPLE FOR THEIR FORBEARANCE WITH THE SHORTAGES OF FUEL. THE SPEECH, RIDDLED WITH FACTUAL INACCURACIES, LOGICAL INCONSISTENCIES AND NOT-SO-VEILED THREATS, SUCCEEDED IN EMBARRASSING ALL BUT THE MOST ARDENT ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS PRESENT. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE DELIVERED HIS END-OF-YEAR MESSAGE TO AN ESTIMATED 500 GUESTS AT A STATE HOUSE RECEPTION DECEMBER 27. THE PRESIDENT, WHO SPOKE FOR AN HOUR, OFTEN DEPARTED FROM HIS PREPARED TEXT. THE SPEECH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 07273 01 OF 04 281607Z WAS AN EMBARRASSMENT; IT WAS BREATHTAKING IN ITS INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY, LOGICAL INCONSISTENCY AND NOT- SO-VEILED THREATS. AUDIENCE REACTION WAS MUTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OCCASIONAL "HEAR, HEAR," SHOUTED BY SOME OF THE MORE ZEALOUS OF THE PARTY FAITHFUL. MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE NKOSANA MOYO CONFIDED TO THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER HERE THAT HE FELT "SHATTERED" FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S SPEECH. ¶3. (SBU) MUGABE LED OFF BY MAKING A POINT OF GREETING THOSE IN ATTENDANCE FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND THE PARASTATALS. HE SEEMED TO BE ALIGNING GOVERNMENT WITH THESE TWO GROUPS AND MADE MENTION OF THE FACT THAT THEY HAD STOOD TOGETHER IN SOLIDARITY TO COMBAT THE FORCES FROM OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY. HE THEN CALLED THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" NEWSPAPER THE "DAILY LIARS," AND SAID THAT THEY AND THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) DID NOT KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A BANQUET AND A RECEPTION. (COMMENT: THIS WAS A JAB AT THE MDC FOR BOYCOTTING THE EVENT. THE "DAILY NEWS" REPORTED ON THE DECEMBER 27 THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY SAID IT COULD NOT ATTEND SUCH A LAVISH EVENT WITH THE SUFFERING GOING ON OVER THIS LAST YEAR. END COMMENT). -------------- THE ECONOMY IS NOT OUR FAULT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) THE PRESIDENT ADMITTED THAT IT HAD BEEN A DIFFICULT YEAR FOR EVERYONE. HE SAID THE MAIN CAUSE WAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 07273 01 OF 04 281607Z THE DOWNWARD PRICE OF ZIMBABWE'S MINERALS, ESPECIALLY GOLD, WHICH HE LABELED (INCORRECTLY) AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF ZIMBABWE'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOLLOWED BY TOBACCO. THIS SET THE TREND FOR GREAT HARDSHIPS. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE STATED, "THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THE GOVERNMENT IS BLAMED FOR FOLLOWING THE WRONG POLICIES. ECONOMICS IS NOT A SCIENCE OF CERTAINTY. IT IS A SCIENCE OF ASSUMPTIONS. PRICES INCREASE BECAUSE OF DEMAND OR OTHER FORCES. IN THE CASE OF ZIMBABWE, THEY INCREASE BECAUSE OF 'COST-PUSH INFLATION.'" (COMMENT: SOUTH AFRICA, THE SOURCE FOR 60 PERCENT OF IMPORTS, HAD AN INFLATION RATE OF UNDER FIVE PERCENT THIS YEAR. END COMMENT). HE CONTINUED, "WE GET MATERIALS FROM ABROAD AND WE HAVE TO PAY THE SUPPLIERS' PRICES. WE HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THESE PRICES