SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007271 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PRETORIA FOR RHELM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10 TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001 LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D). REFS: A. HARARE 6190, B. HARARE 6662 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: THE LATEST MAIZE SEED SALES DATA INDICATE THAT NATIONAL MAIZE PLANTING IS DOWN 25 PERCENT FROM NORMAL LEVELS. THE ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZPGA),REPRESENTING LARGE SCALE COMMERCIAL MAIZE PRODUCERS, PUBLISHED A STATEMENT ON DECEMBER 20 APPEALING FOR ITS MEMBERS TO PLANT MORE MAIZE BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH. SMALL-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS AND COMMUNAL FARMERS MAY PLANT MORE MAIZE BEFORE THE END OF DECEMBER, BUT THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY AFFORDING THE INPUTS NEEDED BECAUSE OF THE SHARP RISE IN THE PRICES OF SEED, FERTILIZER, OTHER CHEMICALS, AND DIESEL, COMBINED WITH THE FAILURE OF THE PARASTATAL GRAIN MARKETING BOARD (GMB) TO PAY THESE FARMERS FOR THE 2000 HARVEST. FORECASTS FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z PRINCIPAL MAIZE GROWING REGIONS IN ZIMBABWE MAY HELP TO OFFSET THE PLANTING SHORTFALL BY INCREASING YIELDS. THE GMB CLAIMS TO HAVE 600,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE IN ITS STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE, WHICH, IF ACCURATE, SHOULD COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALL OF MAIZE IN THE 2001 HARVEST. ZIMBABWE ALSO FACES A LARGER THAN NORMAL SHORTFALL IN WHEAT, NECESSITATING INCREASED WHEAT IMPORTS AT A TIME WHEN THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) HAS NO FOREIGN CURRENCY TO PURCHASE SUCH IMPORTS. THE REAL CRUNCH IN THE MAIZE SUPPLY MAY COME IN THE 2001/02 SEASON. PLANTING OF MAIZE FOR SEED IS ONLY 38 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR'S TOTAL. IF THE GOZ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON ITS "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, REPLACING THE 2673 COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION WITH THOUSANDS OF ILL-EQUIPPED SMALL-SCALE FARMERS, ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY IS LIKELY TO SUFFER. END SUMMARY. -------------- -- THE ZPGA MAKES A PLEA TO FARMERS TO PLANT MAIZE -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) ON DECEMBER 20 THE CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZGPA),ANDREW MEIKLE, RELEASED A STATEMENT TO THE PRESS URGING LARGE SCALE MAIZE GROWERS TO MAXIMIZE THE HECTARAGE PLANTED WITH MAIZE BEFORE THE SEASON ENDS ON DECEMBER 31. THE CHAIRMAN STATED THAT HE WAS TAKING THE ACTION FOR TWO REASONS: FIRST, BECAUSE THE CURRENT CROP WILL NOT MEET ZIMBABWE'S MAIZE NEEDS AND WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER PRICE FOR MAIZE, AND SECOND, TO COUNTER A ZIMBABWE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 07271 01 OF 03 281349Z BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC) TELEVISION STORY THAT STATED THAT COMMERCIAL FARMERS WERE SWITCHING FROM MAIZE TO OTHER CROPS AS A PLOT (NOT STATED, BUT IMPLIED, TO CAUSE A SHORTFALL IN THE NEXT MAIZE HARVEST THAT WOULD BE BLAMED ON THE GOZ'S LAND REFORM PROGRAM.) THE CHAIRMAN WENT ON TO STATE THAT THE LARGE SCALE COMMERCIAL MAIZE PRODUCER HAS ALWAYS FELT A MORAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR FOOD SECURITY IN ZIMBABWE, AND THE REAL REASONS THAT MAIZE HECTARAGE WAS DOWN ON COMMERCIAL FARMS WAS DUE TO THE ON-GOING LAND INVASIONS AND WORK STOPPAGES, THE LACK OF PROFITABILITY OF MAIZE AS A CROP, AND THE INABILITY OF MANY COMMERCIAL GROWERS TO OBTAIN FINANCING FROM BANKS DUE TO THE GOZ "FAST-TRACK" LAND REFORM PROGRAM AND COMPULSORY ACQUISITION. -------------- -------------- STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE SHOULD COVER MAIZE SHORTFALL -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) ECONOFF SPOKE WITH VARIOUS PLAYERS IN THE MAIZE INDUSTRY IN ZIMBABWE TO GET BACKGROUND ON THE MAIZE SUPPLY AND HARVEST PREDICTIONS FOR ZIMBABWE. THESE INCLUDED VANESSA MCKAY, PRINCIPAL ADMINISTRATOR OF THE ZIMBABWE GRAIN PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION (ZGPA),RICHARD AMYOT, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF COMMODITIES FOR THE COMMERCIAL CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO7277 PAGE 01 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z ACTION AID-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 ACE-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- B06BFA 281351Z /38 R 281349Z DEC 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7902 INFO NSC WASHDC USDOC WASHDC DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC USDA FAS WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 007271 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PRETORIA FOR RHELM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10 TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001 LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE FARMERS UNION (CFU),IAN GOGGIN OF THE ZIMBABWE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXCHANGE (ZIMACE),AND ELLIOT VHURUMUKU, COUNTRY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ZIMBABWE FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK. EFFORTS TO SPEAK WITH OFFICIALS AT THE PARASTATAL GRAIN MARKETING BOARD (GMB) AND THE MINISTRY OF LANDS, AGRICULTURE AND RURAL RESETTLEMENT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL. ALL CONTACTS AGREED THAT IF THE GMB REPORT OF 600,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE IN THE STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE IS ACCURATE, ZIMBABWE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT MAIZE RESERVES TO GET IT THROUGH TO THE APRIL HARVEST. ZIMBABWE CONSUMES ABOUT 1,800,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE PER YEAR, AND THIS YEAR'S MAIZE CROP ESTIMATE BASED ON SEED SALES IS FOR 1,200,000 METRIC TONS, LEAVING THE GMB STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE TO COVER THE SHORTFALL. -------------- THE REAL CRUNCH MAY COME IN 2002 -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z ¶4. (SBU) ALL THE CONTACTS AGREED THAT THE REAL SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, AND CONSEQUENT THREAT TO ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY, WILL OCCUR DURING THE 2001/2002 SEASON IF THINGS STAY THE SAME IN ZIMBABWE. THIS IS FOR VARIOUS REASONS. IF THE GOZ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON THE COMPULSORY ACQUISITION OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT ARE LARGE-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS, THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COUNTRY'S MAIZE PRODUCTION WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE. IN THE JUST-ENDED HARVEST SEASON, LARGE-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCERS PRODUCED 850,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE ON JUST 162,000 HECTARES, WHILE THE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS PRODUCED 1,100,000 METRIC TONS, BUT ON 1,100,000 HECTARES. EVEN IF THE GOZ INSTRUCTED ALL RESETTLED PEOPLE TO GROW MAIZE AND PROVIDED THEM WITH NEEDED CROP INPUTS, A VIRTUAL IMPOSSIBILITY GIVEN THE GOZ'S BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS AND PAST TRACK RECORD, IT IS EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL THAT THESE NEWLY RESETTLED FARMERS WOULD BE ABLE TO REPLACE THE MAIZE PRODUCTION LOST FROM THE LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL PRODUCERS. ¶5. (U) ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE RISING COST OF INPUTS NEEDED FOR MAIZE PRODUCTION. IN PARTICULAR, FERTILIZER AND DIESEL FUEL COSTS HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY THIS YEAR, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE SINCE BOTH PRODUCTS ARE IMPORTED. THE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO GET THE MONEY TO PLANT FOR THIS MAIZE SEASON, AND THE SITUATION WILL LIKELY BE WORSE NEXT YEAR. THE GOZ HAS SET A PRELIMINARY MARKET PRICE OF 5,500 ZIMBABWE DOLLARS FOR A METRIC TON OF MAIZE, WHILE THE ZPGA ESTIMATES THAT IT CURRENTLY COSTS ITS MEMBERS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 07271 02 OF 03 281350Z 7,000 ZIMBABWE DOLLARS TO PRODUCE A METRIC TON. WHILE SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS' COSTS ARE LOWER THAN THAT OF LARGE-SCALE PRODUCERS; THEIR FINANCIAL VIABILITY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT CURRENT GOZ DETERMINED MAIZE PRICES. ¶6. (U) LASTLY, SEED MAIZE PLANTINGS ARE REPORTED BY THE ZPGA TO BE ONLY 38 PERCENT OF THE HECTARAGE PLANTED LAST YEAR. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO BOTH THE FARM INVASIONS, BECAUSE SEED MAIZE CROPS ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO CROSS-FERTILIZATION WITH REGULAR MAIZE PLANTED BY FARM OCCUPIERS, AS WELL AS THE CURRENTLY POOR FINANCIAL VIABILITY IN ZIMBABWE OF MAIZE AS A CROP. BECAUSE THIS SEED MAIZE HAS BEEN SPECIALLY ADAPTED TO THE GROWING CONDITIONS IN ZIMBABWE, IT CANNOT BE IMPORTED FROM MANY PLACES OTHER THAN SOUTH AFRICA AND MALAWI, COUNTRIES TO WHICH ZIMBABWE HISTORICALLY HAS EXPORTED SEED MAIZE. ¶7. (C) ALL OF THESE FACTORS LEAD THE EXPERTS TO CONCLUDE THAT IF THE GOZ CONTINUES FULL-STEAM AHEAD WITH THE "FAST-TRACK" COMPULSORY ACQUISITION OF LARGE-SCALE MAIZE PRODUCING COMMERCIAL FARMS; AND RESETTLES THESE FARMS WITHOUT PROVIDING FOR NEEDED CROP INPUTS, NOT TO MENTION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7693 PAGE 01 HARARE 07271 03 OF 03 281350Z ACTION AID-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 ACE-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- B06C09 281351Z /38 R 281349Z DEC 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7903 INFO NSC WASHDC USDOC WASHDC DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC USDA FAS WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 007271 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GSMITH USDOC FOR 4510/EHENDERSON TREASURY FOR OASIA/EBARBER, BHOFFMAN LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PRETORIA FOR RHELM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 07271 03 OF 03 281350Z PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL 12/28/10 TAGS: EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: SIZEABLE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PRODUCTION IN 2001 LOOMS AS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR ZIMBABWE THE MINIMAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED FOR SUCCESSFUL FARMING, THERE WILL BE A DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF THE 2001/2002 MAIZE HARVEST. PAST GOZ EFFORTS AT PROVIDING SUPPORT TO RESETTLED FARMERS INDICATE THAT ANY ASSISTANCE PROVIDED WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS REALITY IS COMPOUNDED BY THE SEVERE BUDGET CONSTRAINTS CURRENTLY FACED BY THE GOZ. ZIMBABWE WILL THUS BE FACING A POTENTIALLY MAJOR REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF ITS 2001/2002 MAIZE CROP AT THE SAME TIME THAT ITS STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE WILL HAVE BEEN DEPLETED AND THE GOZ WILL LACK HARD CURRENCY TO PURCHASE MAIZE ON THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET. THESE FACTORS ALL COMBINE TO RAISE THE CONCERN OF THE EXPERTS THAT WHILE ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IS SATISFACTORY RIGHT NOW, A YEAR FROM NOW THE COUNTRY COULD BE FACING A SITUATION OF FOOD INSECURITY. OUR SOURCES ALL CLAIM THAT IF THE PREDICTED RAINFALL FOR ZIMBABWE THIS SEASON DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, OR THE COUNTRY DOES NOT RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL DURING THE 2001/2002 SEASON, FOOD SECURITY COULD BECOME A SERIOUS CRISIS SITUATION OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTIONS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 07271 03 OF 03 281350Z ¶8. COMMENT: (C) THE ZPGA CHAIRMAN CLEARLY FELT THAT HE HAD TO ISSUE THE STATEMENT ENCOURAGING COMMERCIAL FARMERS TO PLANT MAIZE TO COUNTER THE GOZ'S NOT SO SUBTLE PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN ALLEGING THAT COMMERCIAL FARMERS (AND WHITE ZIMBABWEANS IN GENERAL) ARE SABOTAGING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AND THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE: TO DISCREDIT THE "FAST-TRACK" LAND PROGRAM; TO UNDERMINE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND ZANU-PF; OR MOST RIDICULOUSLY, IN ORDER TO STARVE BLACK ZIMBABWEANS. THE GOZ KNOWS THAT ITS "FAST TRACK" LAND PROGRAM, IF CARRIED OUT TO ITS LOGICAL CONCLUSION, IS GOING TO LEAD TO A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AT THE VERY LEAST LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT AS IT IS WONT, WILL NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FAILURE OF ITS POLICY, BUT RATHER WILL SEEK A CONVENIENT SCAPEGOAT. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >