ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY CRANKS UP INTIMIDATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 007164 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR A/AID RMCCALL, AA/AFR VDERRYCK, AFR/SA CPALMA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 07164 01 OF 02 201308Z PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/10 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY CRANKS UP INTIMIDATION FOR NEW BY-ELECTION CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY IS CRANKING ITS VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION MACHINE INTO HIGH GEAR FOR THE BIKITA WEST BY-ELECTION NOW SCHEDULED FOR JANUARY 13-14, 2001. THE BY-ELECTION IS BEING HELD TO REPLACE THE MDC MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT WHO DIED OF AN ILLNESS IN NOVEMBER. YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER AND NEW ZANU-PF COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI HAS DEPLOYED BUSLOADS OF ZANU-PF YOUTH AND WAR VETERANS TO BIKITA WEST, IN MASVINGO PROVINCE, TO HARASS OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS, STEAL VOTER IDENTIFICATION CARDS, AND CLOSE OFF THE AREA TO MDC RALLIES, ACCORDING TO AN MDC ADVISOR IN BIKITA WEST. FIFTY PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN CLASHES BETWEEN MDC AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ON DECEMBER 17. THE MDC CANDIDATE HAS ALREADY GONE INTO HIDING. GIVEN THE MDC'S NARROW MARGIN OF VICTORY IN JUNE, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ZANU- PF WILL BE ABLE TO INTIMIDATE ANOTHER CONSTITUENCY INTO VOTING FOR ITS CANDIDATE AND BOOST ITS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON DECEMBER 19, POLOFF MET ALEX MUPA, AN MDC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 07164 01 OF 02 201308Z MEMBER AND ADVISOR TO MDC CANDIDATE FOR PARLIAMENT IN BIKITA WEST, BONIFACE PAKAI. MUPA REPORTED THAT AFTER ZANU-PF CONCLUDED ITS CONGRESS ON DECEMBER 16, YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER AND NEW RULING PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI DEPLOYED FIVE BUSLOADS AND 14 TRUCKLOADS OF ZANU-PF YOUTH AND WAR VETERANS TO NYIKA GROWTH POINT IN BIKITA WEST. (NOTE: GEZI, JUST ELEVATED TO THE POLITBURO, LED ZANU-PF'S INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN IN JUNE IN MASHONALAND WEST, WHERE HE WAS GOVERNOR. END NOTE.) THE YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTRY MAINTAINS A YOUTH TRAINING FACILITY IN BIKITA, SO THE PARTY CAN EASILY PUT UP HUNDREDS OF SUPPORTERS IN THE CONSTITUENCY, MUPA CLAIMED. TWO OF THE TRUCKS USED IN THE OPERATION WERE ARMY VEHICLES, HE ADDED. CHIKOMBA MP AND WAR VETERANS LEADER CHENJERAI HUNZVI AND SELF-STYLED FARM OCCUPATIONS LEADER JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA HAVE ALSO APPEARED IN BIKITA WEST TO ORGANIZE THE INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN. THE DECEMBER 19 "THE DAILY NEWS" REPORTED THAT, SHORTLY AFTER THE ZANU-PF OPERATIVES DESCENDED ON BIKITA WEST ON DECEMBER 17, CLASHES ERUPTED WITH MDC SUPPORTERS, AND 50 PEOPLE WERE INJURED. THE "NEWS" REPORTED THAT A YOUTH WEARING AN MDC T-SHIRT WAS SEVERELY BEATEN, AND MUPA CLAIMED HE LATER DIED FROM HIS INJURIES. ¶3. (C) THE ZANU-PF "TASK FORCE" HAS WASTED NO TIME IN INTIMIDATING THE RESIDENTS OF BIKITA WEST, ACCORDING TO MUPA. WAR VETERANS ARE BEATING UP SUSPECTED MDC SUPPORTERS, OCCUPYING COMMERCIAL FARMS AND THE BIKITA MINERALS PLANT, AND FORCING PEOPLE TO SURRENDER THEIR NATIONAL IDENTIFICATION CARDS SO THEY CANNOT VOTE IN JANUARY. WOMEN ARE BEING FORCED TO SCRUB PAINTED MDC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 07164 01 OF 02 201308Z MARKINGS OFF OF ASPHALT ROADWAYS, MUPA CONTINUED. FARM INVASIONS, WHICH BEGAN IN THE AREA LAST FEBRUARY, ARE INTENSIFYING: WAR VETS ARE FORCIBLY REMOVING FARM WORKERS FROM COMMERCIAL FARMS AND TRANSPORTING THEM TO COMMUNAL FARMS, AT LEAST THREE PROMINENT LOCAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND CATTLE RANCHERS HAVE FLED THE AREA, AND WORK ON THE FARMS HAS HALTED. ZANU-PF CADRES ARE ALSO THREATENING LOCAL CHIEFS AND SUB-CHIEFS, SAYING THAT IF THEY DO NOT MAKE THEIR SUBJECTS VOTE FOR ZANU- PF, THE RULING PARTY WILL TAKE AWAY THEIR GOVERNMENT SALARIES AND POWERS OF LAND APPORTIONMENT, ACCORDING TO THE MDC ADVISOR. ¶4. (C) THE MDC, FOR ITS PART, IS BEING FORCED TO HALT ITS CAMPAIGN AND REFOCUS ON CIVIC EDUCATION, MUPA REPORTED. THE WAR VETERANS HAVE THREATENED TO ABDUCT THE MDC CANDIDATE, BONIFACE PAKAI, AND HE HAS GONE INTO HIDING ALONG WITH HIS CAMPAIGN MANAGER. THE WIVES OF OTHER LOCAL MDC OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE AREA FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY, MUPA CONTINUED. SINCE OPEN CAMPAIGNING IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE, THE MDC IS REFOCUSING ITS EFFORTS ON CIVIC EDUCATION. THEY ARE COUNSELING BIKITA WEST RESIDENTS ON THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO VOTE, THE NEED TO REGISTER TO VOTE, AND THE IMPORTANCE OF HOLDING ON TO THEIR IDENTIFICATION CARDS. OPPOSITION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9193 PAGE 01 HARARE 07164 02 OF 02 201309Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W -------------- ADCFB9 201309Z /38 P 201308Z DEC 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7887 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 007164 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR A/AID RMCCALL, AA/AFR VDERRYCK, AFR/SA CPALMA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 07164 02 OF 02 201309Z PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/10 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY CRANKS UP INTIMIDATION FOR NEW BY-ELECTION SUPPORTERS ARE ALSO TELLING PEOPLE THAT THEY SHOULD NOT BE INTIMIDATED BY THE PRESENCE OF ZANU-PF CADRES. BELYING HIS CLAIM THAT THE MDC IS TAKING A STRICTLY NON- VIOLENT APPROACH, MUPA ADDED THAT ON THE NIGHT OF DECEMBER 18, MDC YOUTHS IN BIKITA PAID A CALL ON WAR VETERANS LEADER HUNZVI, BEAT HIM UP, AND SENT HIM FLEEING. ¶5. (C) MUPA WENT ON TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIKITA WEST VIOLENCE AS A LARGER CONFLICT BETWEEN THE KARANGA AND ZEZURU SUBCLANS OF THE SHONA ETHNIC GROUP. THE ZEZURU, WHO DOMINATE THE GOVERNMENT, ARE BENT ON BREAKING UP A PERCEIVED ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE KARANGA OF MASVINGO PROVINCE AND THE NDEBELE, WHO PREDOMINATE IN MATABELELAND. MUPA STATED THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE CAMPAIGN IN BIKITA WEST IS LINKED TO THE REMOVAL OF MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON ZVOBGO FROM THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO. MASVINGO, AND THE KARANGA OF BIKITA WEST, ARE BEING PUNISHED FOR ZVOBGO'S DEFIANCE OF PRESIDENT MUGABE. MUPA CLAIMED THAT ZANU-PF IS NO LONGER A NATIONAL PARTY, BUT PURELY AN INSTRUMENT OF THE ZEZURU SUBCLAN. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 07164 02 OF 02 201309Z ¶6. (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE SITUATION IN BIKITA WEST FIRST-HAND, WE FIND MUPA'S ACCOUNT CREDIBLE. BIKITA IS REMOTE AND NOT SUBJECT TO SCRUTINY BY THE INTERNATIONAL MEDIA, DIPLOMATIC CORPS, OR FOREIGN NON-GOVERNMENTAL OBSERVERS. THUS, WE INFER THE RULING PARTY FEELS LESS CONSTRAINED IN HOW IT APPLIES THE MAILED FIST TO THIS CONSTITUENCY THAT VOTED FOR THE MDC. ZANU-PF IS PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS TO PREVENT THE MDC FROM MOBILIZING POPULAR SUPPORT AND TO WHITTLE AWAY AT ITS SIZABLE MINORITY IN PARLIAMENT. THE MDC WON BIKITA WEST IN THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS BY FEWER THAN 300 VOTES, AND ZANU-PF APPARENTLY BELIEVES IT CAN RECAPTURE THE SEAT WITH OVERWHELMING INTIMIDATION. IT SAW THAT ITS VIOLENT TACTICS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THE NOVEMBER MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION, AND IT WILL STICK WITH ITS PROVEN STRATEGY. POPULAR DISSATISFACTION WITH ZANU-PF IS SO GREAT THAT THE PARTY SEES NO OTHER WAY TO STAY IN POWER. ANY ZANU-PF LOSSES AT THIS POINT WOULD ENCOURAGE MORE ZIMBABWEANS TO VOTE FOR THE OPPOSITION IN THE FUTURE. THE RULING PARTY IS UNWILLING TO TAKE ANY CHANCES. GIVEN THE OPPOSITION'S INABILITY TO EFFECTIVELY CAMPAIGN IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE POPULAR FEAR OF MORE VIOLENCE AND RETRIBUTION, THE MDC IS UNLIKELY TO RETAIN ITS SEAT IN BIKITA WEST. ¶7. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: WE HAVE HEARD THAT URBAN DWELLERS VISITING FAMILY IN BIKITA FOR THE HOLIDAYS MAY TRY TO PLAY A ROLE IN LEVELING THE PLAYING FIELD. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT URBAN MDC SUPPORTERS MAY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY PERIOD TO VISIT BIKITA AND BOTH BOLSTER THE RESOLVE OF BIKITA VOTERS AND "DEAL WITH" THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 07164 02 OF 02 201309Z ZANU-PF-DEPLOYED YOUTH AND WAR VETERANS. IF TRUE, THIS COULD WELL RESULT IN EVEN MORE VIOLENCE THAN WAS EXPERIENCED IN THE RECENT MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION. ALSO, IT COULD SIGNAL A NEW KIND OF TAKE-THE-BULL-BY- THE-HORNS "MASS ACTION" BY MDC SUPPORTERS. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >