UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 007163

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND
AFR/SA C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07163 01 OF 03 201212Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE
SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY
CONGRESS

REF: HARARE 6981 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY CDA EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
(UNDP) RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO BRIEFED
DIPLOMATIC HEADS OF MISSION AND SELECTED AID DIRECTORS
DECEMBER 19 ON THE CONTENTS OF ADMINISTRATOR MARK
MALLOCH-BROWN'S LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE TOLD THE
GATHERING THAT HE HAD DETECTED A SHIFT IN ZIMBABWEAN
GOVERNMENT ATTITUDES TOWARD ENGAGING THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF THE
RECENT EXTRAORDINARY ZANU-PF CONGRESS. MINISTER OF
LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING
IGNATIUS CHOMBO HAD ASSURED HIM THAT NEW INVASIONS OF
COMMERCIAL FARMS WOULD STOP, "DEMONSTRATORS" ON UNLISTED
AND FOREIGN OWNER FARMS WOULD BE REMOVED, AND THE WAR
VETERANS' VIOLENCE AND DEATH THREATS WOULD CEASE. THE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION (CFU) ALSO PERCEIVED A CHANGE
IN GOVERNMENT DISPOSITION AND REACTED QUICKLY, PUTTING
TOGETHER AN ARMS-LENGTH NEGOTIATING TEAM TO EXPLORE A
WAY FORWARD WITH THE GOVERNMENT, ANGELO REPORTED. OTHER
SOURCES HAVE CONFIRMED SIMILAR SIGNS OF MOVEMENT FROM
THE GOVERNMENT. THE GENERAL REACTION TO ANGELO'S NEWS
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WAS ONE OF SKEPTICISM. WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
SUPPORT TO THE UNDP INITIATIVE, OUR VIEW OF A GOVERNMENT
CONVERSION TO THE RULE OF LAW IS LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN
THAT OF VICTOR ANGELO. WE SEE GOVERNMENT ADHERENCE TO
RULE OF LAW IN THE BIKITA WEST BY-ELECTION AND CABINET'S
REACTION TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER AS KEY INDICATORS
THAT HARARE IS READY TO DEAL CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH US ON
LAND REFORM. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) DURING A MEETING DECEMBER 19 TO BRIEF HEADS OF
MISSION AND SELECTED AID DIRECTORS ON UNDP ADMINISTRATOR
MARK MALLOCH-BROWN'S LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE
(REFTEL),RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO REPORTED
A CHANGE IN ATTITUDE FROM KEY ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT
PLAYERS ON THE LAND QUESTION FOLLOWING THE JUST-
CONCLUDED ZANU-PF EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS. ANGELO CITED
A MEETING HE HAD HAD DECEMBER 18 WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT,
PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING MINISTER IGNATIUS
CHOMBO, HEAD OF THE GOZ'S LAND TASK FORCE, WHOSE BODY
LANGUAGE AND REACTIONS TO A VERBAL PRESENTATION OF THE
CONTENTS OF MALLOCH-BROWN'S LETTER THE FORMER FOUND
"ENCOURAGING." THE MINISTER REPORTEDLY CHARACTERIZED
THE CURRENT CONJUNCTURE IN ZIMBABWE AS THE "MOST SERIOUS
AND COMPLEX SINCE INDEPENDENCE."


3. (C) ACCORDING TO THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE,
CHOMBO SAID THAT HE WOULD MAKE OFFICE SPACE AVAILABLE TO
A TEAM THAT WOULD BE WORKING ON IMPLEMENTING THE LAND
REFORM IN A MORE ORGANIZED WAY. THE MINISTER INFORMED
ANGELO THAT HE HAD EARLIER THAT DAY MET WITH THE WAR
VETERANS' LEADERSHIP AND SENIOR COMMANDERS FROM THE
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MILITARY, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION AND THE
POLICE. IN THE GATHERING, THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC
WORKS AND HOUSING MINISTER REPORTEDLY CONVEYED A REQUEST
FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE HIMSELF THAT THE WAR VETERANS
REMOVE "DEMONSTRATORS" FROM COMMERCIAL FARMS THAT HAD
NOT BEEN LISTED OR FROM FARMS THAT WERE AGRIBUSINESS
CONCERNS. FURTHERMORE, HE ASKED THE LEADERSHIP OF THE
NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS' ASSOCIATION TO STOP
MAKING DEATH THREATS, AND CEASE SANCTIONING THE USE OF
VIOLENCE AGAINST COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND THEIR FARM
WORKERS. THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE TOLD THE
MINISTER THAT HE TOOK NOTE OF THE INFORMATION AND WOULD
MONITOR PROGRESS OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION ON THE GROUND.
CHOMBO AND OTHERS "IN THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE" HAD BEEN
SENDING SIGNALS THE PAST TWO WEEKS THAT LINES OF
COMMUNICATION WERE NOT CLOSED, ANGELO CONTINUED, AND
THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS VERY MUCH INTERESTED IN STUDYING
MALLOCH-BROWN'S PROPOSALS. MOREOVER, THE UNDP RESIDENT
REPRESENTATIVE REPORTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT PLANNED TO
"DE-LIST" FARMS THAT FELL UNDER THE ZIMBABWE INVESTMENT
CENTER AND AGRIBUSINESS (I.E., FOREIGN OWNED INTERESTS).

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ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00
VCE-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 SS-00 STR-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02
DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W
-------------- ADC6D2 201213Z /38
P 201212Z DEC 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7884
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 007163

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND
AFR/SA C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07163 02 OF 03 201213Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE
SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY
CONGRESS


4. (C) THE CFU HAD DETECTED A SHIFT IN GOVERNMENT
DISPOSITION AS WELL, ANGELO REPORTED. THE ORGANIZATION
HAD APPOINTED A THREE-PERSON TEAM, CONSISTING OF
INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE NOT ELECTED OFFICIALS BUT ENJOYED
THE TRUST OF BOTH SIDES, TO ENGAGE THE GOVERNMENT IN
NEGOTIATIONS AND REPORT TO THE CFU LEADERSHIP. THE
RATIONALE OF FORMING THE TEAM WAS TO GIVE IT SOME
AUTONOMY OF ACTION, TO KEEP THE CFU LEADERSHIP AT ARM'S
LENGTH, AND TO AVOID EXPOSING THE LEADERSHIP FURTHER.
ANGELO CONCLUDED THAT THE CFU HAD TWO CHOICES: TO
CONTINUE WITH ITS COURT CASES AND WIN THEM BUT LOSE THE
BATTLE, OR RESOLVE SOME OF THE ISSUES OUTSIDE THE COURTS
AND SKETCH OUT A WAY FORWARD. ANGELO ENDORSED THE
LATTER SORT OF PRAGMATISM WITHIN A SERIOUS SITUATION.
THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR CONCURRED REGARDING THE MARKED
DIFFERENCE IN THE CFU LEADERSHIP'S MOOD. HE SPECULATED
THAT IT MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO THE FACT THAT, IN SPITE OF
THE VITUPERATIVE TIRADES AGAINST THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS
AND WHITES IN GENERAL, THE PARTY CONGRESS HAD CONCLUDED
THAT ZANU-PF WILL NOT WIN WITH THE FAST TRACK LAND
RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE.


5. (C) BUTTRESSING THE FOREGOING SIGNS OF A POSSIBLE
EASING OF THE GOZ'S HARD-LINE STANCE, ONE OF ZIMBABWE'S
LEADING AND VERY WELL-CONNECTED ECONOMIC COMMENTATORS
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TOLD ECONOFF ON DECEMBER 19 THAT HE HAD SEEN DEFINITE
SIGNS OVER THE LAST WEEK THAT TOP LEADERSHIP HAD
DISCUSSED THE ISSUE AT CABINET LEVEL, AND APPARENTLY
AGREED TO AT LEAST ENGAGE IN SERIOUS DIALOGUE. SIMBA
MAKONI AND NKOSONA MOYO (THE FINANCE AND TRADE
MINISTERS),VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH MSIKA AND MIDLANDS
PROVINCE GOVERNOR CEPHAS MSIPA, ALL SEPARATELY TOLD THE
ECONOMIST THAT THE GOVERNMENT AT LEAST WANTED TO ENGAGE
IN DIALOGUE AND EXPLORE A POSSIBLE FACE-SAVING WAY
FORWARD. SOME ISSUES, SUCH AS A RETURN TO THE WILLING
SELLER-WILLING BUYER BASIS AND COMPENSATION FOR THE LAND
WERE NON-NEGOTIABLE; HOWEVER THE INVASIONS COULD BE
SLOWED DOWN OR SUSPENDED IF THERE WOULD BE INTERNATIONAL
ASSISTANCE FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT. THREE OF THE
FOUR EMPHASIZED THAT EVICTIONS (OF THE RESETTLED) COULD
NOT TAKE PLACE, BUT THE WAR VETERANS' ARDOR COULD BE
TONED DOWN. AS AN OUTWARD MANIFESTATION OF THIS
TACTICAL SHIFT, THE ECONOMIST POINTED OUT THAT IN A
SPEECH DELIVERED AT A MILITARY SCHOOL OFFICER
COMMISSIONING CEREMONY ON DECEMBER 16 IN GWERU ON THE
HEELS OF THE PARTY CONGRESS, PRESIDENT MUGABE TOLD THE
AUDIENCE IN SHONA THAT NO ADDITIONAL INVASIONS SHOULD
OCCUR, AND THAT THE RESETTLED NEEDED TO CONSOLIDATE
THEIR GAINS AND WORK ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY.


6. (C) THE GENERAL DONOR REACTION TO ANGELO'S NEWS WAS
MIXED, TENDING TOWARD THE SKEPTICAL AND WE'LL-BELIEVE-
IT-WHEN-WE-SEE-IT. THE SPANISH AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED
MINISTER CHOMBO'S OSTENSIBLE ASSURANCES AS "WISHFUL
THINKING." THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S REPRESENTATIVE
REMINDED THOSE ASSEMBLED THAT THE PARTY CONGRESS FULLY
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PAGE 04 HARARE 07163 02 OF 03 201213Z
BACKED THE FAST-TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM. THE DANISH
AMBASSADOR SAID, "IT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR US. THE
TAXPAYERS AND THE POLITICIANS HAVE HEARD THE RHETORIC,"
AND WILL NOT HELP THE CURRENT ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT.
ANGELO'S FINAL COMMENT BACKPEDALED FROM HIS EARLIER
ATTEMPT TO SPIN SOME OPTIMISM, "I DIDN'T SAY THAT THERE
WAS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL; I SAID THAT WE WERE
IN A TUNNEL..."


7. COMMENT: WE ARE PREPARED TO FOLLOW THE MALLOCH-
BROWN INITIATIVE AS FAR AS IT GOES. THAT SAID, WE
DETECT A SHIFT IN GOAL POSTS MORE THAN ATTITUDES OR
BEHAVIOR HERE. OUR CONCERN ABOUT RULE OF LAW IS NO
LONGER FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON LAND. WE MUST LOOK AT
VIOLENCE IN THE MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION AND THAT
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE JANUARY 13-14 BIKITA BY-ELECTION,
THE GOVERNMENT'S PROBABLY UNCONSTITUTIONAL INVALIDATION
OF THE ELECTORAL CHALLENGES BY PRESIDENTIAL DECREE, THE
THREATS ON THE JUDICIARY FROM ALL SIDES, AND THE
PRESIDENT'S RACE-BAITING AND IGNORING ORDERS FROM THE
HIGH AND SUPREME COURTS. THE BREAKDOWN IN RESPECT FOR
LAW AND ORDER IS GETTING VERY SERIOUS AND MAY WELL

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ACTION IO-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00
VCE-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 SS-00 STR-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02
DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W
-------------- ADC6D7 201213Z /38
P 201212Z DEC 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7885
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 007163

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL, AA/AFR V. DERRYCK AND
AFR/SA C. PALMA

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 07163 03 OF 03 201213Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE SEES POSSIBLE
SHIFT IN GOZ ATTITUDE ON LAND REFORM FOLLOWING PARTY
CONGRESS

BACKFIRE ON THE GOVERNMENT (ANGELO HIMSELF SAID THAT
SOME OF HIS GOVERNMENT INTERLOCUTORS HAD ACKNOWLEDGED
THIS "PANDORA'S BOX"). WE WILL LOOK FOR SOLID SIGNS OF
A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW, NOT ONLY IN BIKITA, BUT
ALSO ON THE FARMS AND AT STATE HOUSE. CABINET'S
REACTION TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN INITIATIVE WILL BE
IMPORTANT, TOO. AT THE MOMENT, AND IN SPITE OF VICTOR
ANGELO'S UNSINKABLE OPTIMISM, THE PROVERBIAL GLASS STILL
APPEARS TO BE HALF-EMPTY TO US. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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