ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION CANCELS PLANS FOR MASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 006584 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/10 TAGS: PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE OPPOSITION CANCELS PLANS FOR MASS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 06584 271305Z ACTION REFTEL: HARARE 6564 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) THE MDC'S NATIONAL COUNCIL DECIDED AT AN EXTRAORDINARY MEETING NOVEMBER 24 (REFTEL) TO CANCEL PLANS FOR MASS ACTION. THE NOVEMBER 25 "THE HERALD" QUOTED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AS SAYING MASS ACTION HAD BEEN "DEFERRED INDEFINITELY." TSVANGIRAI ALSO STATED THAT THE CIRCUMSTANCES FOR MASS ACTION WOULD BE "CONSTANTLY REVIEWED" TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNMENT TO HOLD EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DUE BY MID-2000. ¶2. (C) IN A CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF NOVEMBER 27, HOWEVER, MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE SAID THE MDC HAS CANCELED ALTOGETHER PLANS FOR MASS ACTION AND THAT THE MATTER WOULD NO LONGER BE CONSIDERED. THE MDC IS SAYING PUBLICLY THAT MASS ACTION IS BEING "DEFERRED" AND "POSTPONED" TO KEEP THE GOVERNMENT GUESSING, BUT, IN REALITY, IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE MDC WILL EVER ORGANIZE ANY FORM OF MASS ACTION BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, NCUBE EMPHASIZED. THE MDC BELIEVES THAT THE SUCCESS OF MASS ACTION CANNOT BE ASSURED, AND THAT, UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, IT IS NOT IN THE COUNTRY'S BEST INTEREST TO ENCOURAGE A "SAVAGE RESPONSE" FROM THE GOVERNMENT. NCUBE STATED THAT HIS PARTY HAD INFORMATION THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS PLANNING A STATE OF EMERGENCY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06584 271305Z AND BRUTAL CRACKDOWN IF MASS ACTION CAME TO PASS. THE PROVINCIAL REPRESENTATIVES ALSO REPORTED AT THE COUNCIL MEETING THAT THE CIO HAS HEAVILY INFILTRATED THE MDC'S PROVINCIAL STRUCTURES, AND THAT, AFTER BEING INFORMED BY THE CIO, THE ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC) ANNOUNCED DECEMBER 6 AS THE DATE FOR MASS ACTION. THIS REMOVED THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE, NCUBE CONTINUED, AND WAS ANOTHER REASON FOR CANCELING THE MASS ACTION. ¶3. (C) IN SPEAKING TO PAUL NYATI, MP FOR GWANDA NORTH AND MDC DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS, ON NOVEMBER 27 ON THE MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION (TO BE REPORTED SEPTEL), POLOFF ALSO LEARNED THAT CONSULTATIONS WITH MDC RURAL STRUCTURES ON MASS ACTION HAD NOT BEEN COMPLETED OR THOROUGHLY COORDINATED. A NUMBER OF MDC MEMBERS HAD MADE TOO MANY STATEMENTS ABOUT UPCOMING MASS ACTION PLANS FOR IT TO BE A REAL SURPRISE TO THE GOVERNMENT, NYATI STATED. THE MP ALSO CITED MEMBERS AS WANTING TO BE WITH THEIR FAMILIES OVER THE HOLIDAYS AS AN ADDITIONAL REASON FOR CANCELING THE MASS ACTION. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: THE NATIONAL COUNCIL'S DECISION FOLLOWS THE MDC MODUS OPERANDI: THREATEN AND PLAN POLITICAL ACTION, BUT BACK OFF AT THE LAST MINUTE WHEN VIOLENCE SEEMS INEVITABLE. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT WESTERN COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY THE US, PLAYED A ROLE IN DISCOURAGING ACTIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO VIOLENCE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MDC'S "RADICAL" WING AND YOUTH ELEMENTS IN HARARE WILL ACCEPT THE DECISION. A SPLIT IN THE MDC REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AND SOME RADICAL ELEMENTS COULD STILL TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 06584 271305Z IT PROBABLY WILL DIFFUSE TENSION IN THE SHORT-TERM, THE CANCELLATION OF MASS ACTION COULD ALSO TAKE THE WIND OUT OF THE MDC'S SAILS AND LEAVE THE OPPOSITION IN LIMBO UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002. FURTHERMORE, THE MDC COULD BRING THE MASS ACTION PROPOSAL BACK TO CENTER STAGE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2001 IF DAILY LIVING CONDITIONS GET AS BAD AS EXPECTED HERE. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >