TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006564 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE NOVEMBER 24 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON NOVEMBER 21, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, PRESIDENT OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC),BRIEFED THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON THE MDC VIEW OF THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE IN THE CONTEXT OF AN EU-SADC CONFERENCE TO BE HELD IN BOTSWANA NOVEMBER 24 TO DECEMBER 1. TSVANGIRAI SAID IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR SADC, THE EU, AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DEAL WITH ZIMBABWE'S CRISIS WITH FORESIGHT. THE MDC LEADER STATED THAT HE IS NOT SEEKING INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, BUT SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES IN ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC HAD TRIED TO WORK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) AND THE RULING ZANU-PF IN PARLIAMENT SINCE THE JUNE ELECTIONS, BUT HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY MET WITH HOSTILITY AND VINDICTIVENESS. HE OUTLINED FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS OF DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS HE AND HIS PARTY ARE CONSIDERING: 1) WAITING FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 2) EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 3) MASS ACTION WITH NO GOVERNMENT REPRESSION, AND 4) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z MASS ACTION RESULTING IN POLICE AND MILITARY REPRESSION THAT COULD LEAD TO MARTIAL LAW. TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD MADE A DECISION ON THE QUESTION OF MASS ACTION, AND THE PARTY COUNCIL WILL MEET NOVEMBER 24 TO VOTE WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE'S DECISION. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- MORGAN TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) ECONOFF ATTENDED A NOVEMBER 21 BRIEFING BY THE MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS. THE BRIEFING WAS WELL ATTENDED BY REPRESENTATIVES FROM ALL THE MAJOR DONOR COUNTRIES. TSVANGIRAI SAID THE PURPOSE OF THE BRIEFING WAS TO SHARE SIPDIS THE MDC'S PERSPECTIVE ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE PRIOR TO AN EU-SADC CONFERENCE IN BOTSWANA FROM NOVEMBER 24 TO DECEMBER 1. HE STATED THAT THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR HAD WANTED THE MDC INVITED TO THE CONFERENCE, BUT THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF BOTSWANA HAD VETOED THIS DECISION AS "UNDEMOCRATIC." (NOTE: TSVANGIRAI DID NOT SAY WHAT COUNTRY THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR WAS ACCREDITED TO, AND ECONOFF WAS NOT ABLE TO GET A CLARIFICATION ON THIS. END NOTE.) -------------- THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -------------- ¶3. (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC IS NOT SEEKING THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 06564 01 OF 03 221603Z INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S SUPPORT FOR THE PARTY. WHAT IS CRITICAL IS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SUPPORTS HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES IN ZIMBABWE. WHEN ASKED WHAT HAD BEEN HIS GOAL IN MEETING WITH NELSON MANDELA A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, TSVANGIRAI STATED IT WAS TWO-FOLD: FIRST, MANDELA HAS TREMENDOUS INFLUENCE AND CLOUT IN THE REGION, AND COULD COMMUNICATE TO THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA THE IMPORTANCE OF REVIEWING ITS POSITION ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE; AND SECOND, TO GIVE ASSURANCE THAT AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT SEEK RETRIBUTION AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE STATED THAT HE WAS NOT ASKING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, OR MANDELA, TO APPLY PRESSURE TO THE GOZ, BUT RATHER TO BRING REASON TO BEAR. -------------- DEALING WITH ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ -------------- ¶4. (C) TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC HAD TRIED (AFTER THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS) TO WORK WITH THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF IN PARLIAMENT ON ISSUES OF COMMON CONCERN, SUCH AS THE ECONOMY AND LAND REFORM, BUT FOUND THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF VINDICTIVE AND UNWILLING TO WORK WITH THE OPPOSITION PARTY. THE MDC LEADER EXPLAINED THAT ZANU-PF IS UNWILLING TO ACCEPT THAT PUBLIC OPINION IN MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IS AGAINST THEM, AND IT IS WILLING TO USE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4750 PAGE 01 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- A2C377 221613Z /38 P 221602Z NOV 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7682 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006564 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE NOVEMBER 24 VIOLENCE TO STAY IN POWER. TSVANGIRAI SAID THIS IS EXEMPLIFIED BY THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE OCCURRING IN MARONDERA WEST, WHERE A BY-ELECTION FOR A SEAT IN PARLIAMENT WILL BE HELD ON NOVEMBER 25 AND 26. HE WAS SCHEDULED TO SPEAK AT AN MDC RALLY IN MARONDERA ON NOVEMBER 17, BUT CANCELLED WHEN IT BECAME CLEAR THAT WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WOULD RESORT TO VIOLENCE TO DISRUPT THE RALLY. (NOTE: A VIOLENT ALTERCATION BETWEEN ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS AND MDC SUPPORTERS IN MARONDERA STILL OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 17, AND AN INNOCENT BYSTANDER WAS SHOT DEAD IN AN EXCHANGE OF GUNFIRE. END NOTE). TSVANGIRAI STATED IT WAS CLEAR THERE CAN BE NO PEACEFUL FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, AND THAT THE MDC WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED INTO WITHDRAWING FROM THIS OR OTHER ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE. -------------- THE FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS -------------- ¶5. (C) TSVANGIRAI TOLD HIS AUDIENCE THAT THE MDC WAS NOW CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z CONSIDERING FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR ITS ROLE IN ZIMBABWE'S FUTURE: 1) WAIT FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS STRATEGY IS THAT PEOPLE ARE IMPATIENT AND WANT CHANGE NOW. HE ALSO QUESTIONED WHO WAS GOING TO UNDERWRITE THE GOZ FOR THE NEXT 18 MONTHS WHILE IT DESTROYS THE ECONOMY. 2) AN ACCELERATED CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS LEADING TO EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. HE SAID THIS WAS A LEGITIMATE OPTION BECAUSE PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS LOST HIS MANDATE TO RULE, AND WHY SHOULD THE PEOPLE WAIT 18 MONTHS FOR A CHANGE WHEN THE COUNTRY CANNOT AFFORD IT. 3) A MASS ACTION. THE QUESTIONS ARE WHEN WILL IT OCCUR, AND WILL IT PLUNGE ZIMBABWE INTO CHAOS? HE STATED THAT HE WANTED ANY MASS ACTION TO BE PEACEFUL AND WITHIN THE LAW, AND THAT THE GOZ WILL NOT RESPOND WITH FORCE AGAINST A PEACEFUL MASS ACTION. 4) A MASS ACTION WITH GOZ REPRESSION. TSVANGIRAI TOLD THE GROUP THAT HE WAS CONCERNED THAT A MASS ACTION WOULD BE MET BY SEVERE POLICE AND MILITARY REPRESSION, POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 06564 02 OF 03 221604Z MARTIAL LAW. HE DID NOT BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO WOULD HAPPEN, BECAUSE THE POLICE AND MILITARY IN ZIMBABWE RESPECT THE CONSTITUTIONAL ROLE OF CIVILIAN CONTROL. -------------- MDC TO LEAD MASS ACTION IN DECEMBER? -------------- ¶6. (C) AFTER LAYING OUT THESE SCENARIOS, TSVANGIRAI TOLD THE GATHERING THAT THE MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD MADE A DECISION REGARDING WHETHER TO CALL FOR A MASS ACTION. (COMMENT: TSVANGIRAI WAS DELIBERATELY VAGUE ON WHAT THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DECIDED. END COMMENT.) THE PARTY COUNCIL, REPRESENTING THE MDC'S 12 PROVINCES, WILL MEET NOVEMBER 24 TO VOTE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE'S DECISION. (NOTE: THE MDC DIVIDES ZIMBABWE INTO 12 "PROVINCES" FOR REPRESENTATION ON ITS PARTY COUNCIL, WHICH IS THE SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY OF THE MDC. THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE ACTS ON THE COUNCIL'S BEHALF WHEN IT IS NOT IN SESSION. THE COUNCIL MEETS INFREQUENTLY AND ONLY TO MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS. END NOTE.) ¶7. (C) COMMENT: WHILE WE HAVE STRONGLY COUNSELED TSVANGIRAI AND THE MDC LEADERSHIP REGARDING THE RISKS OF SIPDIS CALLING FOR MARCHES OR DEMONSTRATIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO FURTHER BLOODSHED AND REPRESSION, TSVANGIRAI'S BRIEFING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4751 PAGE 01 HARARE 06564 03 OF 03 221604Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- A2C385 221613Z /38 P 221602Z NOV 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7683 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006564 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 06564 03 OF 03 221604Z PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/10 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MDC VIEWS; SAYS DECISION ON A MASS ACTION WILL BE MADE NOVEMBER 24 INDICATED THAT THE MDC IS STILL SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING SOME FORM OF MASS ACTION IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE, PERHAPS TO COINCIDE WITH THE ZANU-PF PARTY CONGRESS IN DECEMBER. HOWEVER, TSVANGIRAI CLEARLY DID NOT WANT TO PUT ALL HIS CARDS ON THE TABLE BY REVEALING THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE'S DECISION, POSSIBLY IN CASE THE PARTY COUNCIL TURNS DOWN ITS RECOMMENDATION ON THE FORM THE MASS ACTION SHOULD TAKE. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >