TSVANGIRAI QUESTIONED AND RELEASED BY POLICE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005728 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/11/10 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI QUESTIONED AND RELEASED BY POLICE REF: A) HARARE 5681 B) HARARE 5585 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05728 111814Z ¶1. (U) AT THE REQUEST OF POLICE, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI SPENT TWO HOURS ON OCTOBER 10 AT THE CRIMINAL SIPDIS INVESTIGATIONS DIVISION (CID) ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN CONNECTION WITH HIS STATEMENT AT A POLITICAL RALLY ON SEPTEMBER 30. AS REPORTED REF B, TSVANGIRAI SAID AT THE RALLY THAT MUGABE "SHOULD GO PEACEFULLY. IF NOT, WE WILL REMOVE YOU VIOLENTLY." IN SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT PUBLIC APPEARANCES, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD MEANT THAT, IF THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT DOES NOT CHOOSE TO GO PEACEFULLY, THE PUBLIC, ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED BY THE DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMY AND BY THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ENSURE THE RULE OF LAW, WILL FORCE HIM TO GO. ¶2. (U) IN A PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER HIS QUESTIONING, TSVANGIRAI SAID POLICE HAD TREATED HIM WELL. THEY HAD SIPDIS TAKEN HIS FINGERPRINTS AND INFORMED HIM OF FIVE POSSIBLE CHARGES THAT MIGHT BE BROUGHT AGAINST HIM. TSVANGIRAI EXPECTED THE POLICE WOULD SOON PRESENT ITS EVIDENCE TO THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL'S OFFICE, WHICH WOULD DECIDE WHETHER TO PROCEED WITH PROSECUTION. ¶3. (C) POLOFF SPOKE ON OCTOBER 11 WITH GANDI MUDZINGWA, TSVANGIRAI'S CLOSE AIDE WHO ACCOMPANIED THE MDC PRESIDENT SIPDIS TO CID HEADQUARTERS. MUDZINGWA SAID THE FIVE POTENTIAL CHARGES MENTIONED BY POLICE RELATED TO CONDUCT INTENDED TO BRING THE NAME OF THE PRESIDENT INTO DISREPUTE OR LIKELY TO INCITE VIOLENCE OR HOSTILITY AGAINST THE PRESIDENT. ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA, THE POLICE WERE NOT SURE WHICH CHARGES WERE MOST RELEVANT, SO THEY WERE CASTING A WIDE NET. IN THE MEANTIME, TSVANGIRAI HAS NOT BEEN FORMALLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05728 111814Z CHARGED AND IS CIRCULATING FREELY. ASKED WHETHER HE THOUGHT THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL WOULD DECIDE TO PROSECUTE, MUDZINGWA SAID THE GOZ IS INCREASINGLY DESPERATE, AND HE WAS RELUCTANT TO PREDICT WHAT STEPS PEOPLE IN SUCH A STATE MIGHT TAKE. HE EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE, THOUGH, THAT MDC LAWYERS WOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO REFUTE THE CHARGES IN COURT. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) ALTHOUGH TSVANGIRAI HAS BEEN ROUNDLY CRITICIZED -- AND APPROPRIATELY SO -- BY OBSERVERS OF ALL POLITICAL STRIPES FOR HIS CARELESS REMARK ON SEPTEMBER 30, HE AND OTHER MDC OFFICIALS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY DOES NOT ADVOCATE THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF PRESIDENT MUGABE. WE THINK TSVANGIRAI WAS SURPRISED -- AND CHASTENED -- BY THE REACTION TO HIS WORDS AND WILL BE MORE CAREFUL IN THE FUTURE ABOUT WHAT HE SAYS IN PUBLIC. WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT THE MDC REMAINS A PARTY COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING ITS POLITICAL OBJECTIVES USING PEACEFUL MEANS. ¶5. (C) THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS HOW THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO PROCEED. THE GOZ MUST BE VERY CAREFUL, AS TSVANGIRAI'S ARREST COULD TRIGGER WIDESPREAD ANGER AND PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS WHICH MIGHT PROVE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. WE SUSPECT THAT THE PUBLIC REACTION IN THE FRY AFTER PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC'S RECENT ELECTORAL DEFEAT LIKELY IS A POWERFUL IMAGE IN THE MINDS OF PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS. AS MUDZINGWA PUT IT TO US, THE GOZ MADE SO MUCH NOISE ABOUT TSVANGIRAI'S COMMENTS THAT IT HAD AT LEAST TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05728 111814Z APPEAR TO BRING HIM TO TASK. THE QUESTIONING BY POLICE, WHICH OVER THE OCTOBER 7-8 WEEKEND HAD BEEN MANEUVERING ITSELF INTO A LOSE-LOSE SITUATION THANKS TO ITS SPOKESMAN'S TUB THUMPING ABOUT RUNNING IN TSVANGIRAI, COULD ALLOW THE GOVERNMENT TO SAVE FACE WITHOUT HAVING TO COPE WITH THE VOLATILE CONSEQUENCES OF ARRESTING HIM. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >