AMBASSADOR WARNS MDC NOT TO USE VIOLENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005666 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR WARNS MDC NOT TO USE VIOLENT RHETORIC REFS: A) SECSTATE 192558, B) HARARE 5629, C) HARARE 5585, D) HARARE 5581, E) MDC STATEMENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05666 051716Z FAXED TO DEPARTMENT CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD DELIVERED REF A DEMARCHE TO MDC NATIONAL CHAIRMAN ISAAC MATONGO, WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S POLITICAL ADVISOR AND RIGHT-HAND MAN, GANDI MUDZINGWA, IN THE ABSENCE OF MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, WHO IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE COUNTRY. WE DO NOT EXPECT HIM TO RETURN UNTIL NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. DRAWING ON THE POINTS IN PARAGRAPH TWO OF REF A, AMBASSADOR CONVEYED THE USG'S STRONG CONCERN ABOUT TSVANGIRAI'S SEPTEMBER 30 STATEMENTS WARNING OF VIOLENCE SIPDIS AGAINST MUGABE IF HE DOES NOT RESIGN SOON. THESE STATEMENTS ARE NOT HELPFUL FOR DEMOCRATIC DISCOURSE AND COULD PROVIDE THE PRETEXT THE GOZ IS LOOKING FOR TO CRACK DOWN HARSHLY ON THE MDC. AMBASSADOR ADVISED IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THAT TSVANGIRAI, GIVEN HIS LEADERSHIP POSITION AND THE TENSE POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE, SHOULD NOT SPEAK OF VIOLENT ACTIONS, EVEN OBLIQUELY, AND ONLY CONSIDER PEACEFUL MASS ACTION. ¶2. (C) MATONGO RESPONDED BY SAYING THAT THE MDC AND ITS PRESIDENT, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, HAVE ALWAYS STOOD FOR NON- VIOLENCE. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT TSVANGIRAI GOT CARRIED AWAY. MATONGO, WHO ATTENDED THE SEPTEMBER 30 RALLY AND SAT NEXT TO THE MDC LEADER, QUOTED TSVANGIRAI AS SAYING THE MDC WILL ALWAYS TRY TO CHANGE THE GOVERNMENT PEACEFULLY, BUT IF MUGABE DOES NOT GO, THE PEOPLE WILL TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS AND THE MDC LEADERSHIP CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05666 051716Z WILL BECOME BY-STANDERS. DESPITE MONTHS OF VIOLENCE AT THE HANDS OF RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS, THE MDC HAS NEVER RESPONDED VIOLENTLY AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. ON THE QUESTION OF MASS ACTION, THE MDC IS CONSULTING WITH OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, BUT DOES NOT HAVE ANY PLANS FOR MASS ACTION ANY TIME SOON. MATONGO STATED THAT AT A RALLY NEAR MUTARE EARLIER THIS WEEK, PEOPLE TOLD HIM THAT THEY CANNOT WAIT UNTIL 2002 TO SEE MUGABE GO. ZANU-PF IS INSTITUTING VIOLENCE AS ITS SOLE MEANS OF STAYING IN POWER, MATONGO PROFESSED, AND CITED RENEWED INTIMIDATION IN MARONDERA WEST, WHERE A PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION IS DUE TO BE HELD, MBERENGWA WEST, MREWA, AND OTHER DISTRICTS. SEVERAL MDC SUPPORTERS HAVE BEEN BEATEN UP AND ONE HOSPITALIZED IN THE LAST WEEK, ACCORDING TO THE MDC CHAIRMAN. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: IN OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH OTHER MDC OFFICIALS THIS WEEK, WE HAVE IMPRESSED UPON THEM THE IMPORTANCE OF REFRAINING FROM VIOLENT RHETORIC IN THIS TENSE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. ON SEPTEMBER 29, AMBASSADOR HAD URGED TSVANGIRAI TO USE RESTRAINT AND ABIDE BY THE LAW IN ANY MASS ACTION (REF D). IT IS CLEAR THAT THE MDC LEADERSHIP WAS EMBARRASSED BY TSVANGIRAI'S IMPRUDENT REMARKS. PUBLICLY, IT HAS GONE SIPDIS OUT OF ITS WAY TO PLAY DOWN THE STATEMENTS, SAYING THAT TSVANGIRAI WAS MERELY WARNING MUGABE THAT PUBLIC ANGER SIPDIS COULD FORCE HIM FROM POWER, AS IT HAS DONE WITH OTHER DICTATORS (REF E). INTERESTINGLY, MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR ON OCTOBER 4 THAT THE BACK-AND-FORTH WITH THE MDC OVER THE REMARKS IS MORE ABOUT POLITICS THAN ANYTHING ELSE (REF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05666 051716Z B). ON OCTOBER 4, IAN HAY-CAMPBELL, THE BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER HERE, INFORMED US THAT THE MDC EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAD DECIDED TO POSTPONE INDEFINITELY ANY MASS ACTION IN LIGHT OF TSVANGIRAI'S STATEMENT TO AVOID A HARSH REACTION FROM THE GOVERNMENT. MATONGO CONFIRMED THIS INFORMATION, EXPLAINING THAT THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAD NOT DECIDED ON THE DATE OR THE MEANS TO CONDUCT MASS ACTION. THE MDC CHAIRMAN ALSO HINTED THAT TSVANGIRAI MAY POSTPONE HIS RETURN FROM EUROPE UNTIL THIS EPISODE BLOWS OVER. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE MDC IS ABOUT TO STRAY FROM ITS POLICY OF NON- VIOLENCE, AND ITS DECISION TO POSTPONE MASS ACTION IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THIS. WE THINK OUR MESSAGE HAS BEEN RECEIVED AND TAKEN TO HEART. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >