ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 005629 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05629 01 OF 03 041739Z WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC REFS: A) HARARE 5579, B) HARARE 5585, C) HARARE 5602 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON OCTOBER 4, AMBASSADOR, R/P OFFICER, AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER) CALLED ON MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE, WHO OVERSEES THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO). IN A ONE-ON- ONE MEETING, AMBASSADOR URGED GOCHE TO USE RESTRAINT IN DEALING WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR HIS REMARKS AT A POLITICAL RALLY SEPTEMBER 30 (REF B). HE TOLD THE MINISTER HE HAD MADE THE SAME POINT TO TSVANGIRAI. GOCHE INFORMED AMBASSADOR THAT THE GOZ SIPDIS WOULD NOT/NOT ARREST TSVANGIRAI SO LONG AS THE MDC DID NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON ITS STATEMENTS OF VIOLENT ACTION AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. IN THE GENERAL MEETING, GOCHE STRESSED THAT THE GOZ CONTINUES TO PRESS KABILA HARD TO ABIDE BY LUSAKA AND BELIEVES THAT KABILA IS IN MORE OF A CONCILIATORY MOOD AFTER HIS RECENT VISITS WITH MUGABE (REF A). GOCHE INDICATED WITHDRAWAL PLANS EXISTED, BUT WAS UNWILLING TO DISCUSS ITS IMPLEMENTATION DATE. END SUMMARY. -------------- GOZ WILL NOT ARREST TSVANGIRAI -------------- ¶2. (C) IN A BRIEF ONE-ON-ONE MEETING WITH MINISTER OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05629 01 OF 03 041739Z STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE, AMBASSADOR STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF USING RESTRAINT WITH THE MDC DESPITE THE UNWISE REMARKS MADE BY ITS LEADER, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, AT A RALLY SEPTEMBER 30 IN HARARE. (NOTE: SIPDIS TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT IF MUGABE DID NOT RESIGN SOON, HIS SIPDIS SUPPORTERS WOULD RESORT TO VIOLENCE TO FORCE HIM OUT. MDC OFFICIALS HAVE SINCE BACKTRACKED ON THIS STATEMENT, SAYING THAT THE PARTY DOES NOT INTEND TO VIOLENTLY OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT BUT THAT ZIMBABWEANS MAY ACT SPONTANEOUSLY IF MUGABE DOES NOT LEAVE OFFICE SOON. IN FACT, THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS EMBARRASSED BY TSVANGIRAI'S GAFF. SEE REF B). GOCHE, WHO OVERSEES THE CIO FROM THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE, ASSURED THE AMBASSADOR THAT TSVANGIRAI WOULD NOT BE ARRESTED SO LONG AS THE MDC DOES SIPDIS NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON HIS REMARKS AND INCITE VIOLENT ACTION AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. GOCHE CHARACTERIZED THE REMARKS AS A POLITICAL STATEMENT, TO WHICH THE GOZ RESPONDED WITH ITS OWN POLITICAL STATEMENT SAYING IT MAY ARREST AND PROSECUTE TSVANGIRAI. GOCHE DESCRIBED THE EXCHANGE AS POLITICAL POSTURING THAT WOULD PROBABLY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. THE AMBASSADOR INFORMED GOCHE THAT WE HAVE URGED TSVANGIRAI AND HIS TEAM TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT. ¶3. (C) MORE OMINOUSLY, HOWEVER, GOCHE WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE BELIEVES THE MDC IS A VIOLENT PARTY THAT IMPORTS WEAPONS AND HAS NEFARIOUS PLANS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. GOCHE CITED THE SEPTEMBER 14-15 RAID ON THE MDC HEADQUARTERS. THE AMBASSADOR INTERJECTED, SAYING THAT THE MDC IS MORE ASTUTE THAN THAT AND SURELY REALIZES THAT IF IT WAS CAUGHT IMPORTING WEAPONS, IT WOULD INVITE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05629 01 OF 03 041739Z A MORE EXTENSIVE CRACKDOWN ON ITS ACTIVITIES. AMBASSADOR EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR BOTH SIDES TO USE MEASURED RESPONSES AND NOT TO BLOW THINGS OUT OF PROPORTION. -------------- DROC SITUATION -------------- ¶4. (C) IN THE GENERAL MEETING WITH R/P OFFICER AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER),AMBASSADOR ASKED GOCHE FOR AN APPRAISAL OF THE DROC SITUATION (GOCHE WAS IN THE REF B MEETINGS BETWEEN KABILA AND MUGABE). THE MINISTER SAID MONUC WAS STILL DEPLOYING DESPITE THE BUREAUCRATIC DIFFICULTIES IT HAS ENCOUNTERED, AND IT WOULD BE IN MBANDAKA SOON. HE EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE RENEWED FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE, AND SAID ZIMBABWE HAS WARNED MLC LEADER BEMBA TO STOP HIS ADVANCE ON MBANDAKA. NONETHELESS, ZIMBABWE REMAINS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH BEMBA AND HAS A GOOD RAPPORT WITH HIM, ACCORDING TO GOCHE. BEMBA IS NOT A "CHESS PLAYER" (I.E., NOT A SCHEMER) AND CAN BE TRUSTED WHEN HE SAYS THAT HE WILL STOP FIGHTING ONCE KABILA STOPS FIGHTING. -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9111 PAGE 01 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 MFA-01 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /011W -------------- 8D9F3E 041748Z /38 O 041715Z OCT 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7279 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 005629 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC KABILA IN MORE CONCILIATORY MOOD -------------- ¶5. (C) IN HIS MEETINGS WITH KABILA, MUGABE AGAIN PRESSED KABILA HARD ON THE IMPORTANCE OF OBSERVING THE LUSAKA CEASE-FIRE. WHEN ASKED IF MUGABE WAS BECOMING ANGRY WITH KABILA'S RECALCITRANCE, GOCHE STATED THAT MUGABE DOES NOT SHOW ANGER WITH KABILA, BUT DOES SPEAK TO HIM IN STRONG TERMS. THE MINISTER BELIEVED THAT KABILA GOT THE MESSAGE TO ABIDE BY LUSAKA. HE OBSERVED THAT KABILA APPEARED MORE RELAXED AND FORTHCOMING WITH MUGABE THAN IN PREVIOUS MEETINGS, AND THAT KABILA WAS COMING UP WITH NEW SUGGESTIONS ON THE WAY FORWARD, SOMETHING HE WAS NOT PRONE TO DO IN THE PAST. GOCHE SAID KABILA EVEN SHOWED SIGNS OF COMPROMISE ON THE STATUS OF FORMER BOTSWANA PRESIDENT MASIRE AS FACILITATOR, BUT THAT THIS WAS DISCUSSED PRIVATELY BETWEEN KABILA AND MUGABE. GOCHE DID SAY THAT KABILA WAS OPPOSED TO THE PRESENCE OF A MR. WINTER, A BRITISH NATIONAL, AS MASIRE'S ASSISTANT FACILITATOR. KABILA WANTS A FRENCH-SPEAKING AFRICAN IN THAT POSITION, ACCORDING TO THE MINISTER. -------------- MBEKI EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES MEETING -------------- ¶6. (C) SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT MBEKI'S PROPOSED MEETING BETWEEN THE LUSAKA EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES IS DUE TO BE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z HELD "SOON," GOCHE STATED, BUT NO FIRM DATE HAS BEEN SET (SEE REF C). MBEKI HAD ORIGINALLY PLANNED THE MEETING FOR THE SEPTEMBER 30 WEEKEND, BUT MUGABE OBJECTED TO THE SHORT NOTICE AND ASKED THAT IT BE SCHEDULED A LITTLE LATER. THE PURPOSE OF THE CONFERENCE, WHICH IS TO INCLUDE KABILA, IS TO REVIEW THE DROC CONFLICT, ENSURE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA, PUSH KABILA TO UNDERTAKE THE INTERNAL DIALOGUE PROCESS, AND TELL HIM THAT HE CANNOT BE A "PERPETUAL OBSTACLE" TO PEACE IN THE DROC. GOCHE ADDED THAT ZIMBABWE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE "PERSON" OF KABILA NECESSARILY, BUT THAT IT DOES SUPPORT THE "SOVEREIGNTY OF THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE." IF KABILA HELD ELECTIONS AND WAS ELECTED, ZIMBABWE WOULD SUPPORT HIM PERSONALLY IN THAT CASE. -------------- NO DETAILS ON EARLY WITHDRAWAL -------------- ¶7. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF ZIMBABWEAN FORCES FROM THE DROC, GOCHE WAS COY AND NON- COMMITTAL. EVEN THOUGH HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT PLANS WERE ALREADY FORMULATED, HE WOULD NOT SAY IT WOULD HAPPEN BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. GOCHE WAS RELUCTANT TO GO INTO FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT A WITHDRAWAL, BUT SAID IT WAS NOT CONTINGENT UPON MONUC DEPLOYMENT. AMBASSADOR ASKED GOCHE IF ZIMBABWE WOULD WITHDRAW IF THERE WAS NOT A FULL MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN DROC, AND HE SAID HE DID NOT KNOW. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: WE ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED BY GOCHE'S STATEMENT THAT THE GOZ DOES NOT INTEND TO ARREST CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z TSVANGIRAI AND WE SHARE HIS ASSESSMENT THAT THE BACK- SIPDIS AND-FORTH BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF THIS WEEK OVER THE ISSUE IS MORE ABOUT POLITICAL POSTURING THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THEY DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TSVANGIRAI A MARTYR. TSVANGIRAI'S OVERBLOWN STATEMENT WAS LIKELY DONE IN THE SIPDIS HEAT OF THE MOMENT, BUT NEITHER SIDE SEEMS EAGER FOR A FIGHT IN THE CURRENT TENSE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. OF MORE CONCERN IS AN MDC ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE MASS STAY- AWAYS OR A GENERAL STRIKE. IAN HAY-CAMPBELL, THE BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER HERE, TOLD US THAT THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAS DECIDED TO POSTPONE INDEFINITELY ANY MASS ACTION IN LIGHT OF TSVANGIRAI'S WEEKEND STATEMENT. ¶9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: REGARDING GOCHE'S STATEMENTS ON THE DROC, WE ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO HEAR THAT KABILA SEEMS TO BE IN A MORE FLEXIBLE MOOD. THE ATTENTION AND STRAIGHT TALK CONVEYED TO HIM BY HIS ALLIES IN THE LAST WEEK HAS PROBABLY HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT. HOWEVER, THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GOZ ABOUT THE TIMING AND MANNER OF A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF ZIMBABWEAN FORCES FROM THE DROC. OUR INTERLOCUTORS SAY THAT IT IS NOT CONTINGENT UPON A MONUC DEPLOYMENT, BUT IN REALITY, IT PROBABLY IS. MUGABE HAS BEEN LOOKING FOR A FACE-SAVING WAY TO PULL OUT ALMOST SINCE HE WENT IN, AND THE FULL MONUC DEPLOYMENT WILL GIVE HIM THAT. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9110 PAGE 01 HARARE 05629 03 OF 03 041739Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 MFA-01 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /011W -------------- 8D9F3A 041748Z /38 O 041715Z OCT 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7280 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 005629 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05629 03 OF 03 041739Z WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC MUGABE IS IN A RACE TO CONVINCE KABILA TO COOPERATE WITH THE U.N. BEFORE THE FINANCIAL DRAIN AND POLITICAL OPPOSITION ARISING FROM THE DROC DEPLOYMENT FURTHER UNDERMINE HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >