C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 005629

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC
LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR
CONFIDENTIAL


PAGE 02 HARARE 05629 01 OF 03 041739Z
WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC

REFS: A) HARARE 5579, B) HARARE 5585, C) HARARE 5602

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: ON OCTOBER 4, AMBASSADOR, R/P OFFICER,
AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER) CALLED ON MINISTER OF STATE FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE, WHO OVERSEES THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO). IN A ONE-ON-
ONE MEETING, AMBASSADOR URGED GOCHE TO USE RESTRAINT IN
DEALING WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR HIS
REMARKS AT A POLITICAL RALLY SEPTEMBER 30 (REF B). HE
TOLD THE MINISTER HE HAD MADE THE SAME POINT TO
TSVANGIRAI. GOCHE INFORMED AMBASSADOR THAT THE GOZ

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WOULD NOT/NOT ARREST TSVANGIRAI SO LONG AS THE MDC DID
NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON ITS STATEMENTS OF VIOLENT ACTION
AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. IN THE GENERAL MEETING, GOCHE
STRESSED THAT THE GOZ CONTINUES TO PRESS KABILA HARD TO
ABIDE BY LUSAKA AND BELIEVES THAT KABILA IS IN MORE OF A
CONCILIATORY MOOD AFTER HIS RECENT VISITS WITH MUGABE
(REF A). GOCHE INDICATED WITHDRAWAL PLANS EXISTED, BUT
WAS UNWILLING TO DISCUSS ITS IMPLEMENTATION DATE. END
SUMMARY.

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GOZ WILL NOT ARREST TSVANGIRAI
--------------


2. (C) IN A BRIEF ONE-ON-ONE MEETING WITH MINISTER OF
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PAGE 03 HARARE 05629 01 OF 03 041739Z
STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE, AMBASSADOR
STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF USING RESTRAINT WITH THE MDC
DESPITE THE UNWISE REMARKS MADE BY ITS LEADER, MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI, AT A RALLY SEPTEMBER 30 IN HARARE. (NOTE:

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TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT IF MUGABE DID NOT RESIGN SOON, HIS

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SUPPORTERS WOULD RESORT TO VIOLENCE TO FORCE HIM OUT.
MDC OFFICIALS HAVE SINCE BACKTRACKED ON THIS STATEMENT,

SAYING THAT THE PARTY DOES NOT INTEND TO VIOLENTLY
OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT BUT THAT ZIMBABWEANS MAY ACT
SPONTANEOUSLY IF MUGABE DOES NOT LEAVE OFFICE SOON. IN
FACT, THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS EMBARRASSED BY TSVANGIRAI'S
GAFF. SEE REF B). GOCHE, WHO OVERSEES THE CIO FROM THE
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE, ASSURED THE AMBASSADOR THAT
TSVANGIRAI WOULD NOT BE ARRESTED SO LONG AS THE MDC DOES

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NOT FOLLOW THROUGH ON HIS REMARKS AND INCITE VIOLENT
ACTION AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. GOCHE CHARACTERIZED THE
REMARKS AS A POLITICAL STATEMENT, TO WHICH THE GOZ
RESPONDED WITH ITS OWN POLITICAL STATEMENT SAYING IT MAY
ARREST AND PROSECUTE TSVANGIRAI. GOCHE DESCRIBED THE
EXCHANGE AS POLITICAL POSTURING THAT WOULD PROBABLY NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. THE AMBASSADOR INFORMED GOCHE THAT WE
HAVE URGED TSVANGIRAI AND HIS TEAM TO EXERCISE
RESTRAINT.


3. (C) MORE OMINOUSLY, HOWEVER, GOCHE WENT ON TO SAY
THAT HE BELIEVES THE MDC IS A VIOLENT PARTY THAT IMPORTS
WEAPONS AND HAS NEFARIOUS PLANS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT.
GOCHE CITED THE SEPTEMBER 14-15 RAID ON THE MDC
HEADQUARTERS. THE AMBASSADOR INTERJECTED, SAYING THAT
THE MDC IS MORE ASTUTE THAN THAT AND SURELY REALIZES
THAT IF IT WAS CAUGHT IMPORTING WEAPONS, IT WOULD INVITE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 05629 01 OF 03 041739Z
A MORE EXTENSIVE CRACKDOWN ON ITS ACTIVITIES.
AMBASSADOR EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS IMPORTANT FOR BOTH
SIDES TO USE MEASURED RESPONSES AND NOT TO BLOW THINGS
OUT OF PROPORTION.

--------------
DROC SITUATION
--------------


4. (C) IN THE GENERAL MEETING WITH R/P OFFICER AND
POLOFF (NOTETAKER), AMBASSADOR ASKED GOCHE FOR AN
APPRAISAL OF THE DROC SITUATION (GOCHE WAS IN THE REF B
MEETINGS BETWEEN KABILA AND MUGABE). THE MINISTER SAID
MONUC WAS STILL DEPLOYING DESPITE THE BUREAUCRATIC
DIFFICULTIES IT HAS ENCOUNTERED, AND IT WOULD BE IN
MBANDAKA SOON. HE EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE RENEWED
FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE, AND SAID ZIMBABWE HAS
WARNED MLC LEADER BEMBA TO STOP HIS ADVANCE ON MBANDAKA.
NONETHELESS, ZIMBABWE REMAINS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH
BEMBA AND HAS A GOOD RAPPORT WITH HIM, ACCORDING TO
GOCHE. BEMBA IS NOT A "CHESS PLAYER" (I.E., NOT A
SCHEMER) AND CAN BE TRUSTED WHEN HE SAYS THAT HE WILL
STOP FIGHTING ONCE KABILA STOPS FIGHTING.

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CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9111

PAGE 01 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 MFA-01 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /011W
-------------- 8D9F3E 041748Z /38
O 041715Z OCT 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7279
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 005629

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC
LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z
WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC

KABILA IN MORE CONCILIATORY MOOD
--------------


5. (C) IN HIS MEETINGS WITH KABILA, MUGABE AGAIN
PRESSED KABILA HARD ON THE IMPORTANCE OF OBSERVING THE
LUSAKA CEASE-FIRE. WHEN ASKED IF MUGABE WAS BECOMING
ANGRY WITH KABILA'S RECALCITRANCE, GOCHE STATED THAT
MUGABE DOES NOT SHOW ANGER WITH KABILA, BUT DOES SPEAK
TO HIM IN STRONG TERMS. THE MINISTER BELIEVED THAT
KABILA GOT THE MESSAGE TO ABIDE BY LUSAKA. HE OBSERVED
THAT KABILA APPEARED MORE RELAXED AND FORTHCOMING WITH
MUGABE THAN IN PREVIOUS MEETINGS, AND THAT KABILA WAS
COMING UP WITH NEW SUGGESTIONS ON THE WAY FORWARD,
SOMETHING HE WAS NOT PRONE TO DO IN THE PAST. GOCHE
SAID KABILA EVEN SHOWED SIGNS OF COMPROMISE ON THE
STATUS OF FORMER BOTSWANA PRESIDENT MASIRE AS
FACILITATOR, BUT THAT THIS WAS DISCUSSED PRIVATELY
BETWEEN KABILA AND MUGABE. GOCHE DID SAY THAT KABILA
WAS OPPOSED TO THE PRESENCE OF A MR. WINTER, A BRITISH
NATIONAL, AS MASIRE'S ASSISTANT FACILITATOR. KABILA
WANTS A FRENCH-SPEAKING AFRICAN IN THAT POSITION,
ACCORDING TO THE MINISTER.

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MBEKI EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES MEETING
--------------


6. (C) SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT MBEKI'S PROPOSED MEETING
BETWEEN THE LUSAKA EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES IS DUE TO BE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z
HELD "SOON," GOCHE STATED, BUT NO FIRM DATE HAS BEEN SET
(SEE REF C). MBEKI HAD ORIGINALLY PLANNED THE MEETING
FOR THE SEPTEMBER 30 WEEKEND, BUT MUGABE OBJECTED TO THE
SHORT NOTICE AND ASKED THAT IT BE SCHEDULED A LITTLE
LATER. THE PURPOSE OF THE CONFERENCE, WHICH IS TO
INCLUDE KABILA, IS TO REVIEW THE DROC CONFLICT, ENSURE
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA, PUSH KABILA TO UNDERTAKE
THE INTERNAL DIALOGUE PROCESS, AND TELL HIM THAT HE
CANNOT BE A "PERPETUAL OBSTACLE" TO PEACE IN THE DROC.
GOCHE ADDED THAT ZIMBABWE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE "PERSON"
OF KABILA NECESSARILY, BUT THAT IT DOES SUPPORT THE
"SOVEREIGNTY OF THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE." IF KABILA HELD
ELECTIONS AND WAS ELECTED, ZIMBABWE WOULD SUPPORT HIM
PERSONALLY IN THAT CASE.

--------------
NO DETAILS ON EARLY WITHDRAWAL
--------------


7. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF
ZIMBABWEAN FORCES FROM THE DROC, GOCHE WAS COY AND NON-
COMMITTAL. EVEN THOUGH HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT PLANS WERE
ALREADY FORMULATED, HE WOULD NOT SAY IT WOULD HAPPEN
BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. GOCHE WAS RELUCTANT TO GO
INTO FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT A WITHDRAWAL, BUT SAID IT WAS
NOT CONTINGENT UPON MONUC DEPLOYMENT. AMBASSADOR ASKED
GOCHE IF ZIMBABWE WOULD WITHDRAW IF THERE WAS NOT A FULL
MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN DROC, AND HE SAID HE DID NOT KNOW.


8. (C) COMMENT: WE ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED BY GOCHE'S
STATEMENT THAT THE GOZ DOES NOT INTEND TO ARREST
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PAGE 04 HARARE 05629 02 OF 03 041739Z
TSVANGIRAI AND WE SHARE HIS ASSESSMENT THAT THE BACK-

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AND-FORTH BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF THIS WEEK OVER THE
ISSUE IS MORE ABOUT POLITICAL POSTURING THAN ANYTHING
ELSE. THEY DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TSVANGIRAI A MARTYR.
TSVANGIRAI'S OVERBLOWN STATEMENT WAS LIKELY DONE IN THE

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HEAT OF THE MOMENT, BUT NEITHER SIDE SEEMS EAGER FOR A
FIGHT IN THE CURRENT TENSE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. OF
MORE CONCERN IS AN MDC ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE MASS STAY-
AWAYS OR A GENERAL STRIKE. IAN HAY-CAMPBELL, THE
BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER HERE, TOLD US THAT THE
MDC LEADERSHIP HAS DECIDED TO POSTPONE INDEFINITELY ANY
MASS ACTION IN LIGHT OF TSVANGIRAI'S WEEKEND STATEMENT.


9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: REGARDING GOCHE'S STATEMENTS
ON THE DROC, WE ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO HEAR THAT KABILA
SEEMS TO BE IN A MORE FLEXIBLE MOOD. THE ATTENTION AND
STRAIGHT TALK CONVEYED TO HIM BY HIS ALLIES IN THE LAST
WEEK HAS PROBABLY HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GOZ
ABOUT THE TIMING AND MANNER OF A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF
ZIMBABWEAN FORCES FROM THE DROC. OUR INTERLOCUTORS SAY
THAT IT IS NOT CONTINGENT UPON A MONUC DEPLOYMENT, BUT
IN REALITY, IT PROBABLY IS. MUGABE HAS BEEN LOOKING FOR
A FACE-SAVING WAY TO PULL OUT ALMOST SINCE HE WENT IN,
AND THE FULL MONUC DEPLOYMENT WILL GIVE HIM THAT.

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9110

PAGE 01 HARARE 05629 03 OF 03 041739Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 MFA-01 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-00
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /011W
-------------- 8D9F3A 041748Z /38
O 041715Z OCT 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7280
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 005629

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY SAYS MDC
LEADER WILL NOT BE ARRESTED; NON-COMMITTAL ON DATE FOR
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 05629 03 OF 03 041739Z
WITHDRAWAL FROM DROC

MUGABE IS IN A RACE TO CONVINCE KABILA TO COOPERATE WITH
THE U.N. BEFORE THE FINANCIAL DRAIN AND POLITICAL
OPPOSITION ARISING FROM THE DROC DEPLOYMENT FURTHER
UNDERMINE HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION. END COMMENT.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

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