C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 005579

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ZI CG
SUBJECT: MNANGAGWA ON KABILA'S VISIT TO HARARE

REFS: A) HARARE 5464, B) HARARE 5137
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CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: AMBASSADOR MCDONALD VISITED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT
AND DROC INTERLOCUTOR EMMERSON MNANGAGWA SEPTEMBER 29 TO TRY TO GET
A READOUT OF KABILA'S BRIEF HARARE VISIT THE PREVIOUS DAY. ALTHOUGH
MNANGAGWA DID NOT SIT IN ON KABILA'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE
(HE IS TRYING TO "PHASE OUT" HIS OFFICIAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE DROC),
HE LATER SPOKE BY PHONE TO KABILA, AND THE GOVERNOR OF KATANGA, WHO
ACCOMPANIED THE CONGOLESE PRESIDENT. MNANGAGWA ASSERTED THAT KABILA
INTENDED TO ENSURE THAT HE AND HIS PRINCIPAL ALLY STAY ON TRACK VIS-
A-VIS LUSAKA AND AVOID ANY "DRIFT" IN THEIR RELATIONSHIP. WE WILL
DIG DEEPER WITH OTHER INTERLOCUTORS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO
DETERMINE WHETHER KABILA SUCCEEDED IN THAT OBJECTIVE. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) AMBASSADOR AND POLOFF CALLED ON SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT AND DROC
INTERLOCUTOR EMMERSON MNANGAGWA SEPTEMBER 29 TO OBTAIN A READOUT
OF KABILA'S VISIT WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE THE PREVIOUS DAY. ONCE AGAIN,
MNANGAGWA COYLY STATED THAT HE WAS NO LONGER "OFFICIALLY" INVOLVED
IN DROC MATTERS. THE SPEAKER DID SAY THAT HE SPOKE TO KABILA BY PHONE
AFTER THE MEETING, AND THAT FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE, GENERAL
ZVINAVASHE, COMMANDER OF THE ZIMBABWE DEFENSE FORCE, AND THE
GOVERNOR OF KATANGA PARTICIPATED IN THE MEETING. KABILA CAME TO
HARARE AT THE INVITATION OF PRESIDENT MUGABE TO KEEP LUSAKA ON TRACK
AND ENSURE THERE WAS NO "DRIFT" IN THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP,
ACCORDING TO MNANGAGWA. THE SPEAKER ALSO SPOKE AT LENGTH BY PHONE
WITH THE KATANGAN GOVERNOR, BUT WOULD NOT DIVULGE THE SUBJECT OF
THAT CONVERSATION.


3. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT ZIMBABWE'S APPARENT PLANS TO PARTIALLY
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE DROC (REF A), MNANGAGWA SAID THE PLANS FOR
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WITHDRAWAL ARE COMPLETE AND HAVE BEEN FOR A WHILE. GENERAL
ZVINAVASHE WAS DUE TO BRIEF HIM LATER IN THE DAY ON THE KABILA MEETING
AND WITHDRAWAL PLANS. MNANGAGWA DID SAY THAT THE NUMBER OF
ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS IN DROC IS ALREADY FEWER THAN THE 11,000 FIGURE
COMMONLY QUOTED IN THE MEDIA, BUT DID NOT PROVIDE HIS OWN FIGURE.


4. (C) MNANGAGWA REVEALED THAT HE IS GOING TO LUBUMBASHI WITH
PRESIDENT MUGABE ON OCTOBER 2 TO OPEN THE NEW FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF
CONGO, WHICH HAS GIVEN A FIVE-YEAR MANAGEMENT CONTRACT TO THE FIRST
BANKING CORPORATION OF ZIMBABWE. THE NEW CONGOLESE BANK WILL BE
CHAIRED BY MNANGAGWA AND MANAGED BY JOHN MUSHAWARA, A ZIMBABWEAN
NATIONAL. THE ZIMBABWEAN MANAGEMENT COMPANY WILL TRAIN ENGLISH-
AND FRENCH-SPEAKING CONGOLESE STAFF AND MANAGERS, AND THE BANK WILL
HELP FACILITATE TRADE BETWEEN ZIMBABWE AND THE DROC. MNANGAGWA
ADDED THAT HE HAD NOT YET BEEN TO THE DROC THIS MONTH; AS REPORTED REF
B, HE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT HE WOULD BE TRAVELING THERE A FEW WEEKS AGO.


5. (C) COMMENT: THE TIGHT-LIPPED MNANGAGWA IS CLEARLY
TRYING TO GIVE US THE IMPRESSION HE IS NO LONGER DEEPLY
INVOLVED IN THE DROC, BUT HIS ONGOING AND EVER-GROWING
FINANCIAL INTERESTS THERE BELIE THAT CLAIM. ALTHOUGH HE
MAY NOT PARTICIPATE IN ALL THE HIGH-LEVEL DROC MEETINGS
HE USED TO, HE STILL HAS A PARAMOUNT INTEREST IN
MAINTAINING HIS OLD CONTACTS. HIS CONVERSATION WITH THE
KATANGAN GOVERNOR COULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE EXTENSIVE
MINING CONCESSIONS MNANGAGWA HAS A STAKE IN THERE, OR IT
COULD HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH A PARTIAL TROOP
WITHDRAWAL, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF HIS PENDING BRIEFING
WITH ZVINAVASHE (MOST OF ZIMBABWE'S TROOPS ARE IN
KATANGA). WE WILL DIG DEEPER WITH OTHER INTERLOCUTORS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO DETERMINE WHETHER KABILA'S
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VISIT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALLAYING ZIMBABWE'S
FRUSTRATION WITH ITS RECALCITRANT ALLY, AND ITS EVENTUAL
WITHDRAWAL. END COMMENT.

MCDONALD

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