FORMER ARMY COMMANDER REPORTEDLY APPROACHES MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005346

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/10
TAGS: PINS PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT: FORMER ARMY COMMANDER REPORTEDLY APPROACHES MDC
SECRETLY WITH AMNESTY DEAL PROPOSAL


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PAGE 02 HARARE 05346 01 OF 02 211600Z
CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND
(D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) SOLOMON MUJURU, RETIRED COMMANDER OF THE ARMY,
RECENTLY SENT AN EMISSARY TO THE MDC, WITHOUT PRESIDENT
MUGABE'S KNOWLEDGE, ACCORDING TO A SENIOR MDC OFFICIAL.
THE EMISSARY INFORMED THE MDC OF THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO
PROVOKE VIOLENT CONFRONTATIONS NATIONWIDE AS A PRETEXT FOR
CRACKING DOWN ON THE OPPOSITION PARTY AND ITS SUPPORTERS.
TO AVOID THIS BLOODY SCENARIO, MUJURU URGED THE MDC TO
AGREE TO A COMPLETE AMNESTY FOR CURRENT AND PAST GOZ
OFFICIALS AND ZANU-PF LEADERS. IN EXCHANGE, THE GOZ WOULD
DISCUSS FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH THE OPPOSITION.
IF GENUINE, MUJURU'S OFFER COULD BE A SIGN OF INCREASING
DESPERATION AMONG ZANU-PF STALWARTS, WHO SEE THEIR LOSS OF
POWER AS INEVITABLE AND WANT TO ENSURE THEIR IMMUNITY FROM
PROSECUTION FOR PAST MISDEEDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT COULD
BE A TRAP INTENDED TO IMPLICATE THE MDC IN A PLOT TO
OVERTHROW MUGABE, AND JUSTIFY INTENSIFICATION OF THE
CRACKDOWN ON THE MDC. THE MDC IS PROCEEDING CAUTIOUSLY AND
HAS NOT DECIDED HOW TO RESPOND. END SUMMARY.

PRETEXT FOR A CRACK-DOWN
--------------


2. (C) IN A SEPTEMBER 21 CALL ON DCM AND POLOFF, SENIOR
MDC ADVISOR CLIVE PUZEY SAID THE MDC WAS RECENTLY
APPROACHED BY AN EMISSARY FROM SOLOMON MUJURU, RETIRED
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COMMANDER OF THE ARMY, WHO RETAINS SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE
OVER THE CURRENT ARMY COMMANDER, GENERAL VITALIS
ZVINAVASHE, WHOM HE INSTALLED IN HIS CURRENT POSITION, AND
THE ARMED FORCES. THE EMISSARY, GOODSON NGUNI (STRICTLY
PROTECT),IS A DISTANT RELATIVE OF A MEMBER OF PRESIDENT
MUGABE'S FAMILY, WHO HAS BEEN A RELIABLE SOURCE OF
INFORMATION FOR THE MDC ON THE THINKING OF SENIOR GOZ
LEADERS, ACCORDING TO PUZEY. NGUNI, THE MDC OFFICIAL SAID,
HAD APPROACHED THE MDC IN THIS CASE WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE
OF PRESIDENT MUGABE. (COMMENT: POST HAS NO INFORMATION IN
ITS FILES CONCERNING NGUNI. END COMMENT.)


3. (C) NGUNI REPORTED ON THE GOZ'S PLAN, NOW UNDERWAY, TO
PROVOKE A GENERAL UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE THROUGHOUT ZIMBABWE
IN ORDER TO HAVE A PRETEXT TO CRACK DOWN ON THE MDC AND ITS
SUPPORTERS. ACCORDING TO NGUNI, ONE BRIGADIER RUWODO (AS
SPELLED BY PUZEY),WHO WAS BROUGHT OUT OF RETIREMENT TO
MASTERMIND THE LAND OCCUPATIONS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE
PRIOR TO THE JUNE ELECTIONS, HAS BEEN SUMMONED AGAIN BY
PRESIDENT MUGABE TO CONDUCT A SIMILAR CAMPAIGN OF TERROR.
(COMMENT: POST IS NOT FAMILIAR WITH A BRIGADIER RUWODO.
THE NAME THAT COMES THE CLOSEST IN OUR FILES IS THAT OF
RETIRED BRIGADIER RICHARD RUWONDO, WHOSE LAST KNOWN
POSITION WAS DEPUTY CHIEF OF FINANCE OF THE ARMY. A BANKER
BY TRAINING, RUWONDO IS UNLIKELY TO BE MIXED UP IN THIS
ENTERPRISE. END COMMENT.) NGUNI SAID 160 CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) OPERATIVES HAD ALREADY BEEN
SENT TO KEY POINTS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY TO CARRY OUT THIS
PLAN. WHEN PEOPLE POURED INTO THE STREETS IN PROTEST, THE
ARMY WOULD SHOOT WHOMEVER IT HAD TO SHOOT, PUZEY QUOTED
NGUNI AS SAYING.
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AMNESTY DEAL
--------------


4. (C) THERE WAS A WAY TO AVOID SUCH A BLOODY SCENARIO,
NGUNI CONTINUED. SENIOR ZANU-PF LEADERS GREATLY FEARED
LOSING POWER, AS THEY HAD DONE MUCH WORSE THINGS THAN MOST
OBSERVERS SUSPECTED, AND WERE NOT WILLING TO SPEND TIME IN
PRISON. IF THE MDC WERE WILLING TO AGREE TO A COMPLETE
AMNESTY AND TO DROP ITS PROPOSAL FOR A TRUTH AND
RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE, ZANU-PF WOULD BE PREPARED TO
DISCUSS FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH THE MDC, AND
PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD BE CONVINCED TO RETIRE.


5. (C) ACCORDING TO PUZEY, THE MDC EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
DISCUSSED NGUNI'S PROPOSAL ON SEPTEMBER 20 BUT DID NOT
REACH ANY CONCLUSIONS. SOME FELT THAT AGREEING TO THE
AMNESTY WAS PREFERABLE TO ALLOWING ZANU-PF TO DESTROY THE
COUNTRY. OTHERS WITHIN THE MDC, HOWEVER, ARE NOT
INTERESTED IN COMPROMISE AND ARE DETERMINED TO BRING TO
JUSTICE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE
GOVERNMENT. YET A THIRD CURRENT, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE
NDEBELE, A BULWARK OF MDC SUPPORT, BELIEVES AMNESTY MAY BE
GRANTED TO ANYONE BUT MUGABE. ASKED WHETHER HE WAS
CONFIDENT THAT MUJURU COULD DELIVER ON THE PROPOSED DEAL,

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00
/009W
-------------- 882684 211600Z /38
O 211601Z SEP 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7166
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005346

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/10
TAGS: PINS PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT: FORMER ARMY COMMANDER REPORTEDLY APPROACHES MDC
SECRETLY WITH AMNESTY DEAL PROPOSAL

SIPDIS

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PAGE 02 HARARE 05346 02 OF 02 211600Z
PUZEY SAID NO. IF MUJURU WERE SERIOUS ABOUT THE PROPOSAL,
THOUGH, PUZEY COULD ARRANGE A MEETING WITH MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI.

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STRONGER MDC TIES TO PRETORIA
--------------


6. (C) PUZEY REPORTED THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD RETURNED THE
PREVIOUS WEEK FROM A THREE-DAY VISIT TO SOUTH AFRICA ELATED
ABOUT HAVING MADE SERIOUS INROADS WITH THE PRETORIA
GOVERNMENT. THE MDC PRESIDENT SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF TIME WITH FM ZUMA AND FINANCE MINISTER ERWIN, AS WELL AS
OTHER KEY CABINET MINISTERS TO WHOM TSVANGIRAI PREVIOUSLY
HAD HAD LITTLE ACCESS. TSVANGIRAI, PUZEY SAID, HELD LONG
DISCUSSIONS WITH NELSON MANDELA, WHO UNDERTOOK TO SPEAK TO
SOUTH AFRICAN OFFICIALS AND LIBYAN PRESIDENT QADHAFI ABOUT
BRINGING MORE PRESSURE TO BEAR ON PRESIDENT MUGABE.
ACCORDING TO PUZEY, MANDELA ALSO OFFERED TO ARRANGE A
MEETING FOR TSVANGIRAI WITH KOFI ANNAN.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) WE FIND EXTREMELY CREDIBLE -- AND TROUBLING --
NGUNI'S WARNING THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING TO PROVOKE
VIOLENT CONFRONTATIONS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AS A PRETEXT
TO CRACK DOWN. THE GOZ (ZANU-PF) UNLEASED A CAMPAIGN OF
TERROR PRIOR TO THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND IS QUITE
CAPABLE OF DOING SO AGAIN. PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS
CRONIES ARE WAKING UP TO THE FACT THAT THEIR 20-YEAR HOLD
ON GOVERNMENT IS INCREASINGLY THREATENED AS THE ECONOMY
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CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AND THE MDC GAINS STRENGTH, AND
THEY WILL USE WHATEVER TACTICS NECESSARY TO STAY IN POWER.


8. (C) WE ARE UNSURE, HOWEVER, WHAT TO MAKE OF MUJURU'S
BACK CHANNEL OFFER TO THE MDC. ON ONE HAND, IT COULD BE A
SIGN THAT SENIOR ZANU-PF OFFICIALS REALIZE THAT IT IS ONLY
A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL THE PARTY LOSES ITS MONOPOLY ON
POWER, AND ARE ANXIOUS TO STRIKE A DEAL PROTECTING THEM
FROM PUNISHMENT FOR THEIR MISDEEDS. MUJURU'S PROPOSAL OF
AN AMNESTY OFFER IN EXCHANGE FOR NOT ORCHESTRATING FURTHER
VIOLENCE AND HARASSMENT SMACKS OF BLACKMAIL, BUT COULD
REFLECT INCREASING DESPERATION ON THE PART OF SENIOR ZANU-
PF STALWARTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT COULD BE A TRAP
DESIGNED TO IMPLICATE THE MDC IN A PLOT TO OVERTHROW
MUGABE, THUS JUSTIFYING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE GOZ
CRACKDOWN ON THE OPPOSITION. THE QUESTIONABLE COMPONENT IN
MUJURU'S AMNESTY PROPOSAL IS MUGABE'S EXIT. EVEN IF
MUJURU'S OFFER WERE GENUINE AND THE MDC DECIDED TO MAKE THE
DEAL, IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW MUJURU PLANS TO CONVINCE
MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, ALTHOUGH THE RETIRED GENERAL'S
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE ARMED FORCES WOULD PROVIDE
POWERFUL LEVERAGE.

MCDONALD

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