FORMER ARMY COMMANDER REPORTEDLY APPROACHES MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005346 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/10 TAGS: PINS PGOV PHUM ZI MDC SUBJECT: FORMER ARMY COMMANDER REPORTEDLY APPROACHES MDC SECRETLY WITH AMNESTY DEAL PROPOSAL SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05346 01 OF 02 211600Z CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) SOLOMON MUJURU, RETIRED COMMANDER OF THE ARMY, RECENTLY SENT AN EMISSARY TO THE MDC, WITHOUT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S KNOWLEDGE, ACCORDING TO A SENIOR MDC OFFICIAL. THE EMISSARY INFORMED THE MDC OF THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO PROVOKE VIOLENT CONFRONTATIONS NATIONWIDE AS A PRETEXT FOR CRACKING DOWN ON THE OPPOSITION PARTY AND ITS SUPPORTERS. TO AVOID THIS BLOODY SCENARIO, MUJURU URGED THE MDC TO AGREE TO A COMPLETE AMNESTY FOR CURRENT AND PAST GOZ OFFICIALS AND ZANU-PF LEADERS. IN EXCHANGE, THE GOZ WOULD DISCUSS FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH THE OPPOSITION. IF GENUINE, MUJURU'S OFFER COULD BE A SIGN OF INCREASING DESPERATION AMONG ZANU-PF STALWARTS, WHO SEE THEIR LOSS OF POWER AS INEVITABLE AND WANT TO ENSURE THEIR IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION FOR PAST MISDEEDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT COULD BE A TRAP INTENDED TO IMPLICATE THE MDC IN A PLOT TO OVERTHROW MUGABE, AND JUSTIFY INTENSIFICATION OF THE CRACKDOWN ON THE MDC. THE MDC IS PROCEEDING CAUTIOUSLY AND HAS NOT DECIDED HOW TO RESPOND. END SUMMARY. PRETEXT FOR A CRACK-DOWN -------------- ¶2. (C) IN A SEPTEMBER 21 CALL ON DCM AND POLOFF, SENIOR MDC ADVISOR CLIVE PUZEY SAID THE MDC WAS RECENTLY APPROACHED BY AN EMISSARY FROM SOLOMON MUJURU, RETIRED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05346 01 OF 02 211600Z COMMANDER OF THE ARMY, WHO RETAINS SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE CURRENT ARMY COMMANDER, GENERAL VITALIS ZVINAVASHE, WHOM HE INSTALLED IN HIS CURRENT POSITION, AND THE ARMED FORCES. THE EMISSARY, GOODSON NGUNI (STRICTLY PROTECT),IS A DISTANT RELATIVE OF A MEMBER OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S FAMILY, WHO HAS BEEN A RELIABLE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE MDC ON THE THINKING OF SENIOR GOZ LEADERS, ACCORDING TO PUZEY. NGUNI, THE MDC OFFICIAL SAID, HAD APPROACHED THE MDC IN THIS CASE WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE OF PRESIDENT MUGABE. (COMMENT: POST HAS NO INFORMATION IN ITS FILES CONCERNING NGUNI. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (C) NGUNI REPORTED ON THE GOZ'S PLAN, NOW UNDERWAY, TO PROVOKE A GENERAL UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE THROUGHOUT ZIMBABWE IN ORDER TO HAVE A PRETEXT TO CRACK DOWN ON THE MDC AND ITS SUPPORTERS. ACCORDING TO NGUNI, ONE BRIGADIER RUWODO (AS SPELLED BY PUZEY),WHO WAS BROUGHT OUT OF RETIREMENT TO MASTERMIND THE LAND OCCUPATIONS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE PRIOR TO THE JUNE ELECTIONS, HAS BEEN SUMMONED AGAIN BY PRESIDENT MUGABE TO CONDUCT A SIMILAR CAMPAIGN OF TERROR. (COMMENT: POST IS NOT FAMILIAR WITH A BRIGADIER RUWODO. THE NAME THAT COMES THE CLOSEST IN OUR FILES IS THAT OF RETIRED BRIGADIER RICHARD RUWONDO, WHOSE LAST KNOWN POSITION WAS DEPUTY CHIEF OF FINANCE OF THE ARMY. A BANKER BY TRAINING, RUWONDO IS UNLIKELY TO BE MIXED UP IN THIS ENTERPRISE. END COMMENT.) NGUNI SAID 160 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) OPERATIVES HAD ALREADY BEEN SENT TO KEY POINTS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY TO CARRY OUT THIS PLAN. WHEN PEOPLE POURED INTO THE STREETS IN PROTEST, THE ARMY WOULD SHOOT WHOMEVER IT HAD TO SHOOT, PUZEY QUOTED NGUNI AS SAYING. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 05346 01 OF 02 211600Z AMNESTY DEAL -------------- ¶4. (C) THERE WAS A WAY TO AVOID SUCH A BLOODY SCENARIO, NGUNI CONTINUED. SENIOR ZANU-PF LEADERS GREATLY FEARED LOSING POWER, AS THEY HAD DONE MUCH WORSE THINGS THAN MOST OBSERVERS SUSPECTED, AND WERE NOT WILLING TO SPEND TIME IN PRISON. IF THE MDC WERE WILLING TO AGREE TO A COMPLETE AMNESTY AND TO DROP ITS PROPOSAL FOR A TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE, ZANU-PF WOULD BE PREPARED TO DISCUSS FORMING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH THE MDC, AND PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD BE CONVINCED TO RETIRE. ¶5. (C) ACCORDING TO PUZEY, THE MDC EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE DISCUSSED NGUNI'S PROPOSAL ON SEPTEMBER 20 BUT DID NOT REACH ANY CONCLUSIONS. SOME FELT THAT AGREEING TO THE AMNESTY WAS PREFERABLE TO ALLOWING ZANU-PF TO DESTROY THE COUNTRY. OTHERS WITHIN THE MDC, HOWEVER, ARE NOT INTERESTED IN COMPROMISE AND ARE DETERMINED TO BRING TO JUSTICE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT. YET A THIRD CURRENT, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE NDEBELE, A BULWARK OF MDC SUPPORT, BELIEVES AMNESTY MAY BE GRANTED TO ANYONE BUT MUGABE. ASKED WHETHER HE WAS CONFIDENT THAT MUJURU COULD DELIVER ON THE PROPOSED DEAL, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2370 PAGE 01 HARARE 05346 02 OF 02 211600Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /009W -------------- 882684 211600Z /38 O 211601Z SEP 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7166 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005346 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/10 TAGS: PINS PGOV PHUM ZI MDC SUBJECT: FORMER ARMY COMMANDER REPORTEDLY APPROACHES MDC SECRETLY WITH AMNESTY DEAL PROPOSAL SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 05346 02 OF 02 211600Z PUZEY SAID NO. IF MUJURU WERE SERIOUS ABOUT THE PROPOSAL, THOUGH, PUZEY COULD ARRANGE A MEETING WITH MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. SIPDIS STRONGER MDC TIES TO PRETORIA -------------- ¶6. (C) PUZEY REPORTED THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD RETURNED THE PREVIOUS WEEK FROM A THREE-DAY VISIT TO SOUTH AFRICA ELATED ABOUT HAVING MADE SERIOUS INROADS WITH THE PRETORIA GOVERNMENT. THE MDC PRESIDENT SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WITH FM ZUMA AND FINANCE MINISTER ERWIN, AS WELL AS OTHER KEY CABINET MINISTERS TO WHOM TSVANGIRAI PREVIOUSLY HAD HAD LITTLE ACCESS. TSVANGIRAI, PUZEY SAID, HELD LONG DISCUSSIONS WITH NELSON MANDELA, WHO UNDERTOOK TO SPEAK TO SOUTH AFRICAN OFFICIALS AND LIBYAN PRESIDENT QADHAFI ABOUT BRINGING MORE PRESSURE TO BEAR ON PRESIDENT MUGABE. ACCORDING TO PUZEY, MANDELA ALSO OFFERED TO ARRANGE A MEETING FOR TSVANGIRAI WITH KOFI ANNAN. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) WE FIND EXTREMELY CREDIBLE -- AND TROUBLING -- NGUNI'S WARNING THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING TO PROVOKE VIOLENT CONFRONTATIONS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AS A PRETEXT TO CRACK DOWN. THE GOZ (ZANU-PF) UNLEASED A CAMPAIGN OF TERROR PRIOR TO THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND IS QUITE CAPABLE OF DOING SO AGAIN. PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES ARE WAKING UP TO THE FACT THAT THEIR 20-YEAR HOLD ON GOVERNMENT IS INCREASINGLY THREATENED AS THE ECONOMY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 05346 02 OF 02 211600Z CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AND THE MDC GAINS STRENGTH, AND THEY WILL USE WHATEVER TACTICS NECESSARY TO STAY IN POWER. ¶8. (C) WE ARE UNSURE, HOWEVER, WHAT TO MAKE OF MUJURU'S BACK CHANNEL OFFER TO THE MDC. ON ONE HAND, IT COULD BE A SIGN THAT SENIOR ZANU-PF OFFICIALS REALIZE THAT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL THE PARTY LOSES ITS MONOPOLY ON POWER, AND ARE ANXIOUS TO STRIKE A DEAL PROTECTING THEM FROM PUNISHMENT FOR THEIR MISDEEDS. MUJURU'S PROPOSAL OF AN AMNESTY OFFER IN EXCHANGE FOR NOT ORCHESTRATING FURTHER VIOLENCE AND HARASSMENT SMACKS OF BLACKMAIL, BUT COULD REFLECT INCREASING DESPERATION ON THE PART OF SENIOR ZANU- PF STALWARTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT COULD BE A TRAP DESIGNED TO IMPLICATE THE MDC IN A PLOT TO OVERTHROW MUGABE, THUS JUSTIFYING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE GOZ CRACKDOWN ON THE OPPOSITION. THE QUESTIONABLE COMPONENT IN MUJURU'S AMNESTY PROPOSAL IS MUGABE'S EXIT. EVEN IF MUJURU'S OFFER WERE GENUINE AND THE MDC DECIDED TO MAKE THE DEAL, IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW MUJURU PLANS TO CONVINCE MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, ALTHOUGH THE RETIRED GENERAL'S SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE ARMED FORCES WOULD PROVIDE POWERFUL LEVERAGE. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >