C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004750

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, GRACE SONE, AND HOFFMAN BARAK
USDOC FOR 2037/ERIC HENDERSON
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 04750 01 OF 03 251458Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/05
TAGS: PREL PINR ECON EFIN PINR PHUM ZI EAGR
SUBJECT: VP MSIKA: BLAMES OTHERS FOR VIOLENCE AND
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, BUT SOME ENCOURAGING WORDS ON LAND

REF: A) HARARE 4695 B) STATE 144224

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND
(D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) AT THE DEPARTMENT'S INSTRUCTION, AMBASSADOR
EXPRESSED STRONG U.S. CONCERNS ABOUT THE FARM OCCUPATIONS
AND CONTINUING RURAL VIOLENCE TO VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA ON
AUGUST 25. MSIKA BLAMED COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND THE
OPPOSITION MDC FOR INCITING MUCH OF THE PRE-ELECTION
VIOLENCE AND INSISTED THAT, IN OCCUPYING FARMS, MOST WAR
VETERANS HAD MERELY ENGAGED IN TRESPASSING, WHICH WAS NOT
A SERIOUS CRIME. THE CABINET HAD AGREED THAT NO NEW FARM
OCCUPATIONS WOULD BE PERMITTED, AND THAT WAR VETERANS
SHOULD BE MOVED TO FARMS IDENTIFIED FOR COMPULSORY
ACQUISITION. HE ACKNOWLEDGED, HOWEVER, THAT PRESIDENT
MUGABE WAS NOT IN AGREEMENT THAT VETERANS SHOULD BE
REMOVED FROM CURRENTLY-OCCUPIED FARMS ON AN EXPEDITED
BASIS. MSIKA SAID ZIMBABWE BORE ONLY SOME OF THE
RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND SAID THE
GOVERNMENT'S MILLENIUM ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN OUGHT TO
GET THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK. IN THE MEANTIME, THE GOZ
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PAGE 03 HARARE 04750 01 OF 03 251458Z
HAD DEVALUED THE CURRENCY AND WAS PLANNING TO REDUCE THE
SIZE OF THE CIVIL SERVICE AND CUT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
ACROSS THE BOARD TO IMPROVE ITS ECONOMIC CONDITION. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
U.S. CONCERNS
--------------


2. (C) AMBASSADOR, ACCOMPANIED BY USAID DIRECTOR AND

POLOFF, CALLED ON VICE-PRESIDENT MSIKA AUGUST 25 TO
DELIVER REF B DEMARCHE ON CONTINUING VIOLENCE AND THE
GOVERNMENT'S LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AS PRESIDENT
MUGABE WAS UNAVAILABLE. AFTER PROVIDING MSIKA WITH A
NON-PAPER CONTAINING REFTEL TALKING POINTS, THE
AMBASSADOR UNDERSCORED CONTINUING U.S. CONCERN OVER
VIOLENCE AND FARM OCCUPATIONS, WHICH HAD DAMAGED
ZIMBABWE'S STANDING IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. HE
DESCRIBED THE EVICTIONS OF WAR VETERANS FROM SEVERAL
FARMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK (REF A) AS A POSITIVE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT NOTED THAT VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION
WERE CONTINUING IN MANY AREAS. THE UNITED STATES
RECOGNIZED THE NEED FOR LAND REFORM IN ZIMBABWE AND
WANTED TO BE HELPFUL, BUT COULD NOT UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

--------------
PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE
--------------


3. (C) THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE, MSIKA CLAIMED, WAS NOT
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PAGE 04 HARARE 04750 01 OF 03 251458Z
MOSTLY OF THE GOVERNMENT'S MAKING. HE LAID MUCH OF THE
BLAME ON COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHOM HE SAID HAD RENEGED ON
THEIR COMMITMENTS AT THE SEPTEMBER 1998 DONORS CONFERENCE
ON LAND REFORM, AND SUBSEQUENTLY FORMED MILITIAS TO BLOCK
THE GOVERNMENT'S RESETTLEMENT EFFORT. HE ALSO BLAMED THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC), WHICH HE
SAID WAS LAUNCHED NOT FROM ZIMBABWE BUT BY "OUTSIDE
FORCES."


4. (C) THE VICE PRESIDENT INSISTED THAT THE FARM
OCCUPATIONS PRIOR TO THE ELECTIONS HAD BEEN MOTIVATED NOT
BY POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS BUT BY GENUINE ANGER AGAINST
FARMERS AND THE GOVERNMENT FOR THE SLOW PACE OF
RESETTLEMENT. (NB. IN PRIOR CONVERSATIONS WITH THE
AMBASSADOR, MSIKA ACKNOWLEDGED THAT POLITICS HAD PLAYED A
ROLE IN THE OCCUPATIONS. END NOTE) THE DONORS'
SUSPENSION OF ASSISTANCE IN LIGHT OF THE OCCUPATIONS,
MSIKA CLAIMED, EMBOLDENED THE FARMERS TO "ENGINEER"
VIOLENT CONFRONTATIONS WITH THE WAR VETERANS, EVEN THOUGH
THE VETERANS HAD BEEN TOLD TO BE PEACEFUL AND NOT TO
INTERFERE WITH FARMING OPERATIONS. THE GOVERNMENT WOULD
HAVE BEEN IRRESPONSIBLE IN ORDERING THE POLICE TO EVICT
THE LARGE NUMBERS OF WAR VETERANS, AS THIS WOULD HAVE
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD BLOODSHED. IN ANY CASE, MSIKA
SAID, MOST OF THE WAR VETERANS WERE MERELY TRESPASSING,
WHICH IN HIS VIEW WAS NOT A SERIOUS CRIME.

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7271

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00
SMEC-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00
FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /013W
-------------- 7E161D 251459Z /38
P 251457Z AUG 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6939
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004750

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, GRACE SONE, AND HOFFMAN BARAK
USDOC FOR 2037/ERIC HENDERSON
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 04750 02 OF 03 251458Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/05
TAGS: PREL PINR ECON EFIN PINR PHUM ZI EAGR
SUBJECT: VP MSIKA: BLAMES OTHERS FOR VIOLENCE AND
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, BUT SOME ENCOURAGING WORDS ON LAND


5. (C) MSIKA INSISTED THAT HE DOES NOT CONDONE
LAWLESSNESS AND CRITICIZED THOSE WAR VETERANS WHO HAD
INTERFERED WITH FARMING OPERATIONS OR BUILT STRUCTURES ON
FARMS THEY HAD OCCUPIED. MSIKA SAID HE HAD ARGUED IN
CABINET THAT THE VETERANS MUST BE MOVED AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE TO FARMS IDENTIFIED FOR ACQUISITION, AS THE
LONGER THIS PROCESS DRAGS ON, THE MORE DIFFICULT IT WILL
BE TO MOVE THEM. HE ACKNOWLEDGED, HOWEVER, THAT
PRESIDENT MUGABE DID NOT SHARE THE CABINET'S VIEW.


6. (C) THE AMBASSADOR SAID HE DISAGREED WITH MSIKA'S
CLAIM THAT THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAD ENGINEERED THE
VIOLENCE. ON THE CONTRARY, THE EVIDENCE CONFIRMED THAT
ZANU-PF BORE THE REPONSIBILITY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE. MSIKA DISAGREED, SAYING THAT
ZANU-PF ONLY HAD RESPONDED TO PROVOCATIONS. TALK OF
FARMER MILITIAS IS NONSENSE. BOTH HE AND MSIKA KNEW, THE
AMBASSADOR SAID, THAT MANY OF THE SO-CALLED WAR VETERANS
WERE TOO YOUNG TO HAVE FOUGHT IN THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE,
AND CLEARLY HAD BEEN SENT TO THE FARMS TO INTIMIDATE AND
BEAT THE FARMERS AND THEIR WORKERS. IF PRESIDENT MUGABE
HAD MADE IT CLEAR FROM THE BEGINNING THAT VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION WERE UNACCEPTABLE AND POLICE HAD BEEN
ALLOWED TO DO THEIR JOB, MOST OF THE LAWLESSNESS COULD
HAVE BEEN AVOIDED.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 04750 02 OF 03 251458Z

--------------
ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES
--------------


7. (C) MSIKA CLAIMED THAT ZIMBABWE DID NOT BEAR FULL
RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS. THE GOZ
PERHAPS WAS TO BLAME FOR SPENDING MORE THAN IT SHOULD
HAVE ON RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND ON ITS MILITARY INVOLVEMENT
IN THE DROC, WHICH HE HOPED WOULD END SOON. HOWEVER, HE
CRITICIZED THE UNITED KINGDOM FOR ADVOCATING THE
IMPOSITION OF EU SANCTIONS AGAINST ZIMBABWE, AND FORMER
AF ASSISTANT SECRETARY CHESTER CROCKER FOR DOING THE SAME
THING IN THE UNITED STATES. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT
CROCKER WAS A PRIVATE CITIZEN REFLECTING HIS OWN VIEWS
AND DID NOT SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT.
HE EMPHASIZED THAT THE USG WAS NOT SEEKING TO PUNISH THE
GOZ, BUT IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS HERE.
MSIKA ASKED ABOUT THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA), WHICH
HE SAID WOULD PUSH ZIMBABWE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. THE
AMBASSADOR RESPONDED THAT THE EMBASSY SHARES THE CONCERNS
OF THE U.S. CONGRESS ABOUT FARM OCCUPATIONS AND THE
ACCOMPANYING VIOLENCE.

--------------
WAY FORWARD
--------------


8. (C) ASKED ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT'S NEXT STEPS, THE VICE
PRESIDENT REPLIED THAT THE GOZ'S MILLENIUM ECONOMIC
RECOVERY PLAN SHOULD GET THE ECONOMY BACK ON THE RIGHT
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PAGE 04 HARARE 04750 02 OF 03 251458Z
TRACK. THE GOZ HAD DEVALUED THE CURRENCY (FROM 38 TO
50:1) AND WAS PLANNING TO REDUCE DRASTICALLY THE SIZE OF
THE CIVIL SERVICE (NB: MSIKA'S AIDE TOLD POLOFF IN AN
ASIDE THAT SOME 20,000 CIVIL SERVICE JOBS COULD BE
ELIMINATED. END NOTE). IN ADDITION, THE GOVERNMENT
PLANNED TO REDUCE EXPENDITURES, BUT LIKELY WOULD NOT MEET
ITS INITIAL TARGET OF A 6 BILLION (ZIMBABWE DOLLAR)
REDUCTION. MSIKA NOTED THAT AN IMF TEAM HAD JUST ARRIVED
IN HARARE, AND HE HOPED ITS DISCUSSIONS WITH THE
GOVERNMENT WOULD BE CONSTRUCTIVE.


9. (C) ON LAND, THE GOZ'S ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE WAS TO
ENSURE A DISTRIBUTION OF EIGHT MILLION HECTARES OF THE
COUNTRY'S ARABLE LAND TO BLACK FARMERS, WITH WHITE FARMS
RETAINING THE REMAINING FOUR MILLION. INDIGENOUS FARMERS
CURRENTLY CONTROL THREE MILLION HECTARES. THE GOVERNMENT
WOULD ABIDE BY ITS COMMITMENT TO ACQUIRE ONLY
UNPRODUCTIVE FARMS OR THOSE OWNED BY ABSENTEE
PROPRIETORS. FARMS ENGAGED IN AGRO-INDUSTRY WOULD BE
EXEMPTED FROM THE RESETTLEMENT EFFORT. IN THE SHORT-
TERM, NO NEW FARM OCCUPATIONS WOULD BE PERMITTED, WHILE
WAR VETERANS CURRENTLY OCCUPYING COMMERCIAL FARMS WOULD
BE REMOVED AND TAKEN TO LAND IDENTIFIED FOR COMPULSORY
ACQUISITION. HE IMPLIED THAT THE HEAVY-HANDED TACTICS
EMPLOYED BY POLICE DURING THE EVICTIONS OF SOME WAR
VETERANS HAD COMPLICATED THE GOVERNMENT'S TASK. MSIKA
SAID THOSE WHO WANT TO BE RESETTLED WOULD BE SCREENED

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7272

PAGE 01 HARARE 04750 03 OF 03 251459Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00
SMEC-00 COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /013W
-------------- 7E163D 251459Z /38
P 251457Z AUG 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6940
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004750

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, GRACE SONE, AND HOFFMAN BARAK
USDOC FOR 2037/ERIC HENDERSON
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 04750 03 OF 03 251459Z

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/05
TAGS: PREL PINR ECON EFIN PINR PHUM ZI EAGR
SUBJECT: VP MSIKA: BLAMES OTHERS FOR VIOLENCE AND
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, BUT SOME ENCOURAGING WORDS ON LAND

CAREFULLY, AS SOME OF THEM ALREADY OWN FARMS.


10. (C) THE GOVERNMENT'S RESETTLEMENT EFFORT, MSIKA
CONTINUED, WOULD BE "QUICKER AND SMOOTHER" WITH OUTSIDE
ASSISTANCE, BUT WOULD BE "ROUGHER AND SLOWER" WITHOUT
SUCH AID. THE DONORS ARE WILLING TO BE INVOLVED, THE
AMBASSADOR REPLIED, BUT EMPHASIZED THAT THE VIOLENCE MUST
END, RULE OF LAW MUST BE RESTORED, AND COURT ORDERS
RELATED TO THE ILLEGAL INVASIONS MUST BE ENFORCED.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PROCESS MUST BE FAIR AND TRANSPARENT,
AND FARMOWNERS MUST BE COMPENSATED FOR THEIR LAND.
ZIMBABWE'S LAND POLICY IS NOT A "NORMAL" ONE, MSIKA SAID,
RECALLING THAT THE LIBERATION WAR HAD BEEN FOUGHT
PRIMARILY OVER THE CONCENTRATION OF LAND IN THE HANDS OF
A FEW.


11. (C) THE USAID DIRECTOR NOTED THAT DONORS HAVE
DISCUSSED INFORMALLY HOW THEY MIGHT REENGAGE ON LAND
REFORM, AND UNDER WHAT CONDITIONS. AMONG THE HURDLES TO
REENGAGEMENT WAS THE GOZ'S CUMBERSOME INSTITUTIONAL
FRAMEWORK. WOULD THE GOZ BE WILLING TO SET UP A NEW,
MORE STREAMLINED STRUCTURE TO WORK WITH THE DONORS ON
LAND REFORM? THE VICE-PRESIDENT AGREED TO LOOK INTO THAT
POSSIBILITY.

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PAGE 03 HARARE 04750 03 OF 03 251459Z
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COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) MSIKA'S COMMENTS LAYING THE PREDOMINANT BLAME ON
OTHERS FOR ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC MESS AND THE PRE-ELECTION
VIOLENCE WERE MERELY THE LATEST IN A COMMON REFRAIN FROM
THIS GOVERNMENT. THESE ARE ALL FROM THE SAME SCRIPT. ON
LAND, WE WERE ENCOURAGED BY MSIKA'S REPORT OF CABINET
AGREEMENT THAT NO NEW INVASIONS WILL BE PERMITTED AND
THAT WAR VETERANS SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM CURRENTLY-
OCCUPIED FARMS, EXCEPT FROM THOSE WHICH HAVE BEEN LISTED.
PRESIDENT MUGABE IS CLEARLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH REMOVING
THE VETERANS, HOWEVER, AND HIS DISCOMFORT LIKELY WAS NOT
ASSUAGED BY THE AGGRESSIVE TACTICS EMPLOYED BY POLICE
EARLIER THIS WEEK IN EVICTING SOME VETERANS FROM FARMS ON
HARARE'S OUTSKIRTS. IN A SEPARATE CONVERSATION WITH THE
AMBASSADOR, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY MINISTER
NKOSANA MOYO SURMISED THAT LOCAL POLICE OFFICERS, IN
CAHOOTS WITH THE WAR VETERANS, MIGHT HAVE USED SUCH
TACTICS INTENTIONALLY IN ORDER TO COMPLICATE THE GOZ'S
ABILITY TO PROCEED WITH ADDITIONAL EVICTIONS.
MEANWHILE, ACCORDING TO THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION
(CFU), THE EVICTIONS ARE CONTINUING. THE CFU WAS TOLD BY
THE DEPUTY POLICE COMMISSIONER ON AUGUST 25 THAT THE
POLICE WOULD CONTINUE TO REMOVE VETERANS FROM OCCUPIED
FARMS UNLESS ORDERED OTHERWISE.


13. (C) MSIKA'S COMMENTS ON THE ECONOMIC WAY FORWARD
FRANKLY DID NOT INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
GOVERNMENT WILL BE ABLE TO EXTRICATE ITSELF FROM THE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 04750 03 OF 03 251459Z
CURRENT MESS. THE MILLENIUM ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN IS A
LAUNDRY LIST OF LAUDABLE GOALS, BUT THE GOVERNMENT AT
PRESENT DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES -- OR POLITICAL WILL
-- TO IMPLEMENT MOST OF ITS PROVISIONS. THE GOVERNMENT
HAS, FOR INSTANCE, PROMISED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CUT THE PUBLIC SECTOR PAYROLL, BUT WE HAVE
YET TO SEE ANY CONCRETE STEPS IN THAT DIRECTION.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

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