C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004749

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ZI CG
SUBJECT: VIEW FROM ZIMBABWE ON DROC ISSUES DISCUSSED IN
MAPUTO


CLASSIFIED BY AMB. TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND
(D).
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1. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD SPOKE TO FORMER INDUSTRY AND
COMMERCE MINISTER NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA ABOUT PRESIDENT
MUGABE'S CONGOLESE DISCUSSIONS WITH REGIONAL LEADERS IN
MAPUTO AUGUST 20-23. SHAMUYARIRA, WHO EARLIER IN HIS
CAREER WAS FOREIGN MINISTER AND IS STILL IN CLOSE
COUNSEL WITH MUGABE, PROVIDED A BRIEF READOUT OF
MUGABE'S ONE-ON-ONE MEETING (WITH NO NOTETAKERS) WITH
UGANDAN PRESIDENT MUSEVENI AND OTHERS. SHAMUYARIRA, WHO
ACCOMPANIED THE PRESIDENT TO MAPUTO BUT WAS NOT PRESENT
AT ANY OF THE RELEVANT MEETINGS, CONVEYED MUGABE'S VIEW
THAT PRESIDENT KABILA IS NOW BEING MORE FLEXIBLE AND
WILL HELP GET THE LUSAKA ACCORDS BACK ON TRACK.
APPARENTLY, KABILA WILL PERMIT THE MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN
CONGOLESE TERRITORY AS THE FIRST CONCRETE STEP IN
REVIVING THE ACCORDS. ADDITIONALLY, POSITIVE ACTION BY
RWANDA AND UGANDA COULD BRING REBEL OFFENSIVES TO AN
END. SHAMUYARIRA FURTHER REPORTED THAT THE ROLE OF
MASIRE AS FACILITATOR IS STILL A POINT OF CONTENTION, SO
OTHER LEADERS WERE BEING CONSIDERED, INCLUDING NELSON
MANDELA. HE THOUGHT THAT KABILA WAS OPEN TO MANDELA
ASSUMING THE FACILITATOR ROLE AND THAT THE FORMER
PRESIDENT WAS ALSO INTERESTED.


2. (C) COMMENT: SHAMUYARIRA'S BELIEF (AND PRESUMABLY
MUGABE'S) THAT KABILA WILL TAKE THESE NECESSARY STEPS TO
REVIVE LUSAKA IS SOMEWHAT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS
POINT. GIVEN KABILA'S OPEN AND WELL KNOWN DISLIKE OF
MANDELA, IT IS HARD FOR US TO THINK THAT THIS IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER, MUGABE'S CONTINUING STRONG FOCUS
ON SEEKING A PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO THE DROC WAR
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UNDERSCORES HIS DESIRE TO WITHDRAW THE TROOP DEPLOYMENT
THAT HIS COUNTRY CANNOT AFFORD.


3. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: PROCEDURALLY, IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NO ONE FROM THE FOREIGN
MINISTRY WAS INVOLVED IN THESE DISCUSSIONS IN MAPUTO AND
NO ONE AT MFA KNEW ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE ABOUT THEM WHEN
WE INQUIRED TODAY. IT SOUNDS LIKE SHAMUYARIRA WILL BE
PLAYING THE ROLE OF SPECIAL ADVISOR ON SEVERAL IMPORTANT
FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES. THE FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER MAY
NOW FUNCTION LIKE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON
MNANGAGWA ON SUCH WEIGHTY MATTERS. HE TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT HE IS ACCOMPANYING MUGABE ON HIS TRIP TO
LIBYA, WHICH BEGINS ON AUGUST 27 OR 28. SHAMUYARIRA
AGREED TO GIVE THE AMBASSADOR A READOUT ON THESE ISSUES
WHEN HE RETURNS FROM TRIPOLI LATER NEXT WEEK.

MCDONALD

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