VIEW FROM ZIMBABWE ON DROC ISSUES DISCUSSED IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004749 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ZI CG SUBJECT: VIEW FROM ZIMBABWE ON DROC ISSUES DISCUSSED IN MAPUTO CLASSIFIED BY AMB. TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04749 251442Z ¶1. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD SPOKE TO FORMER INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE MINISTER NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA ABOUT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CONGOLESE DISCUSSIONS WITH REGIONAL LEADERS IN MAPUTO AUGUST 20-23. SHAMUYARIRA, WHO EARLIER IN HIS CAREER WAS FOREIGN MINISTER AND IS STILL IN CLOSE COUNSEL WITH MUGABE, PROVIDED A BRIEF READOUT OF MUGABE'S ONE-ON-ONE MEETING (WITH NO NOTETAKERS) WITH UGANDAN PRESIDENT MUSEVENI AND OTHERS. SHAMUYARIRA, WHO ACCOMPANIED THE PRESIDENT TO MAPUTO BUT WAS NOT PRESENT AT ANY OF THE RELEVANT MEETINGS, CONVEYED MUGABE'S VIEW THAT PRESIDENT KABILA IS NOW BEING MORE FLEXIBLE AND WILL HELP GET THE LUSAKA ACCORDS BACK ON TRACK. APPARENTLY, KABILA WILL PERMIT THE MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN CONGOLESE TERRITORY AS THE FIRST CONCRETE STEP IN REVIVING THE ACCORDS. ADDITIONALLY, POSITIVE ACTION BY RWANDA AND UGANDA COULD BRING REBEL OFFENSIVES TO AN END. SHAMUYARIRA FURTHER REPORTED THAT THE ROLE OF MASIRE AS FACILITATOR IS STILL A POINT OF CONTENTION, SO OTHER LEADERS WERE BEING CONSIDERED, INCLUDING NELSON MANDELA. HE THOUGHT THAT KABILA WAS OPEN TO MANDELA ASSUMING THE FACILITATOR ROLE AND THAT THE FORMER PRESIDENT WAS ALSO INTERESTED. ¶2. (C) COMMENT: SHAMUYARIRA'S BELIEF (AND PRESUMABLY MUGABE'S) THAT KABILA WILL TAKE THESE NECESSARY STEPS TO REVIVE LUSAKA IS SOMEWHAT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT. GIVEN KABILA'S OPEN AND WELL KNOWN DISLIKE OF MANDELA, IT IS HARD FOR US TO THINK THAT THIS IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER, MUGABE'S CONTINUING STRONG FOCUS ON SEEKING A PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO THE DROC WAR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04749 251442Z UNDERSCORES HIS DESIRE TO WITHDRAW THE TROOP DEPLOYMENT THAT HIS COUNTRY CANNOT AFFORD. ¶3. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: PROCEDURALLY, IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NO ONE FROM THE FOREIGN MINISTRY WAS INVOLVED IN THESE DISCUSSIONS IN MAPUTO AND NO ONE AT MFA KNEW ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE ABOUT THEM WHEN WE INQUIRED TODAY. IT SOUNDS LIKE SHAMUYARIRA WILL BE PLAYING THE ROLE OF SPECIAL ADVISOR ON SEVERAL IMPORTANT FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES. THE FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER MAY NOW FUNCTION LIKE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA ON SUCH WEIGHTY MATTERS. HE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE IS ACCOMPANYING MUGABE ON HIS TRIP TO LIBYA, WHICH BEGINS ON AUGUST 27 OR 28. SHAMUYARIRA AGREED TO GIVE THE AMBASSADOR A READOUT ON THESE ISSUES WHEN HE RETURNS FROM TRIPOLI LATER NEXT WEEK. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >