C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004492

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/10
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM? FOR NOW AT LEAST,
INTELLECTUALS HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE IN A SPLIT
CABINET


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REF: HARARE 4362

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) AFTER ONLY FOUR MEETINGS, ZIMBABWE'S CABINET
APPEARS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN FACTIONS: ONE LED BY
INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO AND THE
OTHER LED BY FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTER
SIMBA MAKONI AND INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE
MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO. THESE LATTER INDIVIDUALS HAVE
EMERGED AS THE CABINET'S MORE MODERATE, OBJECTIVE AND
PERHAPS MORE INTELLECTUAL OR AT LEAST PRAGMATIC LEADERS,
WHILE ITS OTHER MEMBERS HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED THE SAME
ABILITY TO TAKE STOCK OF THE FUTURE OR ARTICULATE
POSITIONS. JONATHAN MOYO LEADS THE ANTI-WEST GROUP WHO
ARE PROPONENTS OF THE ACCELERATED LAND REFORM PROGRAM,
THE DONORS AND CONSEQUENCES BE DAMNED. IN THAT GROUP WE
WOULD PLACE FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE, AND
LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING
MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, WHO IS ALSO THE LEADER OF THE
INTER-MINISTERIAL GROUP RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPLEMENTING THE
FAST TRACK LAND RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE. THE OTHER
FACTION IS WHAT ONE MIGHT LOOSELY TERM THE PRAGMATISTS,
WHO WANT TO TURN THE ECONOMY AROUND AND WOULD BE WILLING
TO COMPROMISE WITH THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE ON CERTAIN ISSUES OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE. WHILE IN THE MINORITY, WE WOULD PLACE IN
THE GROUP HIGHER EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY MINISTER
HERBERT MURERWA.

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2. (C) OF GREATER INTEREST TO US IS HOW THE MAKONI
SCHOOL OF THOUGHT WILL FARE. AT THIS EARLY STAGE,
PRESIDENT MUGABE APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED THE CABINET
RIFT TO EMERGE, WHILE GIVING NO OVERT SIGN WITH RESPECT
TO WHICH SIDE HE ALIGNS HIMSELF. HE SEEMS HAPPY TO PLAY
THE ONE OFF AGAINST THE OTHER, IN THE TRADITION OF AN

AFRICAN CHIEF. MAKONI, FOR HIS PART, IS ALSO MOVING
QUICKLY. ZIMBABWE'S MINISTRIES ARE ALREADY FEELING HIS
REDUCED AND PENNY PINCHING DISBURSEMENTS. THE FINANCE
MINISTER IS OVERWHELMING THE CABINET WITH THE NUMBER OF
PROPOSALS HE PUTS TO IT EVERY SESSION. AT THE AUGUST 15
MEETING, MAKONI WAS SCHEDULED TO PRESENT A NUMBER OF
PROPOSALS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING EXPENDITURES BY
MINISTERS ON PERKS. OBVIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE MET WITH
SOME RESISTANCE. ADDITIONALLY, HE IS ALSO SAID TO BE
LOOKING FOR AN ENTRY POINT ON THE LAND QUESTION TO WREST
ITS OWNERSHIP AWAY FROM THE HARDLINERS.


3. (C) MUGABE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, SEEMS TO HAVE GIVEN
MAKONI SOME LEASH TO PROPOSE PROGRAMS TO REVERSE
ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC SLIDE. RUMORS CONTINUE TO MULTIPLY
THAT MUGABE WILL ELEVATE HIS FINANCE MINISTER TO THE
POLITBURO. THE PRESIDENT IS PLAYING AN IMPORTANT CARD
BY INCREASING THE AUTHORITY AND CLOUT OF THIS APPEALING
AND CAPABLE CABINET MEMBER. AGAINST WHOM AND FOR WHAT
REASON REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT IN SO DOING, HE WILL
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE HIS CONTROL OVER HIS FINANCE
MINISTER. AMONG POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, MUGABE MAY BE
CONSIDERING MAKONI AS HIS SUCCESSOR.


4. (C) THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT REMAINS AN ENIGMATIC
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IF NOT MERCURIAL FIGURE. HE HAS NOT LOST HIS EDGE AS A
STRATEGIC THINKER AND IS PROMOTING MAKONI FOR A REASON,
PROBABLY AS A TRUMP CARD TO ENSURE THAT ZANU-PF WINS THE
PRESIDENCY IN 2002. MUGABE WOULD NEED THAT OUTCOME FOR
HIS OWN PROTECTION, IF HE CHOOSES NOT TO RUN. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE PRESIDENT REMAINS CONSISTENT: HE
CONTINUES TO HAVE NEAR TOTAL DISREGARD FOR THE ECONOMY.
HIS DISCOURSE FOLLOWS A POLITICAL/MILITARY LOGIC, AND IN
HIS MIND, IT IS CORRECT FOR WHAT HE WANTS: POWER AND THE
ASSETS OF THE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY. THAT
THE DESTRUCTION OF COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE SOUNDS
MONSTROUS IN LIGHT OF THE POPULAR FRUSTRATION WITH THE
COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC DOWNFALL IS OF LITTLE CONCERN TO HIM.
HE DOES UNDERSTAND POLITICAL ECONOMY: A ZANU-PF
ELECTORAL VICTORY IN 2002 WOULD BE CLINCHED IF THE
COUNTRY'S ECONOMY WERE TO START EXHIBITING SIGNS OF A
POSITIVE GROWTH RATE SOMETIME LATER THIS YEAR AND INTO
NEXT. THAT WOULD BE AN ASTOUNDING PERFORMANCE FOR SIMBA
MAKONI, POSSIBLE IF THE PRESIDENT WERE TO STOP TALKING
AND ABANDON HIS CURRENT TACK ON LAND REFORM. HAVE WE
SEEN ANY SIGNS OF THIS? NO. IS IT POSSIBLE? WE DOUBT
IT. WHILE WE WISH MAKONI WELL, AND HAVE HIGH REGARD FOR
HIM, HIS EFFORTS MAY AMOUNT TO TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE, AND
HE MAY NOT LAST LONG. IN FACT, THE FAILURE OF SUCH AN
INDIVIDUAL WOULD, WITHOUT DOUBT, BE POINTED TO BY MUGABE

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2489

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00
EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W
-------------- 7A1E41 151652Z /38
P 151650Z AUG 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6845
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004492

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/10
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM? FOR NOW AT LEAST,
INTELLECTUALS HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE IN A SPLIT
CABINET

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PAGE 02 HARARE 04492 02 OF 02 151652Z
AS YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF HOW AND WHY MARKET-REFORMERS
WITH WESTERN IDEALS JUST CANNOT WORK IN ZIMBABWE. IN
HIS POST-MORTEM STATEMENTS, MUGABE WOULD AGAIN BEAT THE
DRUMS OF HIS OWN PERSONAL IDEOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY, THE
REST OF THE WORLD BE DAMNED.

MCDONALD

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