WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM? FOR NOW AT LEAST,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004492 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/10 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI SUBJECT: WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM? FOR NOW AT LEAST, INTELLECTUALS HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE IN A SPLIT CABINET CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04492 01 OF 02 151652Z REF: HARARE 4362 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) AFTER ONLY FOUR MEETINGS, ZIMBABWE'S CABINET APPEARS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN FACTIONS: ONE LED BY INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO AND THE OTHER LED BY FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI AND INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO. THESE LATTER INDIVIDUALS HAVE EMERGED AS THE CABINET'S MORE MODERATE, OBJECTIVE AND PERHAPS MORE INTELLECTUAL OR AT LEAST PRAGMATIC LEADERS, WHILE ITS OTHER MEMBERS HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED THE SAME ABILITY TO TAKE STOCK OF THE FUTURE OR ARTICULATE POSITIONS. JONATHAN MOYO LEADS THE ANTI-WEST GROUP WHO ARE PROPONENTS OF THE ACCELERATED LAND REFORM PROGRAM, THE DONORS AND CONSEQUENCES BE DAMNED. IN THAT GROUP WE WOULD PLACE FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, WHO IS ALSO THE LEADER OF THE INTER-MINISTERIAL GROUP RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPLEMENTING THE FAST TRACK LAND RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE. THE OTHER FACTION IS WHAT ONE MIGHT LOOSELY TERM THE PRAGMATISTS, WHO WANT TO TURN THE ECONOMY AROUND AND WOULD BE WILLING TO COMPROMISE WITH THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE ON CERTAIN ISSUES OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE. WHILE IN THE MINORITY, WE WOULD PLACE IN THE GROUP HIGHER EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY MINISTER HERBERT MURERWA. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04492 01 OF 02 151652Z ¶2. (C) OF GREATER INTEREST TO US IS HOW THE MAKONI SCHOOL OF THOUGHT WILL FARE. AT THIS EARLY STAGE, PRESIDENT MUGABE APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED THE CABINET RIFT TO EMERGE, WHILE GIVING NO OVERT SIGN WITH RESPECT TO WHICH SIDE HE ALIGNS HIMSELF. HE SEEMS HAPPY TO PLAY THE ONE OFF AGAINST THE OTHER, IN THE TRADITION OF AN AFRICAN CHIEF. MAKONI, FOR HIS PART, IS ALSO MOVING QUICKLY. ZIMBABWE'S MINISTRIES ARE ALREADY FEELING HIS REDUCED AND PENNY PINCHING DISBURSEMENTS. THE FINANCE MINISTER IS OVERWHELMING THE CABINET WITH THE NUMBER OF PROPOSALS HE PUTS TO IT EVERY SESSION. AT THE AUGUST 15 MEETING, MAKONI WAS SCHEDULED TO PRESENT A NUMBER OF PROPOSALS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING EXPENDITURES BY MINISTERS ON PERKS. OBVIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE MET WITH SOME RESISTANCE. ADDITIONALLY, HE IS ALSO SAID TO BE LOOKING FOR AN ENTRY POINT ON THE LAND QUESTION TO WREST ITS OWNERSHIP AWAY FROM THE HARDLINERS. ¶3. (C) MUGABE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, SEEMS TO HAVE GIVEN MAKONI SOME LEASH TO PROPOSE PROGRAMS TO REVERSE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC SLIDE. RUMORS CONTINUE TO MULTIPLY THAT MUGABE WILL ELEVATE HIS FINANCE MINISTER TO THE POLITBURO. THE PRESIDENT IS PLAYING AN IMPORTANT CARD BY INCREASING THE AUTHORITY AND CLOUT OF THIS APPEALING AND CAPABLE CABINET MEMBER. AGAINST WHOM AND FOR WHAT REASON REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT IN SO DOING, HE WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE HIS CONTROL OVER HIS FINANCE MINISTER. AMONG POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, MUGABE MAY BE CONSIDERING MAKONI AS HIS SUCCESSOR. ¶4. (C) THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT REMAINS AN ENIGMATIC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04492 01 OF 02 151652Z IF NOT MERCURIAL FIGURE. HE HAS NOT LOST HIS EDGE AS A STRATEGIC THINKER AND IS PROMOTING MAKONI FOR A REASON, PROBABLY AS A TRUMP CARD TO ENSURE THAT ZANU-PF WINS THE PRESIDENCY IN 2002. MUGABE WOULD NEED THAT OUTCOME FOR HIS OWN PROTECTION, IF HE CHOOSES NOT TO RUN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE PRESIDENT REMAINS CONSISTENT: HE CONTINUES TO HAVE NEAR TOTAL DISREGARD FOR THE ECONOMY. HIS DISCOURSE FOLLOWS A POLITICAL/MILITARY LOGIC, AND IN HIS MIND, IT IS CORRECT FOR WHAT HE WANTS: POWER AND THE ASSETS OF THE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY. THAT THE DESTRUCTION OF COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE SOUNDS MONSTROUS IN LIGHT OF THE POPULAR FRUSTRATION WITH THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC DOWNFALL IS OF LITTLE CONCERN TO HIM. HE DOES UNDERSTAND POLITICAL ECONOMY: A ZANU-PF ELECTORAL VICTORY IN 2002 WOULD BE CLINCHED IF THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY WERE TO START EXHIBITING SIGNS OF A POSITIVE GROWTH RATE SOMETIME LATER THIS YEAR AND INTO NEXT. THAT WOULD BE AN ASTOUNDING PERFORMANCE FOR SIMBA MAKONI, POSSIBLE IF THE PRESIDENT WERE TO STOP TALKING AND ABANDON HIS CURRENT TACK ON LAND REFORM. HAVE WE SEEN ANY SIGNS OF THIS? NO. IS IT POSSIBLE? WE DOUBT IT. WHILE WE WISH MAKONI WELL, AND HAVE HIGH REGARD FOR HIM, HIS EFFORTS MAY AMOUNT TO TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE, AND HE MAY NOT LAST LONG. IN FACT, THE FAILURE OF SUCH AN INDIVIDUAL WOULD, WITHOUT DOUBT, BE POINTED TO BY MUGABE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2489 PAGE 01 HARARE 04492 02 OF 02 151652Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 7A1E41 151652Z /38 P 151650Z AUG 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6845 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004492 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/10 TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI SUBJECT: WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM? FOR NOW AT LEAST, INTELLECTUALS HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE IN A SPLIT CABINET CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04492 02 OF 02 151652Z AS YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF HOW AND WHY MARKET-REFORMERS WITH WESTERN IDEALS JUST CANNOT WORK IN ZIMBABWE. IN HIS POST-MORTEM STATEMENTS, MUGABE WOULD AGAIN BEAT THE DRUMS OF HIS OWN PERSONAL IDEOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY, THE REST OF THE WORLD BE DAMNED. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >