ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION MAKES A

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004479 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS STATE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA RCOHEN STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS PRETORIA FOR AG ATTACHE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/05 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04479 141515Z TAGS: EAGR ECON PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION MAKES A COUNTEROFFER TO THE GOVERNMENT'S 3,000 FARMS PROGRAM CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, REASON 1.5 (B), (D) REFS: A) HARARE 4362, B) HARARE 4297 ¶1. (C) ON AUGUST 14 THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) DELIVERED A PROPOSAL TO VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA (IN HIS CAPACITY AS CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL LAND ACQUISITION COMMITTEE),LAYING OUT A COUNTEROFFER TO THE GOVERNMENT'S ANNOUNCED PLANS TO GAZETTE OVER 3000 FARMS FOR IMMEDIATE SEIZURE AND RESETTLEMENT (REF A). THIS FOLLOWS THE ANNOUNCEMENT LAST WEEK ON AUGUST 10 THAT IT WAS WITHDRAWING ITS LEGAL ACTION AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE, POLICE COMMISSIONER CHIHURI, AND WAR VETERANS LEADER HUNZVI OVER THE FARM ACQUISITIONS AND OCCUPATIONS, AND THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE RULE OF LAW. IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO WILLIAM HUGHES, VICE PRESIDENT FOR REGIONS AT CFU, THE PETITION THE UNION HAD SENT TO PRESIDENT MUGABE ASKING FOR HIS DIRECT INTERVENTION TO STOP THE INVASIONS "HAS FALLEN AWAY." IN A PRESS ANNOUNCEMENT, THE CFU'S PRESIDENT TIM HENWOOD STATED THAT THE MOVES WOULD ENABLE "MORE MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE CFU AND THE GOVERNMENT TO RESOLVE THE ONGOING FARM CRISIS." THE CFU'S ACTIONS ON THE 10TH WERE CLEARLY INTENDED TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE CFU'S LATEST REBUTTAL OFFER TO THE GOZ. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04479 141515Z ¶2. (C) IN THE PROPOSAL, THE CFU OFFERS THE GOZ 200 FARMS NOW (ON A WILLING SELLER, COMMERCIAL VALUE BASIS),ANOTHER 400 BY APRIL 30, 2001, AND 400 MORE ANNUALLY FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS (A TOTAL OF 2,200 FARMS). THE CFU PROPOSAL IS CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLETE AND IMMEDIATE STOPPAGE OF THE INVASIONS AND LAWLESSNESS, AND THE REMOVAL OF THE WAR VETERANS FROM THE FARMS THEY CURRENTLY OCCUPY, HUGHES TOLD US. IN ADDITION HE FLATLY DENIED (CONTRARY TO RUMORS WE HAD HEARD OVER THE WEEKEND) THAT A DEADLINE HAD BEEN SET BY THE CFU FOR THE WAR VETS REMOVAL, OR THAT THE UNION WOULD BACK A NATIONWIDE BOYCOTT OF TOBACCO PLANTING IF THE LAWLESSNESS CONTINUES. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: BECAUSE THE CFU PROPOSAL CONTAINS NO RADICAL NEW OFFERS, NOR ANY QUICK-TO-EXECUTE SOLUTIONS THAT WOULD YIELD POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR THE PRESIDENT, WE DOUBT THAT THIS LATEST PACKAGE WILL BE EMBRACED BY EITHER MUGABE OR THE GOZ. IN ADDITION, WE ARE NOT SURE THAT THE FARM UNION'S MEMBERSHIP WOULD ENDORSE THE OFFER IF A REFERNDUM OR VOTE WAS HELD TODAY ON THE MATTER. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE AND SENSE THAT THE AVERAGE COMMERCIAL FARMER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISILLUSIONED WITH NOT ONLY HIS OWN PLIGHT, BUT ALSO THE LACK OF RESULTS COMING FROM CFU'S NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GOVERNMENT SINCE THE INVASIONS BEGAN IN LATE FEBRUARY. BEING TOLD TO "KEEP COOL" FOR A FEW MONTHS IS ONE THING, BUT BEING TOLD THIS FOR GOING ON SIX MONTHS IS ANOTHER. AT THE MOMENT WE PREDICT THAT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04479 141515Z GOZ'S LAND JUGGERNAUT WILL ROLL ON IN ITS HAPHAZARD MANNER, CRUSHING ALL IN ITS PATH REGARDLESS OF PROTESTS, LOUD OR SOFT, COMING FROM WITHIN THE COUNTRY OR ABROAD. MUGABE, WITH HIS EYES ON THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL GO IT ALONE AND CONTINUE TO USE THE LAND PROBLEM AS A BLATANT POLITICAL TOOL EVEN THOUGH IT WAS A FAILED STRATEGY IN THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >