C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004389

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - RMMCALL AND AFR/SA - MWILLIAMS,
NNEWMAN, AND CREINTSMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/10
TAGS: PHUM PGOV EAGR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE CONTINUES MOSTLY UNABATED
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REF: HARARE 04362

CLASSIFIED BY CDA EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) THE AMANI TRUST, A RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS MONITORING
ORGANIZATION IN ZIMBABWE, RECENTLY RELEASED A REPORT
DETAILING THE CONTINUED VIOLENCE FOLLOWING THE JUNE 24-25
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. THE TRUST PUTS THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE ASSAULTED OR OTHERWISE VICTIMS OF RIGHTS VIOLATIONS
IN THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD AT ALMOST 900. THESE INCLUDE 5
DEATHS, 232 SERIOUS ASSAULTS, 8 RAPES (NOTE: IT IS NOTEWORTHY
THAT SO MANY RAPES HAVE BEEN REPORTED; RAPE IS
TRADITIONALLY A TABOO SUBJECT, A SOCIAL STIGMA EXAGGERATED
BY THE HIV/AIDS CRISIS. END NOTE.), AND 18 DETENTIONS OR
ABDUCTIONS. THE NUMBER OF DOCUMENTED CASES OF VIOLENT
INCIDENTS AND DEATHS RISES DAILY; INCLUDED ARE MANY VICTIMS
WHO WENT UNDERGROUND BEFORE THE VOTING, FEARING
RETRIBUTION AND WHO ARE ONLY NOW APPEARING AT HOSPITALS
FOR TREATMENT OR AT NGOS TO REPORT THEIR EXPERIENCES. WE
BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THESE FIGURES ARE STILL LOW, AS
INTIMIDATION CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH -- ESPECIALLY WHERE IT
CONCERNS ATTACKS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE RURAL AREAS.


2. (C) IN THIS INCREASINGLY MURKY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT, IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR REASON FOR THE CONTINUED
VIOLENCE. THERE ARE PROBABLY MULTIPLE FACTORS. CAUSES
VARY FROM ANGER OVER LOST SEATS IN PARLIAMENT BY THE
RULING PARTY, FEAR OF EVICTION FROM OCCUPIED LAND, DESIRE
FOR LAND, OR EVEN RANDOM VIOLENT EXPRESSIONS OF
FRUSTRATION AT ZIMBABWE'S UNENDING ECONOMIC WOES (METED
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OUT AGAINST SUPPOSED SUPPORTERS OF "WESTERN-LED", I.E., MDC
MEMBERS). OFFICIALS AT THE AMANI TRUST BELIEVE THAT THE WAR
VETERANS GROUPS TERRORIZING FARMERS, WORKERS, AND ALLEGED
OPPOSITION MEMBER SUPPORTERS ARE INCREASINGLY
AUTONOMOUS, PRESSING THEIR CAMPAIGN IN AN EFFORT TO HOUND
THE GOVERNMENT TO RECALL THAT THEY ARE THE ONES WHO
SWUNG THE RURAL VOTE FOR ZANU-PF CANDIDATES. EVEN IF THE
GOVERNMENT FEELS THOSE OCCUPYING THE LAND HAVE OUTLIVED
THEIR USEFULNESS AND DISTANCES ITSELF FOR THEM, THEIR
CONTINUED CAMPAIGN OF TERROR NEVERTHELESS MAKES CLEAR
THEIR ABILITY TO MAINTAIN A STATE OF CHAOS IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE. THIS, IN TURN, ENHANCES THEIR ROLE AS
POWERBROKERS.


3. (C) THE POLICE AND THE ARMY APPEAR TO BE PLAYING DIFFERENT
ROLES, DEPENDING ON WHERE IN THE COUNTRY IN THEY ARE
LOCATED. IN SOME LOCALES, POLICE AND ARMY OFFICERS ARE THE
PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE (VARYING ESTIMATES PUT THEIR
PARTICIPATION AT 20-30%), WHILE IN OTHERS, THEY HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW ONLY TO BE RENDERED
HAPLESS BY MENACING GROUPS OF ZANU-PF YOUTHS, WAR
VETERANS, OR EVEN "HIGHER POWER" GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WHO
THREATEN TRANSFER OR DEMOTION. PRESS REPORTS ALSO DEPICT
THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO), ZIMBABWE'S
EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SECURITY AGENCY, AS EXPERIENCING
INTERNAL DIVISIONS OVER THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE VIOLENCE
- THOUGH THEIR ROLE NEVERTHELESS AS A CENTRAL
ORCHESTRATING AND FIELD MANAGEMENT ASSET REMAINS HIGH.


4. (C) COMMENT: WE BELIEVE THAT THIS VIOLENCE COULD BE
HALTED IF PRESIDENT MUGABE WISHED IT AND DECREED SO. HIS
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DESIRE TO PUSH THE LAND ISSUE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN (REFTEL) ADDS FUEL TO THE FIRE, MAKES A
FURTHER DESCENT INTO LAWLESSNESS MORE PROBABLE, AND LENDS
CREDENCE TO THE BELIEF BY MANY THAT THIS UGLY ISSUE WILL
DRAG ON FOR A LONG TIME TO COME. MEANWHILE, THE LIST OF
VICTIMS GROWS, AS DOES THE PUBLIC'S SENSE OF FRUSTRATION AND
HELPLESSNESS. END COMMENT.

IRVING

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