POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE CONTINUES MOSTLY UNABATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004389 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER PASS USAID FOR A/AID - RMMCALL AND AFR/SA - MWILLIAMS, NNEWMAN, AND CREINTSMA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/10 TAGS: PHUM PGOV EAGR ECON ZI SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE CONTINUES MOSTLY UNABATED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04389 081603Z REF: HARARE 04362 CLASSIFIED BY CDA EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) THE AMANI TRUST, A RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS MONITORING ORGANIZATION IN ZIMBABWE, RECENTLY RELEASED A REPORT DETAILING THE CONTINUED VIOLENCE FOLLOWING THE JUNE 24-25 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. THE TRUST PUTS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ASSAULTED OR OTHERWISE VICTIMS OF RIGHTS VIOLATIONS IN THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD AT ALMOST 900. THESE INCLUDE 5 DEATHS, 232 SERIOUS ASSAULTS, 8 RAPES (NOTE: IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT SO MANY RAPES HAVE BEEN REPORTED; RAPE IS TRADITIONALLY A TABOO SUBJECT, A SOCIAL STIGMA EXAGGERATED BY THE HIV/AIDS CRISIS. END NOTE.),AND 18 DETENTIONS OR ABDUCTIONS. THE NUMBER OF DOCUMENTED CASES OF VIOLENT INCIDENTS AND DEATHS RISES DAILY; INCLUDED ARE MANY VICTIMS WHO WENT UNDERGROUND BEFORE THE VOTING, FEARING RETRIBUTION AND WHO ARE ONLY NOW APPEARING AT HOSPITALS FOR TREATMENT OR AT NGOS TO REPORT THEIR EXPERIENCES. WE BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THESE FIGURES ARE STILL LOW, AS INTIMIDATION CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH -- ESPECIALLY WHERE IT CONCERNS ATTACKS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE RURAL AREAS. ¶2. (C) IN THIS INCREASINGLY MURKY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A PARTICULAR REASON FOR THE CONTINUED VIOLENCE. THERE ARE PROBABLY MULTIPLE FACTORS. CAUSES VARY FROM ANGER OVER LOST SEATS IN PARLIAMENT BY THE RULING PARTY, FEAR OF EVICTION FROM OCCUPIED LAND, DESIRE FOR LAND, OR EVEN RANDOM VIOLENT EXPRESSIONS OF FRUSTRATION AT ZIMBABWE'S UNENDING ECONOMIC WOES (METED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04389 081603Z OUT AGAINST SUPPOSED SUPPORTERS OF "WESTERN-LED", I.E., MDC MEMBERS). OFFICIALS AT THE AMANI TRUST BELIEVE THAT THE WAR VETERANS GROUPS TERRORIZING FARMERS, WORKERS, AND ALLEGED OPPOSITION MEMBER SUPPORTERS ARE INCREASINGLY AUTONOMOUS, PRESSING THEIR CAMPAIGN IN AN EFFORT TO HOUND THE GOVERNMENT TO RECALL THAT THEY ARE THE ONES WHO SWUNG THE RURAL VOTE FOR ZANU-PF CANDIDATES. EVEN IF THE GOVERNMENT FEELS THOSE OCCUPYING THE LAND HAVE OUTLIVED THEIR USEFULNESS AND DISTANCES ITSELF FOR THEM, THEIR CONTINUED CAMPAIGN OF TERROR NEVERTHELESS MAKES CLEAR THEIR ABILITY TO MAINTAIN A STATE OF CHAOS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE. THIS, IN TURN, ENHANCES THEIR ROLE AS POWERBROKERS. ¶3. (C) THE POLICE AND THE ARMY APPEAR TO BE PLAYING DIFFERENT ROLES, DEPENDING ON WHERE IN THE COUNTRY IN THEY ARE LOCATED. IN SOME LOCALES, POLICE AND ARMY OFFICERS ARE THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE (VARYING ESTIMATES PUT THEIR PARTICIPATION AT 20-30%),WHILE IN OTHERS, THEY HAVE ATTEMPTED TO UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW ONLY TO BE RENDERED HAPLESS BY MENACING GROUPS OF ZANU-PF YOUTHS, WAR VETERANS, OR EVEN "HIGHER POWER" GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WHO THREATEN TRANSFER OR DEMOTION. PRESS REPORTS ALSO DEPICT THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO),ZIMBABWE'S EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SECURITY AGENCY, AS EXPERIENCING INTERNAL DIVISIONS OVER THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE VIOLENCE - THOUGH THEIR ROLE NEVERTHELESS AS A CENTRAL ORCHESTRATING AND FIELD MANAGEMENT ASSET REMAINS HIGH. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: WE BELIEVE THAT THIS VIOLENCE COULD BE HALTED IF PRESIDENT MUGABE WISHED IT AND DECREED SO. HIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04389 081603Z DESIRE TO PUSH THE LAND ISSUE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN (REFTEL) ADDS FUEL TO THE FIRE, MAKES A FURTHER DESCENT INTO LAWLESSNESS MORE PROBABLE, AND LENDS CREDENCE TO THE BELIEF BY MANY THAT THIS UGLY ISSUE WILL DRAG ON FOR A LONG TIME TO COME. MEANWHILE, THE LIST OF VICTIMS GROWS, AS DOES THE PUBLIC'S SENSE OF FRUSTRATION AND HELPLESSNESS. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >