ZIMBABWE/SOUTH AFRICA TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004319 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/10 TAGS: PREL ZI PGOV EAGR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE/SOUTH AFRICA TALKS CLASSIFIED BY ECON OFFICER MARK PROKOP FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04319 01 OF 02 031647Z REF: HARARE 4317 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE AUGUST 2 ZIMBABWE/SOUTH AFRICA REGULAR BIANNUAL SUMMIT FOCUSED LARGELY ON BILATERAL ECONOMIC ISSUES, MBEKI'S AFRICAN RENAISSANCE PLAN AND ISSUES OF LAND AND LAWLESSNESS. THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINED THAT THE WAR VETERANS' ACTIONS CONSTITUTED A DEMONSTRATION, BUT OCCUPIED FARMS WILL NOT AUTOMATICALLY BE ALLOCATED TO THEM. INSTEAD THE GOZ HAS STRUCTURES AND A PLAN, ACCORDING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE, AIMED AT ENSURING THAT THE LAND ACQUISITION PROCESS IS AS DIVERSE AND EQUITABLE AS POSSIBLE. IN THE NEAR FUTURE THE WAR VETS WILL BE REMOVED FROM FARMS THAT ARE NOT LISTED, MUGABE TOLD HIS SOUTH AFRICAN COUNTERPART. HE APOLOGIZED TO MBEKI FOR THE LOSS OF LIFE DURING THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD ON THE FARMS, NOTING THAT BOTH SIDES SHARED BLAME FOR IT. THE SOUTH AFRICANS SEEMED PLEASED WITH THEIR MEETINGS HERE, AND CONSCIOUS OF NOT APPEARING TO BE THE REGIONAL HEAVY. THEY TOOK THE ZIMBABWEANS EXPLANATIONS AND RATIONALIZATIONS FOR THE LAWLESSNESS, AT LEAST PUBLICLY, AT FACE VALUE. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) ON AUGUST 3 THE CHARGE CALLED ON VICTOR MDITSHWA, SOUTH AFRICAN DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER, TO GET A READOUT ON THE VISIT ON AUGUST 2 OF A SENIOR GOVERNMENT DELEGATION FROM SOUTH AFRICA, LED BY PRESIDENT MBEKI. THE GROUP INCLUDED THE MINISTERS OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, FINANCE, TRADE, AGRICULTURE, AND MINERALS AND ENERGY, AS WELL AS THE GOVERNOR GENERAL OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN RESERVE BANK, THE DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE MINISTRY OF TRADE, AND DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE CHIKANE. THE ZIMBABWEAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN HEADS OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04319 01 OF 02 031647Z STATE MEET REGULARLY ON A BIANNUAL BASIS; THEIR LAST MEETING TOOK PLACE IN PRETORIA IN FEBRUARY. A WEEK EARLIER SOUTH AFRICAN MINISTER OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY ALEC ERWIN HAD VISITED HARARE TO MEET HIS NEW COUNTERPART, NKOSANA MOYO, AND BRIEF HIM ON THE PROCESS OF BILATERAL ECONOMIC INTERACTION AS WELL AS THE SADC TRADE PROTOCOL. ¶3. (C) WE WERE TOLD THAT THE TWO LEADERS HAD OVER A TWO-HOUR ONE-ON-ONE DISCUSSION COVERING A RANGE OF TOPICS, ALTHOUGH NONE IN GREAT DEPTH. TOPICS INCLUDED THE FUEL CRISIS, THE ELECTRICITY BILL AND THE GENERAL STATUS OF THE ECONOMY PARTICULARLY THE MILLENIUM ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAM. THEY REFLECTED ON REGIONAL, CONTINENTAL AND GLOBAL ISSUES. MBEKI VIGOROUSLY FLOGGED HIS AFRICAN RECOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT PLAN, STATING THAT ZIMBABWE AND THE SADC COUNTRIES WERE ALL STRATEGIC PARTNERS IN ITS EXECUTION. THE MINISTERS ALSO MET THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN SIMILARLY RESTRICTED CIRCUMSTANCES. THE TALKS WERE A PRELIMINARY ENCOUNTER AND THE MINISTERIAL TEAMS (TO WHICH THE TWO GOVERNMENTS ARE REFERRING AS THE STANDING OMMITTEE) WOULD BE LOOKING TO MEET AGAIN SOON AFTE THIS COMING WEEKEND'S WINDHOEK SUMMIT PROVIDINGTHE CHANCE TO RE- ENGAGE IN MORE DETAIL. ¶4. C) THE SOUTH AFRICANS' THEME HAD BEEN THAT THE TWOCOUNTRIES MUST EITHER SWIM TOGETHER IN THE REGIONOR SINK TOGETHER. THEY WERE STRUCK BY A MORE FLEIBLE AND POSITIVE APPROACH BY THE POST-ELECTION ANU-PF GOVERNMENT. ACCORDING TO MDITSHWA THERE PPEARED TO BE A WILLINGNESS (AT LAST) TO FACE UP T MAKING DIFFICULT DECISIONS, PARTICULARLY ON THE CONOMIC ISSUES (MBEKI REPORTEDLY TOLD ZIMBABWEANMINISTER MAKONI AND MOYO THAT IN THIS RESPECT THY MUST HELP THEIR PRESIDENT TO THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04319 01 OF 02 031647Z FULLEST). ITWAS ALSO ENCOURAGING, TO THE SOUTH AFRICANS, THAT THE LAW AND ORDER ISSUE WAS BEING ADDRESSED, WITH PLANS FOR THE WAR VETERANS TO BE MOVED OFF NON-LISTED FARMS WITHIN A MONTH. MUGABE SPECIFICALLY STATED THAT THE VETS WOULD COME OFF THE FARMS NOT ON THE ACQUISITION LIST, BUT WOULD BE ALLOWED TO REMAIN ON THE LISTED PROPERTIES. BOTH PRESIDENTS AGREED THAT THE LAND ISSUE WAS AN IMPORTANT ONE FOR ZIMBABWE. MUGABE ADDED THAT NOW THAT HIS GOVERNMENT HAD COME UP WITH A LIST OF FARMS TO BE RESETTLED, THE WAR VETS COULD BE DEALT WITH, THOUGH THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PROCESS WERE LEFT UNSTATED. ¶5. (C) MUGABE WENT INTO A DETAILED EXPLANATION OF HOW THE PROCESS WOULD WORK WITH SEVERAL LAYERS OF FAIL SAFE MEASURES AGAINST UNJUST LAND GRABS. ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENT ALSO POINTED OUT THAT THE PLAN WOULD AIM TO BE AS INCLUSIVE AS POSSIBLE. PROVINCIAL LAND ACQUISITION COMMITTEES WOULD IDENTIFY LAND FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION ACCORDING TO TRANSPARENT CRITERIA, WHILE A VERIFYING COMMISSION CHAIRED BY VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA WOULD REVIEW THE LISTS. THE PROPERTIES WOULD BE GAZETTED AND OWNERS WOULD HAVE 30 DAYS WITHIN WHICH TO REGISTER THEIR OBJECTIONS. THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT NOTED THAT OCCUPIED FARMS WILL NOT AUTOMATICALLY BE ALLOCATED TO WAR VETERANS. HE ALSO MADE THE POINT (THAT HE HAS REPEATEDLY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6226 PAGE 01 HARARE 04319 02 OF 02 031647Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EB-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 75E879 031652Z /38 O 031644Z AUG 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6769 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004319 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/10 TAGS: PREL ZI PGOV EAGR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE/SOUTH AFRICA TALKS WITH US) THAT HE CONSIDERS THE WAR VETERANS ACTION TO BE A DEMONSTRATION. THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT TOOK AT FACE VALUE MUGABE'S LINE THAT VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS WAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04319 02 OF 02 031647Z REGRETTABLE, BUT THAT BOTH SIDES SHARED BLAME FOR IT. THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT SAID THAT THE POLICE DID NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO DEAL WITH THE INVADERS AND SENDING IN THE ARMY, WITH NO ABILITY TO NEGOTIATE, AGAINST SEASONED MILITARY CADRES COULD PRODUCE A NASTY OUTCOME. ¶6. (C) THE SOUTH AFRICANS SEEM BROADLY SATISFIED WITH THIS INITIAL RAFT OF MEETINGS. MDITSHWA EXHIBITED THE CLASSIC SOUTH AFRICAN CONCERN NOT TO GIVE ANY IMPRESSION OF DICTATING TO THEIR NEIGHBORS, THOUGH HE HINTED THAT IN THE COURSE OF THESE SUMMITS IT WAS HOPED THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS COULD LEARN SOMETHING FROM SOUTH AFRICA. THIS DOUBTLESS IS THE REASON FOR THEIR CAUTIOUS COMMENTS TO THE MEDIA AT THE JOINT PRESS CONFERENCE AFTERWARDS. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: IN THE PRESIDENTIAL DIALOGUE MBEKI DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE LAID A GLOVE ON MUGABE ON THE TOPIC OF RESPECT FOR THE RULE OF LAW. HE DEFERRED TO HIS SENIOR NEIGHBOR. WHILE MUGABE INTIMATED THAT THE WAR VETS WERE A TOOL TO APPLY PRESSURE ON THE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY, HIS APOLOGY FOR DEATHS NEARING THE 40 COUNT RINGS HOLLOW AND EMPTY TO US. EMBASSY PRETORIA MAY BE ABLE TO GLEAN MORE FROM THEIR CONTACTS, ALTHOUGH ATTENTION WILL NO DOUBT NOW BE FOCUSED ON THE UPCOMING WINDHOEK SADC SUMMIT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >