ZUMA SETS UP WOLPE/MANDELA MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004306 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE USAID FOR GAMBINO E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY ZI SUBJECT: ZUMA SETS UP WOLPE/MANDELA MEETING CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) IN A 8/3 TELCON, SOUTH AFRICAN FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA DEBRIEFED SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE ON HER 8/1 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MANDELA. SHE INDICATED SHE TOLD MANDELA THAT SHE FELT IT WAS HER DUTY TO RAISE WITH MANDELA THE VARIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT THE BURUNDI PROCESS THAT HAD BEEN BROUGHT TO HER ATTENTION BY S/E WOLPE AND OTHERS. MANY OBSERVERS DOUBTED THAT A SIGNED AGREEMENT COULD BE COMPLETED BY AUGUST 28; MOREOVER, SHE HAD RECEIVED INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED TENSIONS ON THE GROUND IN BURUNDI. SHE TOLD MANDELA THAT SHE KNEW THAT WOLPE PLANNED TO SEE THE FORMER PRESIDENT A FEW WEEKS DOWN THE ROAD, BUT IT WAS HER SUGGESTION THAT MANDELA SPEAK WITH WOLPE IMMEDIATELY. THAT WAY, MANDELA COULD DECIDE IF THE PROBLEMS THAT LAY IN THE WAY OF A SIGNED AGREEMENT ON AUGUST 28 COULD BE RESOLVED BY THEN, OR IF IT MIGHT BE BETTER TO CHANGE THE INTENDED SIGNING DATE. ¶2. (C) ZUMA SAID SHE UNDERSCORED WITH MANDELA THE GENERAL PERCEPTION THAT MANDELA HAD BROUGHT THE PROCESS A LONG WAY TOWARD A SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION, AND THAT MOST OBSERVERS STILL BELIEVED AN AGREEMENT WAS ACHIEVABLE BY THE END OF THE YEAR. THERE WERE, HOWEVER, MANY DOUBTS ABOUT THE FEASIBILITY OF AN AUGUST 28 SIGNING CEREMONY. ¶3. (C) THE FOREIGN MINISTER INDICATED THAT MANDELA WAS SURPRISINGLY RECEPTIVE. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HE HAD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04306 031635Z HEARD FROM OTHERS THAT THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES OFTEN SAY 'YES' OUT OF THEIR RESPECT FOR THE FACILITATOR, AND NOT OUT OF CONVICTION. HE SAID THAT HE WOULD BE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN S/E WOLPE'S ASSESSMENT. ¶4. (C) ZUMA CLOSED BY SAYING SHE FELT THAT WOLPE'S SCHEDULED AFTERNOON MEETING WITH MANDELA WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY "TO PUT ALL OF THE CARDS QUITE OPENLY ON THE TABLE." IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >