ZIMBABWE'S IMF RESREP ON THE RELATIONSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004207 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, GRACE SONE USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER STATE PASS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/07 TAGS: EFIN PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S IMF RESREP ON THE RELATIONSHIP AND THE ECONOMY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04207 01 OF 03 311108Z CLASSIFIED BY ECON/COMM OFFICER MARK PROKOP, REASON 1.5 (B),(D) REFS: A) HARARE 2927, B) HARARE 2684, C) HARARE 2081, D) HARARE 4084 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A MEETING ON JULY 28 THE IMF RESREP, ROBERT FRANCO, PROVIDED ECONOFF WITH INFORMATION ON UPCOMING IMF ACTIONS ON ZIMBABWE. FRANCO ALSO SHARED HIS BLEAK OUTLOOK ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY. FOREMOST ON HIS LIST OF CONCERNS WAS: THE GOZ'S VERY POOR BUDGET PERFORMANCE; THREATS TO THE VIABILITY OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMING AND MINING SECTORS (WHICH TOGETHER BRING IN MORE THAN HALF OF ZIMBABWE'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS); AND THE ONGOING HEAD-IN-THE-SAND ATTITUDE OF ZIMBABWE'S SENIOR LEADERSHIP. THE IMF OFFICIAL BELIEVES THAT THINGS WILL GET WORSE ECONOMICALLY OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO, BEFORE THE BOTTOM IS REACHED AND A TURNAROUND SLOWLY ACHIEVED. WHILE FRANCO FERVENTLY HOPES THAT THE HIGHLY RESPECTED NEW MINISTERS OF INDUSTRY AND FINANCE (RESPECTIVELY NKOSONA MOYO AND SIMBA MAKONI) WILL BE GIVEN AUTONOMY AND CLOUT TO EFFECT POSITIVE CHANGE AND INTRODUCE RATIONAL POLICIES, HE IS NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE PRESIDENT OR POLITBURO WILL BESTOW SUCH POWERS. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE IMF'S NEAR TERM SCHEDULE IN ZIMBABWE -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04207 01 OF 03 311108Z ¶2. (C) FRANCO TOLD US THAT THE IMF'S DEPUTY DIRECTOR, STANLEY FISHER, IS CURRENTLY TRAVELING IN AFRICA (HE EXPLAINED THAT THIS WAS NOT "OFFICIAL TRAVEL") AND WOULD BE IN VICTORIA FALLS DURING THE WEEK OF JULY 31. CAPITALIZING ON THIS OPPORTUNITY, THE IMF RESREP HAD SET UP A LUNCH MEETING TO INTRODUCE THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER, SIMBA MAKONI, TO FISHER. FRANCO OPINED THAT THE MESSAGE THE FUND'S DEPUTY DIRECTOR WOULD DELIVER TO MAKONI WOULD BE THE SAME AS THAT RELAYED BY FUND MANAGING DIRECTOR KOEHLER A FEW WEEKS AGO IN MOZAMBIQUE TO THE PREVIOUS FINANCE MINISTER, HERBERT MURERWA. THE MESSAGE DELIVERED IN MAPUTO WAS THAT THE FUND IS WILLING TO WORK WITH ZIMBABWE, BUT THAT MINIMUM CONDITIONS MUST BE ADHERED TO AND COMMITMENT AND PROGRESS ON TARGETS AND POLICIES MUST BE DEMONSTRATED BEFORE A PROGRAM IS AGREED UPON AND MONIES BEGIN TO FLOW. DIALOGUE AND PROMISES NEEDED TO BE BACKED UP BY ACTION AND DEMONSTRABLE RESULTS. FRANCO BELIEVES THAT SUCH A HURDLE WILL PROVE TOO DIFFICULT FOR ZIMBABWE TO OVERCOME UNDER THE CURRENT ZANU-PF LED REGIME. ¶3. FRANCO ALSO INFORMED ECONOFF THAT A SIX MEMBER ARTICLE IV REVIEW TEAM, HEADED BY MR. NEUHAUS, WOULD ARRIVE AUGUST 24. HE REPEATED THAT, CONTRARY TO LOCAL PRESS REPORTS, THE TEAM WAS NOT COMING TO DISCUSS A NEW CREDIT OR THE RESUMPTION OF LENDING. AS HE HAD TOLD US EARLIER IN THE YEAR (REF B),HE FIRMLY BELIEVED THAT A SHADOW PROGRAM OF AT LEAST SIX MONTHS WOULD BE REQUIRED BEFORE A NEW CREDIT COULD BE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04207 01 OF 03 311108Z NEGOTIATED OR PUT FORTH FOR BOARD APPROVAL. THE VISITING TEAM WOULD RESTRICT ITSELF TO EXAMINING ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS OF THE YEAR, ADDING THAT THEY WERE IN FOR A SHOCK WHEN THEY SEE HOW BAD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET ARE. -------------- THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY -------------- ¶4. (C) TURNING TO ECONOMICS, THE RESREP AND ECONOFF COMPARED NOTES ON ZIMBABWE, AND FOUND LITTLE TO DIFFER ON IN OUR DATA AND ASSESSMENTS. BASED ON CUMULATIVE FIGURES THROUGH END-MAY, THE BUDGET DEFICIT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT ABOUT 16 PERCENT AND IS FORECAST TO TOP 20 PERCENT BY YEAR-END. (IN APRIL THE EMBASSY PREDICTED IN REF C THAT THE DEFICIT WOULD EASILY HIT 18-20 PERCENT.) THE FORECAST MEANS THAT THE GOZ WILL HAVE TO FINANCE A 2000 BUDGET DEFICIT OF CLOSE TO ZIM $70 BILLION (OR ABOUT U.S. $1.85 BILLION AT THE OFFICIAL RATE OF Z$38),AN ASTRONOMICAL FIGURE. (ZIMBABWE'S 1999 GDP IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT U.S. $5.6 BILLION.) SUCH FINANCING WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY VERY HIGH STOCK OF TREASURY BILLS, WHICH AT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2252 PAGE 01 HARARE 04207 02 OF 03 311108Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 FMP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /012W -------------- 745A0E 311109Z /38 P 311108Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6722 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY USDOC WASHDC DEPTTREAS WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004207 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, GRACE SONE USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER STATE PASS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/07 TAGS: EFIN PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S IMF RESREP ON THE RELATIONSHIP AND THE ECONOMY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04207 02 OF 03 311108Z THIS TIME IS CLOSE TO ZIM $85 BILLION (AT A CURRENT AVERAGE RATE OF 59 PERCENT). FOUR YEARS AGO THE STOCK OF TREASURY BILLS WAS ZIM $13 BILLION. THE T- BILL FINANCING WILL FURTHER CROWD OUT INVESTMENT BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR, ADD TO INTEREST RATE PRESSURE, AND RESULT IN INCREASED INTEREST PAYMENTS. THIS YEAR'S BUDGET DEFICIT IS ALSO BEING FINANCED BY USE OF THE GOVERNMENT OVERDRAFT AT THE RESERVE BANK, WHICH AT JUNE 23 WAS ZIM $10.6 BILLION COMPARED TO $3.5 BILLION AT JUNE 30, 1999. THE CURRENT OVERDRAFT INTEREST RATE IS 70 PERCENT. ¶5. (C) RESERVE MONEY IS GROWING AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 68.5 PERCENT (A ROUGH GUIDE TO FUTURE INFLATION),AND INFLATION MEASURED BY CHANGES IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IS 58.7 PERCENT (MAY 1999/MAY 2000). USABLE RESERVES OF THE CENTRAL BANK ARE CURRENTLY EQUAL TO JUST A FEW DAYS OF IMPORTS, AND THE STOCK OF EXTERNAL ARREARS ON JUNE 23 WAS U.S. $114.4 MILLION, OF WHICH $37 MILLION IS GOVERNMENT-GUARANTEED DEBT. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE PRIVATE SECTOR ARREARS OF AT LEAST U.S. $225 MILLION, INCLUDING $75 MILLION OF SUPPLIERS' CREDITS. ¶6. (C) WITH REGARD TO THE REAL SECTOR, INVESTMENT, BOTH DOMESTIC AND EXTERNAL, HAS COME TO A STANDSTILL. IN 1999 REAL GDP GROWTH WAS NEGATIVE TO THE TUNE OF ABOUT ONE PERCENT. IN 2000 THE DECLINE IS FORECAST AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT; ON A PER CAPITA BASIS, THE DECLINE IS ABOUT 2.8 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04207 02 OF 03 311108Z THE PEGGING OF THE ZIMBABWE DOLLAR SINCE JANUARY 1999 AT THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE OF U.S. $1 EQUALS ZIM $38 HAS SEVERELY DISTORTED FINANCIAL MARKETS AND FUNDS FLOWS, AND ALONG WITH DECLINING EXPORTS HAS CAUSED THE HARD CURRENCY SHORTAGE. THE OFFICIAL RATE POSES A LIFE-THREAT TO THE VIABILITY OF EXPORTERS WHO ARE FORCED TO REMIT SOME OR ALL OF THEIR PROCEEDS TO THE RESERVE BANK AT THE DIRECTED RATE (GOLD PRODUCERS 100 PERCENT, SEE REF D, AND TOBACCO GROWERS, 25 PERCENT). FRANCO AGREED WITH ECONOFF'S EVALUATION THAT MOVEMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT AND THE NEW MINISTERS ON THE EXCHANGE RATE ISSUE WILL BE THE FIRST ACID TEST OF THE WILL AND ABILITY OF THE RULING PARTY TO BECOME PART OF THE SOLUTION TO ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC ILLS. -------------- ARREARS TO THE IFI'S -------------- ¶7. (C) AS OF JULY 28 ZIMBABWE'S ARREARS TO THE WORLD BANK STOOD AT U.S. $28 MILLION. FRANCO HAS SEEN NO REAL EFFORT TO DATE BY THE GOZ TO PAY THE ARREARS. THE WORLD BANK RESREP "ONCE THE MOST OPTIMISTIC OF FELLOWS" ACCORDING TO FRANCO, HAD HIMSELF BEGUN TO LOSE HEART IN ZIMBABWE, TIRED OF CONSISTENTLY HAVING PROMISES MADE TO HIM BROKEN. ¶8. (C) WHILE ZIMBABWE HAS REMAINED CURRENT IN ITS PAYMENTS TO THE IMF, HE BELIEVES THIS WILL SOON CHANGE. ON JULY 28 ZIMBABWE OWED THE FUND U.S. $6.5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04207 02 OF 03 311108Z MILLION, AND THE RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR HAD TOLD HIM THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THAT IT WOULD BE UNABLE TO MAKE THE PAYMENT ON SCHEDULE. THE GOVERNOR PROMISED HIS BEST EFFORTS TO MAKE THE PAYMENT THE WEEK OF JULY 31, BUT COULD MAKE NO GUARANTEES. FRANCO DESCRIBED THE DEVELOPMENT AS "SUICIDAL." ¶9. (C) THE RESREP ALSO INFORMED US THAT EVEN IF THIS RELATIVELY SMALL PAYMENT IS MADE, ZIMBABWE WILL FACE A FUND PAYMENT OF U.S. $55 MILLION IN AUGUST. FRANCO JUST SHOOK HIS HEAD AT THIS PROSPECT, WRYLY OBSERVING THAT THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARTICLE IV AUDIT TEAM WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH ZIMBABWE'S DEFAULT ON ITS IMF DEBT. REVEALING FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT HIS NEXT AND LIKELY FINAL ASSIGNMENT BEFORE RETIREMENT WILL BE OUAGADOUGOU (FRANCO WILL BE OPENING A NEW FUND OFFICE THERE BY YEAR END),THE 27 YEAR IMF-VETERAN COMMENTED THAT EVEN THOUGH OUAGADOUGOU IS A ROUGH ASSIGNMENT, CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE BETTER THERE THAN WHAT HARARE LOOKS SET TO BECOME IN THE NEAR FUTURE. -------------- COMMENT -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2251 PAGE 01 HARARE 04207 03 OF 03 311108Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 USIE-00 FMP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /012W -------------- 745A16 311108Z /38 P 311108Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6723 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY USDOC WASHDC DEPTTREAS WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004207 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS, EB/IFD/ODF, EB/TPP/ODC TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, GRACE SONE USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER STATE PASS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/07 TAGS: EFIN PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S IMF RESREP ON THE RELATIONSHIP AND THE ECONOMY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04207 03 OF 03 311108Z ¶10. (C) FRANCO, CLEARLY STYMIED AND DISAPPOINTED BY THE RESULTS OF HIS TENURE IN ZIMBABWE, IS NOT AT THE MOMENT ONE OF ITS BIGGEST FANS. HOWEVER, HIS AND THE FUND'S ASSESSMENT OF THE DISMAL FIRST-HALF-OF-THE- YEAR PERFORMANCE NUMBERS AGREE WITH OUR OWN ECONOMIC EVALUATION AND REPORTING. THE DEBT HOLE THE COUNTRY HAS DUG ITSELF IS EXTREMELY DEEP AND WILL TAKE AT A MINIMUM TWO TO THREE YEARS TO CLIMB OUT OF UNDER THE BEST OF CIRCUNSTANCES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE NEW INDUSTRY AND FINANCE MINISTERS WILL HAVE THE AUTONOMY, AND STOMACH TO MAKE THE TOUGH DECISIONS NECESSARY. EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT BOTH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS POLITBURO ARE LOATH TO MAKE ANY CONCESSION ON POWER, PARTICULARLY TO OUTSIDERS, AS THESE MINISTERS STILL CLEARLY ARE. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >