S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004088

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE

AID FOR GAMBINO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI
ON DRC
CONFIDENTIAL


PAGE 02 HARARE 04088 01 OF 03 261401Z

REF: LUSAKA 3220

CLASSIFIED BY GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE.
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD
WOLPE MET WITH MFA UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID
HAMADZIRIPI JULY 19 ON THE SITUATION IN THE CONGO.
WOLPE EXPRESSED US CONCERN THAT THE LUSAKA ACCORDS WERE
ABOUT TO UNRAVEL, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF KABILA'S
CONTINUING RESISTANCE TO MASIRE'S ROLE AS FACILITATOR.
HAMADZIRIPI AGREED, AND SAID THAT HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO
DEVELOP MODALITIES FOR REVIVING LUSAKA, INCLUDING A
MEMORANDUM SPELLING OUT THE DUTIES OF THE FACILITATOR.
HE INFORMED WOLPE THAT MASIRE HAD TOLD MUGABE DURING
THEIR LAST MEETING THAT HE WAS FRUSTRATED AND READY TO
STEP DOWN. MUGABE HAD ENCOURAGED HIM TO PERSEVERE.
END SUMMARY.

MASIRE
--------------


2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE,
ACCOMPANIED BY AF SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND
POLOFF, MET WITH MFA UNDERSECRETARY DAVID HAMADZIRIPI
JULY 19. HAMADZIRIPI INFORMED WOLPE THAT THERE HAD BEEN
A "VERY SERIOUS" DISCUSSION ON THE CONGO AT THE OAU
MEETING IN LOME, AND THAT ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA HAD
WRITTEN TO THE LUSAKA SIGNATORIES BEFORE THE OAU MEETING
PROPOSING A DRC HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT (REFTEL).
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3. (C) HAMADZIRIPI EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE
CONGOLESE REBELS WERE "SPLITTING INTO SMITHEREENS,"
WHICH COULD DERAIL THE LUSAKA PROCESS. WOLPE RESPONDED
THAT THIS IS ONLY ONE OF MANY THREATS TO LUSAKA, THE
FOREMOST OF WHICH IS KABILA'S RESISTANCE TO MASIRE'S
CONTINUED PARTICIPATION AS FACILITATOR -- A FIG LEAF FOR
HIS FEAR OF THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. HE NOTED WITH
CONCERN THAT, IN A RECENT CONVERSATION WITH SEVERAL U.S.
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT NUJOMA HAD SAID
THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE BACKING OF KABILA'S
SOUTHERN ALLIES. HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT, DURING
HIS MOST RECENT MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, MASIRE
HAD SAID "I AM GIVING UP" (I.E., PLANNING TO STEP DOWN
AS FACILITATOR). MUGABE HAD URGED HIM NOT TO GIVE UP
TOO EASILY; "WE WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT YOU." HOWEVER,
HE HAD CANDIDLY TOLD MASIRE THAT, GIVEN THAT THE LUSAKA
PROCESS WAS AN AFRICAN INITIATIVE, HE WOULD PREFER TO
SEE MASIRE HAVE AFRICAN ADVISORS. HAMADZIRIPI ADDED
PARENTHETICALLY THAT MASIRE'S OFFICE WAS RUN BY A
CANADIAN AND A BRITON, WITH THE RECENT ADDITION OF A
ZAMBIAN.


4. (C) WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT SEVERAL PROMINENT
FRENCH SPEAKERS HAD MADE THEMSELVES AVAILABLE TO ASSIST
MASIRE, INCLUDING SPECIAL ENVOY FOR LA FRANCOPHONIE
HASSAN LABATT, A MAURITANIAN; FORMER BENIN MINISTER
OF PLANNING TEVOERDJERE, DON MATTEO ZUPPI OF SANT
EGIDIO; A. T. TOURE; AND OULD ABDALLAH, WHO IS CURRENTLY
WITH THE GLOBAL COALITION FOR AFRICA. SUCH AN
ARRANGEMENT COULD PROVIDE A FACE-SAVING WAY FOR KABILA
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PAGE 04 HARARE 04088 01 OF 03 261401Z
TO REVERSE HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE. LABATT, WOLPE SAID,
HAD AGREED TO BE MASIRE'S MAN-ON-THE-GROUND IN KINSHASA.


5. (C) HAMADZIRIPI NOTED THAT KABILA HAD RECENTLY
REITERATED HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE, SAYING THAT HE
ACTED LIKE A "GOVERNOR-GENERAL." HE EXPRESSED CONCERN
THAT IT WAS POSSIBLE THAT "IF WE CAN RETAIN HIM, HIS
RELATIONS WITH THE DRC GOVERNMENT HAVE SUNK SO LOW THAT
HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DO ANYTHING." HAMADZIRIPI SAID
THAT HE WAS AWARE THAT ACCEDING TO THE REMOVAL OF KABILA
WOULD SEND THE WRONG SIGNAL, BUT THE PARTIES ARE IN A
BIND. THE SEEDS OF A SOLUTION, HE TOLD WOLPE, COULD
INCLUDE PRESSING THE DRC GOVERNMENT TO CONFIRM ITS
COMMITMENT TO THE LUSAKA-SANCTIONED INTER-CONGOLESE
DIALOGUE AND SPELLING OUT THE RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE
FACILITATOR MORE CLEARLY.


6. (C) HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT HIS OWN FAVORED
COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE TO USE THE OAU COUNCIL OF
MINISTERS' STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR MASIRE AS THE BASIS
FOR AN AFRICAN PUSH TO RETAIN MASIRE. THE NEXT STEP

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01
NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W
-------------- 72A266 261401Z /49
O 260835Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6692
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004088

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE

AID FOR GAMBINO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10

TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 04088 02 OF 03 261401Z
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI
ON DRC

WOULD BE TO SPELL OUT HOW HE WILL CARRY OUT HIS
FUNCTIONS IN A DOCUMENT THAT COULD PERHAPS BE TERMED A
"TECHNICAL ARRANGEMENT." HAMADZIRIPI HAS BEEN WORKING
ON SUCH A DOCUMENT BUT HAS NOT MADE MUCH RECENT PROGRESS
DUE TO HIS TRAVELS. THIS WOULD HELP CLARIFY WHETHER
KABILA IS "JUST MAD AT MASIRE" OR OPPOSED TO A NATIONAL
DIALOGUE. HAMADZIRIPI SAID HE BELIEVED THE FORMER WAS
THE CASE. PRENDERGAST AND WOLPE NOTED THAT IT WOULD BE
IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN CARRYING OUT THIS
EFFORT IN ORDER TO AVOID CREATING THE IMPRESSION THAT
THE ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR WAS BEING REDEFINED AS A
CONCESSION TO KABILA. HAMADZIRIPI REPLIED THAT HE DID
NOT BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM BECAUSE
LUSAKA IS VAGUE ON THE ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR. SINCE
LUSAKA IS THE "PROPERTY" OF THE SIGNATORIES AND NOT OF
THE FACILITATOR, THEY WOULD BE WITHIN THEIR RIGHTS TO
FURTHER SPELL OUT THE FACILITATOR'S ROLE.


7. (C) WOLPE COMMENTED THAT KABILA FEELS THREATENED BY
THE RISK TO HIS AUTHORITY THAT A FACILITATOR BRINGS, A
PROBLEM THAT ALSO AROSE WITH PRESIDENT BUYOYA IN
BURUNDI. KABILA INCORRECTLY SEES HIMSELF IN A SITUATION
IN WHICH HE CAN BE OUTVOTED. A FACILITATOR, WOLPE
NOTED, CAN DECIDE WHO COMES TO THE TABLE, BUT CANNOT
IMPOSE A CERTAIN OUTCOME. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED THAT THE
CONFUSION SURROUNDING THE POWERS OF THE FACILITATOR
"GOES TO THE HEART OF THE PROBLEM" AND POINTS TO THE
NEED TO CLARIFY THE FACILITATOR'S ROLE.
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FIGHTING IN THE CONGO
--------------


8. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT RECENT FIGHTING
IN EQUATEUR. HE SAID HE HAD CONTINUOUSLY
WARNED REBEL LEADER BEMBA, WHO CONSULTS WITH HIM
FREQUENTLY, NOT TO ADVANCE BEYOND THE KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE
LINE, AND PARTICULARLY NOT TO MOVE ON MBANDAKA. BEMBA
HAD COUNTERED THAT KABILA'S BEHAVIOR IS MAKING THIS
DIFFICULT. WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER BEMBA MOVED BACK TO THE CEASE-FIRE LINE AS
HE CLAIMS TO HAVE DONE IN RESPONSE TO WOLPE'S DEMARCHES
A FEW WEEKS PREVIOUS. HOWEVER, HE ASSERTED, IT IS
APPARENT THAT RECENT FIGHTING WAS INITIATED BY
KABILA. PRENDERGAST SAID THAT IT IS TIME FOR THE GOZ TO
REDUCE THE LEVEL OF HOSTILITIES BY LEANING A LOT HARDER
ON ITS CONGOLESE ALLY. HAMADZIRIPI NOTED THAT, AT THE JMC
MEETING IN KAMPALA LAST OCTOBER, THE VARIOUS PARTIES HAD
BEEN ASKED TO PLOT THEIR FORWARD LINES. THEY WERE ASKED
TO DO SO AGAIN IN APRIL OF THIS YEAR, AND "YOU WOULD BE
SURPRISED BY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OCTOBER AND
APRIL POSITIONS." IN SOME CASES, THE LINE HAD MOVED BY
400 KILOMETERS. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT "THE CONGOLESE
HAVE BEEN A BIT ADVENTUROUS," ATTACKING, THEN FLEEING,
THEREBY EXPOSING ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS TO DANGER. HAMADZIRIPI
ADDED THAT HE HAD BEEN QUITE CONCERNED TO READ REPORTS OF
THE SERIOUS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN AREAS OF CONFLICT.
WOLPE NOTED THAT THERE HAVE BEEN HUGE REFUGEE FLOWS INTO
BRAZZAVILLE.

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PAGE 04 HARARE 04088 02 OF 03 261401Z
KABILA'S RELATIONS WITH THE GOZ
--------------


9. (C) HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT THE GOZ DID NOT
AGREE WITH KABILA'S DECISION TO APPOINT A CONSTITUENT
ASSEMBLY. MUGABE HAD ASKED KABILA, "HOW CAN YOU HAVE A
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY WHEN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ARE
UNDER OCCUPATION?" HIS OWN SUSPICION, HAMADZIRIPI SAID,
WAS THAT KABILA WAS TRYING TO WIDEN HIS BASE BY BRINGING
PEOPLE INTO THE ASSEMBLY.


10. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S
CONTINUED INTRANSIGENCE ON A NUMBER OF ISSUES, INCLUDING
THE FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR AND MONUC ACCESS. HAMADZIRIPI
SAID THAT THE GOZ SHARES THESE CONCERNS. HIS OWN VIEW
IS THAT THE GOZ NEEDS TO SEND A MESSAGE TO KABILA THAT
THE ZIMBABWEAN FORCES WILL NOT BE THERE FOREVER.
WITHDRAWING SOME TROOPS WOULD BE A WAY TO SEND THAT
MESSAGE. HOWEVER, HE NOTED THAT THIS APPROACH MAY BE
UNPALATABLE TO (GOZ) POLITICIANS. WOLPE OBSERVED THAT
KABILA HAS IN THE PAST RESPONDED ONLY WHEN CONFRONTED
WITH SPECIFIC THREATS. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED THAT "IT
SHOULDN'T BE THAT WAY BUT THAT'S THE CASE." AN

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01
NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W
-------------- 72A28A 261402Z /49
O 260835Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6693
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004088

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE

AID FOR GAMBINO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI
ON DRC
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 04088 03 OF 03 261402Z

ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
KABILA AND THE GOZ, HE NOTED, IS THAT THE DRC HAS NO
BUREAUCRATIC STRUCTURES; ONLY KABILA AND HIS MINISTERS
CAN SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT.

MONUC DEPLOYMENT
--------------


11. (C) WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT CONSIDERATION WAS
BEING GIVEN TO AN INITIAL, SEPARATE DEPLOYMENT OF
MONUC FORCES IN KISANGANI. THIS MAY REQUIRE MODIFYING
THE UN RESOLUTION, BUT IT WOULD DEMONSTRATE FORWARD
MOVEMENT. HAMADZIRIPI RESPONDED POSITIVELY, ALTHOUGH
NOTING THAT THE GOZ HAD "MAYBE A FEW CONCERNS" ABOUT
FOCUSING ON KISANGANI.


12. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S
RELUCTANCE TO ALLOW MONUC ACCESS TO CERTAIN AREAS,
SUCH AS MBANDAKA, AND HIS INSISTENCE ON CLEARING
EVERY FLIGHT IN THE CONGO. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED. IN A
RECENT MEETING BETWEEN THE GOZ AND UN PEACEKEEPING
OFFICIALS, HE RECALLED, IT WAS AGREED THAT ZIMBABWE
SHOULD "SAY LESS AND LESS" ABOUT ITS WILLINGNESS TO
WITHDRAW BASED ON MONUC DEPLOYMENT , SINCE KABILA COULD
SEE THIS LACK OF SUPPORT AS A REASON TO STONEWALL ON
IMPLEMENTING THE AGREEMENT, THUS REMOVING THE TRIGGER
FOR ZIMBABWE'S EXIT. PRESIDENT MUGABE, HAMADZIRIPI
TOLD WOLPE, HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT "WHATEVER WE CAN
DO TO HASTEN THE DAY MONUC WILL DEPLOY WE WILL DO.
WE WANT TO COOPERATE WITH THE UN."
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VOLUNTARY DDRR
--------------


13. (C) HAMADZIRIPI URGED THE USG TO SHARE THE NON-
PAPER ON DDRR WITH THE UGANDANS AND RWANDANS, SINCE
"SOME POSITIONS THEY ARE PUSHING ARE UNREALISTIC." IT
IS NECESSARY TO REVIVE THIS ISSUE. PRENDERGAST NOTED
THAT THE USG'S PROPOSED APPROACH STRESSES VOLUNTARY
DEMOBILIZATION. HAMADZIRIPI CONCURRED THAT THE EFFORT
WOULD NOT BE A SUCCESS IF THE SEQUENCING DID NOT PLACE
VOLUNTARY DDRR BEFORE COERCIVE. HE NOTED THAT THE GOZ
WANTS THE JMC GUIDELINES ENDORSED BY THE POLITICAL
COMMITTEE AT THE FIRST MEETING PUT INTO PRACTICE. IN
ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL, HAMADZIRIPI CONTINUED, THE
EFFORT SHOULD NOT BE CONFINED TO THE SIGNATORIES;
RATHER, IT SHOULD BE INTERNATIONALIZED. THE SADC REGION
SHOULD BE BROUGHT IN. THE VICTORIA FALLS SUMMIT ON
GOOD FRIDAY MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT WAS NOT PRACTICAL
TO INCLUDE FORCIBLE DISARMAMENT IN THE FIRST INSTANCE.
WOLPE NOTED THAT RWANDAN PRESIDENT KAGAME HAD RECENTLY
TOLD THE BRITISH THAT HE IS NOT PUSHING FOR ALL
CULPRITS TO BE TRACKED DOWN. THEY ARE PREPARED
FOR INTERNATIONAL MECHANISMS FOR INTEGRATION OR
RESETTLEMENT. WOLPE SAID THAT, PURSUANT TO THE JMC, IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM
POLITICAL DISAGREEMENTS TO A TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT THAT
WOULD LAY OUT THE WAY FORWARD ON VOLUNTARY DDRR.
HAMADZIRIPI RESPONDED THAT THE JMC IS SUPPOSED TO LOOK
AT FINANCIAL AND MANPOWER ISSUES, AND A DISCUSSION ON
THIS HAS BEGUN. THE UGANDANS AND RWANDANS ARE
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RELATIVELY HAPPY WITH THIS.

COMMENT
--------------


14. (C) HAMADZIRIPI PROVIDED SOME IMPORTANT IDEAS FOR
MOVING THE LUSAKA PROCESS FORWARD. FOR EXAMPLE, SOME
SPECIFIC "TECHNICAL ARRANGEMENTS" DEFINING THE TERMS OF THE
FACILITATION MIGHT ALLOW SIGNATORIES TO BECOME THE ENFORCER
OF THE PROCESS LEADING TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, RATHER
THAN LEAVING THIS TO MASIRE HIMSELF, WHO HAS NO LEVERAGE.
THE IDEA THAT ZIMBABWE MIGHT THREATEN KABILA WITH TROOP
WITHDRAWALS IF HE DOES NOT COMPLY WITH LUSAKA IS ALSO A
GOOD ONE, SOMETHING THE TRAVELING PARTY HAS PURSUED WITH
UGANDA AND RWANDA AS A BASIS FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE GOZ AS
WELL AS THE QUINTET MEETING IDEA.


15. (U) S/E WOLPE HAS CLEARED ON THIS CABLE.

IRVING

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>