S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004088 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE AID FOR GAMBINO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI ON DRC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04088 01 OF 03 261401Z REF: LUSAKA 3220 CLASSIFIED BY GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE MET WITH MFA UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID HAMADZIRIPI JULY 19 ON THE SITUATION IN THE CONGO. WOLPE EXPRESSED US CONCERN THAT THE LUSAKA ACCORDS WERE ABOUT TO UNRAVEL, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF KABILA'S CONTINUING RESISTANCE TO MASIRE'S ROLE AS FACILITATOR. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED, AND SAID THAT HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP MODALITIES FOR REVIVING LUSAKA, INCLUDING A MEMORANDUM SPELLING OUT THE DUTIES OF THE FACILITATOR. HE INFORMED WOLPE THAT MASIRE HAD TOLD MUGABE DURING THEIR LAST MEETING THAT HE WAS FRUSTRATED AND READY TO STEP DOWN. MUGABE HAD ENCOURAGED HIM TO PERSEVERE. END SUMMARY. MASIRE -------------- ¶2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE, ACCOMPANIED BY AF SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND POLOFF, MET WITH MFA UNDERSECRETARY DAVID HAMADZIRIPI JULY 19. HAMADZIRIPI INFORMED WOLPE THAT THERE HAD BEEN A "VERY SERIOUS" DISCUSSION ON THE CONGO AT THE OAU MEETING IN LOME, AND THAT ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA HAD WRITTEN TO THE LUSAKA SIGNATORIES BEFORE THE OAU MEETING PROPOSING A DRC HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT (REFTEL). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04088 01 OF 03 261401Z ¶3. (C) HAMADZIRIPI EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE CONGOLESE REBELS WERE "SPLITTING INTO SMITHEREENS," WHICH COULD DERAIL THE LUSAKA PROCESS. WOLPE RESPONDED THAT THIS IS ONLY ONE OF MANY THREATS TO LUSAKA, THE FOREMOST OF WHICH IS KABILA'S RESISTANCE TO MASIRE'S CONTINUED PARTICIPATION AS FACILITATOR -- A FIG LEAF FOR HIS FEAR OF THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. HE NOTED WITH CONCERN THAT, IN A RECENT CONVERSATION WITH SEVERAL U.S. MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT NUJOMA HAD SAID THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE BACKING OF KABILA'S SOUTHERN ALLIES. HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT, DURING HIS MOST RECENT MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, MASIRE HAD SAID "I AM GIVING UP" (I.E., PLANNING TO STEP DOWN AS FACILITATOR). MUGABE HAD URGED HIM NOT TO GIVE UP TOO EASILY; "WE WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT YOU." HOWEVER, HE HAD CANDIDLY TOLD MASIRE THAT, GIVEN THAT THE LUSAKA PROCESS WAS AN AFRICAN INITIATIVE, HE WOULD PREFER TO SEE MASIRE HAVE AFRICAN ADVISORS. HAMADZIRIPI ADDED PARENTHETICALLY THAT MASIRE'S OFFICE WAS RUN BY A CANADIAN AND A BRITON, WITH THE RECENT ADDITION OF A ZAMBIAN. ¶4. (C) WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT SEVERAL PROMINENT FRENCH SPEAKERS HAD MADE THEMSELVES AVAILABLE TO ASSIST MASIRE, INCLUDING SPECIAL ENVOY FOR LA FRANCOPHONIE HASSAN LABATT, A MAURITANIAN; FORMER BENIN MINISTER OF PLANNING TEVOERDJERE, DON MATTEO ZUPPI OF SANT EGIDIO; A. T. TOURE; AND OULD ABDALLAH, WHO IS CURRENTLY WITH THE GLOBAL COALITION FOR AFRICA. SUCH AN ARRANGEMENT COULD PROVIDE A FACE-SAVING WAY FOR KABILA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04088 01 OF 03 261401Z TO REVERSE HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE. LABATT, WOLPE SAID, HAD AGREED TO BE MASIRE'S MAN-ON-THE-GROUND IN KINSHASA. ¶5. (C) HAMADZIRIPI NOTED THAT KABILA HAD RECENTLY REITERATED HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE, SAYING THAT HE ACTED LIKE A "GOVERNOR-GENERAL." HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT IT WAS POSSIBLE THAT "IF WE CAN RETAIN HIM, HIS RELATIONS WITH THE DRC GOVERNMENT HAVE SUNK SO LOW THAT HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DO ANYTHING." HAMADZIRIPI SAID THAT HE WAS AWARE THAT ACCEDING TO THE REMOVAL OF KABILA WOULD SEND THE WRONG SIGNAL, BUT THE PARTIES ARE IN A BIND. THE SEEDS OF A SOLUTION, HE TOLD WOLPE, COULD INCLUDE PRESSING THE DRC GOVERNMENT TO CONFIRM ITS COMMITMENT TO THE LUSAKA-SANCTIONED INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE AND SPELLING OUT THE RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE FACILITATOR MORE CLEARLY. ¶6. (C) HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT HIS OWN FAVORED COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE TO USE THE OAU COUNCIL OF MINISTERS' STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR MASIRE AS THE BASIS FOR AN AFRICAN PUSH TO RETAIN MASIRE. THE NEXT STEP CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8973 PAGE 01 HARARE 04088 02 OF 03 261401Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 72A266 261401Z /49 O 260835Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6692 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004088 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE AID FOR GAMBINO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04088 02 OF 03 261401Z SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI ON DRC WOULD BE TO SPELL OUT HOW HE WILL CARRY OUT HIS FUNCTIONS IN A DOCUMENT THAT COULD PERHAPS BE TERMED A "TECHNICAL ARRANGEMENT." HAMADZIRIPI HAS BEEN WORKING ON SUCH A DOCUMENT BUT HAS NOT MADE MUCH RECENT PROGRESS DUE TO HIS TRAVELS. THIS WOULD HELP CLARIFY WHETHER KABILA IS "JUST MAD AT MASIRE" OR OPPOSED TO A NATIONAL DIALOGUE. HAMADZIRIPI SAID HE BELIEVED THE FORMER WAS THE CASE. PRENDERGAST AND WOLPE NOTED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN CARRYING OUT THIS EFFORT IN ORDER TO AVOID CREATING THE IMPRESSION THAT THE ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR WAS BEING REDEFINED AS A CONCESSION TO KABILA. HAMADZIRIPI REPLIED THAT HE DID NOT BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM BECAUSE LUSAKA IS VAGUE ON THE ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR. SINCE LUSAKA IS THE "PROPERTY" OF THE SIGNATORIES AND NOT OF THE FACILITATOR, THEY WOULD BE WITHIN THEIR RIGHTS TO FURTHER SPELL OUT THE FACILITATOR'S ROLE. ¶7. (C) WOLPE COMMENTED THAT KABILA FEELS THREATENED BY THE RISK TO HIS AUTHORITY THAT A FACILITATOR BRINGS, A PROBLEM THAT ALSO AROSE WITH PRESIDENT BUYOYA IN BURUNDI. KABILA INCORRECTLY SEES HIMSELF IN A SITUATION IN WHICH HE CAN BE OUTVOTED. A FACILITATOR, WOLPE NOTED, CAN DECIDE WHO COMES TO THE TABLE, BUT CANNOT IMPOSE A CERTAIN OUTCOME. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED THAT THE CONFUSION SURROUNDING THE POWERS OF THE FACILITATOR "GOES TO THE HEART OF THE PROBLEM" AND POINTS TO THE NEED TO CLARIFY THE FACILITATOR'S ROLE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04088 02 OF 03 261401Z FIGHTING IN THE CONGO -------------- ¶8. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT RECENT FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR. HE SAID HE HAD CONTINUOUSLY WARNED REBEL LEADER BEMBA, WHO CONSULTS WITH HIM FREQUENTLY, NOT TO ADVANCE BEYOND THE KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE LINE, AND PARTICULARLY NOT TO MOVE ON MBANDAKA. BEMBA HAD COUNTERED THAT KABILA'S BEHAVIOR IS MAKING THIS DIFFICULT. WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER BEMBA MOVED BACK TO THE CEASE-FIRE LINE AS HE CLAIMS TO HAVE DONE IN RESPONSE TO WOLPE'S DEMARCHES A FEW WEEKS PREVIOUS. HOWEVER, HE ASSERTED, IT IS APPARENT THAT RECENT FIGHTING WAS INITIATED BY KABILA. PRENDERGAST SAID THAT IT IS TIME FOR THE GOZ TO REDUCE THE LEVEL OF HOSTILITIES BY LEANING A LOT HARDER ON ITS CONGOLESE ALLY. HAMADZIRIPI NOTED THAT, AT THE JMC MEETING IN KAMPALA LAST OCTOBER, THE VARIOUS PARTIES HAD BEEN ASKED TO PLOT THEIR FORWARD LINES. THEY WERE ASKED TO DO SO AGAIN IN APRIL OF THIS YEAR, AND "YOU WOULD BE SURPRISED BY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OCTOBER AND APRIL POSITIONS." IN SOME CASES, THE LINE HAD MOVED BY 400 KILOMETERS. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT "THE CONGOLESE HAVE BEEN A BIT ADVENTUROUS," ATTACKING, THEN FLEEING, THEREBY EXPOSING ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS TO DANGER. HAMADZIRIPI ADDED THAT HE HAD BEEN QUITE CONCERNED TO READ REPORTS OF THE SERIOUS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN AREAS OF CONFLICT. WOLPE NOTED THAT THERE HAVE BEEN HUGE REFUGEE FLOWS INTO BRAZZAVILLE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04088 02 OF 03 261401Z KABILA'S RELATIONS WITH THE GOZ -------------- ¶9. (C) HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT THE GOZ DID NOT AGREE WITH KABILA'S DECISION TO APPOINT A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY. MUGABE HAD ASKED KABILA, "HOW CAN YOU HAVE A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY WHEN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ARE UNDER OCCUPATION?" HIS OWN SUSPICION, HAMADZIRIPI SAID, WAS THAT KABILA WAS TRYING TO WIDEN HIS BASE BY BRINGING PEOPLE INTO THE ASSEMBLY. ¶10. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S CONTINUED INTRANSIGENCE ON A NUMBER OF ISSUES, INCLUDING THE FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR AND MONUC ACCESS. HAMADZIRIPI SAID THAT THE GOZ SHARES THESE CONCERNS. HIS OWN VIEW IS THAT THE GOZ NEEDS TO SEND A MESSAGE TO KABILA THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN FORCES WILL NOT BE THERE FOREVER. WITHDRAWING SOME TROOPS WOULD BE A WAY TO SEND THAT MESSAGE. HOWEVER, HE NOTED THAT THIS APPROACH MAY BE UNPALATABLE TO (GOZ) POLITICIANS. WOLPE OBSERVED THAT KABILA HAS IN THE PAST RESPONDED ONLY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH SPECIFIC THREATS. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED THAT "IT SHOULDN'T BE THAT WAY BUT THAT'S THE CASE." AN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8980 PAGE 01 HARARE 04088 03 OF 03 261402Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 72A28A 261402Z /49 O 260835Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6693 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004088 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE AID FOR GAMBINO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI ON DRC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04088 03 OF 03 261402Z ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN KABILA AND THE GOZ, HE NOTED, IS THAT THE DRC HAS NO BUREAUCRATIC STRUCTURES; ONLY KABILA AND HIS MINISTERS CAN SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT. MONUC DEPLOYMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT CONSIDERATION WAS BEING GIVEN TO AN INITIAL, SEPARATE DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC FORCES IN KISANGANI. THIS MAY REQUIRE MODIFYING THE UN RESOLUTION, BUT IT WOULD DEMONSTRATE FORWARD MOVEMENT. HAMADZIRIPI RESPONDED POSITIVELY, ALTHOUGH NOTING THAT THE GOZ HAD "MAYBE A FEW CONCERNS" ABOUT FOCUSING ON KISANGANI. ¶12. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S RELUCTANCE TO ALLOW MONUC ACCESS TO CERTAIN AREAS, SUCH AS MBANDAKA, AND HIS INSISTENCE ON CLEARING EVERY FLIGHT IN THE CONGO. HAMADZIRIPI AGREED. IN A RECENT MEETING BETWEEN THE GOZ AND UN PEACEKEEPING OFFICIALS, HE RECALLED, IT WAS AGREED THAT ZIMBABWE SHOULD "SAY LESS AND LESS" ABOUT ITS WILLINGNESS TO WITHDRAW BASED ON MONUC DEPLOYMENT , SINCE KABILA COULD SEE THIS LACK OF SUPPORT AS A REASON TO STONEWALL ON IMPLEMENTING THE AGREEMENT, THUS REMOVING THE TRIGGER FOR ZIMBABWE'S EXIT. PRESIDENT MUGABE, HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE, HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT "WHATEVER WE CAN DO TO HASTEN THE DAY MONUC WILL DEPLOY WE WILL DO. WE WANT TO COOPERATE WITH THE UN." CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04088 03 OF 03 261402Z VOLUNTARY DDRR -------------- ¶13. (C) HAMADZIRIPI URGED THE USG TO SHARE THE NON- PAPER ON DDRR WITH THE UGANDANS AND RWANDANS, SINCE "SOME POSITIONS THEY ARE PUSHING ARE UNREALISTIC." IT IS NECESSARY TO REVIVE THIS ISSUE. PRENDERGAST NOTED THAT THE USG'S PROPOSED APPROACH STRESSES VOLUNTARY DEMOBILIZATION. HAMADZIRIPI CONCURRED THAT THE EFFORT WOULD NOT BE A SUCCESS IF THE SEQUENCING DID NOT PLACE VOLUNTARY DDRR BEFORE COERCIVE. HE NOTED THAT THE GOZ WANTS THE JMC GUIDELINES ENDORSED BY THE POLITICAL COMMITTEE AT THE FIRST MEETING PUT INTO PRACTICE. IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL, HAMADZIRIPI CONTINUED, THE EFFORT SHOULD NOT BE CONFINED TO THE SIGNATORIES; RATHER, IT SHOULD BE INTERNATIONALIZED. THE SADC REGION SHOULD BE BROUGHT IN. THE VICTORIA FALLS SUMMIT ON GOOD FRIDAY MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT WAS NOT PRACTICAL TO INCLUDE FORCIBLE DISARMAMENT IN THE FIRST INSTANCE. WOLPE NOTED THAT RWANDAN PRESIDENT KAGAME HAD RECENTLY TOLD THE BRITISH THAT HE IS NOT PUSHING FOR ALL CULPRITS TO BE TRACKED DOWN. THEY ARE PREPARED FOR INTERNATIONAL MECHANISMS FOR INTEGRATION OR RESETTLEMENT. WOLPE SAID THAT, PURSUANT TO THE JMC, IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM POLITICAL DISAGREEMENTS TO A TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT THAT WOULD LAY OUT THE WAY FORWARD ON VOLUNTARY DDRR. HAMADZIRIPI RESPONDED THAT THE JMC IS SUPPOSED TO LOOK AT FINANCIAL AND MANPOWER ISSUES, AND A DISCUSSION ON THIS HAS BEGUN. THE UGANDANS AND RWANDANS ARE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04088 03 OF 03 261402Z RELATIVELY HAPPY WITH THIS. COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) HAMADZIRIPI PROVIDED SOME IMPORTANT IDEAS FOR MOVING THE LUSAKA PROCESS FORWARD. FOR EXAMPLE, SOME SPECIFIC "TECHNICAL ARRANGEMENTS" DEFINING THE TERMS OF THE FACILITATION MIGHT ALLOW SIGNATORIES TO BECOME THE ENFORCER OF THE PROCESS LEADING TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, RATHER THAN LEAVING THIS TO MASIRE HIMSELF, WHO HAS NO LEVERAGE. THE IDEA THAT ZIMBABWE MIGHT THREATEN KABILA WITH TROOP WITHDRAWALS IF HE DOES NOT COMPLY WITH LUSAKA IS ALSO A GOOD ONE, SOMETHING THE TRAVELING PARTY HAS PURSUED WITH UGANDA AND RWANDA AS A BASIS FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE GOZ AS WELL AS THE QUINTET MEETING IDEA. ¶15. (U) S/E WOLPE HAS CLEARED ON THIS CABLE. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >