AJELLO TRYING TO SELL NON-CONGOLESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 004064 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS ROME ALSO FOR VATICAN NAIROBI PLEASE PASS TO S/E WOLPE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2010 TAGS: PREL MOPS PINR ZI CG MZ SUBJECT: AJELLO TRYING TO SELL NON-CONGOLESE BELLIGERENTS' SUMMIT TO ZIMBABWEANS REF: (A) LUSAKA 3300 (NOTAL) (B) MAPUTO 2843 (NOTAL) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) EUROPEAN UNION SPECIAL ENVOY ALDO AJELLO IS IN HARARE FOR A TWO-DAY VISIT DURING WHICH HE HOPES TO SELL THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT ON A SUMMIT OF NON-CONGOLESE BELLIGERENTS, AS DESCRIBED IN REFTELS. AJELLO, WHO HAD BEEN IN HARARE FOR 24 HOURS AND HAD MET ONLY WITH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04064 250725Z THE CONGOLESE AMBASSADOR, DR. KIKAYA BIN KARUBI, WAS HOPING TO SEE FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE, NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER GOCHE AND PRESIDENT MUGABE, BUT HAD RECEIVED NO CONFIRMATION OF ANY OF THE REQUESTED MEETINGS BY LATE JULY 24. ¶2. (C) AJELLO EXPRESSED THE VIEW TO CHARGE THAT NEITHER SIDE OF THE CONGOLESE CIVIL WAR WANTED PEACE, AND THAT THE CURRENT SITUATION FOLLOWED AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED PATTERN. ONCE ONE OF THE SIDES ENJOYED A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE IN THE FIELD, IT BEGAN TO PLAY GAMES IN TERMS OF THE PEACE PROCESS. AT THE MOMENT IT WAS KABILA, WHO WAS MOUNTING SUNDRY PRETEXTS TO DUMP SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS FACILITATOR, AND PURPOSELY MISINTERPRETING THE LIMITS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS AND THE MANDATE OF A PEACEKEEPING OPERATION THAT WOULD BE DEPLOYED IN PHASES. WITHOUT ALLIES NEITHER SIDE WOULD LAST LONG, AJELLO REASONED, PARTICULARLY KABILA. THE EUROPEAN UNION ENVOY ALSO ESTIMATED THAT THE POLITICAL AND HUMAN COST TO THE EXTERNAL BELLIGERENTS HAD BEEN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH THAT THEY WERE READY TO WITHDRAW. ¶3. (C) THE GOAL OF A SUMMIT OF THE NON-CONGOLESE BELLIGERENTS WOULD BE TO PUT THEIR CONGOLESE PROXIES ON NOTICE THAT EITHER THEY ADHERED TO THE LUSAKA PEACE PLAN, HOWEVER IMPERFECT, OR FACED REVOCATION OF SUPPORT. AJELLO WAS ESPECIALLY CURIOUS TO KNOW THE ZIMBABWEAN REACTION TO SUCH AN IDEA, AS HE WAS CONFIDENT THE OTHER PARTIES (INCLUDING RWANDA AND UGANDA) WOULD AGREE TO IT. A MEETING OF THE CONGOLESE BELLIGERENTS WOULD FOLLOW THE SUMMIT, HE CONTINUED. CALLING CONGOLESE PRESIDENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04064 250725Z KABILA A MAN WITH NO VISION BUT A MASTER MANIPULATOR, THE EUROPEAN UNION ENVOY AFFIRMED THAT THE CONGOLESE HAD TO BE PERSUADED THAT CONTINUING TO PROSECUTE THE WAR WAS NOT AN OPTION. ¶4. (C) AJELLO THEN EXPLAINED THAT MOZAMBICAN PRESIDENT CHISSANO ("A MAN WITH NO CHARISMA, GREY AND PALE") WOULD BE THE ONE TO ORGANIZE AND HOST THE SUMMIT. ALTHOUGH CHISSANO REPORTEDLY CONFIDED TO AJELLO THAT HE WAS IN KABILA'S BAD BOOKS, AS THE CONGOLESE PRESIDENT THOUGHT HE WAS IN LEAGUE WITH THE SOUTH AFRICANS, THE ANGOLANS RULED OUT ZAMBIAN MEDIATOR CHILUBA CONVENING THE SUMMIT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >