S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004062 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04062 01 OF 03 241524Z ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A JULY 17 MEETING WITH EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, MUGABE'S CONFIDANTE IN CHARGE OF SENSITIVE MISSIONS RELATING TO THE CONGO, GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT DRC PRESIDENT KABILA'S PUSH FOR THE REMOVAL OF SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS FACILITATOR IN THE CONGOLESE CONFLICT. MNANGAGWA INDICATED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE BELIEVES KABILA IS INTRACTABLE ON THE ISSUE. HOWEVER, HE ACCEPTED WOLPE'S ARGUMENT THAT KABILA'S OBJECTIONS TO MASIRE ARE A FIG LEAF FOR HIS DESIRE TO SEE THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE FAIL, AND APPEARED TO AGREE WITH WOLPE'S POINT THAT THE REMOVAL OF MASIRE WOULD KILL THE LUSAKA PROCESS. MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE THAT THE GOZ IS AS COMMITTED AS EVER TO A WITHDRAWAL FROM THE DRC. DESPITE THE GOZ'S OFFICIAL POSITION THAT ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS WILL RETREAT WHEN SECURITY CONDITIONS PERMIT, HE SAID, THEIR "REAL" POSITION IS THAT THEY WILL PULL OUT AS SOON AS MONUC IS DEPLOYED. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE MET JULY 17 WITH EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, A CLOSE CONFIDANTE OF PRESIDENT MUGABE WHO HAD JUST COMPLETED HIS TENURE AS MINISTER OF JUSTICE AND WAS SLATED TO BECOME SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT THE FOLLOWING DAY. MNANGAGWA IS WELL- BRIEFED ON ISSUES PERTAINING TO THE CONGO AS MUGABE USES HIM TO CONDUCT SENSITIVE MISSIONS THERE. WOLPE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR TO A/S RICE PRENDERGAST AND POLOFF. MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE THAT HE HAD NOT BEEN PRESENT AT THE PREVIOUS WEEK'S MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENT MUGABE AND PRESIDENT KABILA IN LUBUMBASHI, BUT HE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04062 01 OF 03 241524Z UNDERSTOOD THAT THEY HAD DISCUSSED TWO MAIN ISSUES: MASIRE'S TENURE AS FACILITATOR AND THE DEPLOYMENT OF UN TROOPS. SHORING UP SUPPORT FOR MASIRE -------------- ¶3. (C) WITH REGARD TO MASIRE, MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE KABILA HAD APPEARED INTRACTABLE AT LUBUMBASHI IN HIS OBJECTIONS TO MASIRE'S CONTINUED ROLE AS NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR AND HAD PRESSED FOR THE OAU TO APPOINT ANOTHER FACILITATOR. MUGABE, MNANGAGWA CONTINUED, HAD WARNED KABILA DURING THE JUNE 25 MINI- SUMMIT IN HARARE THAT HIS OBJECTIONS TO MASIRE DID NOT CONSTITUTE SUFFICIENT GROUNDS FOR REMOVING HIM. BY PRESSING FOR MASIRE'S REMOVAL, MUGABE TOLD KABILA, HE WAS CREATING A PERCEPTION THAT HE WAS MOVING AGAINST THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. KABILA RESPONDED TO MUGABE THAT HE STILL RESPECTED AND HONORED THE LUSAKA ACCORD, BUT HIS POSITION, SUPPORTED BY HIS CABINET, IS THAT MASIRE CANNOT CONTINUE AS FACILITATOR. MUGABE HIMSELF, MNANGAGWA TOLD WOLPE, HAS FOUND NO FAULT WITH THE WAY MASIRE HAS HANDLED HIS DUTIES. ¶4. (C) WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT, WHILE NO ONE CLAIMED MASIRE HAD CARRIED OUT HIS DIFFICULT JOB FLAWLESSLY, MANY OF KABILA'S ALLEGATIONS ABOUT MASIRE -- FOR EXAMPLE, THAT HE HAD NEGLECTED TO MEET WITH KABILA WHILE IN THE CONGO -- WERE FACTUALLY INCORRECT. NOTHING COULD BE MORE DAMAGING TO THE REGION, HE STATED, THAN ACQUIESCING TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, BECAUSE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04062 01 OF 03 241524Z "YOU KNOW AND I KNOW THAT THE REAL ISSUE FOR KABILA IS NOT MASIRE." RATHER, IT IS HIS NERVOUSNESS ABOUT THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. ACQUIESCING TO KABILA ON MASIRE WOULD SEND A SIGNAL TO THE CONGOLESE THAT LUSAKA IS DEAD. NO PARTY HAS BEEN CLEARER THAN THE ZIMBABWEANS, WOLPE NOTED, IN DESIRING THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT HE WAS PLEASED TO HEAR THAT MUGABE HAD DISCUSSED MASIRE'S ROLE WITH KABILA, AND ASKED THAT MNANGAGWA CONVEY TO MUGABE THE US VIEW THAT THE SURVIVAL OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS DEPENDS ON RETAINING MASIRE. MNANGAGWA PLEDGED TO DO SO. ¶5. (C) WOLPE THEN EXPRESSED HIS CONCERN ABOUT A REPORT THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD MET WITH SEVERAL INFLUENTIAL MEMBERS OF THE U.S. CONGRESS AND TOLD THEM THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE SUPPORT OF KABILA'S SOUTHERN ALLIES. NUJOMA'S COMMENTS, IF ACCURATELY REPORTED, COULD HARDEN ALREADY SKEPTICAL MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AGAINST THE MONUC OPERATION. WHY PAY FOR PEACEKEEPING, THEY ARE LIKELY TO ASK, WHEN THE POLITICAL ALTERNATIVE TO ARMED CONFLICT IS NO LONGER VIABLE? ON THE OTHER HAND, WOLPE NOTED, THE OAU COUNCIL OF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1231 PAGE 01 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 71C047 241524Z /49 O 241517Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6679 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004062 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC MINISTERS RECENTLY ISSUED A STATEMENT TAKING A STRONG STANCE THAT MASIRE SHOULD REMAIN AS FACILITATOR AND THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z THE LUSAKA SIGNATORIES SHOULD COOPERATE WITH HIM. MNANGAGWA, WHO RECENTLY RETURNED FROM A PRIVATE TRIP TO ENGLAND, SAID THAT HE HAD NOT BEEN AWARE OF THE OAU STATEMENT. ¶6. (C) WOLPE SUGGESTED THAT IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO PRESERVE MASIRE'S ROLE BY IMPLEMENTING FACE-SAVING MEASURES. HE NOTED THAT MASIRE HAS TWO BASIC PROBLEMS REGARDING THE CONGO: HE DOES NOT KNOW THE CONGO WELL AND HE DOES NOT SPEAK FRENCH. SEVERAL PROMINENT FRENCH SPEAKERS, WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA, HAVE OFFERED TO MAKE THEMSELVES AVAILABLE TO ASSIST MASIRE. WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT HE WOULD BE PRESSING FOR ACCEPTANCE OF THIS "MASIRE-PLUS" IDEA DURING HIS OTHER TRAVEL IN THE REGION. ONCE A CONSENSUS IS IN PLACE, THERE CAN BE A MULTILATERAL EFFORT TO PUSH THE IDEA WITH KABILA. MNANGAGWA EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT KABILA WILL ONLY SOFTEN ON HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE IF ANGOLA, NAMIBIA, AND ZIMBABWE TAKE A UNITED STAND. IF THERE IS ANY SIGN OF WEAKNESS, HE WILL REMAIN OBDURATE. WOLPE AGREED, AND ASKED MNANGAGWA WHETHER HE BELIEVED THE GOZ WOULD SUPPORT THE "MASIRE-PLUS" APPROACH. MNANGAGWA DID NOT REPLY DIRECTLY, BUT REPEATED THAT MUGABE HAD "FOUND NO FAULT" WITH MASIRE'S PERFORMANCE. COMPLIANCE WITH LUSAKA -------------- ¶7. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S DECISION TO UNILATERALLY APPOINT A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, AND RECALLED THAT MUGABE HAD SAID SEVERAL MONTHS AGO THAT HE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z BELIEVED HE HAD PERSUADED KABILA AGAINST TAKING SUCH A STEP. MNANGAGWA CONCURRED THAT MUGABE HAD ADVISED KABILA AGAINST APPOINTING THE ASSEMBLY, WHICH HE WARNED WOULD BE SEEN AS A PREEMPTION OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS. KABILA HAD REPLIED THAT HE WOULD GO BACK TO THE CABINET ON THE ISSUE. LATER, MNANGAGWA CONTINUED, THE CONGOLESE MINISTER OF JUSTICE HAD PHONED MNANGAGWA FROM KINSHASA AND SAID THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD DECIDED THAT IT WOULD PROCEED WITH THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, BUT THE JUSTICE MINISTER RATHER THAN THE PRESIDENT WOULD CONVENE IT. MNANGAGWA HAD REPLIED TO THE MINISTER THAT THE CONGO IS A SOVEREIGN STATE BUT THIS WAS NOT A GOOD MOVE DIPLOMATICALLY. WOLPE NOTED THAT THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE ASSEMBLY HAD HAD VERY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PEACE PROCESS. CONTINUED FIGHTING IN CONGO -------------- ¶8. (C) WOLPE NOTED THAT KABILA'S INTRANSIGENCE ON MASIRE AND OTHER ISSUES IS CREATING PROBLEMS WITH CONGOLESE REBEL GROUPS. FOR EXAMPLE, MLC LEADER JEAN PIERRE BEMBA RECENTLY RESPONDED TO WARNINGS NOT TO MOVE ON MBANDAKA BY POINTING TO KABILA'S OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR AND HIS RESISTANCE TO MASIRE. BEMBA HAS ASKED HOW LONG HE SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO HOLD BACK. WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT HE, AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE, AND SOUTH AFRICAN FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA HAVE POINTEDLY TOLD BEMBA TO LIMIT HIMSELF TO DEFENDING TERRITORY THAT HE CURRENTLY HOLDS RATHER THAN ADVANCING. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04062 02 OF 03 241524Z MONUC DEPLOYMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT THE USG IS PUSHING THE UN TO GET READY FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC, SUBJECT TO THE FULFILLMENT OF SECURITY AND ACCESS CONDITIONS. MNANGAGWA SAID THAT THE GOZ HAS STRESSED TO KABILA THE NEED TO MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THERE IS NO REASON TO DELAY THE DEPLOYMENT OF UN TROOPS. IF THERE ARE ANY VIOLATIONS, THE GOZ HAS WARNED KABILA, THEY MUST BE FROM THE OTHER SIDE. ONCE MONUC HAS ARRIVED AND FOREIGN TROOPS HAVE WITHDRAWN, MNANGAGWA CONTINUED, THE GOZ BELIEVES THAT THERE IS NO MORE SECURITY THREAT. WITHOUT UGANDA'S BACKING, BEMBA AND OTHER REBEL LEADERS WILL BE POWERLESS. WOLPE AGREED, NOTING THAT THE EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN MUCH MORE EAGER TO GET A UN PRESENCE ESTABLISHED THAN HAS KABILA. MNANGAGWA COMMENTED THAT KABILA BELIEVES, INCORRECTLY, THAT HE BENEFITS FROM THE PRESENCE OF FOREIGN TROOPS. ¶10. (C) WOLPE NOTED THAT, IRONICALLY, KISANGANI MAY BE THE FIRST PLACE WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR MONUC TO DEPLOY. HE SAID THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION BEING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1234 PAGE 01 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 71C052 241525Z /49 O 241517Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6680 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004062 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MNANGAGWA ON DRC GIVEN TO SEPARATING DEPLOYMENT IN KISANGANI FROM THE REST OF THE DEPLOYMENT PROCESS, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z ALTERING THE UN RESOLUTION ON MONUC. MNANGAGWA WAS NONCOMMITTAL ON THIS IDEA. CONDITIONS FOR WITHDRAWAL -------------- ¶11. (C) WOLPE ASKED MNANGAGWA IF HE WAS CORRECT IN ASSUMING THAT ZIMBABWE IS AS COMMITTED AS EVER TO A WITHDRAWAL. MNANGAGWA SAID THAT THIS IS TRUE. "ONCE UN TROOPS ARE IN THE DRC, WE HAVE NO JUSTIFICATION TO REMAIN UNLESS ASKED BY THE UN," HE SAID. MNANGAGWA NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL GOZ POSITION IS THAT ITS TROOPS WILL WITHDRAW ONCE IT IS SATISFIED THAT THE CONDITIONS FOR SECURITY IN THE CONGO ARE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE GOZ'S "REAL POSITION" IS THAT IT WILL WITHDRAW ONCE THE UN PEACEKEEPING TROOPS HAVE BEEN DEPLOYED. (COMMENT: HE DID NOT SPECIFY TO WHICH PHASE OF THE MONUC DEPLOYMENT HE WAS REFERRING. END COMMENT.) THE GOZ CANNOT SAY THIS PUBLICLY, HE CONTINUED, BECAUSE KABILA MIGHT THEN CREATE NEW OBSTACLES TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT. WOLPE ASKED WHETHER, IN THE SHORT TERM, THE GOZ WOULD BE AMENABLE TO NEGOTIATING A PARTIAL WITHDRAWAL. MNANGAGWA REPLIED AFFIRMATIVELY. WOLPE REPLIED THAT THE GOZ'S RECEPTIVITY TO THIS POSSIBILITY WAS HELPFUL. ¶12. (C) WOLPE OUTLINED THE USG NON-PAPER ON DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION, RESETTLEMENT, AND REINTEGRATION (DDRR). WOLPE TOLD MNANGAGWA THAT HE IS CURRENTLY SEEKING COMMENTS ON THE PROPOSAL FROM THE EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES. HE ASKED WHETHER THERE HAD BEEN ANY PROGRESS ON THE ISSUE OF VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z DEMOBILIZATION. MNANGAGWA RESPONDED THAT THE GOZ HAD BACKED OFF OF THIS ENTIRE ISSUE AFTER KABILA REPLIED NEGATIVELY AND "WE BURNED OUR FINGERS." WOLPE NOTED THAT THE ISSUE HAD BEEN RESURRECTED AT VICTORIA FALLS, AND ASKED IF THERE HAD BEEN ANY MOVEMENT. MNANGAGWA SAID THAT THERE HAD NOT. PRENDERGAST SAID PART OF THEIR MISSION IS TO CONSULT THE SIGNATORIES ON THE FEASIBILITY OF A TECHNICAL MISSION TO ASSESS THE CONDITIONS AND RESOURCES NECESSARY FOR VOLUNTARY DEMOBILIZATION OF THE NON-STATE ACTORS. THE USG HAS PRESENTED THE NON-PAPER TO THE OTHER SIGNATORIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS FOR PROGRESS ON THE ISSUE. MNANGAGWA INDICATED HIS SUPPORT FOR THE IDEAS, BUT SAID ZIMBABWE WOULD BE VERY CAREFUL ON THIS ISSUE BECAUSE OF ITS PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE WITH KABILA. ¶13. (C) AS THE MEETING CONCLUDED, MNANGAGWA SAID THAT PROGRESS TOWARD A WITHDRAWAL IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT TO THE GOZ NOW, BECAUSE THERE IS A NEW GOVERNMENT AND "WE DO NOT WANT IT BURDENED BY THE (PROBLEMS OF THE) PAST ONE." COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) MNANGAGWA MADE A NUMBER OF POINTS THAT REVEALED WHERE THE GOZ MAY BE ON CERTAIN KEY ISSUES. 1) ZIMBABWE REMAINS COMMITTED TO THE FASTEST POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA PEACE PROCESS; 2) SIGNIFICANT WITHDRAWALS ARE IN THE GOZ'S POLITICAL INTEREST, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THE GOZ WILL SEEK TO RETAIN A RESIDUAL FORCE TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04062 03 OF 03 241525Z PROTECT CORE ECONOMIC INTERESTS; 3) THE GOZ MAINTAINS A DIVERGENCE BETWEEN ITS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE LINES ON ITS POSTURE IN CONGO BECAUSE THEY DO NOT WANT KABILA TO BELIEVE THAT MONUC DEPLOYMENT WILL LEAD TO THE GOZ'S WITHDRAWAL; 4) THE SIGNATORIES MUST NOT ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S EFFORT TO OUST MASIRE. BUT THE GOZ SEEKS TO CLARIFY THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE FACILITATION, TO GIVE THE SIGNATORIES MORE LEVERAGE WITH BOTH KABILA AND MASIRE. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >