S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004061 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CG SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE CLASSIFIED BY S/E HOWARD WOLPE. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04061 01 OF 02 241510Z (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE GREAT LAKES HOWARD WOLPE, ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND POLOFFS, MET WITH NEWLY REAPPOINTED FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE AND UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID HAMADZIRIPI ON 19 JULY. WOLPE AND PRENDERGAST EXPRESSED USG CONCERNS ABOUT THE CONTINUED VIABILITY OF THE LUSAKA ACCORDS IF THE SIGNATORIES WERE TO ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS FACILITATOR. IN ADDITION, WOLPE HIGHLIGHTED RECENT ACTION IN THE EQUATEUR REGION AND OBSTACLES PLACED BY DRC PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT AS ADDITIONAL WORRYING FACTORS. HE PRESSED THE FM ON THE NEED FOR ZIMBABWE TO EXERT ALL POSSIBLE LEVERAGE ON KABILA TO ABANDON HIS REJECTION OF MASIRE, AND OFFERED SOME SUGGESTIONS ON HOW THAT MIGHT BE ACCOMPLISHED. MUDENGE, WHILE AFFIRMING THE NEED FOR MASIRE TO BE RETAINED AS FACILITATOR, FAULTED MASIRE'S APPROACH, AND PROPOSED THAT MASIRE CONSULT CLOSELY, AND REGULARLY, WITH THE LUSAKA SIGNATORY MINISTERS MOST DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN NEGOTIATING THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. THE FM ALSO BLAMED THE FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR ON THE UGANDANS, AND SAID IT WAS PROVING EASIER TO WORK WITH PAUL KAGAME NOW THAT HE IS PRESIDENT. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE GREAT LAKES HOWARD WOLPE MET JULY 19 WITH FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE. WOLPE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AF SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND POLOFFS; MUDENGE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID HAMADZIRIPI. WOLPE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04061 01 OF 02 241510Z EXPRESSED ANXIETY ABOUT THE LUSAKA PROCESS, WHICH IS "HANGING BY A THREAD." HIS MISSION, HE STATED, WAS TO GET THE PULSE OF THE AFRICAN LEADERS ON HOW TO WORK TOGETHER TO REVIVE THE PROCESS AND TO PRESENT SOME IDEAS FOR MOVING THE BALL FORWARD. THE FOREIGN MINISTER, CLEARLY TIRED FROM THE PAST MONTH'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ZIMBABWE AND HIS RECENT TRIP TO LOME FOR THE OAU SUMMIT, SAID HE'D BEEN CONCENTRATING ON "OTHER THINGS" AND ASKED FOR A BRIEF RECAPITULATION OF THE CURRENT SITUATION OF DROC AND THE STATUS OF MASIRE, WHICH WOLPE PROVIDED. VIEWS ON MASIRE -------------- ¶3. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT REPORTS THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD TOLD SEVERAL U.S. MEMBERS OF CONGRESS THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE SUPPORT OF KABILA'S SOUTHERN ALLIES, AND REITERATED THE USG STANCE THAT KABILA'S OPPOSITION TO MASIRE IS A FIG LEAF FOR HIS RESISTANCE TO THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. TO ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, HE CONTINUED, WOULD BE TO EFFECTIVELY ABANDON LUSAKA AND TO RESTART THE WAR. HE DESCRIBED MASIRE'S EFFORTS TO PULL TOGETHER A SUPPORT TEAM MADE UP OF FRANCOPHONES WITH EXPERTISE IN THE CONGO. WOLPE ALSO NOTED THAT THE OAU HAD RECENTLY ISSUED A STRONG STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR MASIRE. THIS, HE SAID, COULD INCREASE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE FACILITATION EFFORT AND OFFER KABILA A WAY TO ACCEPT MASIRE WITHOUT LOSING FACE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04061 01 OF 02 241510Z ¶4. (C) MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE CONCEPT OF A "FACILITATOR" IN THE LUSAKA PROCESS HAD BEEN HIS OWN IDEA, BUT NOTED THE DIFFICULTY OF MASIRE'S TASK. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT MASIRE IS A "VERY WISE MAN," BUT SAID THAT THIS "RIVER (THE LUSAKA PROCESS) IS FULL OF CROCODILES." WHILE PROFESSING "TREMENDOUS ADMIRATION" FOR MASIRE, MUDENGE EXPRESSED A NUMBER OF RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE WAY MASIRE AND HIS STAFF HAVE CONDUCTED THEMSELVES THUS FAR. HE ASSERTED THAT THEY HAD FAILED TO SEEK ADVICE FROM THE VARIOUS PARTIES THAT WERE INTIMATELY INVOLVED IN CREATING THE LUSAKA ACCORDS, IN PARTICULAR ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA. IT IS ONLY THROUGH DISCUSSIONS WITH THESE PEOPLE, WHO UNDERSTAND HOW HARD IT WAS TO GET THE COMPROMISES WROUGHT ON PAPER AND WHO HAD TO "FINESSE" THEIR WAY THROUGH EACH PARTY'S SENSITIVITIES, THAT MASIRE AND HIS TEAM CAN HOPE FOR SUCCESS. MUDENGE REPEATED SEVERAL TIMES THAT MASIRE MUST MAKE CONTACT WITH BOTH SIDES OF THE DROC CONFLICT, AN EFFORT THAT'S "BEEN MISSING." ¶5. (C) MUDENGE ALSO LAMENTED OTHER FACTORS PREVENTING THE SUCCESS OF THE FACILITATOR; AS AN EXAMPLE, HE SAID THAT MASIRE HAS BROUGHT IN A ZAMBIAN ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER PRESIDENT KAUNDA. THIS IS VERY DISTURBING, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1188 PAGE 01 HARARE 04061 02 OF 02 241511Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W -------------- 71BED6 241511Z /38 O 241513Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6677 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004061 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CG SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE CONSIDERING THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ZAMBIANS' ROLE. AS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 04061 02 OF 02 241511Z FOR KABILA'S INCREASING RELUCTANCE TO ACKNOWLEDGE ANY OF THE LUSAKA TENETS, MUDENGE ASSERTED THAT KABILA HAD HAD NO REAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE ACCORDS WHEN THEY WERE FIRST SIGNED; HE SAID THAT THE ONLY REASON KABILA HAD AGREED TO LUSAKA WAS THAT AN AIDE HAD GIVEN HIM AN INACCURATE INTERPRETATION OF ITS PROVISIONS. NOW, WITH HIS POSITION STRENGTHENED BY HIS ALLIES, KABILA FEELS NO COMPULSION TO ALLOW MONUC TROOPS INTO HIS COUNTRY. FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR -------------- ¶6. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED USG CONCERN ABOUT CONTINUED MOVEMENT BY BOTH MLC'S AND KABILA'S TROOPS IN THE EQUATEUR REGION -- IN VIOLATION OF THE KAMPALA CEASEFIRE LINE - WHICH IS EXACERBATING THE STRAINS ON THE LUSAKA PROCESS. MUDENGE, ASSERTING THAT SOME UGANDAN OFFICERS HAD BEEN CAPTURED IN THE EARLIER EQUATEUR FIGHTING, SAID THAT THE GOZ IS NOT WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THE NOTION THAT THE MLC, AND ITS LEADER, BEMBA, ARE ANYTHING BUT THE "MOUTHPIECE" OF THE UGANDANS. WOLPE NOTED THAT THE USG HAD EARLIER COME DOWN HARD ON MUSEVENI AS WELL AS BEMBA, BUT THAT NOW IT WAS THE GOVERNMENT FORCES THAT WERE IN VIOLATION OF THE KAMPALA AGREEMENT. ¶7. (C) THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID HE SHARED WOLPE'S CONCERNS ABOUT THE EQUATEUR SITUATION. HE ADDED THAT "OTHER PARTIES FOR VARIOUS REASONS DON'T WANT PEACE TO GO FORWARD," SPECIFICALLY CRITICIZING THE GOU FOR BEING "EVASIVE" ABOUT ITS COMMITMENT TO LUSAKA, AND QUESTIONING WHAT THE UGANDANS ARE UP TO. IN CONTRAST, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 04061 02 OF 02 241511Z HE AVERRED, THE GOZ HAS MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT IS "NOT PREPARED TO COUNTENANCE ANY VIOLATION OF KAMPALA." MONUC -------------- ¶8. (C) WOLPE NOTED WITH CONCERN THAT KABILA CONTINUES TO DENY MONUC FULL ACCESS, BY, FOR, EXAMPLE, INSISTING ON CLEARING ALL FLIGHTS. STRESSING THAT BOTH THE MASIRE AND THE EQUATEUR ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED QUICKLY, WOLPE SAID THAT THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HOPE FOR THE FULL DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC AND WITHDRAWAL OF CONGOLESE FORCES, IF THE GOVERNMENT IN KINSHASA IS NOT WILLING TO COMPLY WITH ALL ASPECTS OF LUSAKA DISARMAMENT. THE CONGOLESE, HE SAID, HAVE LESS ENTHUSIASM FOR MONUC THAN THE EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES, ADDING THAT MONUC CANNOT CONTINUE TO BE DENIED FULL ACCESS TO THE CONGO. WOLPE TOLD MUDENGE THAT AN EARLY MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN KISANGANI IS UNDER CONSIDERATION IN AN EFFORT NOT ONLY TO STABILIZE THE SITUATION IN THAT CITY, BUT ALSO AS A MEANS TO STRENGTHEN EXTERNAL SIGNATORY CONFIDENCE IN MONUC'S CAPABILITY AND SERIOUSNESS. PRENDERGAST ADDED THAT THE USG GOAL IS TO MAKE THE SITUATION AS CONDUCIVE AS POSSIBLE TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT, SAYING THAT, GIVEN THE DEBACLE IN SIERRA LEONE, THE UN WANTS TO BE CERTAIN THAT THERE IS AN EFFECTIVE CEASE-FIRE IN PLACE, AND THAT MONUC OBSERVERS WILL BE UNIMPEDED IN THEIR EXECUTION OF THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES. ¶9. (C) MUDENGE CONCURRED ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF DEPLOYING MONUC, BUT NOTED THAT KABILA IS BECOMING LESS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 04061 02 OF 02 241511Z CONVINCED THAT THIS IS IN HIS INTEREST. WOLPE RESPONDED THAT THIS IS WHY THE GOZ'S ROLE IS SO IMPORTANT. "YOUR LEVERAGE IS ABSOLUTELY VITAL," HE SAID. MUDENGE RESPONDED THAT "LEVERAGE IS A DIMINISHING RESOURCE." STILL, WOLPE COUNTERED, KABILA IS ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON THE ZIMBABWEANS. WOLPE CLOSED THE MEETING BY ONCE MORE URGING MUDENGE AND THE GOZ TO EXERT ALL POSSIBLE PRESSURE ON KABILA TO PERMIT LUSAKA TO GO FORWARD, AS IT IS IN THE COMMON INTEREST OF ALL THE EXTERNAL STATES TO END THIS DEVASTATING CONFLICT. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) MUDENGE'S RESPONSE TO WOLPE'S ASSERTION THAT THE GOZ COULD TRULY INFLUENCE KABILA SINCE KABILA IS STILL TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON THE GOZ WAS A COY LAUGH. HE SAID THEY WOULD BE DISCUSSING COURSE CORRECTIONS AND LEVERAGE AT THE UPCOMING POLITICAL COMMITTEE MEETING. HOWEVER, MUDENGE RECOGNIZED THAT ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE COULD SOUND THE DEATH KNELL OF LUSAKA. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >