S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004061

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CG
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE


CLASSIFIED BY S/E HOWARD WOLPE. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND
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PAGE 02 HARARE 04061 01 OF 02 241510Z
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE GREAT LAKES HOWARD
WOLPE, ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST
AND POLOFFS, MET WITH NEWLY REAPPOINTED FOREIGN MINISTER
STANISLAUS MUDENGE AND UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID
HAMADZIRIPI ON 19 JULY. WOLPE AND PRENDERGAST EXPRESSED
USG CONCERNS ABOUT THE CONTINUED VIABILITY OF THE LUSAKA
ACCORDS IF THE SIGNATORIES WERE TO ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S
REJECTION OF SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS FACILITATOR. IN
ADDITION, WOLPE HIGHLIGHTED RECENT ACTION IN THE
EQUATEUR REGION AND OBSTACLES PLACED BY DRC PRESIDENT
LAURENT KABILA TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT AS ADDITIONAL
WORRYING FACTORS. HE PRESSED THE FM ON THE NEED FOR
ZIMBABWE TO EXERT ALL POSSIBLE LEVERAGE ON KABILA TO
ABANDON HIS REJECTION OF MASIRE, AND OFFERED SOME
SUGGESTIONS ON HOW THAT MIGHT BE ACCOMPLISHED. MUDENGE,
WHILE AFFIRMING THE NEED FOR MASIRE TO BE RETAINED AS
FACILITATOR, FAULTED MASIRE'S APPROACH, AND PROPOSED
THAT MASIRE CONSULT CLOSELY, AND REGULARLY, WITH THE
LUSAKA SIGNATORY MINISTERS MOST DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN
NEGOTIATING THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. THE FM ALSO BLAMED
THE FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR ON THE UGANDANS, AND SAID IT
WAS PROVING EASIER TO WORK WITH PAUL KAGAME NOW THAT HE
IS PRESIDENT. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE GREAT LAKES HOWARD WOLPE
MET JULY 19 WITH FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE.
WOLPE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AF SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN
PRENDERGAST AND POLOFFS; MUDENGE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID HAMADZIRIPI. WOLPE
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EXPRESSED ANXIETY ABOUT THE LUSAKA PROCESS, WHICH IS
"HANGING BY A THREAD." HIS MISSION, HE STATED, WAS TO
GET THE PULSE OF THE AFRICAN LEADERS ON HOW TO WORK
TOGETHER TO REVIVE THE PROCESS AND TO PRESENT SOME IDEAS
FOR MOVING THE BALL FORWARD. THE FOREIGN MINISTER,
CLEARLY TIRED FROM THE PAST MONTH'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS IN ZIMBABWE AND HIS RECENT TRIP TO LOME FOR
THE OAU SUMMIT, SAID HE'D BEEN CONCENTRATING ON "OTHER
THINGS" AND ASKED FOR A BRIEF RECAPITULATION OF THE
CURRENT SITUATION OF DROC AND THE STATUS OF MASIRE,
WHICH WOLPE PROVIDED.

VIEWS ON MASIRE
--------------


3. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT REPORTS THAT
NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD TOLD SEVERAL U.S.
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE
SUPPORT OF KABILA'S SOUTHERN ALLIES, AND REITERATED THE
USG STANCE THAT KABILA'S OPPOSITION TO MASIRE IS A FIG
LEAF FOR HIS RESISTANCE TO THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE.
TO ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, HE
CONTINUED, WOULD BE TO EFFECTIVELY ABANDON LUSAKA AND TO
RESTART THE WAR. HE DESCRIBED MASIRE'S EFFORTS TO PULL
TOGETHER A SUPPORT TEAM MADE UP OF FRANCOPHONES WITH
EXPERTISE IN THE CONGO. WOLPE ALSO NOTED THAT THE OAU
HAD RECENTLY ISSUED A STRONG STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR
MASIRE. THIS, HE SAID, COULD INCREASE THE LEGITIMACY OF
THE FACILITATION EFFORT AND OFFER KABILA A WAY TO ACCEPT
MASIRE WITHOUT LOSING FACE.

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PAGE 04 HARARE 04061 01 OF 02 241510Z

4. (C) MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE CONCEPT OF A
"FACILITATOR" IN THE LUSAKA PROCESS HAD BEEN HIS OWN
IDEA, BUT NOTED THE DIFFICULTY OF MASIRE'S TASK. HE
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT MASIRE IS A "VERY WISE MAN," BUT SAID
THAT THIS "RIVER (THE LUSAKA PROCESS) IS FULL OF
CROCODILES." WHILE PROFESSING "TREMENDOUS ADMIRATION"
FOR MASIRE, MUDENGE EXPRESSED A NUMBER OF RESERVATIONS
ABOUT THE WAY MASIRE AND HIS STAFF HAVE CONDUCTED
THEMSELVES THUS FAR. HE ASSERTED THAT THEY HAD FAILED
TO SEEK ADVICE FROM THE VARIOUS PARTIES THAT WERE
INTIMATELY INVOLVED IN CREATING THE LUSAKA ACCORDS, IN
PARTICULAR ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA. IT IS ONLY
THROUGH DISCUSSIONS WITH THESE PEOPLE, WHO UNDERSTAND
HOW HARD IT WAS TO GET THE COMPROMISES WROUGHT ON PAPER
AND WHO HAD TO "FINESSE" THEIR WAY THROUGH EACH PARTY'S
SENSITIVITIES, THAT MASIRE AND HIS TEAM CAN HOPE FOR
SUCCESS. MUDENGE REPEATED SEVERAL TIMES THAT MASIRE
MUST MAKE CONTACT WITH BOTH SIDES OF THE DROC CONFLICT,
AN EFFORT THAT'S "BEEN MISSING."


5. (C) MUDENGE ALSO LAMENTED OTHER FACTORS PREVENTING
THE SUCCESS OF THE FACILITATOR; AS AN EXAMPLE, HE SAID
THAT MASIRE HAS BROUGHT IN A ZAMBIAN ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMER PRESIDENT KAUNDA. THIS IS VERY DISTURBING,

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1188

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00
/008W
-------------- 71BED6 241511Z /38
O 241513Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6677
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004061

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/10
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CG
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE

CONSIDERING THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ZAMBIANS' ROLE. AS
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PAGE 02 HARARE 04061 02 OF 02 241511Z
FOR KABILA'S INCREASING RELUCTANCE TO ACKNOWLEDGE ANY OF
THE LUSAKA TENETS, MUDENGE ASSERTED THAT KABILA HAD HAD
NO REAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE ACCORDS WHEN THEY WERE
FIRST SIGNED; HE SAID THAT THE ONLY REASON KABILA HAD
AGREED TO LUSAKA WAS THAT AN AIDE HAD GIVEN HIM AN
INACCURATE INTERPRETATION OF ITS PROVISIONS. NOW, WITH
HIS POSITION STRENGTHENED BY HIS ALLIES, KABILA FEELS NO
COMPULSION TO ALLOW MONUC TROOPS INTO HIS COUNTRY.

FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR
--------------


6. (C) WOLPE EXPRESSED USG CONCERN ABOUT CONTINUED
MOVEMENT BY BOTH MLC'S AND KABILA'S TROOPS IN THE
EQUATEUR REGION -- IN VIOLATION OF THE KAMPALA CEASEFIRE
LINE - WHICH IS EXACERBATING THE STRAINS ON THE LUSAKA
PROCESS. MUDENGE, ASSERTING THAT SOME UGANDAN OFFICERS
HAD BEEN CAPTURED IN THE EARLIER EQUATEUR FIGHTING, SAID
THAT THE GOZ IS NOT WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THE NOTION THAT
THE MLC, AND ITS LEADER, BEMBA, ARE ANYTHING BUT THE
"MOUTHPIECE" OF THE UGANDANS. WOLPE NOTED THAT THE USG
HAD EARLIER COME DOWN HARD ON MUSEVENI AS WELL AS BEMBA,
BUT THAT NOW IT WAS THE GOVERNMENT FORCES THAT WERE IN
VIOLATION OF THE KAMPALA AGREEMENT.


7. (C) THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID HE SHARED WOLPE'S
CONCERNS ABOUT THE EQUATEUR SITUATION. HE ADDED THAT
"OTHER PARTIES FOR VARIOUS REASONS DON'T WANT PEACE TO
GO FORWARD," SPECIFICALLY CRITICIZING THE GOU FOR BEING
"EVASIVE" ABOUT ITS COMMITMENT TO LUSAKA, AND
QUESTIONING WHAT THE UGANDANS ARE UP TO. IN CONTRAST,
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PAGE 03 HARARE 04061 02 OF 02 241511Z
HE AVERRED, THE GOZ HAS MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT IS "NOT
PREPARED TO COUNTENANCE ANY VIOLATION OF KAMPALA."

MONUC
--------------


8. (C) WOLPE NOTED WITH CONCERN THAT KABILA CONTINUES
TO DENY MONUC FULL ACCESS, BY, FOR, EXAMPLE, INSISTING
ON CLEARING ALL FLIGHTS. STRESSING THAT BOTH THE MASIRE
AND THE EQUATEUR ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED QUICKLY,
WOLPE SAID THAT THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HOPE FOR THE FULL
DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC AND WITHDRAWAL OF CONGOLESE FORCES,
IF THE GOVERNMENT IN KINSHASA IS NOT WILLING TO COMPLY
WITH ALL ASPECTS OF LUSAKA DISARMAMENT. THE CONGOLESE,
HE SAID, HAVE LESS ENTHUSIASM FOR MONUC THAN THE
EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES, ADDING THAT MONUC CANNOT CONTINUE
TO BE DENIED FULL ACCESS TO THE CONGO. WOLPE TOLD
MUDENGE THAT AN EARLY MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN KISANGANI IS
UNDER CONSIDERATION IN AN EFFORT NOT ONLY TO STABILIZE
THE SITUATION IN THAT CITY, BUT ALSO AS A MEANS TO
STRENGTHEN EXTERNAL SIGNATORY CONFIDENCE IN MONUC'S
CAPABILITY AND SERIOUSNESS. PRENDERGAST ADDED THAT THE
USG GOAL IS TO MAKE THE SITUATION AS CONDUCIVE AS
POSSIBLE TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT, SAYING THAT, GIVEN THE
DEBACLE IN SIERRA LEONE, THE UN WANTS TO BE CERTAIN THAT
THERE IS AN EFFECTIVE CEASE-FIRE IN PLACE, AND THAT
MONUC OBSERVERS WILL BE UNIMPEDED IN THEIR EXECUTION OF
THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES.


9. (C) MUDENGE CONCURRED ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF
DEPLOYING MONUC, BUT NOTED THAT KABILA IS BECOMING LESS
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CONVINCED THAT THIS IS IN HIS INTEREST. WOLPE RESPONDED
THAT THIS IS WHY THE GOZ'S ROLE IS SO IMPORTANT. "YOUR
LEVERAGE IS ABSOLUTELY VITAL," HE SAID. MUDENGE
RESPONDED THAT "LEVERAGE IS A DIMINISHING RESOURCE."
STILL, WOLPE COUNTERED, KABILA IS ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT
ON THE ZIMBABWEANS. WOLPE CLOSED THE MEETING BY ONCE
MORE URGING MUDENGE AND THE GOZ TO EXERT ALL POSSIBLE
PRESSURE ON KABILA TO PERMIT LUSAKA TO GO FORWARD, AS IT
IS IN THE COMMON INTEREST OF ALL THE EXTERNAL STATES TO
END THIS DEVASTATING CONFLICT.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) MUDENGE'S RESPONSE TO WOLPE'S ASSERTION THAT
THE GOZ COULD TRULY INFLUENCE KABILA SINCE KABILA IS
STILL TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON THE GOZ WAS A COY LAUGH. HE
SAID THEY WOULD BE DISCUSSING COURSE CORRECTIONS AND
LEVERAGE AT THE UPCOMING POLITICAL COMMITTEE MEETING.
HOWEVER, MUDENGE RECOGNIZED THAT ACQUIESCENCE TO
KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE COULD SOUND THE DEATH KNELL
OF LUSAKA.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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