S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003942 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE USAID FOR GAMBINO LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03942 01 OF 03 181827Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA WELILE NHLAPO REF: A) STATE 132954 B) STATE 135319 CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. ACCORDING TO SAG DDG FOR AFRICA WELILE NHLAPO, CNDD/FDD REBEL LEADER JEAN BOSCO NDAYIKENGURUKIYE AND FNL REBEL LEADER KOSSAN KABURA NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ARUSHA PEACE PROCESS. WHILE SAG OFFICIALS AND FACILITATOR NELSON MANDELA DOUBT BOTH KOSSAN'S INTENT AND LEADERSHIP ABILITY, THEY HAVE BEEN MORE FAVORABLY IMPRESSED WITH JEAN BOSCO'S WILLINGNESS TO ENTER INTO DIALOGUE. MANDELA HAS URGED JEAN BOSCO TO DECLARE A UNILATERAL SUSPENSION OF ALL ARMED ACTION. NHLAPO TOLD SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE THAT MANDELA IS FRUSTRATED WITH THE "GAMES" THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES ARE PLAYING IN ARUSHA. NHLAPO SUGGESTED THAT THE TIME WAS RIPE TO BRING TOGETHER THE KEY BURUNDIAN PA RTIES, WITH INTERNATIONAL ENVOYS IN THE WINGS TO EXERT PRESSURE AS NEED ED. ¶2. (C) NHLAPO FIRMLY STATED THAT TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FOR DROC NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR MASIRE WOULD BE TO GIVE THE CONGOLESE THE SIGNAL TO RETURN TO WAR. SOUTH AFRICA HAS STRONGLY COUNSELED MLC LEADER BEMBA TO NOT ADVANCE TOWARD MBANDAKA. S/E WOLPE SUGGESTED ANOTHER MEETING OF THE FIVE EXTERNAL PARTIES (ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03942 01 OF 03 181827Z NAMIBIA, UGANDA, AND RWANDA) SIMILAR TO THE VICTORIA FALLS MEETING AS A WAY TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR POLITICAL UNDERSTANDING AND TO DECIDE HOW BEST TO GET ALL OF THE CONGOLESE PARTIES TO COMPLY WITH LUSAKA. END SUMMARY. BURUNDI: U.S. PERSPECTIVE -------------- ¶3. (C) DURING A JULY 16 LUNCH, S/E WOLPE, WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER),OUTLINED FOR DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL (DDG) FOR AFRICA, WELILE NHLAPO, USG CONCERNS REGARDING THE BURUNDI PEACE PROCESS. S/E WOLPE INFORMED NHLAPO THAT HE AND PRENDERGAST WOULD BE MEETING WITH FACILITATOR NELSON MANDELA ON JULY 17, AND WOULD ANNOUNCE THE SUCCESSFUL DEPOSIT OF $US500,000 TO THE ARUSHA ACCOUNT, AND THE USG DECISION TO ALLOCATE AN ADDITIONAL $500,000, PENDING CONGRESSIONAL NOTIFICATION. THE SPECIAL ENVOY STRESSED THAT, WHILE RELIEVED THAT MANDELA HAD DECIDED TO POSTPONE THE SIGNING OF THE ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD FROM JULY 20 TO AUGUST 28 (REF B),EVEN THE LATTER DATE WAS PREMATURE. AS WOLPE RECOUNTED, THE HISTORY OF THE RWANDAN AND SIERRA LEONE PEACE PROCESSES ILLUSTRATE THE NEED TO PROPERLY DEAL WITH ISSUES SUCH AS IMPUNITY AND AMNESTY, AND TO INSURE ALL KEY PLAYERS ARE AT THE TABLE. FURTHER, SAID THE SPECIAL ENVOY, THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES HAVE NOT YET REACHED AGREEMENT ON CRITICAL AREAS SUCH AS ARMED FORCES INTEGRATION, THE DEFINITION OF GENOCIDE, AND WHO WILL LEAD THE TRANSITION. ¶4. (C) WHILE WOLPE STRESSED THAT MANDELA HAD ENGENDERED THE BELIEF AMONG THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES THAT AN AGREEMENT WAS FEASIBLE, AND HAD BROUGHT CORE ISSUES TO THE TABLE, THE SPECIAL ENVOY MAINTAINED THAT A CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03942 01 OF 03 181827Z MORE REASONABLE GOAL WAS TO SECURE A PEACE AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR. WOLPE AND NHLAPO AGREED THAT MANDELA SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE SIGNING OF THE AGREEMENT UNTIL THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESOLVE OUTSTANDING ISSUES. SAG IMPRESSED WITH JEAN BOSCO -------------- ¶5. (C) NHLAPO RECALLED THAT SAG OFFICIALS HAD WARNED FORMER PRESIDENT MANDELA THAT MANY OF THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES WERE NEITHER MATURE, NOR HONEST. MANDELA COMPLAINS THAT THE BURUNDIANS ARE NOT COOPERATING ON THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS, WITH ALL SIDES "PLAYING GAMES." NHLAPO ADDED THAT MANDELA IS FRUSTRATED WITH THE ISSUE AND HAS TOLD BURUNDIAN PRESIDENT BUYOYA THAT HE SIMPLY CANNOT ACCEPT ANY LEADER THAT CONTINUES TO HOLD POLITICAL PRISONERS. AFTER POSITIVELY RESPONDING TO WOLPE'S QUERY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF USING AN INTERNATIONAL PANEL TO ASSIST IN DEFINING POLITICAL PRISONERS, NHLAPO INDICATED THAT MANDELA HAD TO FIRST CLEAR ON THE IDEA. ¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH NHLAPO EXPRESSED DOUBT ABOUT CNDD LEADER LEONARD CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3088 PAGE 01 HARARE 03942 02 OF 03 181827Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 6FA45F 181827Z /07 O 181550Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6644 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE RWANDA COLLECTIVE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003942 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE USAID FOR GAMBINO LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03942 02 OF 03 181827Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA WELILE NHLAPO NYANGOMA'S INCONSISTENCY AND INCOMPETENCY AND BAGAZA'S LEADERSHIP ABILITY, THE DDG FOR AFRICA INDICATED THAT THE SAG HAS BEEN IMPRESSED WITH CNDD/FDD REBEL LEADER JEAN BOSCO NDAYIKENGURUKIYE'S BEHAVIOR. ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, MANDELA HAS HAD SUCCESS IN ESTABLISHING A RAPPORT WITH JEAN BOSCO, WHO, IN TURN, HAS BEEN QUICK TO ASK FOR GUIDANCE ON SUBJECTS HE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND. FOR EXAMPLE, ILLUSTRATED NHLAPO, JEAN BOSCO REQUESTED ASSISTANCE IN EXPLAINING PORTIONS OF THE ARUSHA DOCUMENTS. THE REBEL LEADER, SAID NHLAPO, IS "NOT PLAYING GAMES," AND SAG OFFICIALS HAVE ORGANIZED HIS TRAVEL TO ARUSHA FOR THE JULY 19 - 20 SUMMIT. ON THE OTHER HAND, NHLAPO STRESSED THAT JEAN BOSCO IS "TREATED LIKE A KING" IN LUBUMBASHI, WHICH MAKES HIS WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ARUSHA TALKS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN. NHLAPO ADDED THAT IT APPEARED THAT ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE, UPON PRESIDENT MBEKI'S REQUEST, DID DISCUSS JEAN BOSCO'S POSITION WITH KABILA. AS A RESULT, JEAN BOSCO MAY NOW HAVE MORE FREEDOM OF MANEUVER. ¶7. (C) ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, MANDELA HAS SUGGESTED TO JEAN BOSCO THAT THE REBEL LEADER DECLARE A UNILATERAL SUSPENSION OF ALL ARMED ACTION, AS SUCH A MOVE WOULD ENHANCE JEAN BOSCO'S POLITICAL CREDIBILITY. FURTHER, AN EFFECTIVE SUSPENSION WOULD DEMONSTRATE THE REBEL LEADER'S COMMAND AND CONTROL ABILITY. JEAN BOSCO HAS HESITATED TO DO SO, RECOUNTED NHLAPO, BECAUSE IT COULD "IMPLY SURRENDER." UPON HIS RETURN FROM BUJUMBURA, SAID NHLAPO, MANDELA WROTE TO BOTH JEAN BOSCO AND FNL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03942 02 OF 03 181827Z LEADER KOSSAN KABURA, AGAIN URGING THEM TO SUSPEND MILITARY ACTION, ARGUING THAT THEY WOULD BENEFIT BY JOINING THE ARUSHA PROCESS. KOSSAN'S RESPONSE TO THE LETTER, RECOUNTED NHLAPO, WAS TO INVITE MANDELA TO VISIT THE REBEL LEADER'S "LIBERATED" AREAS. ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, THE SAG HAS SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT KOSSAN'S LEADERSHIP ABILITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, JEAN BOSCO'S "MORE MATURE" ANSWER, SAID NHLAPO, INDICATED HE WAS RECEPTIVE TO FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH MANDELA. ¶8. (C) JEAN BOSCO'S RECEPTIVENESS NOTWITHSTANDING, NHLAPO MAINTAINED THAT IF JEAN BOSCO AND KOSSAN EITHER REFUSED TO JOIN THE ARUSHA PROCESS OR COULD NOT DELIVER ON A CEASE-FIRE, THE TWO REBEL LEADERS NEEDED TO BE MARGINALIZED OR ELSE THEY IN TURN COULD DERAIL THE ENTIRE PROCESS. AS THE BURUNDIAN GOVERNMENT IS NOT SURE OF THE EXTENT OF THE REBELS' COMMAND AND CONTROL, NHLAPO EMPHASIZED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NEEDED TO EMBARK ON A "SERIOUS ANALYSIS" OF THESE MOVEMENTS IN ORDER TO OBTAIN A CLEARER IDEA OF THE REBELS' ACTUAL STRENGTH. AS AN ASIDE, NHLAPO ALSO NOTED THAT JEAN BOSCO'S PARTICIPATION IN THE ARUSHA TALKS THREATENED NYANGOMA'S POSITION; HE INDICATED THAT MANDELA MUST MAKE A SPECIAL EFFORT TO MEET WITH NYANGOMA DURING THE JULY 19-20 SUMMIT. BROADENING ARUSHA -------------- ¶9. (C) S/E WOLPE TOLD NHLAPO THAT DON MATTEO ZUPPI ALSO BELIEVED THAT MANDELA NEEDED TO BE PERSUADED NOT TO INSIST ON A SIGNING OF THE AGREEMENT IN AUGUST. WOLPE ADDED THAT DON MATTEO HOPED THE JULY 19 -20 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03942 02 OF 03 181827Z SUMMIT WOULD CRYSTALLIZE DISCUSSION ON OUTSTANDING ISSUES AND ENABLE THE KEY FIVE OR SIX ACTORS TO MEET TOGETHER TO WORK ON THESE PROBLEMS. NHLAPO SUGGESTED THAT IF SUCH A GATHERING OF KEY BURUNDIAN PLAYERS WAS TO BE ORGANIZED, IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE INTERNATIONAL ENVOYS PRESENT TO EXERT PRESSURE AS NEEDED. DROC: PROBLEMS AHEAD -------------- ¶10. (C) IN RESPONSE TO S/E WOLPE'S COMMENT THAT THE USG HAD NOT RECEIVED A READOUT FROM ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE'S RECENT TRIP TO THE DROC, NHLAPO INDICATED THAT THE SAG HAD NOT RECEIVED ONE EITHER, AS ITS AMBASSADOR WAS CURRENTLY IN SOUTH AFRICA ON MEDICAL LEAVE. THE SPECIAL ENVOY STRESSED THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD WORRIED SEVERAL CONGRESSMEN RECENTLY WHEN HE STATED THAT THE SADC ALLIES NO LONGER SUPPORTED NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR MASIRE. WOLPE STRESSED THAT THE USG BELIEVES IT WOULD BE A DISASTER TO THE PEACE PROCESS IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WERE TO ACQUIESCE IN KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE. NHLAPO CONCURRED AND ADDED THAT TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FOR MASIRE WOULD GIVE DROC PARTIES THE PRETEXT FOR A RENEWAL OF WAR IN THE CONGO. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3099 PAGE 01 HARARE 03942 03 OF 03 181831Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 6FA4C3 181831Z /07 O 181550Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6645 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE RWANDA COLLECTIVE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003942 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH USUN FOR HOLBROOKE USAID FOR GAMBINO LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03942 03 OF 03 181831Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA WELILE NHLAPO EMPHASIZING THAT A FULL DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC FORCES DEPENDED UPON KABILA'S COMPLYING WITH ALL THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT PROVISIONS, WOLPE NOTED THAT KABILA STILL REFUSED MONUC FULL ACCESS AND WAS NOW EMBARKED ON AN OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE. ¶11. (C) RECOUNTING RECENT TELEPHONE CALLS HE AND PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE HOLBROOKE RECEIVED FROM MLC LEADER BEMBA REGARDING KABILA'S OFFENSIVE AGAINST MLC FORCES AND HIS FRUSTRATION WITH THE USG'S ADMONITION TO STAY IN PLACE AND NOT ATTACK MBANDAKA (REF A), WOLPE STRESSED THAT THE USG REMAINED FIRM IN ITS POSITION OF DISCOURAGING ANY OFFENSIVE ACTION, EVEN IN REACTION TO AN ATTACK. NHLAPO AGREED, NOTING THAT BEMBA HAD ALSO INDICATED TO THE SAG THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO MOVE FORWARD "A LITTLE BIT," BUT THAT SOUTH AFRICA HAD STRONGLY COUNSELED AGAINST SUCH ACTION. ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, BEMBA REMAINS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE ABOUT HIS CREDIBILITY WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. NHLAPO ADDED THAT BEMBA CLAIMED HE WAS UNDER PRESSURE FROM HIS MILITARY COMMANDERS TO TAKE MBANDAKA, WHICH WOULD PLACE HIS FORCES IN A DIRECT LINE TO KINSHASA. IN RETURN, THE SAG HAS REPEATEDLY TOLD BEMBA TO EXERT HIS COMMAND AND CONTROL TO ENSURE THAT NO MOVE IS MADE TOWARDS MBANDAKA. WOLPE NOTED THAT THE USG WAS SEEKING CONFIRMATION OF BEMBA'S CLAIM THAT HE HAS WITHDRAWN HIS FORCES TO THE KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE LINE. IF SO, SAID WOLPE, KABILA'S RECENT ATTACKS HAVE VIOLATED BOTH THE KAMPALA AND LUSAKA AGREEMENTS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03942 03 OF 03 181831Z ¶12. (C) IN CLOSING, SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE SUGGESTED TO NHLAPO THAT THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT WOULD BENEFIT FROM A MEETING OF THE FIVE EXTERNAL ACTORS, ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, NAMIBIA, UGANDA AND RWANDA, WITHOUT KABILA. NHLAPO CONCURRED. COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) IT APPEARS THAT USG AND SAG ANALYSIS AND PRESCRIPTION ARE IN SYNCH, WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE DRC AND BURUNDI PEACE PROCESSES. THE MOST NOTABLE NEW ELEMENT IN NHLAPO'S COMMENTARY IS THE APPARENT RAPPORT THAT FACILITATOR MANDELA HAS ESTABLISHED WITH THE FDD REBEL LEADER. TO SECURE JEAN BOSCO'S PARTICIPATION IN THE JULY 19-20 ARUSHA MEETING WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >