FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003941 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL USUN FOR HOLBROOKE NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SOUTH AFRICA'S FOREIGN MINISTER DR. NKOSAZANA DLAMINI-ZUMA AGREED WITH SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE'S ASSESSMENT THAT NOTHING WAS MORE DANGEROUS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS THAN ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF DRC FACILITATOR SIR KETUMILE MASIRE. ZUMA REVIEWED KABILA'S ROLE IN EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE MASIRE, AND COMPLAINED ABOUT BROAD COMPLICITY OF STATES IN ISSUING CARROTS TO KABILA, BUT NOT APPLYING THE STICK. IN ZUMA'S VIEW, KABILA'S EFFORTS TO FORM HIS OWN CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, REJECT MASIRE, AND FOLLOW AN APPROACH THAT EXCLUDES A LARGE PART OF THE CONGO FROM THE SOLUTION, EFFECTIVELY SAYS, "TO HELL WITH THE REST OF THE CONGO." THIS IS A FORMULA, SHE BELIEVES, FOR THE ULTIMATE PARTITION OF THE DRC. ZUMA MUSED THAT IT WOULD BE TIMELY TO CONVENE AN OAU-SPONSORED MEETING OF THE STATE SIGNATORIES TO RESOLVE THE MASIRE ISSUE, WITH MASIRE HIMSELF JOINING AFTER CERTAIN BOTTOM LINES HAD BEEN WORKED OUT WITH KABILA. ZUMA WORRIED ABOUT THE TENUOUSNESS OF THE LUSAKA ACCORD AND THE MILITARISTIC INTENTIONS OF REBEL LEADERS SUCH AS MLC HEAD JEAN PIERRE BEMBA. PRESIDENT MBEKI INTENDS TO REVIEW THE SITUATION IN THE DRC AND TRY TO CATALYZE NEW ENERGY IN SUPPORT OF LUSAKA. ZUMA CAUTIONED ABOUT PERCEPTIONS OF TOTAL RWANDAN CONTROL OVER THE RCD. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RWANDA AND THE RCD IS NOT SIMPLE. ACCORDING TO ZUMA, THE GOR NEEDS THE RCD MORE THAN THE RCD NEEDS THE GOR, BECAUSE IF THE RCD LINKED UP WITH OR OTHERWISE COOPERATED WITH THE INTERAHAMWE, THIS WOULD GREATLY ADD TO THE GOR'S SECURITY PROBLEMS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE MET 7/17/00 IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z PRETORIA WITH SOUTH AFRICA'S FOREIGN MINISTER DR. NKOSAZANA DLAMINI-ZUMA AT HER HOME ON THE PRESIDENTIAL COMPOUND. AMBASSADOR LEWIS, SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST, DEPUTY SPECIAL ENVOY JAMES YELLIN, AND POLCOUNSELOR (NOTETAKER) ACCOMPANIED. JERRY MATSILA, DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DFA) ACTING DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR AMERICAS, SAT IN ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN SIDE. SEPTEL COVERS DISCUSSIONS ON BURUNDI AND CANDIDACY FOR THE U.N. SEAT CURRENTLY HELD BY NAMIBIA. -------------- THE ASSAULT ON MASIRE -------------- ¶3. (C) WOLPE ADVISED FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA REPORTEDLY HAD EXPRESSED TO KEY U.S. CONGRESSMEN THE VIEW THAT THE SADC ALLIES NO LONGER SUPPORTED SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS CONGOLESE NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR. WOLPE SAID NOTHING COULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO THE LUSAKA PROCESS THAN TO ACQUIESCE IN KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE. THE ISSUE, WOLPE SAID, IS NOT MASIRE BUT THE FUNDAMENTAL OPPOSITION OF DRC PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA TO THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. HE NOTED THE POSITIVE RESOLUTION ON THE DRC PASSED AT THE OAU COUNCIL OF MINISTERS MEETING IN TOGO THAT AFFIRMED FULL SUPPORT FOR LUSAKA, AND EXPLICITLY URGED THE CONGOLESE GOVERNMENT TO COOPERATE WITH FACILITATOR MASIRE. HE SAID THAT THE USG HAD NOT YET RECEIVED A READ-OUT OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE'S RECENT MEETING IN LUBUMBASHI WITH KABILA. ¶4. (C) ZUMA FULLY AGREED WITH WOLPE'S ASSESSMENT OF THE DANGER POSED BY ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, ADDING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z THAT "WE HAVE ALL BEEN GIVING CARROTS TO KABILA BUT I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS THE STICK. I LEAVE THAT TO YOU." ZUMA ADDED THAT KABILA IS REJ ECTING MASIRE, APPOINTING MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND ACTIVELY VIOLATING THE INTEGRITY OF THE CONGO. THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE IS MEANT TO ASSURE THAT THE CONGO IS INCORPORATED AS A WHOLE, SHE SAID. IF KABILA IS FORMING A PARLIAMENT, HE IS ACTUALLY SAYING "TO HELL WITH THE REST OF THE CONGO." HE IS EFFECTIVELY PARTITIONING THE COUNTRY AND BECOMING A TRUE DICTATOR, EVEN JAILING SOME OF HIS MINISTERS. -------------- IS THERE LEVERAGE? -------------- ¶5. (C) WOLPE RESPONDED THAT THE THREATBY ZIMBABWE AND ANGOLA OF THEIR MILITARY SUPPORT OF KABILA WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY EFFECTIVE LEVERAGE ON THE DRC PRESIDENT. THE USG CONTINUES THEREFORE TO SEE MUGABE AND ANGOLAN PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS AS THE KEY TO MOVING LUSAKA FORWARD. MORE GENERALLY, WOLPE SUGGESTED, IT IS THE QUINTET OF EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES (UGANDA, NAMIBIA, RWANDA, ZIMBABWE, AND ANGOLA) THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE THE STRONGEST INTEREST IN IMPLEMENTING THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. AN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3048 PAGE 01 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 6FA33E 181814Z /07 O 181540Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6641 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE USMISSION USUN NEW YORK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003941 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL USUN FOR HOLBROOKE NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z EFFORT SHOULD BE MADE BY THE EXTERNAL STATE SIGNATORIES, WOLPE SUGGESTED, TO BUILD ON THE OUTCOME OF THE LAST VICTORIA FALLS MEETING, CONSOLIDATE THEIR OWN POLITICAL UNDERSTANDING, AND SECURE AGREEMENT ON WHAT WAS REQUIRED TO BRING ALL OF THE CONGOLESE PARTIES INTO COMPLIANCE WITH LUSAKA. THE OTHER IMPORTANT ELEMENT WOULD BE TO DEVELOP A MEANS OF RE-LAUNCHING FACILITATOR MASIRE. ¶6. (C) ZUMA NOTED THAT THE OUTGOING OAU PRESIDENT TRIED TO ORGANIZE A JULY 4 MEETING IN ALGIERS. HOWEVER, AFTER INITIALLY ACCEPTING BOUTEFLIKA'S INVITATION, THEN SAID HE WOULD NOT COME IF MASIRE WERE PRESENT. ZUMA SAID SHE THOUGHT A MEETING SHOULD STILL BE CALLED, PREFERABLY ONE THAT INCLUDES KABILA. HOWEVER, IF HE DID NOT ATTEND, THE PARTIES SHOULD STILL PROCEED TO MEET AND TALK ABOUT WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT THE CONGO AND THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. ZUMA WENT ON TO SAY THAT IF KABILA INSISTS ON THE ABSENCE OF MASIRE, THE LEADERS COULD AGREE TO AN INITIAL MEETING WITH KABILA ALONE, INVITING MASIRE TO JOIN THE TALKS AFTER THEY HAD REACHED AN UNDERSTANDING WITH KABILA. "THE MEETING ITSELF IS IMPORTANT," SHE SAID, "FOR THE PROCESS TO BE EVALUATED PROPERLY AND A NEW WAY FORWARD TO BE FOUND." -------------- LUSAKA HANGS BY A THREAD -------------- ¶7. (C) ZUMA TOLD WOLPE THAT MLC LEADER JEAN PIERRE BEMBA HAD CALLED HER SEEKING ADVICE ON A FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION, AND BEMOANING HER EARLIER "ROLE" IN "STOPPING HIS MARCH ON KINSHASA." WOLPE NOTED THAT ZUMA WAS AMONG SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS, INCLUDING UN PERMANENT. REPRESENTATIVE HOLBROOKE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z AND WOLPE HIMSELF, THAT BEMBA HAD BEEN CALLING. ZUMA SAID SHE HAD ADVISED BEMBA TO "CONSULT WIDELY." BEMBA IN TURN INSISTED HE HAD THE CAPACITY TO ADVANCE AND WOULD NOT ALLOW HIS FORCES TO BE PUSHED BACK. HE DID NOT CARE TO HEAR HER STATEMENTS ON THE PROVISIONS OF THE LUSAKA ACCORD AND TOLD HER THAT LUSAKA MEANS THAT KABILA SHOULD NOT BE ATTACKING HIM. BEMBA AFFIRMED, ZUMA SAID, THAT AS FAR AS HE WAS CONCERNED LUSAKA STILL HOLDS. BUT HE ALSO TALKED ABOUT THE REALITY OF 50,000 REFUGEES HAVING BEEN CREATED AS A RESULT OF KABILA'S RECENT OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR. SHE SAID SHE TOLD BEMBA HE COULD DEFEND HIMSELF BUT HE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE OFFENSIVE. ZUMA TOLD WOLPE PRESIDENT MBEKI WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE SITUATION IN THE DRC AND WOULD TRY TO CATALYZE A NEW INITIATIVE. ZUMA EXPRESSED FEAR THAT KABILA WAS NOW PUSHING THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE TO A POINT WHERE THE LUSAKA ACCORDS WERE IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE. IF BEMBA PERCEIVES HE IS AGAINST THE WALL, SHE TOLD WOLPE, WE ARE IN DANGER OF GOING BACK TO THE PERIOD WHICH PRECEDED THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. TO WOLPE'S COMMENT THAT LUSAKA IS NOW HANGING BY A THREAD, ZUMA OBSERVED THAT THERE MIGHT NOT EVEN BE A WEEK'S TIME LEFT TO SALVAGE THE ACCORD. ¶8. (C) ZUMA TOLD WOLPE THAT SHE DID NOT KNOW IF PRESIDENT MBEKI HAD YET SPOKEN WITH MUGABE ABOUT THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS. SHE HAD RECEIVED NO READ-OUT OF THE RECENT LUMUMBASHI BETWEEN BETWEEN MUGABE AND KABILA. -------------- -- THE COMPLEXITY OF THE RWANDA/RCD-G RELATIONSHIP -------------- -- ¶9. (C) WOLPE TOLD ZUMA THAT IN HIS CURRENT TRAVEL IN THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z REGION, HE WOULD AGAIN ATTEMPT TO GET THE PARTIES TO THE DRC CONFLICT TO FOCUS ON MOVING FORWARD ON THE DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION, RESETTLEMENT AND REINTEGRATION (DDRR) OF THE NON-STATE SIGNATORIES. WOLPE EXPLAINED THAT ACCELERATED DISCUSSION OF DDRR MAY BE A WAY OF SECURING MORE RAPID DISENGAGEMENT OF THE ARMED PARTIES. WOLPE SAID HE WOULD ALSO BE DISCUSSING THE EVOLVING KISANGANI SITUATION. RCD-GOMA (RCD-G) TROOPS ARE STILL IN KISANGANI WITH THE ACQUIESCENCE OR ENCOURAGEMENT OF RWANDA. DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC TO KISANGANI WILL BE KEY TO SECURING FULL DEMILITARIZATION OF THE CITY, AND A PAKISTANI CONTINGENT MAY BE READY TO DEPLOY. ¶10. (C) ZUMA CAUTIONED THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RWANDA AND THE RCD IS NOT SIMPLE. THE IMPRESSION HAS BEEN CREATED, SHE SAID, THAT RWANDA'S POWER OVER THE RCD EXTENDS TO THE POINT WHEREBY IF THE RCD WAS ORDERED BY RWANDA TO SIGN AN AGREEMENT, IT WOULD HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO COMPLY. SHE SAID SHE HAD ASKED RWANDA ABOUT THIS RELATIONSHIP. SHE WAS TOLD THAT RCD MEMBERS LIVED WITHIN THEIR OWN COUNTRY AND WERE NOT MERE EXTENSIONS OF RWANDA. IN FACT, THE RWANDANS HAD EXPAINED TO HER, ZUMA SAID, THAT RWANDA NEEDED THE RCD MORE THAN THE RCD NEEDED RWANDA. THE RCD HELD A POWER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3051 PAGE 01 HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 6FA34D 181815Z /07 O 181540Z JUL 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6642 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE USMISSION USUN NEW YORK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003941 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL USUN FOR HOLBROOKE NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z OVER RWANDA WITH DEADLY CONSEQUENCE -- THE ABILITY TO LINK WITH THE INTERAHAMWE, LOCATED IN THE CONGO, TO OPERATE IN GOMA ANDOTHER AREAS. THE RCD IS NOT AN EXILE ORGANIZATION, HERRWANDAN COLLEAGUES HAD TOLD HER, SO WHY DO PEOPLE THINK RWANDA CAN DICTATE TO THEM? ZUMA SAID THE RWANDANS TOLD HER THEY CAN ONLY HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RCD THAT IS OF VIRTUAL EQUALS. IN SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CONGOLESE, ZUMA SAID, SHE HAS VERIFIED THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS RELATIONSHIP. YES, RWANDA HAS SOME INFLUENCE WITH THE RCD, BUT IT IS NOT TO THE EXTENT PEOPLE THINK. ¶11. (C) WOLPE COUNTERED THAT THE RCD-G'S PRESENCE IN KISANGANI SERVES RWANDA'S STRATEGIC CONCERNS. INDEED, RWANDA NEEDED THE RCD-GOMA, BECAUSE RWANDA FEARED THAT, IN THE ABSENCE OF MONUC DEPLOYMENT, KABILA OR THE MLC MIGHT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE VACUUM CREATED BY RWANDAN AND UGANDAN WITHDRAWAL FROM THE CITY. ZUMA, EFFECTIVELY CONTRADICTING HER EARLIER EMPHASIS ON RCD-G'S AUTONOMY, SAID SHE DID NOT THINK RCD-G WAS STRONG ON ITS OWN. IF RWANDA PULLED OUT OF THE DRC, ZUMA SAID, IT IS UNLIKELY THE RCD COULD PREVENT KABILA'S FORCES FROM COMING INTO KISANGANI. ¶12. (C) ZUMA RETURNED TO HER POINT THAT TO TREAT RCD-GOMA SIMPLY AS THE SURROGATE OF RWANDA WOULD INEVITABLY CREATE PROBLEMS. RCD-G MEMBERS, SHE SAID, MAKE THE POINT THAT THEY ARE NOT FOREIGNERS IN KISANGANI AND RESENT ANY SUGGESTION THAT THEY BE TREATED LIKE FOREIGNERS IN THEIR OWN LAND. THAT IS WHY, ZUMA ASSERTED, THAT THE RCD-GOMA BELIEVES ITS PRESENCE IN KISANGANI IS NOT A VIOLATION OF THE DEMILITARIZATION AGREEMENT THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA HAD REACHED WITH MONUC. ZUMA WAS SURPRISED TO LEARN, FROM WOLPE, THAT RCD-GOMA'S CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z BIZIMA KARAHA HAD PRESENTED TO WOLPE IN NEW YORK A SIGNED COPY OF A SEPARATE AGREEMENT THAT THE RCD-GOMA HAD ENTERED INTO DIRECTLY WITH MONUC, TO ACCEPT THE SAME DEMILITARIZATION TERMS THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA HAD PREVIOUSLY ACCEPTED. WOLPE TOLD ZUMA OF KARAHA'S DISCOMFORT WHEN HE WAS CONFRONTED WITH THE RCD-GOMA'S BACKSLIDING FROM THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT. ¶13. (C) COMMENT. THE FOREIGN MINISTER APPEARS TO HAVE A PARTICULARLY SOFT SPOT IN HER HEART FOR RWANDA, ACCEPTING AT FACE VALUE SOME ASSERTIONS OF BOTH RWANDA AND RCD-GOMA THAT SHOULD PROBABLY BE SCRUTINIZED MORE CAREFULLY. HOWEVER, IN ALMOST ALL RESPECTS, THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS CLOSELY TRACKS THAT OF THE USG. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >