FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003941

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH
SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE


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PAGE 02 HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z
CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: SOUTH AFRICA'S FOREIGN MINISTER DR. NKOSAZANA
DLAMINI-ZUMA AGREED WITH SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE'S
ASSESSMENT THAT NOTHING WAS MORE DANGEROUS FOR THE FUTURE
OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS THAN ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION
OF DRC FACILITATOR SIR KETUMILE MASIRE. ZUMA REVIEWED KABILA'S
ROLE IN EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE MASIRE, AND COMPLAINED ABOUT
BROAD COMPLICITY OF STATES IN ISSUING CARROTS TO KABILA, BUT
NOT APPLYING THE STICK. IN ZUMA'S VIEW, KABILA'S EFFORTS TO FORM
HIS OWN CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY, REJECT MASIRE, AND FOLLOW AN
APPROACH THAT EXCLUDES A LARGE PART OF THE CONGO FROM THE
SOLUTION, EFFECTIVELY SAYS, "TO HELL WITH THE REST OF THE CONGO."
THIS IS A FORMULA, SHE BELIEVES, FOR THE ULTIMATE PARTITION OF
THE DRC. ZUMA MUSED THAT IT WOULD BE TIMELY TO CONVENE AN
OAU-SPONSORED MEETING OF THE STATE SIGNATORIES TO RESOLVE THE
MASIRE ISSUE, WITH MASIRE HIMSELF JOINING AFTER CERTAIN BOTTOM
LINES HAD BEEN WORKED OUT WITH KABILA. ZUMA WORRIED ABOUT
THE TENUOUSNESS OF THE LUSAKA ACCORD AND THE MILITARISTIC
INTENTIONS OF REBEL LEADERS SUCH AS MLC HEAD JEAN PIERRE BEMBA.
PRESIDENT MBEKI INTENDS TO REVIEW THE SITUATION IN THE DRC AND
TRY TO CATALYZE NEW ENERGY IN SUPPORT OF LUSAKA. ZUMA
CAUTIONED ABOUT PERCEPTIONS OF TOTAL RWANDAN CONTROL OVER
THE RCD. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RWANDA AND THE RCD IS NOT
SIMPLE. ACCORDING TO ZUMA, THE GOR NEEDS THE RCD MORE THAN THE
RCD NEEDS THE GOR, BECAUSE IF THE RCD LINKED UP WITH OR
OTHERWISE COOPERATED WITH THE INTERAHAMWE, THIS WOULD
GREATLY ADD TO THE GOR'S SECURITY PROBLEMS. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE MET 7/17/00 IN
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z
PRETORIA WITH SOUTH AFRICA'S FOREIGN MINISTER DR. NKOSAZANA
DLAMINI-ZUMA AT HER HOME ON THE PRESIDENTIAL COMPOUND. AMBASSADOR
LEWIS, SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST, DEPUTY SPECIAL ENVOY
JAMES YELLIN, AND POLCOUNSELOR (NOTETAKER) ACCOMPANIED. JERRY
MATSILA, DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DFA) ACTING DEPUTY
DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR AMERICAS, SAT IN ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN SIDE.
SEPTEL COVERS DISCUSSIONS ON BURUNDI AND CANDIDACY FOR THE
U.N. SEAT CURRENTLY HELD BY NAMIBIA.

--------------
THE ASSAULT ON MASIRE
--------------


3. (C) WOLPE ADVISED FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA THAT NAMIBIAN
PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA REPORTEDLY HAD EXPRESSED TO KEY U.S.
CONGRESSMEN THE VIEW THAT THE SADC ALLIES NO LONGER
SUPPORTED SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS CONGOLESE NATIONAL DIALOGUE
FACILITATOR. WOLPE SAID NOTHING COULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO
THE LUSAKA PROCESS THAN TO ACQUIESCE IN KABILA'S REJECTION OF
MASIRE. THE ISSUE, WOLPE SAID, IS NOT MASIRE BUT THE
FUNDAMENTAL OPPOSITION OF DRC PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA TO THE
INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. HE NOTED THE POSITIVE RESOLUTION ON
THE DRC PASSED AT THE OAU COUNCIL OF MINISTERS MEETING IN TOGO
THAT AFFIRMED FULL SUPPORT FOR LUSAKA, AND EXPLICITLY URGED
THE CONGOLESE GOVERNMENT TO COOPERATE WITH FACILITATOR
MASIRE. HE SAID THAT THE USG HAD NOT YET RECEIVED A
READ-OUT OF ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE'S RECENT MEETING
IN LUBUMBASHI WITH KABILA.


4. (C) ZUMA FULLY AGREED WITH WOLPE'S ASSESSMENT OF THE DANGER
POSED BY ACQUIESCENCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, ADDING
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03941 01 OF 03 181814Z
THAT "WE HAVE ALL BEEN GIVING CARROTS TO KABILA BUT I DON'T KNOW
WHAT IS THE STICK. I LEAVE THAT TO YOU." ZUMA ADDED THAT KABILA IS REJ
ECTING
MASIRE, APPOINTING MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND ACTIVELY
VIOLATING THE INTEGRITY OF THE CONGO. THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE
IS MEANT TO ASSURE THAT THE CONGO IS INCORPORATED AS A WHOLE, SHE
SAID. IF KABILA IS FORMING A PARLIAMENT, HE IS ACTUALLY SAYING
"TO HELL WITH THE REST OF THE CONGO." HE IS EFFECTIVELY
PARTITIONING THE COUNTRY AND BECOMING A TRUE DICTATOR, EVEN
JAILING SOME OF HIS MINISTERS.

--------------
IS THERE LEVERAGE?
--------------


5. (C) WOLPE RESPONDED THAT THE THREATBY ZIMBABWE AND ANGOLA OF
THEIR MILITARY SUPPORT OF KABILA WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY
EFFECTIVE LEVERAGE ON THE DRC PRESIDENT. THE USG CONTINUES
THEREFORE TO SEE MUGABE AND ANGOLAN PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS AS THE
KEY TO MOVING LUSAKA FORWARD. MORE GENERALLY, WOLPE SUGGESTED,
IT IS THE QUINTET OF EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES (UGANDA, NAMIBIA,
RWANDA, ZIMBABWE, AND ANGOLA) THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
STRONGEST INTEREST IN IMPLEMENTING THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. AN

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00
SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 6FA33E 181814Z /07
O 181540Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6641
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003941

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH
SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE

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PAGE 02 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z
EFFORT SHOULD BE MADE BY THE EXTERNAL STATE SIGNATORIES,
WOLPE SUGGESTED, TO BUILD ON THE OUTCOME OF THE LAST VICTORIA
FALLS MEETING, CONSOLIDATE THEIR OWN POLITICAL UNDERSTANDING,
AND SECURE AGREEMENT ON WHAT WAS REQUIRED TO BRING ALL OF THE
CONGOLESE PARTIES INTO COMPLIANCE WITH LUSAKA. THE OTHER
IMPORTANT ELEMENT WOULD BE TO DEVELOP A MEANS OF RE-LAUNCHING
FACILITATOR MASIRE.


6. (C) ZUMA NOTED THAT THE OUTGOING OAU PRESIDENT TRIED TO
ORGANIZE A JULY 4 MEETING IN ALGIERS. HOWEVER, AFTER INITIALLY
ACCEPTING BOUTEFLIKA'S INVITATION, THEN SAID HE WOULD NOT COME
IF MASIRE WERE PRESENT. ZUMA SAID SHE THOUGHT A MEETING SHOULD
STILL BE CALLED, PREFERABLY ONE THAT INCLUDES KABILA. HOWEVER,
IF HE DID NOT ATTEND, THE PARTIES SHOULD STILL PROCEED TO MEET
AND TALK ABOUT WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT THE CONGO AND THE
INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. ZUMA WENT ON TO SAY THAT IF KABILA
INSISTS ON THE ABSENCE OF MASIRE, THE LEADERS COULD AGREE TO
AN INITIAL MEETING WITH KABILA ALONE, INVITING MASIRE TO JOIN
THE TALKS AFTER THEY HAD REACHED AN UNDERSTANDING WITH KABILA.
"THE MEETING ITSELF IS IMPORTANT," SHE SAID, "FOR THE PROCESS
TO BE EVALUATED PROPERLY AND A NEW WAY FORWARD TO BE FOUND."

--------------
LUSAKA HANGS BY A THREAD
--------------


7. (C) ZUMA TOLD WOLPE THAT MLC LEADER JEAN PIERRE BEMBA HAD
CALLED HER SEEKING ADVICE ON A FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION, AND
BEMOANING HER EARLIER "ROLE" IN "STOPPING HIS MARCH ON
KINSHASA." WOLPE NOTED THAT ZUMA WAS AMONG SEVERAL
INDIVIDUALS, INCLUDING UN PERMANENT. REPRESENTATIVE HOLBROOKE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z
AND WOLPE HIMSELF, THAT BEMBA HAD BEEN CALLING. ZUMA SAID
SHE HAD ADVISED BEMBA TO "CONSULT WIDELY." BEMBA IN TURN
INSISTED HE HAD THE CAPACITY TO ADVANCE AND WOULD NOT ALLOW
HIS FORCES TO BE PUSHED BACK. HE DID NOT CARE TO HEAR HER
STATEMENTS ON THE PROVISIONS OF THE LUSAKA ACCORD AND TOLD
HER THAT LUSAKA MEANS THAT KABILA SHOULD NOT BE ATTACKING HIM.
BEMBA AFFIRMED, ZUMA SAID, THAT AS FAR AS HE WAS CONCERNED
LUSAKA STILL HOLDS. BUT HE ALSO TALKED ABOUT THE REALITY OF
50,000 REFUGEES HAVING BEEN CREATED AS A RESULT OF KABILA'S
RECENT OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR. SHE SAID SHE TOLD BEMBA HE
COULD DEFEND HIMSELF BUT HE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE OFFENSIVE.
ZUMA TOLD WOLPE PRESIDENT MBEKI WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE
SITUATION IN THE DRC AND WOULD TRY TO CATALYZE A NEW
INITIATIVE. ZUMA EXPRESSED FEAR THAT KABILA WAS NOW PUSHING
THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE TO A POINT WHERE THE LUSAKA ACCORDS WERE
IN DANGER OF COLLAPSE. IF BEMBA PERCEIVES HE IS AGAINST THE
WALL, SHE TOLD WOLPE, WE ARE IN DANGER OF GOING BACK TO THE
PERIOD WHICH PRECEDED THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. TO WOLPE'S COMMENT
THAT LUSAKA IS NOW HANGING BY A THREAD, ZUMA OBSERVED THAT
THERE MIGHT NOT EVEN BE A WEEK'S TIME LEFT TO SALVAGE THE ACCORD.


8. (C) ZUMA TOLD WOLPE THAT SHE DID NOT KNOW IF PRESIDENT MBEKI
HAD YET SPOKEN WITH MUGABE ABOUT THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS. SHE
HAD RECEIVED NO READ-OUT OF THE RECENT LUMUMBASHI BETWEEN
BETWEEN MUGABE AND KABILA.

-------------- --
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE RWANDA/RCD-G RELATIONSHIP
-------------- --


9. (C) WOLPE TOLD ZUMA THAT IN HIS CURRENT TRAVEL IN THE
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03941 02 OF 03 181814Z
REGION, HE WOULD AGAIN ATTEMPT TO GET THE PARTIES TO THE
DRC CONFLICT TO FOCUS ON MOVING FORWARD ON THE DISARMAMENT,
DEMOBILIZATION, RESETTLEMENT AND REINTEGRATION (DDRR) OF
THE NON-STATE SIGNATORIES. WOLPE EXPLAINED THAT ACCELERATED
DISCUSSION OF DDRR MAY BE A WAY OF SECURING MORE RAPID
DISENGAGEMENT OF THE ARMED PARTIES. WOLPE SAID HE WOULD
ALSO BE DISCUSSING THE EVOLVING KISANGANI SITUATION.
RCD-GOMA (RCD-G) TROOPS ARE STILL IN KISANGANI WITH THE
ACQUIESCENCE OR ENCOURAGEMENT OF RWANDA. DEPLOYMENT OF
MONUC TO KISANGANI WILL BE KEY TO SECURING FULL
DEMILITARIZATION OF THE CITY, AND A PAKISTANI CONTINGENT
MAY BE READY TO DEPLOY.


10. (C) ZUMA CAUTIONED THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RWANDA
AND THE RCD IS NOT SIMPLE. THE IMPRESSION HAS BEEN CREATED,
SHE SAID, THAT RWANDA'S POWER OVER THE RCD EXTENDS TO THE
POINT WHEREBY IF THE RCD WAS ORDERED BY RWANDA TO SIGN AN
AGREEMENT, IT WOULD HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO COMPLY. SHE
SAID SHE HAD ASKED RWANDA ABOUT THIS RELATIONSHIP. SHE WAS
TOLD THAT RCD MEMBERS LIVED WITHIN THEIR OWN COUNTRY AND
WERE NOT MERE EXTENSIONS OF RWANDA. IN FACT, THE RWANDANS
HAD EXPAINED TO HER, ZUMA SAID, THAT RWANDA NEEDED THE
RCD MORE THAN THE RCD NEEDED RWANDA. THE RCD HELD A POWER

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00
SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 6FA34D 181815Z /07
O 181540Z JUL 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6642
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003941

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL

USUN FOR HOLBROOKE

NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2010
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS CF SF
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZUMA SHARES VIEWS ON DRC WITH
SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z
OVER RWANDA WITH DEADLY CONSEQUENCE -- THE ABILITY TO LINK
WITH THE INTERAHAMWE, LOCATED IN THE CONGO, TO OPERATE IN
GOMA ANDOTHER AREAS. THE RCD IS NOT AN EXILE ORGANIZATION,
HERRWANDAN COLLEAGUES HAD TOLD HER, SO WHY DO PEOPLE THINK
RWANDA CAN DICTATE TO THEM? ZUMA SAID THE RWANDANS TOLD HER
THEY CAN ONLY HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RCD THAT IS OF
VIRTUAL EQUALS. IN SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CONGOLESE,
ZUMA SAID, SHE HAS VERIFIED THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS RELATIONSHIP.
YES, RWANDA HAS SOME INFLUENCE WITH THE RCD, BUT IT IS NOT TO
THE EXTENT PEOPLE THINK.


11. (C) WOLPE COUNTERED THAT THE RCD-G'S PRESENCE IN KISANGANI
SERVES RWANDA'S STRATEGIC CONCERNS. INDEED, RWANDA NEEDED
THE RCD-GOMA, BECAUSE RWANDA FEARED THAT, IN THE ABSENCE OF
MONUC DEPLOYMENT, KABILA OR THE MLC MIGHT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE VACUUM CREATED BY RWANDAN AND UGANDAN WITHDRAWAL FROM THE
CITY. ZUMA, EFFECTIVELY CONTRADICTING HER EARLIER EMPHASIS ON
RCD-G'S AUTONOMY, SAID SHE DID NOT THINK RCD-G WAS STRONG ON
ITS OWN. IF RWANDA PULLED OUT OF THE DRC, ZUMA SAID, IT IS
UNLIKELY THE RCD COULD PREVENT KABILA'S FORCES FROM COMING
INTO KISANGANI.


12. (C) ZUMA RETURNED TO HER POINT THAT TO TREAT RCD-GOMA
SIMPLY AS THE SURROGATE OF RWANDA WOULD INEVITABLY CREATE
PROBLEMS. RCD-G MEMBERS, SHE SAID, MAKE THE POINT THAT THEY
ARE NOT FOREIGNERS IN KISANGANI AND RESENT ANY SUGGESTION
THAT THEY BE TREATED LIKE FOREIGNERS IN THEIR OWN LAND.
THAT IS WHY, ZUMA ASSERTED, THAT THE RCD-GOMA BELIEVES ITS
PRESENCE IN KISANGANI IS NOT A VIOLATION OF THE DEMILITARIZATION
AGREEMENT THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA HAD REACHED WITH MONUC.
ZUMA WAS SURPRISED TO LEARN, FROM WOLPE, THAT RCD-GOMA'S
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03941 03 OF 03 181815Z
BIZIMA KARAHA HAD PRESENTED TO WOLPE IN NEW YORK A SIGNED
COPY OF A SEPARATE AGREEMENT THAT THE RCD-GOMA HAD ENTERED
INTO DIRECTLY WITH MONUC, TO ACCEPT THE SAME DEMILITARIZATION
TERMS THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA HAD PREVIOUSLY ACCEPTED. WOLPE
TOLD ZUMA OF KARAHA'S DISCOMFORT WHEN HE WAS CONFRONTED WITH
THE RCD-GOMA'S BACKSLIDING FROM THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT.


13. (C) COMMENT. THE FOREIGN MINISTER APPEARS TO HAVE A
PARTICULARLY SOFT SPOT IN HER HEART FOR RWANDA, ACCEPTING AT
FACE VALUE SOME ASSERTIONS OF BOTH RWANDA AND RCD-GOMA THAT
SHOULD PROBABLY BE SCRUTINIZED MORE CAREFULLY. HOWEVER,
IN ALMOST ALL RESPECTS, THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S ASSESSMENT
OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS CLOSELY TRACKS THAT
OF THE USG. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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