MUGABE AND MNANGAGWA TO GO TO CONGO TO DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003629 SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO AF S/E HOWARD WOLPE NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/10 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03629 050804Z TAGS: PGOV PREL CG ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE AND MNANGAGWA TO GO TO CONGO TO DISCUSS PROBLEMS WITH NATIONAL DIALOGUE CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD REASONS 1.5 B/D. ¶1. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD CALLED MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA THE AFTERNOON OF JULY 4 TO LEARN WHERE ZIMBABWE STANDS ON THE QUESTION OF FORMER BOTSWANA PRESIDENT SIR KETUMILE MASIRE REMAINING AS THE NATIONAL OIALOGUE FACILITATOR IN THE CONGO. NOT ANSWERING THE QUESTION DIRECTLY, THE MINISTER, WHO IS PRESIDENT MUGABE'S POINT MAN ON SENSITIVE ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE CONGO, INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HE, AND MAYBE A FOREIGN MINISTRY REPRESENTATIVE, PLANNED TO TRAVEL TO LUBUMBASHI AT A STILL UNSPECIFIED DATE THE WEEK OF JULY 10 TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT KABILA AND HIS ADVISORS TO DISCUSS THIS AND OTHER MATTERS RELATED TO THE CONGO. MNANGAGWA WOULD NOT BE DRAWN ON WHETHER PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD USE HIS INFLUENCE TO PUSH KABILA FURTHER TO REVERSE HIS PUBLIC STAND AGAINST MASIRE. ¶2. (C) THE AMBASSADOR THEN TOLD THE MINISTER THAT WASHINGTON WAS SEIZED WITH THE ISSUE AND HOPED THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE COULD PREVAIL ON HIS CONGOLESE COUNTERPART TO ACCEPT MASIRE. THE MINISTER AND THE AMBASSADOR DISCUSSED THE POSSIBILITY OF SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE VISITING HARARE SOON TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT. MNANGAGWA REPLIED THAT THAT WAS ALL FINE, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03629 050804Z BUT SUGGESTED THAT S/E WOLPE CONSIDER DEFERRING HIS TRAVEL TO THE WEEK OF JULY 17 OR 24, DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LUBUMBASHI MEETING TOOK PLACE. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: CLEARLY MUGABE WANTS TO BRING HIS TROOPS HOME, BUT WE SENSE THAT HE WILL NOT FALL ON HIS SWORD TO PRESERVE MASIRE IN THE ROLE OF FACILITATOR. MUGABE'S RELATIONSHIP WITH KABILA IS TOO IMPORTANT TO HIM TO SPOIL IT OVER AN ISSUE OF PRINCIPLE THAT PROBABLY IS NOT VITAL TO ZIMBABWE. WE WELCOME A VISIT BY S/E WOLPE TO DISCUSS THE ISSUE, BUT SUGGEST HE NOT COME WITH GREAT EXPECTATIONS OF PERSUADING THE ZIMBABWEANS OTHERWISE. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >