OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES WILL STRESS POST-ELECTION RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003545 SIPDIS AF FOR P/DAS POWELL AND DAS SCHNEIDMAN AF/S FOR A. RENDER, D. BOOTH, AND T. FAULK NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA WJEFFERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SF SUBJECT: OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES WILL STRESS POST-ELECTION RECONCILIATION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03545 01 OF 02 290913Z CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: FOLLOWING ZIMBABWE'S JUNE 24-25 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, REPRESENTATIVES OF OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES HERE HAVE STATED THEIR INTENTION TO REACH OUT TO BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) AND URGE BOTH SIDES TO WORK TOWARD NATIONAL RECONCILIATION. PARTICIPANTS IN A JUNE 27 MEETING OF THE AFRICAN DIPLOMATIC CORPS STRESSED THIS THEME, AS DID SENIOR SOUTH AFRICAN PARLIAMENTARIAN EBRAHIM EBRAHIM IN A JUNE 28 CONVERSATION WITH US. EBRAHIM HAD MET THE PREVIOUS EVENING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND FOUND HIM TO BE IN A CONCILIATORY FRAME OF MIND, ALTHOUGH STILL PREOCCUPIED WITH PERCEIVED PLOTS AGAINST HIM. END SUMMARY. READOUT ON SOUTH AFRICAN MEETING WITH MUGABE -------------- ¶2. (C) IN A JUNE 28 CONVERSATION WITH CAPE TOWN- BASED TDY POLOFF, SENIOR SOUTH AFRICAN PARLIAMENTARIAN EBRAHIM EBRAHIM DISCUSSED SOUTH AFRICA'S PLANS FOR NEXT STEPS REGARDING RELATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE FOLLOWING THE JUNE 24-25 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. EBRAHIM, WHO CHAIRS PARLIAMENT'S FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE AND SITS ON THE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE OF THE ANC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, HAD PARTICIPATED IN PRESIDENT MUGABE'S JUNE 27 MEETING WITH THREE MEMBERS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03545 01 OF 02 290913Z PARLIAMENTARY OBSERVER DELEGATION. EBRAHIM SAID THAT HE HAD FOUND MUGABE TO BE IN A FAIRLY CONCILIATORY FRAME OF MIND AND FOCUSED ON RECONCILIATION IN THE WAKE OF THE VIOLENCE THAT TOOK PLACE IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE ELECTIONS. MUGABE HAD ACKNOWLEDGED, EBRAHIM SAID, THAT IT WAS NECESSARY TO MAKE SOME SORT OF GESTURE TO VICTIMS OF THE VIOLENCE. HOWEVER, EBRAHIM ALSO FOUND THAT MUGABE WAS STILL PREOCCUPIED WITH SUPPOSED CONSPIRACIES AGAINST HIM BY THE BRITISH AND OTHERS. ¶3. (C) SOUTH AFRICA, EBRAHIM TOLD POLOFF, WILL REMAIN CLOSELY ENGAGED WITH ZIMBABWE TO ENCOURAGE A PROCESS OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION AND THE REVITALIZATION OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY. HE SAID THAT HE WAS PLEASED WITH THE USG'S ENCOURAGEMENT OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT'S QUIET DIPLOMACY APPROACH, AND TOLD POLOFF THAT A MAJOR PRIORITY FOR THE SOUTH AFRICANS WILL BE ENCOURAGING THE HEALING OF ZIMBABWE'S RIFT WITH BRITAIN. ¶4. (C) THE SAG, EBRAHIM SAID, WILL SEEK TO STRENGTHEN ITS TIES WITH BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC AND WILL ENCOURAGE MUGABE TO OFFER A FEW CABINET POSITIONS TO THE MDC. ASKED ABOUT STRAINS BETWEEN THE MDC AND THE ANC, EBRAHIM, WHO WAS ABOUT TO MEET WITH SENIOR MDC MEMBER WELSHMAN NCUBE BEFORE DEPARTING FOR SOUTH AFRICA, ACKNOWLEDGED THE RIFT AND SAID IT WAS TIME THAT IT WAS REPAIRED. EBRAHIM NOTED THAT MUGABE REMAINED SUSPICIOUS OF THE MDC'S SUPPOSED FOREIGN FINANCIAL BACKING, AND IMPLICITLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03545 01 OF 02 290913Z EXPRESSED AGREEMENT WITH THIS SUSPICION BY POINTING OUT THAT A WELL-ORGANIZED MDC RALLY EBRAHIM HAD RECENTLY ATTENDED INCLUDED A SLICKLY PRODUCED VIDEO THAT "COULD HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY SAATCHI AND SAATCHI." (NOTE: AN MDC OFFICIAL HAS TOLD US THAT THE PARTY MADE A MISTAKE IN REACHING OUT TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, SOUTH AFRICA'S OFFICIAL OPPOSITION, BEFORE THE ANC. SHE THOUGHT THE MDC AND ANC COULD IMPROVE THEIR RELATIONS, BUT OPINED THAT THE ANC HAD LEGITIMATE CONCERNS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LABOR UNION COSATU, WHICH IS A COALITION PARTNER OF THE ANC, WOULD TAKE A LESSON FROM THE LABOR-BASED MDC AND CHALLENGE THE ANC FROM WITHOUT. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) EBRAHIM TOLD POLOFF THAT HE WAS PLEASED WITH THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION. THERE WAS ONLY A NARROW RANGE OF OUTCOMES IN WHICH PEACE WOULD BE POSSIBLE, AND ZANU-PF'S NARROW VICTORY FELL WITHIN THIS RANGE. IN PARTICULAR, A ZANU-PF LOSS COULD HAVE BEEN DESTABILIZING. EBRAHIM NOTED THAT, UNLIKE IN THE PAST, WHEN ZIMBABWE WAS ESSENTIALLY A ONE- PARTY STATE, THERE IS NOW A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM. HE REJECTED THE VIEW OF THE EU MISSION AND OTHERS THAT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0437 PAGE 01 HARARE 03545 02 OF 02 290913Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 684F0D 290913Z /38 P 290914Z JUN 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6468 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003545 SIPDIS AF FOR P/DAS POWELL AND DAS SCHNEIDMAN AF/S FOR A. RENDER, D. BOOTH, AND T. FAULK NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA WJEFFERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SF SUBJECT: OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES WILL STRESS POST-ELECTION RECONCILIATION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03545 02 OF 02 290913Z PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE MILITATED AGAINST A DETERMINATION THAT THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION WAS FREE AND FAIR. WHILE NOT RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT ZANU-PF HAD WON SOME SEATS UNFAIRLY, EBRAHIM OPINED THAT THE ELECTION HAD SUBSTANTIALLY REFLECTED THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. THE MDC, HE SAID, SHOULD ACCEPT THE OUTCOME IN THE INTEREST OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION. HE RECALLED THAT THERE HAD BEEN WIDESPREAD DOUBT WITHIN THE ANC ABOUT THE RIVAL INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY'S VICTORY IN KWAZULU-NATAL (EBRAHIM'S HOME AREA) IN SOUTH AFRICA'S FIRST DEMOCRATIC ELECTION IN 1994, BUT THE PARTY HAD ACCEPTED THE INKATHA WIN IN THE INTEREST OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION. OTHER AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS URGE "UNITY IN DIVERSITY" -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) TANZANIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER ALEXANDER MUGANDA TOLD THE AMBASSADOR JUNE 28 THAT THE AFRICAN AMBASSADORS HERE HAD MET THE DAY BEFORE TO DISCUSS POST-ELECTION ENGAGEMENT WITH THE GOZ. THE AFRICAN AMBASSADORS AGREED THAT IT WAS NECESSARY TO HELP ZIMBABWE HEAL ITS WOUNDS; ACCEPTANCE OF THE ELECTION RESULTS BY BOTH SIDES WOULD FOSTER THIS. THE AMBASSADORS PLAN TO ENCOURAGE ZIMBABWEANS TO EMBRACE "UNITY IN DIVERSITY" AS A REAL MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM EMERGES HERE. ¶7. (C) THE AFRICAN AMBASSADOR AGREED AT THE MEETING THAT THERE ARE REAL WOUNDS THAT MUST BE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03545 02 OF 02 290913Z HEALED. A VILLAGER WHOSE HOUSE HAS BEEN BURNED DOWN NEEDS TO HEAR WORDS OF RECONCILIATION FROM THE LEADERSHIP. THE AMBASSADORS PLAN TO ASK THEIR CAPITALS FOR GUIDANCE ON NEXT STEPS; IN DOING SO THEY WILL ENCOURAGE A POLICY OF QUIET COMMUNICATION WITH BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC. THE TANZANIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER HAD TOLD AMBASSADOR MCDONALD SHORTLY BEFORE THE ELECTION THAT MOST OF THE AFRICAN AMBASSADORS HAD MET AS A GROUP WITH ZANU-PF NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO TO SEND A MESSAGE THAT CONTINUED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WOULD NOT BE TOLERATED. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: THE NON-CONFRONTATIONAL STANCE SOUTH AFRICA AND OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES TOOK BEFORE THE ELECTIONS MAY AFFORD THEM GREATER ENTREE TO ZIMBABWE'S LEADERSHIP THAN THAT GRANTED TO OTHER COUNTRIES. IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE THAT THEY PLAN TO REACH OUT TO ALL SIDES AND THAT MESSAGE THEY DELIVER IS LIKELY TO BE ONE OF RECONCILIATION. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >