THE NEW ZIMBABWEAN PARLIAMENT: THE GLOVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003521 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER PASS USAID FOR A/AID, DAA/AFR VERNE NEWTON, AND AFR/SA CREINTSMA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03521 01 OF 02 281310Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/10 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PREL ZI US SUBJECT: THE NEW ZIMBABWEAN PARLIAMENT: THE GLOVES WILL BE OFF REF: HARARE 3506 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWE HAS CHANGED FOREVER AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION THAT BROADENED PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY IN THE COUNTRY. THE "LOSERS" IN THIS ELECTION, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC),WILL TAKE THEIR ELECTORAL GRIEVANCES TO COURT, NOT THE STREET, THUS MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE. WE EXPECT IT WILL PLAY THE ROLE OF VOCAL OPPOSITION IN PARLIAMENT AND ATTEMPT TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE DEBATE THERE TO THE COUNTRY'S FOUNDERING ECONOMY. PRESIDENT MUGABE IS IN CRUSADE MODE AND WILL LEAD HIS RADICALIZED PARTY IN SEARCH OF THE HOLY GRAIL OF LAND REDISTRIBUTION. WE THINK HE VIEWS THE MDC'S SHOWING IN THE POLLS AS A SETBACK FROM WHICH HE MUST REGROUP WITH A VIEW TO RUNNING AGAIN IN 2002 AGAINST MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. END COMMENT. ¶2. (C) THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN IN ZIMBABWE AND ELECTED A NEW PARLIAMENT WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED 57 SEATS FOR AN OPPOSITION PARTY, THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). IN THE CONTEXT OF AFRICA IN GENERAL, THIS IS QUITE A REMARKABLE FEAT. THOUGH THE MDC "LOST" BECAUSE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03521 01 OF 02 281310Z IT GOT A FEWER NUMBER OF SEATS THAN ZANU-PF AT 62, IT MAY ACTUALLY HAVE RECEIVED THE MAJORITY OF THE VOTES CAST. WE DO NOT, AS A RESULT, EXPECT ITS FOLLOWERS TO RESORT TO VIOLENCE IN PROTEST OF A STOLEN ELECTION. RATHER, THE MDC IS SET TO CHALLENGE THE CONDUCT OF THE ELECTION VIA RECOUNT DEMANDS AND PERHAPS COURT CHALLENGES IN UP TO 20 CONSTITUENCIES. THE GROUNDS FOR THE LEGAL CHALLENGES LIKELY WILL BE PRE-ELECTION AND ELECTION DAY INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE, AND VOTERS' ROLL OR PROCEDURAL IRREGULARITIES THAT EFFECTIVELY DISENFRANCHISED MANY INDIVIDUALS. ¶3. (C) THE ELECTION SWEPT OUT A NUMBER OF ZANU-PF STALWARTS AND MEMBERS OF THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO, SUCH AS HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA, MINES ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM MINISTER S.K. MOYO, ZANU-PF WOMEN'S LEAGUE PRESIDENT TENJIWE LESABE, JUSTICE LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS MINISTER EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, AND A MODERATE LIKE MASVINGO PROVINCIAL CHAIRMAN DZIKAMAI MAVHAIRE. IT SEATED THE HARD-LINERS IN THE PARTY, SUCH AS MASHONALAND CENTRAL GOVERNOR BORDER GEZI; CHEN CHIMUTENGWENDE, THE MINISTER OF INFORMATION, POSTS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS; ZANU-PF SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION DIDYMUS MUTASA; MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI; AND NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS' ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT CHENJERAI HITLER HUNZVI. THEY REPRESENT REMOTE RURAL CONSTITUENCIES WHERE THE MDC HAD FEWER POLLING AGENTS AND VOTER INTIMIDATION SEEMS TO HAVE WORKED, IN ADDITION TO THE STRATEGIC PLACEMENT OF POSTAL VOTES TO SWING KEY OUTCOMES, AS THEY WON BY MARGINS THAT DID NOT CONFORM TO THE ESTABLISHED PATTERN. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03521 01 OF 02 281310Z TOTALLY UNKNOWN NAMES OR INDIVIDUALS WHO PREVIOUSLY NEVER DID VERY WELL WON MASSIVELY IN SUCH CONSTITUENCIES. THE SIGNAL BEING SENT BY THESE ELECTORAL VICTORIES IS THAT THE ZANU-PF PARTY IS IDEOLOGICALLY POLARIZED, AND THAT THERE WILL BE NO ROOM FOR INDEPENDENT BEHAVIOR OR DISSENT. THE HARD-LINE RADICALS NOW HAVE THE UPPER HAND. IN OUR JUDGMENT MUGABE WILL INTERPRET HAVING CLINCHED 62 SEATS THROUGH THE FIRST-PAST-THE-POST METHOD AS A CLEAR VICTORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN IN MANNER AS RUTHLESS AS BEFORE. ¶4. (C) THE PRESIDENT'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS WILL BE HIS ANNOUNCEMENT OF HIS 30 PARLIAMENTARIAN APPOINTEES (EIGHT ARE THE STANDING GOVERNORS, AND 10 OF THE APPOINTMENTS ARE RESERVED FOR TRIBAL CHIEFS, LEAVING 12 PURELY "POLITICAL" SLOTS TO BE FILLED BY THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE); AND NAMING THE CABINET. A ZANU-PF CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 30, REPORTEDLY TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES. IN APPOINTING THE 12 PARLIAMENT MEMBERS, WE EXPECT MUGABE TO RESUSCITATE SOME OF THE ELECTION-LOSING FORMER POLITBURO STALWARTS AS EMERSON MNANGAGWA, DUMISO DABENGWA AND MINISTER OF STATE FOR GENDER AFFAIRS OPPAH MUCHINGURI. ON THE CABINET FRONT WE EXPECT THAT IT WILL CONSIST MAINLY OF HARD-LINERS FAITHFUL TO MUGABE'S ARTHRITIC MARXIST IDEOLOGY AND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6696 PAGE 01 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W -------------- 67EB66 281311Z /38 P 281312Z JUN 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6462 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003521 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER PASS USAID FOR A/AID, DAA/AFR VERNE NEWTON, AND AFR/SA CREINTSMA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/10 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PREL ZI US SUBJECT: THE NEW ZIMBABWEAN PARLIAMENT: THE GLOVES WILL BE OFF LOYAL, BEYOND QUESTION, TO THE OLD MAN AS WELL. IF, CONTRARY TO PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS BY MUGABE'S SUBORDINATES, CABINET SCRAPS ARE THROWN TO THE MDC, THEY LIKELY WILL BE POSITIONS HEADING MINISTRIES THAT ARE WINDOW DRESSING OR THE MOST PROBLEMATIC, SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION. ¶5. (C) ONE OF THE FIRST ISSUES ON WHICH THE NEW PARLIAMENT, WHICH BY OUR READING OF THE CONSTITUTION MUST CONVENE FOR ITS FIRST SESSION BY EARLY OCTOBER, IS LIKELY TO CLASH IS LAND REDISTRIBUTION, AN ECONOMIC AND EMOTIONAL HEAVYWEIGHT. THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT MADE IT THE HALLMARK OF HIS PARTY'S ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN, AND AMENDED A NUMBER OF STATUTES BY DECREE IN ORDER TO PUT IN PLACE THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK TO BEGIN HIS REDISTRIBUTION VENTURE. THE MDC LIKELY WILL DO EVERYTHING IT CAN TO TRY TO BLOCK RATIFICATION OF THESE ACTIONS IN PARLIAMENT. AND WE FULLY EXPECT MUGABE WILL RETURN TO HIS DIVISIVE AND INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC, CHARACTERIZING THE MDC AS A TOOL OF THE WHITES, EX-RHODESIANS, THE BRITISH OR WHOMEVER. ¶6. (C) IN HIS CONCILIATORY SPEECH ACCEPTING THE ELECTIONS RESULTS THE EVENING OF JUNE 27, PRESIDENT MUGABE STATED HIS EXPECTATION THAT PARLIAMENT " IS CERTAINLY DESTINED TO PROVE LIVELY" THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z WE CONCUR; AND PREDICT THAT THE MDC WILL BE A VERY VOCAL OPPOSITION, CALLING FOR ACCOUNTABILITY, COMMON SENSE AND RATIONALITY FROM GOVERNMENT. THE MDC WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO RAISE THE ECONOMY TO BE THE FOCUS OF DEBATE IN PARLIAMENT. OF COURSE, THE POWER TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT ITS PARLOUS STATE WILL REST WITH MUGABE AND HIS REPACKAGED GANG OF THIEVES. ¶7. (C) WE THINK MUGABE SEES THE MDC'S GAINS IN PARLIAMENT NOT AS DEFEAT BUT A REBUFF FROM WHICH HE MUST REGROUP, MUCH AS HE DID AFTER THE DEFEAT OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN FEBRUARY. INSTEAD OF FOUR MONTHS HE WILL HAVE NEARLY TWO YEARS TO LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR A SUCCESSFUL PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN 2002, IN WHICH WE EXPECT HE WILL RUN AGAINST THE MDC'S MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. MUGABE WILL BE IN FULL CRUSADE MODE, LEADING THE RULING PARTY ON ITS QUEST FOR THE HOLY GRAIL OF LAND REFORM. REINFORCING THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT IN HIS SENSE THAT HE IS ABSOLUTELY ON THE CORRECT PATH IS THE UNQUESTIONING ENDORSEMENT OF HIS FELLOW HEADS OF STATE FROM THE REGION, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA'S THABO MBEKI. SUCH SUPPORT WILL DO NOTHING TO ATTENUATE THE PRICKLY MUGABE'S ARROGANCE AND USUAL TACTIC OF RAISING THE STAKES AND SUSPENDING THE RULES TO GET WHAT HE WANTS. ¶8. (C) THE GOOD NEWS, HOWEVER, IS THAT WE SENSE A GENUINE DESIRE IN THE COUNTRY TO PUT THE RECENT, DIABOLICAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN BEHIND ITSELF AND MOVE FORWARD TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE TO ITS IMAGE, COHESIVENESS AND ECONOMY. YES, ZIMBABWE IS CHANGED FOREVER AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z BROAD-BASED DEMOCRACY, AS WE ADVOCATE IT IN OUR MISSION PROGRAM PLAN, HAS MADE A BRILLIANT SHOWING OVER THE JUNE 24-25 WEEKEND. WE BELIEVE OUR PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY BUILDING PROGRAM THAT HAS BEEN FULLY OPERATIONAL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1999 IS NOW MORE CRITICAL THAN EVER. WE LOOK FORWARD TO HELPING ZIMBABWE SUSTAIN IT AND WELCOME IT INTO THE FOLD OF THE COMMUNITY OF DEMOCRACIES. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >