C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003521

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID, DAA/AFR VERNE NEWTON, AND AFR/SA
CREINTSMA

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03521 01 OF 02 281310Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/10
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PREL ZI US
SUBJECT: THE NEW ZIMBABWEAN PARLIAMENT: THE GLOVES
WILL BE OFF

REF: HARARE 3506

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWE HAS CHANGED FOREVER AS A RESULT
OF THE RECENT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION THAT BROADENED
PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY IN THE COUNTRY. THE "LOSERS" IN
THIS ELECTION, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC
CHANGE (MDC), WILL TAKE THEIR ELECTORAL GRIEVANCES TO
COURT, NOT THE STREET, THUS MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR
POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE. WE EXPECT IT WILL PLAY THE ROLE
OF VOCAL OPPOSITION IN PARLIAMENT AND ATTEMPT TO SHIFT
THE FOCUS OF THE DEBATE THERE TO THE COUNTRY'S
FOUNDERING ECONOMY. PRESIDENT MUGABE IS IN CRUSADE MODE
AND WILL LEAD HIS RADICALIZED PARTY IN SEARCH OF THE
HOLY GRAIL OF LAND REDISTRIBUTION. WE THINK HE VIEWS
THE MDC'S SHOWING IN THE POLLS AS A SETBACK FROM WHICH
HE MUST REGROUP WITH A VIEW TO RUNNING AGAIN IN 2002
AGAINST MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. END COMMENT.


2. (C) THE VOTERS HAVE SPOKEN IN ZIMBABWE AND ELECTED A
NEW PARLIAMENT WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED 57 SEATS FOR AN
OPPOSITION PARTY, THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE
(MDC). IN THE CONTEXT OF AFRICA IN GENERAL, THIS IS
QUITE A REMARKABLE FEAT. THOUGH THE MDC "LOST" BECAUSE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03521 01 OF 02 281310Z
IT GOT A FEWER NUMBER OF SEATS THAN ZANU-PF AT 62, IT
MAY ACTUALLY HAVE RECEIVED THE MAJORITY OF THE VOTES
CAST. WE DO NOT, AS A RESULT, EXPECT ITS FOLLOWERS TO
RESORT TO VIOLENCE IN PROTEST OF A STOLEN ELECTION.
RATHER, THE MDC IS SET TO CHALLENGE THE CONDUCT OF THE
ELECTION VIA RECOUNT DEMANDS AND PERHAPS COURT
CHALLENGES IN UP TO 20 CONSTITUENCIES. THE GROUNDS FOR
THE LEGAL CHALLENGES LIKELY WILL BE PRE-ELECTION AND
ELECTION DAY INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE, AND VOTERS' ROLL

OR PROCEDURAL IRREGULARITIES THAT EFFECTIVELY
DISENFRANCHISED MANY INDIVIDUALS.


3. (C) THE ELECTION SWEPT OUT A NUMBER OF ZANU-PF
STALWARTS AND MEMBERS OF THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO, SUCH AS
HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA, MINES ENVIRONMENT
AND TOURISM MINISTER S.K. MOYO, ZANU-PF WOMEN'S LEAGUE
PRESIDENT TENJIWE LESABE, JUSTICE LEGAL AND
PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS MINISTER EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, AND A
MODERATE LIKE MASVINGO PROVINCIAL CHAIRMAN DZIKAMAI
MAVHAIRE. IT SEATED THE HARD-LINERS IN THE PARTY, SUCH
AS MASHONALAND CENTRAL GOVERNOR BORDER GEZI; CHEN
CHIMUTENGWENDE, THE MINISTER OF INFORMATION, POSTS AND
TELECOMMUNICATIONS; ZANU-PF SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION
DIDYMUS MUTASA; MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI; AND NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS'
ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT CHENJERAI HITLER HUNZVI. THEY
REPRESENT REMOTE RURAL CONSTITUENCIES WHERE THE MDC HAD
FEWER POLLING AGENTS AND VOTER INTIMIDATION SEEMS TO
HAVE WORKED, IN ADDITION TO THE STRATEGIC PLACEMENT OF
POSTAL VOTES TO SWING KEY OUTCOMES, AS THEY WON BY
MARGINS THAT DID NOT CONFORM TO THE ESTABLISHED PATTERN.
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03521 01 OF 02 281310Z
TOTALLY UNKNOWN NAMES OR INDIVIDUALS WHO PREVIOUSLY
NEVER DID VERY WELL WON MASSIVELY IN SUCH
CONSTITUENCIES. THE SIGNAL BEING SENT BY THESE
ELECTORAL VICTORIES IS THAT THE ZANU-PF PARTY IS
IDEOLOGICALLY POLARIZED, AND THAT THERE WILL BE NO ROOM
FOR INDEPENDENT BEHAVIOR OR DISSENT. THE HARD-LINE
RADICALS NOW HAVE THE UPPER HAND. IN OUR JUDGMENT
MUGABE WILL INTERPRET HAVING CLINCHED 62 SEATS THROUGH
THE FIRST-PAST-THE-POST METHOD AS A CLEAR VICTORY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN IN MANNER AS RUTHLESS AS BEFORE.


4. (C) THE PRESIDENT'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS WILL BE HIS
ANNOUNCEMENT OF HIS 30 PARLIAMENTARIAN APPOINTEES (EIGHT
ARE THE STANDING GOVERNORS, AND 10 OF THE APPOINTMENTS
ARE RESERVED FOR TRIBAL CHIEFS, LEAVING 12 PURELY
"POLITICAL" SLOTS TO BE FILLED BY THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE);
AND NAMING THE CABINET. A ZANU-PF CENTRAL COMMITTEE
MEETING IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 30, REPORTEDLY TO
DISCUSS THESE ISSUES. IN APPOINTING THE 12 PARLIAMENT
MEMBERS, WE EXPECT MUGABE TO RESUSCITATE SOME OF THE
ELECTION-LOSING FORMER POLITBURO STALWARTS AS EMERSON
MNANGAGWA, DUMISO DABENGWA AND MINISTER OF STATE FOR
GENDER AFFAIRS OPPAH MUCHINGURI. ON THE CABINET FRONT
WE EXPECT THAT IT WILL CONSIST MAINLY OF HARD-LINERS
FAITHFUL TO MUGABE'S ARTHRITIC MARXIST IDEOLOGY AND

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W
-------------- 67EB66 281311Z /38
P 281312Z JUN 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6462
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003521

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH

LONDON FOR PFLAUMER

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER

PASS USAID FOR A/AID, DAA/AFR VERNE NEWTON, AND AFR/SA
CREINTSMA

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/10
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PREL ZI US
SUBJECT: THE NEW ZIMBABWEAN PARLIAMENT: THE GLOVES
WILL BE OFF

LOYAL, BEYOND QUESTION, TO THE OLD MAN AS WELL. IF,
CONTRARY TO PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS BY MUGABE'S
SUBORDINATES, CABINET SCRAPS ARE THROWN TO THE MDC, THEY
LIKELY WILL BE POSITIONS HEADING MINISTRIES THAT ARE
WINDOW DRESSING OR THE MOST PROBLEMATIC, SUCH AS HEALTH
AND EDUCATION.


5. (C) ONE OF THE FIRST ISSUES ON WHICH THE NEW
PARLIAMENT, WHICH BY OUR READING OF THE CONSTITUTION
MUST CONVENE FOR ITS FIRST SESSION BY EARLY OCTOBER, IS
LIKELY TO CLASH IS LAND REDISTRIBUTION, AN ECONOMIC AND
EMOTIONAL HEAVYWEIGHT. THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT MADE IT
THE HALLMARK OF HIS PARTY'S ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN, AND
AMENDED A NUMBER OF STATUTES BY DECREE IN ORDER TO PUT
IN PLACE THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK TO BEGIN HIS REDISTRIBUTION
VENTURE. THE MDC LIKELY WILL DO EVERYTHING IT CAN TO
TRY TO BLOCK RATIFICATION OF THESE ACTIONS IN
PARLIAMENT. AND WE FULLY EXPECT MUGABE WILL RETURN TO
HIS DIVISIVE AND INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC, CHARACTERIZING
THE MDC AS A TOOL OF THE WHITES, EX-RHODESIANS, THE
BRITISH OR WHOMEVER.


6. (C) IN HIS CONCILIATORY SPEECH ACCEPTING THE
ELECTIONS RESULTS THE EVENING OF JUNE 27, PRESIDENT
MUGABE STATED HIS EXPECTATION THAT PARLIAMENT " IS
CERTAINLY DESTINED TO PROVE LIVELY" THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z
WE CONCUR; AND PREDICT THAT THE MDC WILL BE A VERY VOCAL
OPPOSITION, CALLING FOR ACCOUNTABILITY, COMMON SENSE AND
RATIONALITY FROM GOVERNMENT. THE MDC WILL ALSO ATTEMPT
TO RAISE THE ECONOMY TO BE THE FOCUS OF DEBATE IN
PARLIAMENT. OF COURSE, THE POWER TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT
ITS PARLOUS STATE WILL REST WITH MUGABE AND HIS
REPACKAGED GANG OF THIEVES.


7. (C) WE THINK MUGABE SEES THE MDC'S GAINS IN
PARLIAMENT NOT AS DEFEAT BUT A REBUFF FROM WHICH HE MUST
REGROUP, MUCH AS HE DID AFTER THE DEFEAT OF THE
CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN FEBRUARY. INSTEAD OF FOUR
MONTHS HE WILL HAVE NEARLY TWO YEARS TO LAY THE
GROUNDWORK FOR A SUCCESSFUL PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN
2002, IN WHICH WE EXPECT HE WILL RUN AGAINST THE MDC'S
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. MUGABE WILL BE IN FULL CRUSADE MODE,
LEADING THE RULING PARTY ON ITS QUEST FOR THE HOLY GRAIL
OF LAND REFORM. REINFORCING THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT IN
HIS SENSE THAT HE IS ABSOLUTELY ON THE CORRECT PATH IS
THE UNQUESTIONING ENDORSEMENT OF HIS FELLOW HEADS OF
STATE FROM THE REGION, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA'S THABO
MBEKI. SUCH SUPPORT WILL DO NOTHING TO ATTENUATE THE
PRICKLY MUGABE'S ARROGANCE AND USUAL TACTIC OF RAISING
THE STAKES AND SUSPENDING THE RULES TO GET WHAT HE
WANTS.


8. (C) THE GOOD NEWS, HOWEVER, IS THAT WE SENSE A
GENUINE DESIRE IN THE COUNTRY TO PUT THE RECENT,
DIABOLICAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN BEHIND ITSELF AND MOVE
FORWARD TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE TO ITS IMAGE, COHESIVENESS
AND ECONOMY. YES, ZIMBABWE IS CHANGED FOREVER AND
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03521 02 OF 02 281311Z
BROAD-BASED DEMOCRACY, AS WE ADVOCATE IT IN OUR MISSION
PROGRAM PLAN, HAS MADE A BRILLIANT SHOWING OVER THE JUNE
24-25 WEEKEND. WE BELIEVE OUR PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY
BUILDING PROGRAM THAT HAS BEEN FULLY OPERATIONAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1999 IS NOW MORE CRITICAL THAN EVER. WE LOOK
FORWARD TO HELPING ZIMBABWE SUSTAIN IT AND WELCOME IT
INTO THE FOLD OF THE COMMUNITY OF DEMOCRACIES.

MCDONALD

CONFIDENTIAL

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