ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION SEEKS U.S. SUPPORT FOR MULTILATERAL LENDING RESUMPTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002865 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS STATE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA RCOHEN STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02865 01 OF 02 301518Z PRETORIA FOR AG ATTACHE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/05 TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION SEEKS U.S. SUPPORT FOR MULTILATERAL LENDING RESUMPTION CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, REASON 1.5 (B), (D) REFS: A) HARARE 2461, B)HARARE 2820 ¶1. (C) ON MAY 30 AMBASSADOR, DCM, POL AND ECON OFFICERS MET WITH REPRESENTATIVES (FORMER CFU PRESIDENT NICK SWANEPOEL, AND FARMERS JOHN HAINES AND PETER HENDERSON) OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) WHO GAVE A READOUT ON RECENT CONFIDENTIAL CFU/GOZ DISCUSSIONS AND NEGOTIATIONS ON LAND INVASIONS AND LAND REDISTRIBUTION. THOUGH THEIR EFFORTS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A WORK-IN-PROGRESS, GIVEN THE CURRENT VOLATILE POLITICAL CLIMATE, THE THREE-MAN TEAM LED BY SWANEPOEL (PRESIDENT MUGABE PERSONALLY DIRECTED THAT SWANEPOEL SPEARHEAD THE NEGOTIATIONS, SEE REF C) BELIEVES THAT THEY HAVE MADE PROGRESS AND GOTTEN PROMISES FROM NATIONAL LEADERSHIP WHICH SERVE TO INTRODUCE REASON, COMMON SENSE AND LONG-TERM VIABILITY INTO THE PROCESS. THE SALIENT POINTS MADE TO US BY SWANEPOEL AND COMPANY ARE: == THE NEGOTIATIONS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING THE INCIDENCE AND LEVEL OF VIOLENCE DIRECTED AT WHITE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02865 01 OF 02 301518Z FARMERS AND THEIR WORKERS (COMMENT: INFORMATION COMING INTO THE EMBASSY IS THAT WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DROPOFF IN VIOLENCE ON THE FARMS IT IS STILL CONTINUING AND DEMANDS FOR ATTENDANCE AT "REEDUCATION" RALLIES HAVE INCREASED. WE ALSO POINT OUT THAT COMMUNAL AREAS, RURAL MUNICIPALITIES AND HARARE'S HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN VIOLENCE IN THE LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. END COMMENT.); == THE GOVERNMENT'S CURRENT PLAN IS THAT, SOON AFTER THE ELECTIONS, ALL INVADERS WILL BE WITHDRAWN, ALLOWING THE START OF A MORE ORGANIZED RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM DIRECTED OUT OF THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE; == THOUGH VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA WILL LIKELY BE TITULAR HEAD OF THE RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, ITS EFFORTS WILL BE PERSONALLY OVERSEEN BY PRESIDENT MUGABE WHO REALIZES THAT THE COUNTRY MUST RETAIN SOME VESTIGE OF AGRICULTURAL VIABILITY; == THOUGH THE 841 PREVIOUSLY-DESIGNATED FARMS MAY ALL BE GAZZETTED FOR ACQUISITION UNDER THE NEW LEGISLATION (REF A),THE GOZ HAS AGREED THAT IN THE INTERESTS OF NATIONAL SECURITY THE MOST PRODUCTIVE PROPERTIES WILL NOT BE SEIZED (OTHER FARMS BEING PUT ON THE MARKET BY BANKRUPT OR DEPARTING FARMERS WILL BE OFFERED TO COVER THE GAP SO THAT 2.2 MILLION HECTARES ARE GIVEN OVER TO STATE CONTROL); == THE WAR VETERANS ARE NOT ALL UNIFORMLY UNDER THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02865 01 OF 02 301518Z CONTROL OF "HITLER" HUNZVI AND FACTIONALISM IS EVIDENT, WITH "WARLORDS" TAKING OVER; == THE WAR VETERANS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO RETAIN THE PLOTS THEY HAVE PEGGED OFF, BUT RATHER WILL BE MOVED TO OTHER FARMS DURING THE RESETTLEMENT PHASE (THE VETS OFTEN INVADED FARMS WITH THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE, LIKE LOOTERS GOING AFTER THE BEST SHOPS) == HUNZVI IS A TOOL THAT WILL BE DISCARDED BY GOVERNMENT AFTER THE ELECTIONS, WHEN HIS UTILITY WILL DROP TO ZERO; == THE STATE-SANCTIONED INVASIONS ENGENDERED AN ATMOSPHERE OF LAWLESSNESS FROM WHICH LOCAL WARLORDS (WHO MAY OR MAY NOT BE LIBERATION WAR "VETERANS") HAVE EMERGED AND PROFITED. THE STATE HAS FINALLY RECOGNIZED THIS (A POINT THE CFU HAD BEEN MAKING REPEATEDLY OVER RECENT WEEKS),AND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE POLICE HAS PICKED UP AND DETAINED ABOUT 30 OF THESE INDIVIDUALS (WITH MAYBE ANOTHER 50 OR 60 TO GO) WHO WILL BE HELD IN CUSTODY UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTIONS; == FOR THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, THE UTTER LACK OF STATE-FUNDS TO PAY FOR THE FARM ASSETS ACQUIRED, AND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8246 PAGE 01 HARARE 02865 02 OF 02 301519Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W -------------- 5CE88C 301519Z /38 P 301517Z MAY 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6161 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY USDA FAS WASHDC AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY PARIS C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002865 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AF/EPS STATE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA RCOHEN STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS PRETORIA FOR AG ATTACHE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02865 02 OF 02 301519Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/05 TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION SEEKS U.S. SUPPORT FOR MULTILATERAL LENDING RESUMPTION THE DIRE MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH THREATENS BANKRUPTCY, ARE THE TWO MOST SERIOUS THREATS TODAY CONFRONTING THE CFU MEMBERSHIP. == AND, THE CFU REMAINS "APOLITICAL" AS AN ORGANIZATION, BUT MANY WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE NOW QUIETLY SUPPORTING THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE CHANGE (MDC),FOLLOWING RULING PARTY HARASSMENT FOR BACKING THE OPPOSITION. ¶2. (C) THE CFU TEAM'S INDIRECT MESSAGE WAS A PLEA FOR INTERNATIONAL FUNDING TO ALLOW THE GOZ TO PROCEED WITH A RATIONAL PLAN WHICH WOULD NOT CONTAIN THE SEEDS OF THE DESTRUCTION OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY. HE ALSO CLAIMED THAT TO DATE THE INVASIONS HAVE HAD ONLY A NEGLIBLE EFFECT ON CURRENT PRODUCTION, THOUGH FUTURE PRODUCTION IS VERY MUCH UNDER THREAT. (COMMENT: SWANEPOEL, WHO FULLY COMPREHENDS THE U.S. POSITION AND LEGAL LIMITS ON FUNDING FOR LAND REFORM, WAS AGAIN GENTLY REMINDED OF THE FACTS BY THE AMBASSADOR. THE AMBASSADOR ALSO POINTED OUT THAT THE ONGOING, EVEN IF DIMISHED, VIOLENCE RELATED TO ZANU- PF POLITICKING WAS VERY TROUBLING TO THE USG AND THUS "BUSINESS AS USUAL" COULD NOT QUICKLY OCCUR AFTER THE ELECTIONS. END COMMENT.) SWANEPOEL POINTED OUT THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02865 02 OF 02 301519Z BANKS WOULD LIKELY FAIL IF THE DISPOSSESSED FARMERS WERE ONLY GIVEN PROMISSORY NOTES OR OTHER GOVERNMENT PAPER OF QUESTIONABLE VALUE, AND WOULD THEMSELVES HAVE NO LIQUID ASSETS TO PURSUE FARMING ANYWHERE ELSE, IF THEY DESIRED TO DO SO. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: SWANEPOEL, WHILE PERHAPS NOT 100 PERCENT OPEN AND SOMEWHAT OVERLY ROSEY, WAS FRANK AND CANDID IN HIS DESCRIPTION OF WHERE MATTERS STAND, THE DIRECTION THE GOVERNMENT APPEARED HEADED AND WHAT THE CFU DESIRED. AS MUGABE'S HAND-PICKED POINT MAN AND ARBITER FOR THE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY HE HAS A TOUGH ROW TO HOE. THE CFU CONTINUES TO CONSISTENTLY MAINTAIN BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE LINES OF SUPPORT, WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE GOZ ON ITS LAND REFORM PROGRAM AND TRYING TO PUSH IT INTO THE REALM OF DOABLE AND REASONABLE. WHETHER THE RULE OF REASON OR OF PRACTICALITY WILL SHINE DOWN ON THE PROCESS ONCE THE ELECTIONS ARE COMPLETE LOOKS LIKE A COIN TOSS AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH FOR THE FUTURE OF ALL ZIMBABWEANS WE HOPE IT IS SO. FOR THE MOMENT, THOUGH, WE WOULDN'T BET THE FAMILY FARM ON IT. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >