MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 002734 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 01 OF 05 230816Z DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR WILLIAMS DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS REF: (A) HARARE 00395, (B) HARARE 02560, (C) HARARE 01797 CLASSIFIED BY LABOFF SHAWN THORNE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: DESPITE A STATE-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE, AND THE RULING PARTY'S CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) STILL IS LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF THE 150 PARLIAMENTARY SEAT TOTAL (OR 30 SEATS) IN THE ELECTIONS NOW SCHEDULED FOR JUNE 24-25. (NOTE: ONLY 120 OF THE 150 SEATS ARE ELECTED. THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 01 OF 05 230816Z REMAINING 30 ARE APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT. END NOTE.) APPROXIMATELY 42 OF THE 120 SEATS UP FOR GRABS REPRESENT URBAN AND/OR PERI-URBAN AREAS, WHILE 78 ARE LOCATED IN RURAL AREAS. SUPPORT FOR THE MDC REMAINS STRONG IN MOST URBAN CENTERS; HENCE OUR PREDICTION THAT THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT WILL MANAGE TO CAPTURE AT LEAST 30 SEATS (REF A). HOWEVER, MDC LEADERS HAVE EXPRESSED THEIR SURPRISE AT THE LEVEL OF SUSTAINED STATE SPONSORED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION TAKING PLACE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE -- AND INCREASINGLY IN THE CITIES -- AND THE REFUSAL OF THE POLICE TO INTERVENE. MEANWHILE, THE RULING PARTY ZANU-PF IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ITS CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS BY DELAYING THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES. THE MDC ARGUES THAT IT CANNOT FORMALLY NOMINATE CANDIDATES FOR EACH CONSTITUENCY UNTIL IT KNOWS WHAT THOSE CONSTITUENCIES ARE, AND THAT THE GOZ IS PURPOSELY DELAYING THE RELEASE OF THIS INFORMATION. NONETHELESS, MDC LEADERS STATE THE PARTY ENJOYS WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS, AND THAT THE RULING PARTY'S INTIMIDATION TACTICS WILL BACKFIRE COME ELECTION DAY. WHILE POST EXPECTS THE MDC TO CERTAINLY GET A FOOT IN THE DOOR OF PARLIAMENT, AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE PARTY TO SECURE A PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY OF 76 SEATS. END SUMMARY. -------------- ZANU-PF'S CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE CONTINUES -------------- ¶2. (C) THE RULING PARTY'S CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 01 OF 05 230816Z VIOLENCE CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND WE EXPECT IT TO WORSEN IN THE RUN-UP TO THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION DATE (REF B). ACCORDING TO A RUNNING DATABASE BEING COMPILED BY A MIXTURE OF HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS, CHURCHES, OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, OVER 5,000 ASSAULTS AND INJURIES, AND AT LEAST 21 MURDERS, HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY. ALMOST ALL OF THE VIOLENT ACTS, ACCORDING TO EYEWITNESSES, WERE CARRIED OUT BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. FOR THE MOST PART, THE POLICE, UNDER ORDERS FROM THE POWERS-THAT-BE, HAVE STOOD IDLY BY -- AND IN SOME CASES EVEN ASSISTED THE ATTACKERS -- AS THESE CRIMES HAVE BEEN COMMITTED. THE BULK OF THE RULING PARTY'S CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN THE RURAL AREAS WHERE TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION RESIDE. ON INVADED COMMERCIAL FARMS (WHICH NOW TOTAL OVER 1,000), WAR VETERANS AND GROUPS OF ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS (MAINLY UNEMPLOYED YOUTH) CONTINUE TO TERRORIZE FARMERS AND THEIR EMPLOYEES, FORCING THEM TO ATTEND "RE-EDUCATION" RALLIES AND SEVERELY BEATING (IN SOME CASES MURDERING) SUSPECTED MDC SUPPORTERS. ¶3. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE WAVE OF VIOLENCE HAS SWEPT INTO THE CITIES, IN PARTICULAR PERI-URBAN AREAS AND HIGH CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5611 PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 5A205B 230817Z /38 R 230817Z MAY 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6109 INFO NSC WASHDC DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC DEPTTREAS WASHDC USDOC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY LUSAKA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 002734 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR WILLIAMS DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS DENSITY TOWNSHIPS. ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS HAVE BURNED THE HOMES AND DESTROYED PROPERTY OF NUMEROUS MDC OFFICIALS IN HARARE, GWERU, AND KWEKWE, AND VIOLENT SKIRMISHES BETWEEN MDC AND ZANU-PF MEMBERS OCCUR REGULARLY AROUND THE COUNTRY. WAR VETERANS AND OTHER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, EMBOLDENED BY THE TACIT SUPPORT OF POLICE, HAVE BEGUN TO TARGET FACTORIES AND OTHER BUSINESSES, MOST OF WHICH ARE OWNED BY WHITES OR MEMBERS OF THE INDIAN COMMUNITY WITH SUSPECTED MDC LOYALTIES. DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 15, FOR EXAMPLE, TWO FACTORIES IN BULAWAYO AND ONE LUMBER MILL IN CHIPINGE WERE STORMED BY GROUPS OF ZANU-PF THUGS DEMANDING MONEY FOR THEIR CAMPAIGN, AS WELL AS MANAGEMENT'S' OATH OF ALLEGIANCE TO THE RULING PARTY. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z ACCORDING TO EYEWITNESSES, SEVERAL EMPLOYEES WERE BEATEN AND THE MANAGEMENT STAFF "ROUGHED UP" AS POLICE STOOD BY IN PLAIN VIEW AND DID NOTHING. ONE INDIAN BUSINESSMAN TOLD LABOFF THAT THE AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP, A GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED NGO OSTENSIBLY WORKING TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR BLACK ZIMBABWEANS, HAS LAUNCHED A PUBLIC CAMPAIGN IN BULAWAYO, HARARE, AND MUTARE THAT TARGETS INDIAN BUSINESSPEOPLE AS "AGENTS OF THE MDC." THE CONTACT STATED THAT HE AND OTHER COLLEAGUES ALSO HAVE RECEIVED ANONYMOUS THREATS THAT, SHOULD THE MDC WIN IN THEIR CONSTITUENCIES, THEIR FAMILIES AND PROPERTY WOULD SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES. -------------- -------------- RULING PARTY STACKS THE DECK IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) IN ADDITION TO ITS CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION, THE RULING PARTY ALSO IS USING ITS CONTROL OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS TO STACK THE DECK IN ITS FAVOR. SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA HAS STATED PUBLICLY THAT, AS OF MAY 19, THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION WHICH HE CHAIRS HAD NOT RELEASED ITS OFFICIAL WRITTEN REPORT. HOWEVER, JUSTICE SANDURA TOLD REPRESENTATIVES OF THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE (NDI) PRE-ELECTION SURVEY TEAM DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 15 THAT WHILE HE HAS DISCUSSED THE BOUNDARIES OF THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES VERBALLY WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, HE HAS NOT PROVIDED HIM WITH ANY WRITTEN REPORT. SANDURA SAID THE PROPOSED MAPS SHOWING THE NEW BOUNDARIES WERE NOT EVEN PREPARED YET, AS THEY ARE STILL BEING WORKED ON BY THE SURVEYOR GENERAL'S CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 02 OF 05 230817Z OFFICE, AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL MAY 26. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE NEW BOUNDARIES ARE KNOWN TO THE RULING PARTY, AS MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA STATED ON NATIONAL TELEVISION NEWS ON MAY 16 THAT THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION HAD COMPLETED ITS WORK, AND THAT SEVERAL CONSTITUENCIES HAD BEEN ELIMINATED IN THE PROCESS OF RE- DRAWING THE VOTING BOUNDARIES. (NOTE: ONE OF THE CONSTITUENCIES THAT HAS BEEN ELIMINATED, ACCORDING TO THE MINISTER, IS BULAWAYO SOUTH, WHERE ATTORNEY DAVID COLTART, THE MDC'S SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS, WAS FAVORED TO WIN. MARGARET DONGO'S CONSTITUENCY IN HARARE SOUTH WAS ALSO DISSOLVED. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ HAS DECLARED MAY 29 AS THE DEADLINE FOR THE SUBMISSION OF CANDIDATES' NAMES TO THE NOMINATING COURT. OUR SOURCES TELL US THAT THE GOZ IS UNLIKELY TO RELEASE THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE DELIMITATION EXERCISE UNTIL ABOUT MAY 22. THE MDC AND OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES ARGUE THAT ONE WEEK IS NOT ENOUGH TIME TO EXAMINE THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES AND OFFICIALLY SUBMIT THEIR CANDIDATES' CREDENTIALS TO THE NOMINATING COURT. (NOTE: SEE REF (C) FOR A TIMELINE OF PREREQUISITES THAT, ACCORDING TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5615 PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 5A2067 230817Z /38 R 230817Z MAY 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6110 INFO NSC WASHDC DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC DEPTTREAS WASHDC USDOC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY LUSAKA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 002734 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR WILLIAMS DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS GOZ MUST FOLLOW BEFORE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. END NOTE.) DAVID COLTART AND TENDAI BITI, THE MDC'S SECRETARY FOR LANDS AND AGRICULTURE, ANNOUNCED TO THE SIPDIS PRESS ON MAY 18 THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO SUE PRESIDENT MUGABE FOR FAILING TO ANNOUNCE THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES IN SUFFICIENT TIME TO ALLOW CANDIDATES TO SUBMIT THEIR NOMINATIONS, AS WELL AS OTHER GOVERNMENT TACTICS THAT THE MDC ARGUES IS PRECLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS ON JUNE 24-25. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: WHEN THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION'S OFFICIAL REPORT IS RELEASED, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE BOUNDARIES REDRAWN TO SPLIT UP THOSE CONSTITUENCIES, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS, THAT ARE KNOWN TO BE PRO- MDC. IN SOME CASES, LIKE BULAWAYO SOUTH, THE CONSTITUENCY WILL BE ELIMINATED ALTOGETHER. THE RULING PARTY LIKELY WILL WAIT AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO RELEASE THE REPORT, GIVING THE MDC VERY LITTLE TIME TO SUBMIT ITS CANDIDATES' NOMINATIONS. THE RULING PARTY'S TAMPERING WITH THE CONSTITUENT BOUNDARIES -- AND ALMOST CERTAINLY WITH THE VOTERS' ROLL -- IS CLEARLY AN ATTEMPT TO DISADVANTAGE THE MDC AT THE POLLS IN JUNE. END COMMENT. -------------- MDC STILL CONFIDENT -------------- ¶7. (C) MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, PRESIDENT OF THE MDC, TOLD REPORTERS ON MAY 10 THAT HIS PARTY WAS CONSIDERING BOYCOTTING THE ELECTIONS BECAUSE, IN THE CURRENT CLIMATE OF INTIMIDATION, A FREE AND FAIR VOTE WOULD NOT BE POSSIBLE. THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED MEDIA SEIZED THE OPPORTUNITY TO PORTRAY THE MDC AS TURNING TAIL AND RUNNING WHEN THE GOING GOT TOUGH. DAVID COLTART EXPLAINED THAT TSVANGIRAI'S STATEMENT WAS NOT ONE OF COWARDICE, BUT RATHER AN OFFER TO MDC CANDIDATES OF A WAY OUT OF THE VIOLENCE, IF THEY CHOSE TO TAKE IT. ACCORDING TO COLTART AND WELSHMAN NCUBE, THE MDC'S SECRETARY GENERAL, THE PARTY'S SENIOR LEADERSHIP IS SIPDIS DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE WELFARE OF ITS CANDIDATES AND SUPPORTERS IN THE FIELD WHO ARE BEING, OR HAVE BEEN, TARGETS OF VIOLENCE. BY SUGGESTING A BOYCOTT, TSVANGIRAI WAS OFFERING HIS MEMBERS THE CHANCE TO DROP OUT OF THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 03 OF 05 230817Z RACE AND REDUCE THEIR EXPOSURE, WHILE STILL SAVING FACE. THE ANSWER FROM MDC CANDIDATES WAS A RESOUNDING "NO." ACCORDING TO COLTART, ATTENDEES OF A MAY 13 MEETING OF THE PARTY LEADERSHIP OVERWHELMINGLY VOTED AGAINST BOYCOTTING THE ELECTION, ARGUING THAT THE RULING PARTY'S CAMPAIGN OF TERROR WAS HAVING THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON VOTERS, AND THAT THEY WERE WILLING TO SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES OF CONTINUED CAMPAIGNING IN ORDER TO "BRING AN END TO MUGABE'S DICTATORSHIP." THE MDC'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN THEREFORE CONTINUES. ¶8. (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE CONFIRMED THAT THE PARTY STILL INTENDS TO FIELD CANDIDATES IN EVERY DISTRICT EXCEPT THAT OF INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARIAN MARGARET DONGO. ALTHOUGH FUNDING CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM, NCUBE STATED THAT SMALL, INDIVIDUAL, AND OFTEN ANONYMOUS DONATIONS CONTINUE TO ARRIVE REGULARLY, AND THAT ALL OF THESE "DROPS IN THE BUCKET" ARE ADDING UP. BEFORE THE START OF THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY, WHITE FARMERS AND BUSINESSPEOPLE WERE MAKING SOME SUBSTANTIAL DONATIONS. TSVANGIRAI'S NUMEROUS TRIPS TO SOUTH AFRICA AND EUROPE IN RECENT MONTHS YIELDED SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM FELLOW TRADE UNIONISTS IN THOSE COUNTRIES. NCUBE ADDED THAT THE PARTY CONTINUES TO RECEIVE FREQUENT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5619 PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 5A2078 230818Z /38 R 230817Z MAY 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6111 INFO NSC WASHDC DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC DEPTTREAS WASHDC USDOC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY LUSAKA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 002734 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR WILLIAMS DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS DONATIONS (MANY OVER THE INTERNET) FROM INDIVIDUALS LIVING ABROAD, PARTICULARLY ZIMBABWEAN EXPATRIATES IN THE U.K. ALTHOUGH THE MONEY IS COMING IN, NCUBE ADMITTED THAT IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO MOUNT THE TYPE OF MEDIA AND GRASSROOTS CAMPAIGN THAT THE MDC NEEDS. "WE NEED ABOUT U.S.$3.5 MILLION TO RUN THE CAMPAIGN THAT WE WANT," HE SAID. "WE HAVEN'T EVEN GOT HALF OF THAT." ¶9. (C) BEYOND FUNDING SHORTFALLS, THE WAVE OF STATE- SPONSORED VIOLENCE ACROSS ZIMBABWE HAS FORCED THE MDC'S CAMPAIGN LARGELY UNDERGROUND AT THIS POINT. NCUBE TOLD EMBOFFS THAT THE PARTY WAS "SURPRISED" BY, AND "UNPREPARED" FOR, THE LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION THAT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z RULING PARTY HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN. IN PARTICULAR, SAID NCUBE, MDC LEADERS DID NOT EXPECT THE POLICE TO TOTALLY ABDICATE THEIR RESPONSIBILITY AND ALLOW VICIOUS BEATINGS AND KILLINGS TO TAKE PLACE WITHOUT CONSEQUENCE. AS A RESULT, THE MDC NOW IS HOLDING ALMOST NO RALLIES ON COMMERCIAL FARMS, EITHER BECAUSE THE AREAS HAVE BEEN INVADED BY WAR VETERANS AND THEIR FOLLOWERS, AND/OR BECAUSE THE FARMERS, FEARFUL OF RETALIATION PERPETRATED BY THE RULING PARTY TOUGHS, REFUSE TO ALLOW THE EVENTS TO TAKE PLACE ON THEIR PROPERTIES. MOREOVER, SAID NCUBE, THE MDC RECOGNIZES THAT AGENTS FROM THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) ARE PRESENT AT MOST OF THEIR GATHERINGS, AND THAT ANY FARM WORKER THAT ATTENDS ONE OF THEIR RALLIES IS LIKELY TO BE "VISITED LATER IN THE NIGHT." IN THE CITIES AND PERI-URBAN AREAS WHERE THE MDC ENJOYS WIDESPREAD SUPPORT, SAID NCUBE, THE PARTY IS STILL ABLE TO HOLD SMALL RALLIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE MAJORITY OF THE MDC'S CAMPAIGNING NOW IS BEING DONE BY WORD OF MOUTH, THOUGH, IN SMALL GROUPS AT PEOPLE'S HOMES AND OTHER PRIVATE LOCATIONS. PARTY LEADERS HAVE ADVISED THEIR MEMBERS -- PARTICULARLY IN THE TROUBLED AREAS OF THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES -- TO PUT THEIR PERSONAL SAFETY FIRST AND AVOID WEARING MDC T- SHIRTS OR CHANTING MDC SLOGANS IN PUBLIC. THE LEADERS THEMSELVES ALSO ARE TAKING EXTRA SECURITY PRECAUTIONS, INCLUDING SENDING THEIR IMMEDIATE FAMILY MEMBERS TO STAY WITH FRIENDS OR DISTANT RELATIVES. ¶10. (C) DESPITE THE RULING PARTY'S ATTEMPTS TO "RE- EDUCATE" ITS WAYWARD CITIZENS, THE MDC STILL IS CONFIDENT OF WINNING A MAJORITY OF 76 SEATS IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02734 04 OF 05 230818Z PARLIAMENT. MDC MEMBERS ASSERT THAT ZANU-PF WILL DISCOVER ON ELECTION DAY THAT ITS INTIMIDATION TACTICS HAVE BACKFIRED. NCUBE PREDICTS WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT, "PEOPLE WILL VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE" AT THE POLLS. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) THE RULING PARTY'S SCARE TACTICS AND "RE- EDUCATION" CAMPAIGN, BOTH ON THE FARMS AND IN THE GOVERNMENT-OWNED MEDIA, UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE HAD SOME EFFECT ON VOTERS. IN THE RURAL AREAS, FARM WORKERS AND COMMUNAL RESIDENTS -- TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION -- GENERALLY ARE UNSOPHISTICATED; LACK ACCESS TO ANY MEDIA EXCEPT THAT CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT; AND, ACCORDING TO SOME COMMERCIAL FARMERS, ARE EASILY INTIMIDATED BY THE RULING PARTY. HIGH PRICES, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND DECLINING DISPOSABLE INCOME HAVE TAUGHT RURAL RESIDENTS, HOWEVER, THAT ALL IS NOT WELL WITH ZANU-PF'S MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY. MEANWHILE, MANY OF THEIR CHILDREN AND OTHER RELATIVES LIVE IN THE CITY AND RETURN HOME ON WEEKENDS WITH TALES OF THEIR FINANCIAL STRAITS -- A STATE OF AFFAIRS THAT THE MDC IS PROMISING TO REVERSE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5620 PAGE 01 HARARE 02734 05 OF 05 230818Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 ANHR-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 5A207E 230818Z /38 R 230817Z MAY 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6112 INFO NSC WASHDC DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC DEPTTREAS WASHDC USDOC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY LUSAKA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 002734 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02734 05 OF 05 230818Z DEPT FOR DRL/ROBERT WARD NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR WILLIAMS DEPT PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL DEPT PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2000 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC STILL LIKELY TO WIN AT LEAST 20 PERCENT OF TOTAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IT IS THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO JUDGE HOW RURAL RESIDENTS WILL VOTE IN JUNE, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE RULING PARTY HAS EFFECTIVELY QUELLED THEIR ABILITY TO FREELY EXPRESS THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS. IN THE URBAN CENTERS, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A HIGH DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR THE MDC, PARTICULARLY AMONG WORKING CLASS ZIMBABWEANS WHO SUPPORTED THE PARTY'S EMERGENCE FROM THE ZIMBABWEAN CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU). GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH NUMBERS OF MDC VOTES IN THE APPROXIMATELY 38 URBAN CONSTITUENCIES, AS WELL AS THE STILL LARGELY UNCLEAR SYMPATHIES OF RURAL VOTERS, WE BELIEVE THAT AN MDC WIN OF AT LEAST 30 OF THE PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IS PROBABLE. GIVEN THE UNREMITTING CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE, HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02734 05 OF 05 230818Z MDC IS UNLIKELY TO WIN MANY MORE -- AND CERTAINLY NOT THE 76 SEATS IT EARLIER BOASTED WERE IN THE BAG -- IN THIS ELECTION. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >