PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ZIMBABWE ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002236 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR AFRICA GAYLE SMITH DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID, PASS TO USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ZIMBABWE ELECTION PROSPECTS REF: HARARE 2121 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR 1.5 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. WE HAVE BEGUN AN ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE RESULTS IN THE COMING ZIMBABWEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION BASED ON A DATABASE OF VOTING DISTRICTS. IN A ROUGH FIRST CUT, LOOKING ONLY AT THE IMPORTANT URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN CONSTITUENCIES, WE BELIEVE THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PARTY COULD COLLECT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 SEATS. OUR ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RURAL VOTE, WHICH CONTROLS TWO-THIRDS OF THE CURRENT CONSTITUENCIES. THIS PUTS THE RULING PARTY'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION IN RURAL AREAS IN A CLEARER LIGHT: THEY ARE FIGHTING TO SAVE THEIR POLITICAL SKINS. A LOCAL MDC-LEANING POLITICAL SCIENTIST, WHO CONDUCTS POLLS TO PREDICT AND ANALYZE VOTING, UNDERLINED THE POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE MDC WIN--MAYBE EVEN CONTROL OF PARLIAMENT--IF THEY CAN STYMIE ZANU-PF ATTEMPTS TO SUPPRESS THEM. END SUMMARY. BEGINNING ANALYSIS WITH THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN ¶2. (C) THERE ARE CLEARLY MANY IMPONDERABLES AT THIS STAGE OF THE ELECTION CYCLE. EVEN A SHORT LIST MUST INCLUDE: WHEN THE VOTE WILL BE HELD; THE DEGREE OF OPENNESS WITH WHICH IT WILL BE CONDUCTED; CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02236 01 OF 03 261350Z THE EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT CAMPAIGN TO USE VIOLENCE TO INTIMIDATE RURAL SUPPORTERS OF THE OPPOSITION PARTY, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC); THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INDEPENDENT PARTIES AND PRESS; AND POSSIBLE GERRYMANDERING FAVORING ZANU-PF IN THE ONGOING PROCESS OF DELIMITING VOTING DISTRICTS. NONETHELESS, SOME OUTLINES OF POSSIBLE ELECTION RESULTS CAN BE DISCERNED. ¶3. (C) FOR OUR PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS, WE HAVE CLASSIFIED THE CURRENT 120 PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES BY WHAT PROVINCE THEY ARE IN AND THEIR DEGREE OF URBANIZATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THIS DATABASE AND ADD ADDITIONAL VARIABLES. AS A BACKGROUND NOTE, UNDER THE CURRENT CONSTITUTION THE PRESIDENT APPOINTS 30 MEMBERS TO PARLIAMENT, WITH THE RESULT THAT TO ACHIEVE A MAJORITY, AN OPPOSITION PARTY WILL HAVE TO SEE AT LEAST 76 MEMBERS ELECTED. ASSUMING MDC URBAN SUPPORT ¶4. (C) BECAUSE THE IMPONDERABLES SURROUNDING THE ELECTION ARE SO LARGE, OUR ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME IS NECESSARILY VERY ROUGH. WE HAVE CLASSIFIED CONSTITUENCIES INTO EITHER RURAL OR NON-RURAL (INCLUDING CITIES, TOWNS, AND SUBURBS). AS A FIRST CUT AT LOOKING AT POSSIBLE ELECTION RESULTS, WE ASSUME THE MDC WILL LARGELY CARRY THE URBAN AREAS AND THE RULING ZANU-PF WILL LARGELY TAKE THE RURAL AREAS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02236 01 OF 03 261350Z ¶5. (C) UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MDC WILL TAKE 90 PERCENT OF CURRENT NON-RURAL CONSTITUENCIES WHILE ZANU-PF TAKES 90 PERCENT OF THE RURAL AREAS, MDC WOULD GARNER ABOUT 46 SEATS AND ZANU-PF WOULD TAKE ABOUT 74. IF MDC MANAGES TO HOLD ITS URBAN BASE AT THE 90 PERCENT LEVEL AND INCREASE ITS APPEAL TO 15 PERCENT OF THE RURAL CONSTITUENCIES, ITS SEAT TOTAL WOULD GO TO 50, AND ZANU-PF WOULD HOLD 70. IMPORTANT VOTING DISTRICTS NOT SET ¶6. (C) ONE OF THE MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCKS TO SCHEDULING THE ELECTION HAS BEEN THE NEED FOR THE DELIMITATION COMMISSION, UNDER SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, TO COMPLETE A REVISION OF THE PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES. IN A RECENT CONVERSATION (REFTEL),HE TOLD US HE THOUGHT IT POSSIBLE THAT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DELIMITATION EXERCISE, WHICH SAW AN INCREASE IN URBAN CONSTITUENCIES AT THE EXPENSE OF RURAL ONES, WOULD BE REPEAT ED. AS A PRELIMINARY CUT AT WHAT RESULTS. CONFIDENTIAL