GERMAN AMBASSADOR ON MUGABE'S STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002230 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: GERMAN AMBASSADOR ON MUGABE'S STRATEGY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02230 01 OF 02 261126Z REF: HARARE 2222 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR 1.5 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. IN AN APRIL 24 MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, GERMAN AMBASSADOR FRITZ FLIMM PASSED INFORMATION ABOUT AN ONGOING FARM OCCUPATION THAT HAD SEEN UPWARDS OF A THOUSAND SO-CALLED "WAR VETERANS" THREATEN A GERMAN NATIONAL AND OTHER FARM RESIDENTS WHILE OCCUPYING A LARGE: COMMERCIAL FARM NEAR HARARE. FLIMM THOUGHT IT DEBATABLE WHETHER PRESIDENT MUGABE WANTS A SOLUTION TO THE LAND CRISIS, SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE HIS POLITICAL CAMPAIGN THEME FOR THE UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. IN KEEPING WITH THIS, HE SUSPECTED THE UPCOMING CONFERENCE IN LONDON MAY BE DESIGNED TO FAIL. HE ALSO THOUGHT THE EU WOULD OFFER TO SEND ELECTION OBSERVERS, BUT THE FINAL DECISION WILL REST WITH THE GOZ WHEN IT CHOOSES WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE OFFER. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) AMBASSADOR FLIMM CALLED C)N AMBASSADOR MCDONALD TO PASS ALONG INFORMATIC)N ON AN ONGOING FARM OCCUPATION NEAR HARARE THAT, BECAUSE THE FARM MANAGER WAS BEING HELD AGAINST H]-S WILL, WAS GARNERING SIGNIFICANT MEDIA ATTENTION. HE ALSO SOUGHT A READOUT ON THE RECENT S/E WOLPE VISIT. DCM AND TDY POLOFF (NOTETAKER) ALSO ATTENDED. ¶3. (C) FLIMM HAD BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02230 01 OF 02 261126Z FARM MANAGER DURING THE OCCUPATION BECAUSE THE OWNER IS A GERMAN NATIONAL. HE SAID THE SITUATION ON THE 20,000 HECTARE FARM (THE LARGEST TOBACCO FARM IN THE COUNTRY) HAD DEVELOPED ON THE MORNING OF APRIL 23, WHEN THE RESIDENT MANAGER HAD CALLED FOR ASSISTANCE WHEN HE SAW TWO COLUMNS OF FARM OCCUPIERS APPROACHING THE MAIN PROPERTY. THEY WERE USING EQUIPMENT THEY HAD STOLEN FROM NEARBY OCCUPIED FARMS AS TRANSPORTATION. AT THE HEIGHT OF THE OCCUPATION, ABOUT 1,000 SO-CALLED WAR VETERANS WERE PRESENT. ¶4. (C) THE FARM MANAGER ESTIMATED THAT ABOUT HALF OF THE OCCUPIERS WERE NOT PARTICIPATING VOLUNTARILY. HE ALSO THOUGHT THAT MOST OF THEM WERE NOT FROM THE AREA AROUND THE FARM, BUT HAD INSTEAD COME FROM THE NORTHERN REGION OF ZIMBABWE. ¶5. (C) AMBASSADOR FLIMM AND THE FARM MANAGER HAD BEEN CONFIDENT THE OCCUPATION WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR WORRY BECAUSE THE AMBASSADOR HAD PREVIOUS ASSURANCES FROM MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR AND ZANU-PF HEAVYWEIGHT BORDER GEZI THAT IT WOULD BE PEACEFUL. WHEN THE OCCUPATION TURNED VIOLENT AND THE MANAGER AND OTHER FARM RESIDENTS WERE BEING THREATENED, AMBASSADOR FLIMM HAD BEEN ABLE TO BRING THE SITUATION UNDER CONTROL BY AGAIN APPEALING TO GEZI. IN THE END, THE WAR VETS LEFT A TOKEN HANDFUL OF OCCUPIERS ON TH|: FARM AND HAD TAKEN ADDITIONAL FARM EQUIPMENT TO TRANSPORT THEMSELVES TO OTHER PROPERTIES IN THE AREA. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02230 01 OF 02 261126Z ¶6. (C) REFLECTING ON THIS OCCUPATION AND THE RECENT COURSE OF EVENTS NATIONWIDE, FLIMM OPINED THAT IT IS HIGHLY DEBATABLE WHETHER PRESIDENT MUGABE ACTUALLY WANTS A RESOLUTION TO THE LAND OCCUPATION CRISIS. FLIMM SEES THE OCCUPATIONS, THE ATTENDANT PUBLICITY, THE INTIMIDATION OF RURAL VOTERS, AND MUGABE'S ABILITY TO PROJECT A TOUGH PUBLIC IMAGE, AS ALL PART OF A PACKAGE THAT MUGABE, FOR NOW AT LEAST, FINDS TO HIS LIKING. IN ESSENCE, THE CRISIS HAS BEEN AN ELECTION PLOY BY MUGABE. ¶7. (C) FLIMM THOUGHT IT LIKELY THAT MUGABE INTENDS FOR THE COMING LONDON CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN A ZIMBABWEAN MINISTERIAL TROIKA AND BRITAIN TO FAIL. AS FLIMM SEES IT, A WASHOUT AT THE LONDON CONFERENCE GIVES MUGABE TWO THINGS: HE CAN CONTINUE TO PORTRAY THE BRITISH AS INTRANSIGENT, AND HE KEEPS THE FARM OCCUPIERS, WITH THEIR VALUABLE POLITICAL MUSCLE, ON THE FARMS WHERE THEY CAN HELP DELIVER ZANU-PF VOTES. IN SHORT, FLIMM THINKS MUGABE WANTS TO KEEP UP THE PRESSURE WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF SMASHING HIS MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4013 PAGE 01 HARARE 02230 02 OF 02 261127Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 USIE-00 SA-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 5005B3 261128Z /38 R 261130Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5860 INFO NSC WASHDC WHITE HOUSE WASHDC SECDEF WASHINGTON DC DEPTTREAS WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002230 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: GERMAN AMBASSADOR ON MUGABE'S STRATEGY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02230 02 OF 02 261127Z THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). ¶8. (C) FLIMM ALSO INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE EU IS IN FAVOR OF SENDING OBSERVE:RS FOR THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. THE EU WILL MAKE THE OFFER TO THE GOZ, WHICH WILL THEN HAVE THE FINAL DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE OBSERVERS. ¶9. (C) FLIMM SOUGHT INFORMATION FROM THE AMBASSADOR ABOUT THE RECENT SERIE:S OF MEETINGS BETWEEN THE AMBASSADOR, S/E WOLPE:, AND GOZ OFFICIALS INCLUDING MUGABE. THE AMBASSADOR PROVIDED A READOUT OF THE MEETINGS HE HAD PARTICIPATED IN ALONG THE LINES OF REFTEL. COMMENT ¶10. (C) WE BELIEVE THAT AT THIS TIME, MUGABE HAS LITTLE REAL INTEREST IN SOLVING THE LAND CRISIS. IT IS, AT BOTTOM, A POLITICAL MOVE HE HAS ACQUIESCED IN IF NOT DESIGNED. T'HE ABILITY OF GOVERNOR GEZI TO TURN OFF VIOLENCE APPARENTLY AT WILL IS ANOTHER SIGN, IF ONE WERE NEEDED, THAT THE GOVERNMENT CAN INDEED CONTROL THE COURSE OF EVENTS HERE WHEN IT SO DESIRES. MOREOVER, THE PEOPLE SUFFERING THE HARD KNOCKS ARE MUGABE'S POLITICAL OPPONENTS. ¶11. (C) IT ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL WE HAVE SEEN THAT MUGABE WISHES FOR THE LONDON CONFERENCE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02230 02 OF 02 261127Z WITH BRITAIN TO FAIL. SUCCESS WOULD BRING HIM INTERNATIONAL APPROBATION, BUT WOULD STYMIE HIM IN THE ONE CLEAR COURSE HE HAS CHARTED IN TRYING TO APPEAL TO THE ZIMBABWEAN VOTER--AND AT THE MOMENT POLITICAL SURVIVAL OUTWEIGHS ALL OTHER CONCERNS FOR MUGABE. IF THE TALKS DO NOT SUCCEED, HE CAN CONTINUE TO BLAME OTHERS FOR HIS COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS, RAIL AGAINST THE COLONIAL PAST, AND KEEP THE POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE WAR VETERANS OCCUPIED WITH A TASK THEY APPARENTLY FIND TO THEIR LIKING. IN THE EVENT THE TALKS DO PRODUCE SOME SETTLEMENT, MUGABE WILL CROW ABOUT HIS SUCCESS, BUT WE STILL WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE RAPID PROGRESS ON THE GROUND TOWARD PACIFYING THE FARM OCCUPIERS, A MOVE THAT WOULD REQUIRE HIM TO THINK OF A NEW ELECTION STRATEGY. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >