S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002222 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02222 01 OF 04 251443Z STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG USUN/W FOR ORR STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT REFS: A) HARARE 2198 B) HARARE 2200 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD, REASONS 1.5 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE HOSTED A TWO HOUR AND TWENTY MINUTE MEETING WITH THE USG DELEGATION AT HIS RESIDENCE IN HARARE ON 22 APRIL. S/E WOLPE, AMB MCDONALD, SPECIAL ADVISOR PRENDERGAST, LT. COL. GADDIS, AND ECONOFF PROKOP ATTENDED. S/E WOLPE REINFORCED THE USG CONCERN THAT THERE BE GOOD FAITH COMPLIANCE WITH THE KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE AND FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA, INCLUDING THE COMPLETE RESTORATION OF DRC SOVEREIGNTY. HE ALSO ASKED IF MUGABE WOULD CONSIDER, IN PRINCIPLE, A COMMITMENT TO CEASE THE RE-SUPPLY AND TRAINING OF NON-STATE ACTORS AS A CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE THAT COULD BE LINKED TO SPECIFIC COMMITMENTS MADE BY RWANDA AND UGANDA ON FURTHER OR ACCELERATED REDEPLOYMENT AND WITHDRAWAL. MUGABE SAID THAT HE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02222 01 OF 04 251443Z WOULD CONSIDER SUCH MEASURES IF HE COULD BE SURE THAT, IN RETURN, RWANDA AND UGANDA WOULD CEASE THEIR SUPPORT FOR THEIR REBEL CLIENTS. END SUMMARY. PURPOSE OF THE DELEGATION'S VISIT ¶2. (C) S/E WOLPE INFORMED PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT HE HAD COME, AT THE REQUEST OF PRESIDENT CLINTON, TO REINFORCE THE USG CONCERN THAT THERE BE GOOD FAITH COMPLIANCE WITH THE KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE BY ALL PARTIES AND TO EXPLORE WAYS OF ACCELERATING THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT WITH REGIONAL LEADERS. ¶3. (C) ONE OF THE DELEGATION'S GOALS IS TO GAIN AN UNDERSTANDING OF EACH PARTY'S BOTTOM LINE SECURITY REQUIREMENTS IN ORDER TO HELP CRAFT INITIATIVES THAT EACH SIDE COULD TAKE THAT WOULD INCREASE TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND ENABLE THE SIGNATORIES TO ACCELERATE THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. ¶4. (C) S/E WOLPE ASSURED PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT THE USG'S DEDICATION TO LUSAKA INCLUDED THE FULL RESTORATION OF CONGOLESE SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, ADDING THAT "THIS IS THE MESSAGE I WILL BE CARRYING TO RWANDA AND UGANDA." ¶5. (C) S/W WOLPE FURTHER EXPLAINED THAT IT IS THE USG'S VIEW THAT THE EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES ARE LOOKING SERIOUSLY FOR A WAY OUT OF THE CONGO. FROM THE USG PERSPECTIVE, THEREFORE, THE TIME IS RIPE TO ADVANCE THE PEACE PROCESS. HE NOTED THAT THE DELEGATION WAS ENCOURAGED BY THE REPORT IT HAD RECEIVED FROM ZIMBABWE'S MINISTERS OF JUSTICE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS CONCERNING THE RECENT VICTORIA FALLS MEETING BUT WOULD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02222 01 OF 04 251443Z PARTICULARLY WELCOME PRESIDENT MUGABE'S ACCOUNT OF THE PROCEEDINGS. BACKGROUND OF THE VIC FALLS MEETING ¶6. (C) ACCORDING TO PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE IDEA FOR THE MEETING CAME UP IN A CONVERSATION HE HAD IN CAIRO INVOLVING HIMSELF, CHISSANO, DOS SANTOS, AND MUSEVENI. NOTE. EXPLAINING THE ORIGINS OF THIS DISCUSSION, MUGABE SAID HE HAD FORTUITOUSLY STUMBLED UPON WHAT WAS IN FACT AN EXCHANGE BETWEEN MUSEVENI AND DOS SANTOS THAT WAS BEING FACILITATED BY CHISSANO. END NOTE.) MUGABE SAID THAT HE ASKED "WHY CAN'T WE MAKE UP OUR OWN MINDS (TO GET OUT OF THE CONGO)? WE ARE 'BIG PEOPLE'; WHY MUST WE WAIT FOR A STICK FROM THE UN TO DRIVE US FORWARD?" CHISSANO AND MUSEVENI AGREED AND CHISSANO PROPOSED AN INFORMAL MEETING OF THE EXTERNAL LUSAKA SIGNATORIES. THE PURPOSE OF THE MEETING WOULD BE TO FIND A WAY FOR THE REGIONAL ACTORS TO IMPLEMENT THE CEASE-FIRE PROCESS THEMSELVES IN THE EVENT THAT THE UN DEPLOYMENT WAS DELAYED. THE LEADERS SUBSEQUENTLY AGREED TO MEET IN VIC FALLS ON 21 APRIL. UNFORTUNATELY, THREE DAYS BEFORE THE MEETING DATE, DOS SANTOS BACKED OUT, ARGUING THAT ALL OF THE LEADERS HAD BEEN INVITED TO A MALARIA CONFERENCE IN ABUJA TWO DAYS LATER, AND IT WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT TO MAKE ABUJA THE VENUE OF THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0620 PAGE 01 HARARE 02222 02 OF 04 251444Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 OIGO-02 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /013W -------------- 4FAA16 251444Z /38 P 251448Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5847 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY KINSHASA AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY KIGALI AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY PARIS C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002222 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02222 02 OF 04 251444Z STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG USUN/W FOR ORR STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT DRC DISCUSSION AS WELL. PAUL KAGAME, TOO, WAS UNABLE TO COME BECAUSE OF HIS PENDING INAUGURATION; HOWEVER, HE SENT HIS FOREIGN MINISTER AND EMMANUEL GASANA. MUGABE'S ACCOUNT OF THE MEETING ¶7. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE REPORTED THAT THE MEETING WAS "POSITIVE, STRAIGHTFORWARD, HONEST." IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE JMC/PC KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT, THE LEADERS AGREED TO COMMIT THEMSELVES TO HONOR THE 30-KILOMETER DMZ. THEY ALSO AGREED TO ESTABLISH A REGIONAL MONITORING MECHANISM COMPOSED OF JOINT TEAMS FROM EACH PARTY TO SUPERVISE THE CEASE-FIRE IN THE EVENT THAT THE UN DEPLOYMENT IS DELAYED. THE MEANS TO IMPLEMENT THE SELF-MONITORING REGIME - TRANSPORTATION, FUNDING, ETC. -- ARE YET TO BE WORKED OUT. ¶8. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE INSISTED THAT THE KEY TO MAINTAINING FAITH IN THE SELF-MONITORING APPROACH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02222 02 OF 04 251444Z ACTIONS ON THE GROUND. IN TIME, WITH CONCRETE PROGRESS IN THE DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES, CONFIDENCE WILL GROW. HOWEVER, HE ADDED A NOTE OF CAUTION: "WE WILL STILL NEED TO RESERVE A LITTLE OF OURSELVES IN CASE THE OTHER SIDE DOES WHAT WE FEAR THEY WILL DO. IF THEY DO NOT (BREAK THEIR COMMITMENTS),THEN BOTH SIDES WILL BEGIN TO RELAX." ¶9. (C) THE PRESIDENT ENDED HIS DESCRIPTION OF THE CONGO PORTION OF THE VIC FALLS MEETING BY SAYING "NOW WE HAVE TO INFORM CHILUBA ABOUT THE MEETING THAT HAPPENED IN HIS BACK YARD." HE ADDED, JOKINGLY, THAT "CHILUBA WILL BE WONDERING WHAT IS GOING ON." MUGABE THEN TURNED TO THE SECOND SUBJECT DISCUSSED AT VIC FALLS - ZIMBABWE'S LAND REFORM ISSUE AND POLITICAL CRISIS - AND LAUNCHED INTO A VERY LENGTHY AND DETAILED EXPOSITION OF GOZ VIEWS AND ACTIONS (REPORTED SEPTEL). BACK TO THE DRC ¶10. (C) RETURNING TO THE SUBJECT OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS, S/E WOLPE ASKED THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WHAT THF USG COULD DO AT THIS POINT TO ACCELERATE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. SPECIFICALLY, WOLPE ASKED, WOULD IT BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DRC AND ITS ALLIES TO COMMIT TO ACTIONS THAT WOULD MITIGATE RWANDAN AND UGANDAN SECURITY CONCERNS, IN EXCHANGE FOR AN UGANDAN AND RWANDAN COMMITMENT TO A MORE RAPID REDEPLOYMENT AND WITHDRAWAL OF THEIR FORCES. ¶11. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE REPLIED THAT, FOR THEIR PART, RWANDA AND UGANDA COULD BEST DEMONSTRATE THEIR COMMITMENT BY AN ACTUAL WITHDRAWAL FROM THE DRC. HE FURTHER SAID THAT RWANDA, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02222 02 OF 04 251444Z UGANDA, AND BURUNDI COULD BEST GUARANTEE THEIR SECURITY BY DEDICATING THEMSELVES TO GOOD RELATIONS WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS AND AMONG THEIR OWN POPULATIONS. ¶12. (C) AS FOR THE NON-STATE ACTORS, MUGABE INSISTED THAT HUNTING THEM DOWN WOULD BE IMPRACTICAL AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN THEIR ELIMINATION. HE ADDED THAT THE NON-STATE ACTORS WERE RELATIVELY FEW IN COMPARISON TO THE "HUGE ARMIES" OF THE REBELS. HE DID ACKNOWLEDGE THAT "BOTH GROUPS MUST BE MADE TOOTHLESS" AND POINTED OUT THE NEED FOR AN EFFECTIVE REINTEGRATION PROGRAM. ¶13. (C) S/E WOLPE AGAIN RETURNED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DRC AND ITS ALLIES AGREEING TO CEASE RE-SUPPLY AND TRAINING OF THE EX-FAR/INTERAHAMWE IN RETURN FOR A RECIPROCAL COMMITMENT BY RWANDA AND UGANDA TO ACCELERATED REDFPLOYMENT AND WITHDRAWAL. THIS TIME MUGABE REPLIED THAT HE WOULD CONSIDER MAKING SUCH A COMMITMENT IF IT WOULD CONVINCE RWANDA AND UGANDA TO WITHDRAW FROM THE DRC. HE ADDED THAT HE WOULD ALSO WANT RWANDA AND UGANDA TO CEASE THEIR TRAINING AND RESUPPLY OF THEIR REBEL CLIENTS. MUGABE ON RELATIONS WITH RWANDA, UGANDA, BURUNDI CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0622 PAGE 01 HARARE 02222 03 OF 04 251444Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 OIGO-02 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /013W -------------- 4FAA22 251444Z /38 P 251448Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5848 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY KINSHASA AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY KIGALI AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY PARIS C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002222 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02222 03 OF 04 251444Z STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG USUN/W FOR ORR STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT ¶14. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT WHILE RELATIONS WITH UGANDA HAD IMPROVED, THEY WERE STILL DIFFICULT WITH RWANDA. HE SAID THAT THIS WAS PERHAPS DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT CONTACT. HE NOTED THAT THE RWANDAN FOREIGN MTNISTER INFORMED THOSE AT VIC FALLS THAT KAGAME, AS PRESIDENT, HAD COMMITTED HIMSELF TO BE BOUND BY ANY DECISION MADE BY THE LUSAKA SIGNATORIES. MUGABE ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT KAGAME APPEARED TO BE THE ONE WHO WANTS TO CONTINUE THE WAR. ¶15. (C) S/E WOLPE TOLD PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT HE HAS BEGUN TO SENSE AN EVOLUTION IN RWANDA'S THINKING. THE RWANDANS NOW APPEAR WILLING TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS WITH REGARD TO THE CULPABILITY OF EXFAR/INTERAHAMWE FORCES IN THE DRC FOR THE GENOCIDE. THE RWANDANS, HE SAID, HAVE ALSO EXPRESSED THEIR WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL MONITORING OF THE REINTEGRATION PROCESS. S/E WOLPE ASSURED MUGABE THAT THE USG WOULD WORK WITH THE RWANDANS TO DETERMINE THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND TO ENSURE THAT IT IS REASONABLE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02222 03 OF 04 251444Z ¶16. (C) MUGABE COMMENTED THAT IF THE POLITICAL SYSTEMS IN RWANDA AND BURUNDI COULD NOT ACCOMMODATE THE RETURN OF EX-COMBATANTS, AND IF THERE ARE NO PROVISIONS FOR REINTEGRATION, THEIR CITIZENS WILL NOT WANT TO RETURN. HOWEVER, IF A REHABILITATION MECHANISM EXISTS, THOSE WHO CAN RETURN WILL DO SO. DEALING WITH KABILA ¶17. (C) S/E WOLPE TOLD MUGABE OF USG EFFORTS TO CONVINCE KABILA THAT HE COULD BENEFIT POLITICALLY BY COOPERATING WITH THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE'S FACILITATOR AND ADHERING TO THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. HE ASKED MUGABE FOR HIS GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF KABILA'S WILLINGNESS TO NOW BE BOUND BY THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. ¶18. (C) MUGABE REPLIED THAT KARILA WAS DOING HIS BEST TO ADHERE TO THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH HE IS DISAPPOINTED THAT IT DID NOT CONTAIN AN EXPLICIT DEMAND FOR THE IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDA AND UGANDA. REGARDING THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, MUGABE SAID THAT KABILA HAD COMPLAINED THAT LUSAKA WAS RESTRICTING HIM FROM ORGANIZING POIJTICAL SUPPORT AMONG HIS OWN PEOPLE. MUGABE SAID HE HAD EXPLAINED TO KABILA THAT THERE WAS NO RESTRICTION ON HIS ABILITY TO CONSULT WITH OTHERS, BUT THAT HE SHOULD DO NOTHING THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN EFFORT TO SUPPLANT PRESIDENT MASIRE'S ROLE AS THE FACILITATOR OF THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE. HE SAID THAT HE HAD SUCCEEDED IN DISSUADING KABILA FROM PROCEEDING WITH HIS PLANS TO HOLD PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02222 03 OF 04 251444Z ¶19. (C) MUGABE CLAIMED THAT THE LACK OF COOPERATION MASIRE EXPERIENCED DURING HIS FIRST VISIT WAS PARTLY THE FAULT OF REGIONAL LEADERS WHO HAD PROVIDED NO SUPPORT TO MASIRE. FROM KABILA'S OBSERVATIONS, IT APPEARED THAT THE IACK OF COOPERATION DURING HIS SECOND VISIT TO THE DRC WAS DUE TO LACK OF COORDINATION: KABILA CLAIMED NO ONE KNEW MASIRE WAS COMING OR WHAT HIS AGENDA WOULD BE. MUGABE HIMSELF THOUGHT THAT MASIRE GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT HE WAS TAKING HIS INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE UN AS OPPOSED TO THE OAU AND HE FELT THAT THIS WAS INAPPROPRIATE. ¶20. (C) MUGABE ASKED WOLPE WHY MASIRE WAS SO DEPENDENT ON THE UN FOR STAFF AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT. S/E WOLPE EXPLAINED THAT IT WAS THE OAU SECRETARY-GENERAL WHO HAD INDICATED THE OAU LACKED SUFFICIENT CAPACITY AND HAD URGED A SIGNIFICANT UN ROLE. MUGABE OBJECTED SHARPLY - SAYING PERHAPS THERE WAS A PROBLEM AT THE OAU THAT NEEDED TO BE ADDRESSED- MUGABE THEN SAID THAT HE HAD HEARD, TO HIS CONSIDERABLE DISTRESS, THAT MASIRE HAD TAKEN ON A CANADIAN AS A TOP ADVLSOR. THIS WAS WRONG, HE ASSERTED. THIS IS SOMETHING THE OAU SHOULD BE HANDLING. WOLPE THEN EXPLAINED - TO MUGA8E'S OBVIOUS ANNOYANCE -- THAT THE CANADIANS HAD PLAYED A ROLE IN HELPING MASIRE DEVELOP A PLAN AND BUDGET, AND THAT THE BRITS HAD RESPONDED TO MASIRE'S DESPERATE NEED FOR ASSISTANCE BY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0623 PAGE 01 HARARE 02222 04 OF 04 251444Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-01 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-01 OIGO-02 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /013W -------------- 4FAA2B 251444Z /38 P 251448Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5849 INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KAMPALA AMEMBASSY KINSHASA AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY KIGALI AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY PARIS C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002222 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02222 04 OF 04 251444Z STATE FOR AF A/S SUSAN RICE, DAS POWELL USUN FOR AMBASSADORS HOLBROOKE AND SODERBERG USUN/W FOR ORR STATE PASS DOD FOR OSD/PKHA/JSCHEAR NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH AND ERIC SCHWARTZ LONDON FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CG ZI SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE DISCUSSES DRC DISENGAGEMENT AND DISARMAMENT WITH ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT SECONDING AN ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER TO SET UP HIS BOTSWANA OFFICE. HOWEVER, EVEN NOW, WOLPE NOTED, MASIRE HAS VIRTUALLY NO ONE WITH THE APPROPRIATE EXPERTISE WORKING WITH HIM. MASIRE WAS MAKING EVERY EFFORT, WORKING WITH THE OAU AND THE UN, TO RECRUIT APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL, PARTICULARLY AFRICAN PERSONNEL. AT THE END OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, WOLPE TOLD MUGABE, THE FACILITATION EFFORT WOULD REQUIRE ASSISTANCE AND SUPPORT FROM MANY INTERNATIONAL SOURCES. MORE ON ACCELERATING IMPLEMENTATION ¶21. (C) IN A CONCLUDING COMMENT, SPECIAL ADVISOR PRENDERGAST OBSERVED THAT THE PURPOSE OF S/E WOLPE'S CURRENT MISSION APPEARED TO TRACK CLOSELY THAT OF THE VIC FALLS MEETING: TO BUILD ON THE MOMENTUM OF KAMPALA. HE NOTED THAT WHILE THE DEVIL MAY BE IN THE DETAILS, IN THIS INSTANCE SALVATION COULD EXIST IN THE SPECIFICS. SPECIFIC MECHANISMS COULD UNLOCK THE ABILITY OF THE SIGNATORY PARTIES TO MOVE FORWARD MORE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02222 04 OF 04 251444Z RAPIDLY IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LUSAKA. FOR EXAMPLE, RECIPROCAL COMMITMENTS REGARDING REDEPLOYMENT AND THE DEMOBILIZATION OF ARMED-GROUPS COULD ACCELERATE PLANNING AND DEEPEN COMMITMENTS TO WITHDRAWAL BY KEY SIGNATORIES. BROADER CONCEPTUAL AGREEMENTS THAT ARE IN EACH PARTY'S INTEREST WILL HELP CONSOLIDATE AGREEMENTS OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN MADE IN KAMPALA. THE USG HAD FURTHER IDEAS ON THESE ISSUES THAT WE LOOKED FORWARD TO DISCUSSING WITH HIM, WITH ZIMBABWE'S REPRESENTATIVES ON THE JMC/PC, AND WITH THE OTHER LUSAKA SIGNATORIES. COMMENTS ¶22. (C) MUGABE HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED HIS SEARCH FOR A WAY OUT OF THE CONGO. BUT HIS EXIT WILL NOT BE PAVED WITH COMPROMISES THAT WOULD CALL INTO QUESTION HIS GOVERNMENT'S REASONS FOR INTERVENING IN THE FIRST PLACE. HE APPEARS INTERESTED IN THE NOTION OF PACKAGING MORE SPECIFIC COMMITMENTS REGARDING THE DISARMAMENT OF THE ARMED GROUPS WITH ACCELERATED REDEPLOYMENTS AND WITHDRAWALS. WHILE HE REMAINS DEEPLY SUSPICIOUS ABOUT KAGAME'S INTENTIONS, MUGABE RECOGNIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF ADDRESSING RWANDAN SECURITY CONCERNS. ¶23. (C) MUGABE IS NOT READY TO ABANDON KABILA, OR TO EVEN BEGIN THE DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVES - AT LEAST WITH THE USG. HOWEVER, HE, TOGETHER WITH HIS NAMIBIAN AND ANGOLAN ALLIES, WILL INCREASE THEIR PRESSURE ON KABILA TO IMPLEMENT THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY REGARDING CEASE-FIRE COMMITMENTS AND THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE. HIS DESIRE TO MOVE FORWARD ON WITHDRAWAL WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY KEEP HIM FOCUSED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02222 04 OF 04 251444Z ON THE NEED TO KEEP KABILA IN LINE, AND PROVIDES OPENINGS TO EXPLORE WITH RWANDA AND UGANDA WHAT THEY ARE WILLING TO DO TO EXPEDITE FINAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LUSAKA CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT. END COMMENT. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >